what's going on with the Thai Baht

[lannarebirth]

12 hours ago, Mac98 said:

That would be if it was returned under the new tax rate, but I believe off shore funds will be given a tax holiday of 5%, a common strategy for offshore funds, greatly reducing their tax payment to $11 billion.

 5.25% rate was the Bush "one time" remedy for the Clinton Treasury Dept. tax dodge. It will be between 11% and 15% this time around.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/business/taxes-offshore-repatriation.html

[Mac98]

On 1/14/2018 at 1:46 PM, lannarebirth said:

 5.25% rate was the Bush "one time" remedy for the Clinton Treasury Dept. tax dodge. It will be between 11% and 15% this time around.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/business/taxes-offshore-repatriation.html

11% is still half of what they should pay under new rate of 21%, which they should be happy with as that would still be way down from the 35% they were dodging. If I didn't pay my taxes would I get to settle for one-third? Or would I get hit with interest and huge penalties? 

[simoh1490]

Interesting to read that the Thai bond market is now weighted very much in favour of long-term bonds at 76% with the remainder at under one year. mostly this seems to be foreigners buying up emerging market debt, another stressor on THB but seems at odds with the bond market in general where short duration is the trend.

 

Even more Interesting though is that locals investing in Foreign Investment Funds (FIF's) has now reached 1.1 trillion baht, more than the total value of all Thai bonds purchased by foreign investors. Unanswered questions on this point concern where those purchases are being made, on or offshore and in what currency. Presumably, these are offshore funds as now permitted by the fairly recent change in BOT regs. to allow exporters to invest their foreign earnings in offshore investments rather than being forced to exchange them for THB, in order to prevent further upwards strain on THB. Presumably, these are also foreign currency investments rather than investments using THB. 

 

If the above is correct, at some point those FIF's will be repatriated and converted to THB and/or the earnings from them will be and that will have a sizeable impact on the value of THB, if there's ever a rush for the exits from Western markets. What that also means is that the true value of THB is being understated by some THB 1.1 trillion since those funds are not yet converted into THB but are still owned by local Thai's.

 

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[lannarebirth]

59 minutes ago, Mac98 said:

11% is still half of what they should pay under new rate of 21%, which they should be happy with as that would still be way down from the 35% they were dodging. If I didn't pay my taxes would I get to settle for one-third? Or would I get hit with interest and huge penalties? 

I couldn't agree more. In fact, if it were up to me they'd be paying penalties on the money they did not repatriate that is in excess of their legitimate overseas expenses.

Edited January 16, 2018 by lannarebirth

[Berkshire]

A Thai friend of mine who's an expert on Thai finance indicated that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is at record highs because of foreign money pouring into Thailand....another reason why the THB has been strong lately.  As for the USD, the recent massive corporate tax cut is projected to raise the US national debt significantly....which is not good news for the dollar.

[morrobay]

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I

Even more Interesting though is that locals investing in Foreign Investment Funds (FIF's) has now reached 1.1 trillion baht, more than the total value of all Thai bonds purchased by foreign investors.  

 

If the above is correct, at some point those FIF's will be repatriated and converted to THB 

 

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So is it possible that these local investors  have the ability and are working the exchange rate system here ? 

Using strong baht to buy foreign and then later using foreign to buy a weak baht.  

Edited January 16, 2018 by morrobay

[simoh1490]

37 minutes ago, morrobay said:

So is it possible that these local investors  have the ability and are working the exchange rate system here ? 

Using strong baht to buy foreign and then later using foreign to buy a weak baht.  

Yes in theory, although BOT still has control over those flows so it will be difficult for them to try and manipulate the Baht. Also, the Baht is expected to be a one way bet hence there's little point in manipulating what is already strong.

[travelling wilbury]

 

"MO once you drive Thailand especially if you are lucky to meet some educated Thai people and some village Thai people, the more you recognize the BS daily posts by some sad expats who don’t like their life and blame their personal misery on Thailand and Thai people. "

 

I will be the first to say if you dont like thailand f☆☆k off back where you came from quickly and quietly  but we have to face it thailand is far from perfect  but where is ?

 As intruders  do we have the right to tell thai people how to run their country  comment maybe  advise maybe  but thats it....otherwise there are plenty of flights out of the kingdom .......

 But driving here  is another matter   ??????

[Kwasaki]

13 hours ago, travelling wilbury said:

I will be the first to say if you dont like thailand f☆☆k off back where you came from quickly and quietly 

Already been said dunno lost count. ?

 

Your opinion on what's going on with the Thai baht is. ? ?

[MarcIssan]

Take a look at this video about 3 factors that affect the value of the dollar.

 

For those who don't read, turn your volume up and relax.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/factors-drive-american-dollar.asp

[mogandave]

It’s fluctuating

[mogandave]

Wish I was idiot enough to become filthy rich and be elected POTUS.

And be banging porn stars and Playboy models...

[stud858]

On 1/16/2018 at 11:31 AM, Berkshire said:

A Thai friend of mine who's an expert on Thai finance indicated that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is at record highs because of foreign money pouring into Thailand....another reason why the THB has been strong lately.  As for the USD, the recent massive corporate tax cut is projected to raise the US national debt significantly....which is not good news for the dollar.

I find it strange that money is pouring into thailand considering the political climate. I think its the otherway around. Its like the banks are lowering the rate more and more to entice investers. Buy thb at 32 and next month it will be 30 so you can sell back and make some money.

But nobody is buying thb except the lonely traveller. So they lower it again. Its not supposed to work like that but since when do we trust finance agencies.

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, stud858 said:

I find it strange that money is pouring into thailand considering the political climate. I think its the otherway around. Its like the banks are lowering the rate more and more to entice investers. Buy thb at 32 and next month it will be 30 so you can sell back and make some money.

But nobody is buying thb except the lonely traveller. So they lower it again. Its not supposed to work like that but since when do we trust finance agencies.

So Thai exporters who get paid in USD are not buying Baht when they exchange their export bills and tourists are not buying THB when record numbers of them visit......nobody's buying Baht, really!

[mogandave]

It hasn’t been at 30 since 2013..

[janclaes47]

8 minutes ago, mogandave said:

It hasn’t been at 30 since 2013..

Why you not stop trolling, you're not even remotely funny.

[mogandave]

Why you not stop trolling, you're not even remotely funny.

Why you not make me tough guy?

You trolling not me you troll!!

[janclaes47]

Just now, mogandave said:

 

Why you not make me tough guy?

You trolling not me you troll!!

 

Apologies, I read, it HAS been at 30 since 2013.

 

My mistake.

 

[Berkshire]

8 hours ago, stud858 said:

I find it strange that money is pouring into thailand considering the political climate. I think its the otherway around. Its like the banks are lowering the rate more and more to entice investers. Buy thb at 32 and next month it will be 30 so you can sell back and make some money.

But nobody is buying thb except the lonely traveller. So they lower it again. Its not supposed to work like that but since when do we trust finance agencies.

You're responding to my post from 8 months ago?  Things do change economically and politically all over the world during that span of time. 

[mogandave]

 
Apologies, I read, it HAS been at 30 since 2013.
 
My mistake.
 

Thanks for clarifying, good man.

[mfd101]

I see that one of the numerous Deputy PMs hinted today that the BOT may be getting close to lifting its base rate. Which wouldn't do much for all of us who derive our income from outside Thailand ...

 

But he might be just mouthing off, of course.

[zzaa09]

5 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

I see that one of the numerous Deputy PMs hinted today that the BOT may be getting close to lifting its base rate. Which wouldn't do much for all of us who derive our income from outside Thailand ...

 

But he might be just mouthing off, of course.

You might have a much different perspective if one was to purely make and spend Baht, instead of the phony-baloney existence based on false ideals of currency rate exchanges....

[mfd101]

1 minute ago, zzaa09 said:

You might have a much different perspective if one was to purely make and spend Baht, instead of the phony-baloney existence based on false ideals of currency rate exchanges....

Obviously anyone whose income is in baht needn't worry about exchange rates, though they might worry about their bank loan(s).

 

As for phoney-baloney, I have personally experienced over the last 3 years what happens as you build a new house on imported funds and your home currency slowly sinks in the west ...

[janclaes47]

36 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

As for phoney-baloney, I have personally experienced over the last 3 years what happens as you build a new house on imported funds and your home currency slowly sinks in the west ..

Is that what a sinking fund is for?

[mogandave]

Obviously anyone whose income is in baht needn't worry about exchange rates, though they might worry about their bank loan(s).
 
As for phoney-baloney, I have personally experienced over the last 3 years what happens as you build a new house on imported funds and your home currency slowly sinks in the west ...

If the Baht gets weak it hurts people that earn Baht.

[RickG16]

So for those in the know... when could good news (if any) about Brexit negotiations change the fortunes of the GBP?

[mogandave]

So for those in the know... when could good news (if any) about Brexit negotiations change the fortunes of the GBP?

I’m no expert, but I think it fair to say that any good (or bad) news about Brexit negotiations could change the fortunes of the GBP at any time.

[janclaes47]

I notice Baht going lower against most currencies today, and extending tonight.

 

Pound has recovered 50 satang today. Dollar - Euro all stronger against Baht today

[mogandave]

I get 61 Satang so far today.....

[simoh1490]

That's normal intraday trading ranges, it's far from being a trend. 

 

Market watchers tell us that GBP and the EURO will both tank if there is no deal, there will be a deal, the question is how good will it be - markets are selling the Pound, the average rate at Thai banks today is 41.34, that's historically quite low albeit in the past twelve hours it has rallied because of the following:.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-29/pound-climbs-to-three-week-high-as-barnier-pledges-unique-deal

Edited August 29, 2018 by simoh1490