what's going on with the Thai Baht

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

It appears at the moment, that the US dollar, the pound sterling and the Euro are having some real issues. The dollar seems particularly weak, and it is understandable considering the inconsistency, and destructive nature of Trump economic and trade policies, and the trade war he is conducting, without wisdom or intelligent guidance. It seems the Thai baht's stability is somewhat counter to all of that. It has to be taking a toll on tourism, which is already weak (if you exclude the zero to very little baht Chinese tourists), we are witnessing the softest peak season in decades, and one would think exports would be considerably less competitive. In addition, there is a huge amount of unsold property on the market, and prices do not seem to be dropping commensurate with the lack of demand for it. 

 

Is it safe to reason that all of this is going to take a toll on the economy eventually? 

I have read that in April? the Baht should fall somewhat as they will pay out dividends to foreign bond holders but will rise again after that. Teflon Thailand. GDP is doing nicely due to infrastructure investment and the electronics industry is taking up some of the slack from the USA/China tariff fight even the automobile industry is doing fine thanks to trump, for us farangs on fixed incomes it doesn't look too rosy, on the one hand Trump, on the other, Brexit/EU problems. Thailand is able to take advantage of these problems while at the same time investing in their countries infrastructure making the Baht the most stable in SE Asia, they will also be raising interest rates soon making foreign investment even more interesting.

[spidermike007]

3 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

I have read that in April? the Baht should fall somewhat as they will pay out dividends to foreign bond holders but will rise again after that. Teflon Thailand. GDP is doing nicely due to infrastructure investment and the electronics industry is taking up some of the slack from the USA/China tariff fight even the automobile industry is doing fine thanks to trump, for us farangs on fixed incomes it doesn't look too rosy, on the one hand Trump, on the other, Brexit/EU problems. Thailand is able to take advantage of these problems while at the same time investing in their countries infrastructure making the Baht the most stable in SE Asia, they will also be raising interest rates soon making foreign investment even more interesting.

 

Good information. Thanks for the articulate and fact filled reply!

[BritManToo]

On 1/12/2018 at 11:05 AM, Wake Up said:

Two things that are daily myths myths on this TVF. One is that Thailand is not doing well financially and will collapse soon.

I don't know about Thailand doing well, but the Thai people are struggling. Local restaurant needs 3k/day to break even, pays the waitresses 150bt/evening. Only makes it 3 night/week.

This is typical for a business in Chiang Mai, the country is doing well, but the poor (almost everyone) are suffering.

[stud858]

I'm hoping for a turn around

. I always use 28 for Aussie dollar when I need to evaluate something long-term. It's far off that but a cycle it is. My bet is 3-5 years time to get back up.

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, stud858 said:

I'm hoping for a turn around

. I always use 28 for Aussie dollar when I need to evaluate something long-term. It's far off that but a cycle it is. My bet is 3-5 years time to get back up.

When I came in 2005 to stay I had based my savings and planned retirement pension on 40 - £ even though it was in the 60's and 70's to £ at the time 14 years on I guess I'm lucky. 

[bomber]

1 hour ago, Kwasaki said:

When I came in 2005 to stay I had based my savings and planned retirement pension on 40 - £ even though it was in the 60's and 70's to £ at the time 14 years on I guess I'm lucky. 

i wonder if guys today are basing their  retirements on 23-24?  

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, bomber said:

i wonder if guys today are basing their  retirements on 23-24?  

Who knows I can go to 15 after that my wife will have to buy my beer. ????

[soalbundy]

18 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I don't know about Thailand doing well, but the Thai people are struggling. Local restaurant needs 3k/day to break even, pays the waitresses 150bt/evening. Only makes it 3 night/week.

This is typical for a business in Chiang Mai, the country is doing well, but the poor (almost everyone) are suffering.

sounds like everywhere in the world.

[ding]

 

Japan's yen is tied significantly to the USD and the Baht will be strong in SE Asia due to this AND...

The whipsaw leadership and psychotic decision-making process in the US has led to a China vs USA trade climate. And Mexico-US relations wont be patched even if Mexico DOES build Trumps wall as he promised.

Then, the US Fed is likely to raise interest rates again- but the US is such a basket case that USD strength wont be a predictable classical model. IMHO.

 

[wombat]

whats going on with the Oz dollar is my question ?

[soalbundy]

31 minutes ago, wombat said:

whats going on with the Oz dollar is my question ?

Hanging on the Chinese nipple.

[mshs]

Inflation and unemployment both under 1%

 

3 1/2% budget deficit similar to large economies of the USA and Japan.

Public debt is comparable to Switzerland's ~42% of GDP

Discount rate ~1 1/2%, prime is ~4 1/2%

 

The average Thai exports $800/year more than he imports. Current Account Balance is 11% of GDP.

 

Do not see why change or what will bring about the change in the 'managed' THB.

 

 

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, mshs said:

Inflation and unemployment both under 1%

 

3 1/2% budget deficit similar to large economies of the USA and Japan.

Public debt is comparable to Switzerland's ~42% of GDP

Discount rate ~1 1/2%, prime is ~4 1/2%

 

The average Thai exports $800/year more than he imports. Current Account Balance is 11% of GDP.

 

Do not see why change or what will bring about the change in the 'managed' THB.

 

 

Maybe Thai people here borrowing money at high % rates must make some difference too.

Don't think you can borrow here at 3% like say you can in UK. 

 

[Naam]

21 hours ago, ding said:

Japan's yen is tied significantly to the USD and the Baht will be strong in SE Asia due to this AND...

the facts show that you are significantly wrong. take a look at USD/JPY:

 

 

[tropo]

On 1/12/2018 at 11:05 AM, Wake Up said:

The reality is Thailand is not crashing and burning and tourism is not declining as many TVF posters would like you to believe. Travel around Thailand by car. Economy is growing in every area north and south with future investments planned for the EEC and roads and rail and sky. 

 

Two things that are daily myths myths on this TVF. One is that Thailand is not doing well financially and will collapse soon.

 

Second you should never drive in Thailand. 

 

IMO once you drive Thailand especially if you are lucky to meet some educated Thai people and some village Thai people, the more you recognize the BS daily posts by some sad expats who don’t like their life and blame their personal misery on Thailand and Thai people. 

 

 

 

 

It's wishful thinking. Obviously, if the economy crashes, so will the baht. You always have to look after number 1 when you're retired. The baht has stood up well through a military coup and all sorts of political turmoil before that, so it's not about to crash any time soon over non-news.

[stud858]

2 hours ago, tropo said:

It's wishful thinking. Obviously, if the economy crashes, so will the baht. You always have to look after number 1 when you're retired. The baht has stood up well through a military coup and all sorts of political turmoil before that, so it's not about to crash any time soon over non-news.

I'm thinking the coooo has a lot to do with it too. The military has no doubt, brought a stop to any burning of shopping malls , things are more certain with military rule.

Not necessarily good certain.

After a 'fair"election takhsin group will be voted in is my guess and baht will reduce in value. Maybe against itself. Huh.

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-20/world-beating-baht-adds-to-challenges-for-thai-economy-in-2019?srnd=premium-asia

 

[HAKAPALITA]

Whats going on ?.My friend reversed his 3 month stay here. It was 60 days in Phuket on the Beer, n 30 up at his Wife’s place.


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[HAKAPALITA]

Bored bloody stiff, waiting to go home????[emoji481]


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[talahtnut]

26 minutes ago, HAKAPALITA said:

Bored bloody stiff, waiting to go home????


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

Me too. Gonna go back and start a bloody revolution

and civilize the west.

[Spock]

On 1/20/2019 at 10:46 AM, wombat said:

whats going on with the Oz dollar is my question ?

The OZ dollar will only get worse not better, particularly if the government cuts interest rates to save the property market and/or the USA raises interest rates again. Brace yourself for more bad news.

[mfd101]

40 minutes ago, Spock said:

The OZ dollar will only get worse not better, particularly if the government cuts interest rates to save the property market and/or the USA raises interest rates again. Brace yourself for more bad news.

As in every 'Western' country, "the government" in Australia does not raise or lower interest rates. That is the job of the RBA which, this morning (first Tuesday of every month), left interest rates untouched at their record low level, as a result of which the Oz dollar rose slightly.

[Spock]

11 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

As in every 'Western' country, "the government" in Australia does not raise or lower interest rates. That is the job of the RBA which, this morning (first Tuesday of every month), left interest rates untouched at their record low level, as a result of which the Oz dollar rose slightly.

Sorry. Very true. I wasn't thinking.

[GeKoSc]

On 1/11/2018 at 3:40 PM, tonray said:

Trump is killing me..........only a short time ago.....36 to the dollar...now 32.......idiot

What have the costly Baht to do with Trump? The Baht is strong against all principal currencies...

[Thomas J]

On 1/12/2018 at 10:10 AM, connda said:

The real question is: "What is happening to the USD, British Pound, and the Euro?"

I am a former banker of 40 years.  Finally someone with an intelligent response.  Trump has nothing to do with it.  Currencies flow and exchange based on demand just like any other commodity.  The baht is not necessarily strong but the USD, Pound and Euro are weak.  Take the Baht compared to the yen in August of 2019 the yen to baht exchange was .29915.  Yesterday it was .28479 so very little change.  The baht is not strong it is the other currencies which are weak.  Currencies react to many factors one of them being interest rates.  Money flows to where interest rates are higher.  The rates in the USA are pitiful  

 

[bomber]

5 hours ago, Thomas J said:

I am a former banker of 40 years.  Finally someone with an intelligent response.  Trump has nothing to do with it.  Currencies flow and exchange based on demand just like any other commodity.  The baht is not necessarily strong but the USD, Pound and Euro are weak.  Take the Baht compared to the yen in August of 2019 the yen to baht exchange was .29915.  Yesterday it was .28479 so very little change.  The baht is not strong it is the other currencies which are weak.  Currencies react to many factors one of them being interest rates.  Money flows to where interest rates are higher.  The rates in the USA are pitiful  

 

Have you check the UK,EU and Japanese rates.The US rates are sky high

[stud858]

The random decisions and flow of money for many reasons can't be overlooked. Property purchases. Traders. Import export deals, who's to know everything that's going on in the world. One thing for sure. It seems to cycle from low point to high. Surely Aussie dollar can't drop much more. What goes down must go up. Please go up.

[Yellowtail]

17 hours ago, Thomas J said:

I am a former banker of 40 years.  Finally someone with an intelligent response.  Trump has nothing to do with it.  Currencies flow and exchange based on demand just like any other commodity.  The baht is not necessarily strong but the USD, Pound and Euro are weak.  Take the Baht compared to the yen in August of 2019 the yen to baht exchange was .29915.  Yesterday it was .28479 so very little change.  The baht is not strong it is the other currencies which are weak.  Currencies react to many factors one of them being interest rates.  Money flows to where interest rates are higher.  The rates in the USA are pitiful  

 

 

5% in six months (assuming you meant 2018) is not much?

 

 

[Jimdandy]

On 1/11/2018 at 3:40 PM, tonray said:

Trump is killing me..........only a short time ago.....36 to the dollar...now 32.......idiot

Last week, 31

[Yellowtail]

On 1/11/2018 at 3:40 PM, tonray said:

Trump is killing me..........only a short time ago.....36 to the dollar...now 32.......idiot

So when it went from 36.1 in 2009 to 28.7 in 2013 I'm guessing that was Bush's fault, yes?