Whats the outlook on the Aus$ / baht

[Kenny202]

Tossing up whether to bring a lump sum accross now or just keep drawing from Australia every 3 months. Ex rate a lot better than it has been last month ot two and still improving. Do now or wait?

 

Sent from my SM-J730GM using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

 

[ezzra]

No one can tell or predict where the aussie $ will go, it has been in the doldrum for a while now and IMHO this where it will stay for many months to come, as there is nothing to support a major upward FX change, i was fortunate to convert THB to aussie $ and got fantastice exchange rate...

[BEVUP]

23 minutes ago, ezzra said:

No one can tell or predict where the aussie $ will go, it has been in the doldrum for a while now and IMHO this where it will stay for many months to come, as there is nothing to support a major upward FX change, i was fortunate to convert THB to aussie $ and got fantastice exchange rate...

Yes agree with that, & it's where the Gov. wants it so it can export more commodities (the only thing propping up the country at the moment along with tourism )

Also the Gov. is spending big time on infrastructure (only good for city people employment ). Must be private firms helping propping it up, as Auss wouldn't have the money

The house prices would even be lower if it weren't for the foreigners buying, due to the fact that it has a flat or dwindling employment rate & minute investment from the multi nationals.

 

[davidst01]

every few months one can read differing predictions of what is going to happen to the $ in various oz papers. maybe instead of doing every 3 months instead do 2 x 6 month transfers?

 

in 3 to 5 yrs I expect wider use of crypto currencies. If you have the financial means, buy a ton of the top 10 currencies and hold for long term. you will make huge gains and can use them to spend anywhere. its all going to take off and be widely adopted IMHO

[watcharacters]

 

You  may be spot on about your crypto currency prediction but any way you slice it it's ultimately   pure speculation.

 

"Buying a ton of the top 10" cryptos may produce a huge gain  as well as a total loss of investment.   

 

It all depends on how well we clean our crystal balls for  viewing predictions  and how active governments become in regulating  cryptos.

[Bluetongue]

The baht will only fall if whoever props it up decides to let it happen. In its case I think purely market driven forces are only one part of the equation so may as wel grab a recent increase now. Expect the Australian dollar to aimlessly shamble along the Government can't get its agenda through and the other side will be catastrophic

[Brickbat]

With the Thai economy forecasted to grow over 4.5% and Aussie economy dragging, not holding my breath and hoping for a change when I run out. My last swap a year ago got me 27.6 thb. 

 

But crypto the future. Especially Ethereum. It’s the future of the internet.  Buying with token coins will be the norm , esp seeing Asia has embraced it faster than other continents. 

[JimHuaHin]

That Australian dollar recently came off its lowest point against the Thai Baht since early 2009 - see http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=AUD&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1953&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=21&MM2=05&YYYY2=2018&btnOK=Go!,  https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency or http://aud.exchangeconversions.com/thb/charts#chart_10years_rate - for data.

 

To guess where the Australian dollar will head for the rest this year is harder than picking the winner of the AFL grand final at this time, and following the 'expert' predictions is just as reliable.

 

Personally, I just follow what is happening economically and politically in Australia and Thailand, and try to pick a high point in the trend, and then send over enough money to survive about 6 months.

 

I would not send over a large amount of money unless there was a strong upward move in the Australia dollar - Thai Baht exchange rate.

 

I hope this helps.

 

 

 

 

[Laza 45]

1 hour ago, JimHuaHin said:

That Australian dollar recently came off its lowest point against the Thai Baht since early 2009 - see http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=AUD&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1953&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=21&MM2=05&YYYY2=2018&btnOK=Go!,  https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency or http://aud.exchangeconversions.com/thb/charts#chart_10years_rate - for data.

 

To guess where the Australian dollar will head for the rest this year is harder than picking the winner of the AFL grand final at this time, and following the 'expert' predictions is just as reliable.

 

Personally, I just follow what is happening economically and politically in Australia and Thailand, and try to pick a high point in the trend, and then send over enough money to survive about 6 months.

 

I would not send over a large amount of money unless there was a strong upward move in the Australia dollar - Thai Baht exchange rate.

 

I hope this helps.

 

 

 

 

yes.. too many variables to make any predictions...  The Thai economy is doing well.. strong Baht.. but those with very deep pockets would not like it to get too strong.. fewer exports..exports.. but huge infrastructure projects bring in huge volumes of Chinese money.. putting upward pressure... etc..  Australia.. banking Royal Commission will probably put brakes on lending and house prices.. but.. indications are that resources are looking at an upward trend.. making the $Au stronger.. ..American economy is picking up it seems making stronger $US...but $Au and Thai Baht go hand in hand with $US.. short answer... who knows?  

[stropper]

personally i think before the next federal election it will stumble back up to 25.5, at patts money changers,  i have been waiting and using my 32 and 28,5 but it is running out, what with house building,  and much more, at 25, or just over i am going nearly all in, , with cash in patts, as i still get my old age pension in aus, it is the same as having 1 million in the bank with todays bank interest, so just leave it there for an unforeseen event, after that i can never see the aus dollar going up ever again, it can now only go backwards, as will all first world currencies against the bhart, these people are workers, and no bloody gambling, the country is strong economically!

[GreasyFingers]

I need to bring a large amount over too, but am going to wait as long as possible and bring in smaller amounts to cover expenses. When, if, it gets back to 26, I will bring the money over as that is the long term average. The RBA will have to lift rates sometime if the USA keep increasing theirs. By the way I use OFX as the rates are better than the banks and you know what rate you are exchanging at.

[giddyup]

I transferred $A150,000 back in 2010 when it was over 30 baht to the dollar. The Thai bank asked me when I wanted to convert it to baht as they were prepared to hold the $A until I was. I foolishly thought it would improve on the $A1= 30 baht exchange so held on, but it nosedived to 27 baht to the dollar. That error in judgement cost me well over $A10,000. 27 to the dollar is looking pretty good right now.

[wonder6281]

The last few days the AUD is up against the baht. 

 

I suspect it will go down once the Australian Navy goes home early next month. 

[davidst01]

1 hour ago, giddyup said:

I transferred $A150,000 back in 2010 when it was over 30 baht to the dollar. The Thai bank asked me when I wanted to convert it to baht as they were prepared to hold the $A until I was. I foolishly thought it would improve on the $A1= 30 baht exchange so held on, but it nosedived to 27 baht to the dollar. That error in judgement cost me well over $A10,000. 27 to the dollar is looking pretty good right now.

am I right in saying that its best to say 'do not convert' to the oz banks. let it happen in thailand?

[ELVIS123456]

4 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

That Australian dollar recently came off its lowest point against the Thai Baht since early 2009 - see http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=AUD&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1953&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=21&MM2=05&YYYY2=2018&btnOK=Go!,  https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency or http://aud.exchangeconversions.com/thb/charts#chart_10years_rate - for data.

 

To guess where the Australian dollar will head for the rest this year is harder than picking the winner of the AFL grand final at this time, and following the 'expert' predictions is just as reliable.

Personally, I just follow what is happening economically and politically in Australia and Thailand, and try to pick a high point in the trend, and then send over enough money to survive about 6 months.

I would not send over a large amount of money unless there was a strong upward move in the Australia dollar - Thai Baht exchange rate.

I hope this helps.

Ditto.  Unpredictable.

 

The low point in 2009 was because of the GFC in 2008/9. 

4 big issues I see going forward next 12-18 months.

• Chinese economy 
• Australian election 
• Thailand election
• Interest rates in Australia (now at historic low)

IMO the Baht has been 'propped up' since 2015 - they cant keep doing that forever.

IMO the AUD will eventually become much more 'realisitic' against the Baht (28-32).

 

 

[Stevemercer]

According to media reports, the Thai Baht goes down May/June every year because of an outpouring of capital prior to the end of the western financial year. It will jump back by July.

 

I'd say transfer now. As other posters have said, no one can really predict currency exchanges and you should just convert when you need the money. There's no point worrying about whether the exchange rate will go up or down.

 

On a personal note I brought over enough for my 400,000 Baht marriage extension when the rate was 30 Baht (e.g. $13,300) several years ago. I foolishly lent it to someone and had to replace from Australia recently to meet seasoning requirements. At 25 Baht, it cost $16,000. Maybe that doesn't sound so bad, but it is equivalent to an extra 70,000 Baht to cover the original 400,000.  I still expect to get the 400,000 back, but I expect I will be out of pocket the 70,000.

[Kenny202]

40 minutes ago, davidst01 said:

am I right in saying that its best to say 'do not convert' to the oz banks. let it happen in thailand?

First few times I brought money here I used OzFX. I liked the idea that you could lock in your rate. The third time I brought across about $35k AUS to buy my pick up had a huge drama. Waited a week. No sign of my money. Then it seemed they were uncontactable for a few days. Finally got onto a guy from England, sounded like he was working from home. After another week fricking around I was told because of money laundering etc I would need to show an order for my truck and this,  that and the other to complete the transfer. Ended up taking 3 weeks and I was shaking like a dog shtting razor blades the whole time. Thought I'd been scammed for sure as the whole process was so unprofessional.

 

These days I simply transfer Australian dollars from my bank to my Bangkok bank and let them do the conversion here on arrival. On their website they show 2 rates. An over the counter exchange rate (terrible) and a TT (Bank transfer) rate. I didn't like taking pot luck at first on what they would give me depending on the time the money hit the account but been doing it for 3 years now and always pleasantly surprised with the rate. Usually only around 0.3 baht less than the advertised ex rate.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, davidst01 said:

am I right in saying that its best to say 'do not convert' to the oz banks. let it happen in thailand?

All Australian banks use a process called Dynamic Currency Conversion, which is their polite way of saying we are going to rob you blind. If you send Thai baht from Australia, you can expect an exchange rate of 21-22 baht on the AUD when the official cross rate is 24 baht to the dollar. It depends on how greedy the individual bank is. And as the Royal Commission is now highlighting, they can be pretty greedy.

If you send Australian dollars to a Thai bank, you will get an exchange rate of 0.3 - 0.5 baht below the official cross rate.

It's not peanuts. I once did a cost comparison of the two methods on $10,000 with a friendly credit union officer. Send it in dollars, and my total cost was $56, including the Thai bank conversion. Send it in Thai baht, and the combined fee of transfer and conversion was $450. No prize for guessing which method I picked.

[heybuz]

i bring cash,i have downloaded pentor exchange app on my phone and get updates on the rate daily,pentor and superrich are in bangkapi mall which is close to me,i find this is best for me.pentor can be up to 1baht more than superrich and much better than the banks.

[JLCrab]

Since this is Kenny, the answer is to wait and see what Kenny does and then do the opposite.

[Kenny202]

Since this is Kenny, the answer is to wait and see what Kenny does and then do the opposite.

Normally Id be offended [emoji47] But you speak the truth, particularly where money is concerned. I dont think there has been one time i have transferred "at the right time". The exchange rate plumetted literally the first month I was here

Sent from my SM-J730GM using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[sawadee1947]

22 hours ago, watcharacters said:

 

You  may be spot on about your crypto currency prediction but any way you slice it it's ultimately   pure speculation.

 

"Buying a ton of the top 10" cryptos may produce a huge gain  as well as a total loss of investment.   

 

It all depends on how well we clean our crystal balls for  viewing predictions  and how active governments become in regulating  cryptos.

There might be in long term only one crypto left on the market...... Run by banks officially 

[chicowoodduck]

Oh my Buddha, can we just stop this insane nonsense.....people asking about financial or medical advice on TV.......might be the last place anyone should go to.....??

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, chicowoodduck said:

Oh my Buddha, can we just stop this insane nonsense.....people asking about financial or medical advice on TV.......might be the last place anyone should go to.....??

Are you suggesting we should consult a Thai financial adviser or Thai doctor?

[davidst01]

12 hours ago, Lacessit said:

All Australian banks use a process called Dynamic Currency Conversion, which is their polite way of saying we are going to rob you blind. If you send Thai baht from Australia, you can expect an exchange rate of 21-22 baht on the AUD when the official cross rate is 24 baht to the dollar. It depends on how greedy the individual bank is. And as the Royal Commission is now highlighting, they can be pretty greedy.

If you send Australian dollars to a Thai bank, you will get an exchange rate of 0.3 - 0.5 baht below the official cross rate.

It's not peanuts. I once did a cost comparison of the two methods on $10,000 with a friendly credit union officer. Send it in dollars, and my total cost was $56, including the Thai bank conversion. Send it in Thai baht, and the combined fee of transfer and conversion was $450. No prize for guessing which method I picked.

Im still a bit confused. is it best to not convert in oz correct? ive read it several times over the last few yrs

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, davidst01 said:

Im still a bit confused. is it best to not convert in oz correct? ive read it several times over the last few yrs

Sorry, I have run out of neon signs. DO NOT CONVERT TO THAI BAHT IN AUSTRALIA.

[giddyup]

7 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Sorry, I have run out of neon signs. DO NOT CONVERT TO THAI BAHT IN AUSTRALIA.

Agreed, made the mistake once of ticking the wrong box (Thai Baht) when I transferred A$10,000 from Oz, that cost me about $500 in exchange rates.

[tigermoth]

20 hours ago, Laza 45 said:

yes.. too many variables to make any predictions...  The Thai economy is doing well.. strong Baht.. but those with very deep pockets would not like it to get too strong.. fewer exports..exports.. but huge infrastructure projects bring in huge volumes of Chinese money.. putting upward pressure... etc..  Australia.. banking Royal Commission will probably put brakes on lending and house prices.. but.. indications are that resources are looking at an upward trend.. making the $Au stronger.. ..American economy is picking up it seems making stronger $US...but $Au and Thai Baht go hand in hand with $US.. short answer... who knows?  

If the Thai Junta keeps stalling on elections there will be significent unrest and possibly violence here and then the baht will fall through the floor. Also there is no way that growth will be anywhere near 4.5%. All business people here are moaning about how bad things are, including the tourist industry.

[Ks45672]

9 hours ago, chicowoodduck said:

Oh my Buddha, can we just stop this insane nonsense.....people asking about financial or medical advice on TV.......might be the last place anyone should go to.....??

Buy some of the top crypto currencies 

If you have anything to invest

Btc, Ethereum, xlm are all going to do very well imho

[Ks45672]

I would take today's rate 

Aus will probably be worth 20thb soon

If we're lucky