UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

welovesundaysatspace · August 24, 2018

1 hour ago, rixalex said:

No, in circumstances with thousands of variables affecting the possible outcome, any person with a functioning brain, including a five year old, would not presume one outcome as being a certainty.

What “thousands of variables” are you talking about? And even then it would depend on the relationship between those variables.

It also doesn’t matter if some things might not be 100% certain. It’s enough that with a 98 or 99% probability a big mess will happen.

sandyf · August 24, 2018

3 hours ago, Jip99 said:

To be fair Sandy, I doubt that the planes were ever going to fall out of the sky at Midnight.

Agree with the principle of planning and you would have thought that the EU would have had a blueprint for a member country leaving.

Did anyone ever think they would?, the real problem was on ground level. The person responsible for the Y2K issue in the RAF was in fact from my entry and we had a bit of a discussion at the Halton reunion in 1998.

It is the same with brexit and aviation, no physical danger to anyone just the potential for major disruption. I saw the CEO of BMI being interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he admitted they were selling tickets on a wing and a prayer. How can any government allow that sort of situation to come about.

dick dasterdly · August 24, 2018

33 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Did anyone ever think they would?, the real problem was on ground level. The person responsible for the Y2K issue in the RAF was in fact from my entry and we had a bit of a discussion at the Halton reunion in 1998.

It is the same with brexit and aviation, no physical danger to anyone just the potential for major disruption. I saw the CEO of BMI being interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he admitted they were selling tickets on a wing and a prayer. How can any government allow that sort of situation to come about.

"It is the same with brexit and aviation, no physical danger to anyone just the potential for major disruption. I saw the CEO of BMI being interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he admitted they were selling tickets on a wing and a prayer."

I'm pretty sure I asked this question a while ago on a different thread:-

So you seriously think that flights in and out of the uk will be grounded if there is no deal??

Perhaps you're right and flights in and out of the uk will be stopped for a couple of months - but I can't see this going down well with eu business people either....

Hopefully, this whole 'uk flights will be grounded for a couple of months if there is no deal' will be bookmarked by someone - so that we can re-visit this scare-mongering tactic to see if such an obvious and ridiculous scare tactic proves to be true.....

Edited August 24, 2018 by dick dasterdly

sandyf · August 24, 2018

4 hours ago, kwilco said:

These are the WTO tariffs imposed on Dairy products, a large proportion of which we currently get duty-free from the EU.

You also overlook that any delay on shipping goods from EU will result in increased transport costs.

I think people have little concept of what an expensive bottleneck Dover will become despite the concrete evidence of this

This is the extract from the actual schedule.takes a bit of deciphering. The figure after the commodity code appears to indicate the number of subdivisions, hence the different number of tariffs, a total of 43 different tariffs for cheese.

040610   3   0   .    .    .    0   3   [221.2 EUR/100 kg] [185.2 EUR/100 kg] [185.2 EUR/100 kg]    Fresh cheese "unripened or uncured cheese", incl. whey cheese, and curd
040620   1   0   .    .    .    0   1   [188.2 EUR/100 kg]    Grated or powdered cheese, of all kinds
040630   4   0   .    .    .    0   4   [215 EUR/100 kg] [144.9 EUR/100 kg] [139.1 EUR/100 kg] [144.9 EUR/100 kg] Processed cheese, not grated or powdered
040640   3   0   .    .    .    0   3   [140.9 EUR/100 kg] [140.9 EUR/100 kg] [140.9 EUR/100 kg] Blue veined cheese and other cheese containing veins produced by "Penicillium roqueforti"
040690   32   0   .    .    .    0   32   [221.2 EUR/100 kg] [185.2 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [188.2 EUR/100 kg] [188.2 EUR/100 kg] [188.2 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [151 EUR/100 kg] [167.1 EUR/100 kg] [171.7 EUR/100 kg] [171.7 EUR/100 kg] [171.7 EUR/100 kg] [171.7 EUR/100 kg] [167.1 EUR/100 kg] Cheese (excl. fresh cheese, incl. whey cheese, curd, processed cheese, blue-veined cheese and other cheese containing veins produced by "Penicillium roqueforti", and grated or powdered cheese)

This was the problem back in the old days, customs had to be quite vigilant to ensure the classification was correct and the correct tariff applied. It all became so much easier in the SM when the documentation became purely statistical and no revenue being collected.

August 24, 2018

11 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Perhaps you're right and flights in and out of the uk will be stopped for a couple of months - but I can't see this going down well with eu business people either....

Naturally it's not good for the EU side, like it's naturally far worse for the UK side.

The thing is that UK will First have to decide what it wants to do.. and only after that UK can start negotiating aviation terms with EU.. and other countries as well.

Seems to me that UK has not even completed to wonder what it's final model with EU is.. and time is running out.

sandyf · August 24, 2018

4 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

So you seriously think that flights in and out of the uk will be grounded if there is no deal??

I certainly do not, and I have said so a few times already.

If things were to get to that point, the most likely move would be a temporary extension to article 50 until these essential arrangements are redrafted.

It is far better all round that these agreements are dealt with in a constructive manner, rather than under panic conditions.

The point being made by the BMI CEO was that he did not know if the tickets he was currently selling would become a problem or not, and I suspect he meant financially. Various changes could occur such as insurance, landing fees, certification etc that would push up operating costs and effectively mean that the tickets have been sold at a loss.

sandyf · August 24, 2018

22 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Hopefully, this whole 'uk flights will be grounded for a couple of months if there is no deal' will be bookmarked by someone - so that we can re-visit this scare-mongering tactic to see if such an obvious and ridiculous scare tactic proves to be true.....

If you can actually show who said that then by all means bookmark it.

In the meantime it would be better to refrain from making things up.

rixalex · August 24, 2018

What “thousands of variables” are you talking about? And even then it would depend on the relationship between those variables.

It also doesn’t matter if some things might not be 100% certain. It’s enough that with a 98 or 99% probability a big mess will happen.

I'm talking about the myriad of different agreements that can be reached with other nations, other bodies and organisations, not only in the process of leaving the EU, but in the days, weeks, months and years that will follow. Nobody has said that Brexit will be instantly successful. It's going to take time. You claim to know with 98 to 99% certainty that it's going to be a compete disaster. That's your opinion. Fine. Just as there are many who feel with a similar degree of certainty that the EU model is doomed to collapse at some point in the not too distant future.

These are all opinions. Everyone is entitled. Stop getting carried away with yourself with all this, "I know for a fact what will happen in the future". You don't. You think you do. History is littered with people like you.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

dick dasterdly · August 24, 2018

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

<snip>

It is the same with brexit and aviation, no physical danger to anyone just the potential for major disruption. I saw the CEO of BMI being interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he admitted they were selling tickets on a wing and a prayer. How can any government allow that sort of situation to come about.

The implication of the CEO of BMI's comment - was suggesting that they may not be able to provide the flights purchased....

35 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

"It is the same with brexit and aviation, no physical danger to anyone just the potential for major disruption. I saw the CEO of BMI being interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he admitted they were selling tickets on a wing and a prayer."

I'm pretty sure I asked this question a while ago on a different thread:-

So you seriously think that flights in and out of the uk will be grounded if there is no deal??

Perhaps you're right and flights in and out of the uk will be stopped for a couple of months - but I can't see this going down well with eu business people either....

Hopefully, this whole 'uk flights will be grounded for a couple of months if there is no deal' will be bookmarked by someone - so that we can re-visit this scare-mongering tactic to see if such an obvious and ridiculous scare tactic proves to be true.....

18 minutes ago, sandyf said:

I certainly do not, and I have said so a few times already.

If things were to get to that point, the most likely move would be a temporary extension to article 50 until these essential arrangements are redrafted.

It is far better all round that these agreements are dealt with in a constructive manner, rather than under panic conditions.

The point being made by the BMI CEO was that he did not know if the tickets he was currently selling would become a problem or not, and I suspect he meant financially. Various changes could occur such as insurance, landing fees, certification etc that would push up operating costs and effectively mean that the tickets have been sold at a loss.

Yes, you have previously agreed that there is no way flights in and out of the uk would be grounded if there was 'no deal' - but I disagree with the 'implication' you have taken from the BMI CEO's comments.

As we all know, in the real world - if there are any extra costs incurred the flights would still be provided, so what was he going on about with the "selling tickets on a wing and a prayer" comment?

9 minutes ago, sandyf said:

If you can actually show who said that then by all means bookmark it.

In the meantime it would be better to refrain from making things up.

There was a thread not that long ago stating that Heathrow Airport (?) was borrowing money in case it had to be grounded for a couple of months in the event of 'no deal'.....

I'm most certainly not "making things up" - just providing an uncomfortable reminder of yet another of the (unbelievable, even to remainers) 'scare tactics' employed.....

bristolboy · August 24, 2018

5 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

There was a thread not that long ago stating that Heathrow Airport (?) was borrowing money in case it had to be grounded for a couple of months in the event of 'no deal'.....

Heathrow raises £1bn debt as it prepares for Brexit

https://www.ft.com/content/ceb7d6ce-8f55-11e8-bb8f-a6a2f7bca546

Stupooey · August 24, 2018

5 hours ago, billd766 said:

This is a list of cheeses from the United Kingdom. The British Cheese Board states that "there are over 700 named British cheeses produced in the UK."

Charles de Gaulle famously said once 'How can you govern a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?', so it's not surprising that Theresa May is struggling.

vogie · August 24, 2018

34 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

Charles de Gaulle famously said once 'How can you govern a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?', so it's not surprising that Theresa May is struggling.

My very best advice to you is, never trust a nation that puts a C on the hot water taps.

melvinmelvin · August 24, 2018

7 hours ago, tebee said:

Yes but Switzerland has to obey more EU rules than the EEA countries and accept ECJ jurisdiction.

ch interacts with eu/ec on a sector by sector basis, from where do you have this more rules idea?

melvinmelvin · August 24, 2018

8 hours ago, tebee said:

Both Switzerland and the EEA are outside the CU - that on it's own will have a very significant effect on UK industry.

are you pissed already?

what on earth are you saying, france, uk, italy germany etc outside the cu???

Srikcir · August 24, 2018

28 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

'How can you govern a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?'

The answer is "if you rely on prices and markets, you can easily have hundreds or thousands of kinds of cheese"

Best Laid Plans by Randall O'Toole

My interpretation is that basically you need to understand the diversity of the options and the unifying forces to their commonality to devise a plan or solution. In other words, the solution isn't simple nor intuitive. That might be reflected in the nature of May's Brexit negotiations with the EU, and the impatience of a swift negotiated Brexit.

Stupooey · August 24, 2018

4 minutes ago, vogie said:

My very best advice to you is, never trust a nation that puts a C on the hot water taps.

....or one that has the hot and cold water coming out of separate taps

tebee · August 24, 2018

4 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

are you pissed already?

what on earth are you saying, france, uk, italy germany etc outside the cu???

Counties that are in both the EU and EEA are in the customs union, but they get that from the EU membership, not the EEA. Countries that are only in the EAA are not part of the CU.

melvinmelvin · August 24, 2018

32 minutes ago, tebee said:

Counties that are in both the EU and EEA are in the customs union, but they get that from the EU membership, not the EEA. Countries that are only in the EAA are not part of the CU.

sorry, this does not make sense, me thinks

have another belhaven

all eu members are members of eea, they have no choice - obligatory

efta members that fancy being part of eea are members of eea

ch does not fancy eea, hence - efta only

there ain't no such animals around that are eea only and not eu or efta

eea is a construct for eu and efta members

Grouse · August 24, 2018

7 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The difficulty is the UK trying to have a cake and eat it.

Cheesecake presumably

welovesundaysatspace · August 24, 2018

I like this initiative for a permanent European Union citizenship:

https://eci.ec.europa.eu/002/public/#/initiative

billd766 · August 24, 2018

43 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

I like this initiative for a permanent European Union citizenship:

https://eci.ec.europa.eu/002/public/#/initiative

Why would I want to be a citizen of the EU.

I am more than happy being a citizen of the UK.

If it were possible I would like to have dual citizenship of the UK and Thailand but in my case it isn.t so I will stick with what I have.

Will you be applying?

whatsupdoc · August 24, 2018

I like this initiative for a permanent European Union citizenship:
https://eci.ec.europa.eu/002/public/#/initiative

Just about the only good thing that Brexit will bring is that Farage will no longer be a MEP. Please keep it that way.

Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

tebee · August 24, 2018

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

sorry, this does not make sense, me thinks

have another belhaven

all eu members are members of eea, they have no choice - obligatory

efta members that fancy being part of eea are members of eea

ch does not fancy eea, hence - efta only

there ain't no such animals around that are eea only and not eu or efta

eea is a construct for eu and efta members

Norway and GreenLand ?

vogie · August 24, 2018

25 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

Just about the only good thing that Brexit will bring is that Farage will no longer be a MEP. Please keep it that way.

Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

Yes you're correct, Farage had the intelligence to humiliate the EU council, they never had the nous to give him an answer back, now they will be free to run around like spoilt 5 year olds.??

Chomper Higgot · August 24, 2018

3 minutes ago, vogie said:

Yes you're correct, Farage had the intelligence to humiliate the EU council, they never had the nous to give him an answer back, now they will be free to run around like spoilt 5 year olds.??

Don’t get ahead of yourself.

Farage has some explaining to do wrt why he felt the need to travel directly to the Ecuadorian embassy in London so soon after a meeting with Trump.

Farage might yet have need of ‘European Parliament Privilage’ and his colleagues in the European Parliament might get to vote on taking it from him.

’You’re not laughing now’ comes to mind.

Stupooey · August 24, 2018

5 minutes ago, vogie said:

Yes you're correct, Farage had the intelligence to humiliate the EU council, they never had the nous to give him an answer back, now they will be free to run around like spoilt 5 year olds.??

He also had the "intelligence" to cut and run when the result was announced, along with the other Brexit leaders, leaving the poisoned chalice of leave negotiations to those who never wanted to leave in the first place.

vogie · August 24, 2018

2 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

He also had the "intelligence" to cut and run when the result was announced, along with the other Brexit leaders, leaving the poisoned chalice of leave negotiations to those who never wanted to leave in the first place.

He didn't "cut and run" anywhere, Farage had nothing to do with negotiations, he wasn't in government, he did his job. Are you saying Farage should be in charge of Brexit?

melvinmelvin · August 24, 2018

1 hour ago, tebee said:

Norway and GreenLand ?

norway is a straight efta member, from the birth of efta - hence also eea

greenland? probably not, not sure,

there are some special status areas around

canary islands

greenland

aaland and surely a few more

billd766 · August 24, 2018

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Don’t get ahead of yourself.

Farage has some explaining to do wrt why he felt the need to travel directly to the Ecuadorian embassy in London so soon after a meeting with Trump.

Farage might yet have need of ‘European Parliament Privilage’ and his colleagues in the European Parliament might get to vote on taking it from him.

’You’re not laughing now’ comes to mind.

Explaining to who?

Stupooey · August 24, 2018

12 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

I think we all agree that Cameron's management of the referendum left a lot to be desired. The reason being that he never expected a Leave decision to be returned by the voters. Especially as there was huge pressure from the UK's political parties and establishment to vote Remain. But the "elite" were proven wrong.

"Restricting immigration" is something that all UK governments have promised for a long time, and they have all failed to meet their targets. But I don't think the vote to Leave was driven by one issue at all. I'm a very long-term expat Brit, so I wasn't offered a vote, but I would have voted Leave for political reasons, and increasingly I'm favouring the economic argument for Leave too.

Agree entirely with your first two sentences, and I believe that is what decided the referendum. No thought was given to who should be allowed to vote, it was treated just like a General Election. You keep telling us that you were denied a vote, but do you think you should have been eligible? About 700,000 UK citizens who have worked in the EU for more than 15 years were not given a vote, even though they will feel the effects more than most, as many of them will have to leave their jobs and return to the UK.

Because the Scottish Independence vote was to determine the long-term future of the country, 16/17 year olds were given the vote, so why not in the EU Referendum? The official reason given for not implementing the recommendation of the House of Lords for this was cost, but this would have been a drop in the ocean compared to the cost of Brexit. The real reason was they thought the result a foregone conclusion, so no need to create extra work, but who would have been more affected by the result, a 16 year old or a 96 year old? With these two deserving groups included, a very different result would probably have emerged.

The opinion polls only reinforced this feeling that we would vote to remain, which meant that many people didn't vote who might have done otherwise, and surveys have suggested that the non-voters would mainly have supported Remain.

The other Referendum condition that should have stipulated was a minimum of 40% of the electorate to vote Leave to secure the result, as has been the norm previously in pre-legislative referenda. It seems ridiculous that such a cataclysmic change was voted for by just 37% of the electorate (meaning of course that 63% did not vote for it).

I also agree with you that the vote to leave wasn't driven by one issue, but again I think that worked in favour of the Leave vote. Most Remainers seem to have voted for the complete WYSIWYG EU package, whereas most Leavers appear to have voted for one specific reason, whether it was Immigration, "Sovereignty", Ag & Fish, anti-Government protest or whatever.

Someone in an earlier post said that the right thing must be seen to be done, and I"m not sure that this is the case with Brexit, as all indications show that it no longer has the support of the majority, if indeed it ever did.

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