Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[My Thai Life]

8 hours ago, sandyf said:

I posted some time ago how difficult it would become for SME's, of course ridiculed by the brexiteers.

SME's account for about half the UK working population, approx 16 million. It wouldn't take much of a change to make a significant change in the unemployed, 10% reduction would more than double the figure.

Really?

 

As I posted a while back, more than 200 British SME chief executives and entrepreneurs have called on Conservative MPs to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, describing it as “the worst of all worlds”.

 

Their preferred alternative is to leave the European Union without a deal. They say “At present, 92% of British companies do not trade with the EU at all. And this 92% account for 87% of the UK economy.”

 

This 92% currently have to waste time and money on EU regulations completely unnecessarily. None of the project fear "forecasts" has estimated the cost of this waste of time time and resources.

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by My Thai Life

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Really?

 

As I posted a while back, more than 200 British SME chief executives and entrepreneurs have called on Conservative MPs to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, describing it as “the worst of all worlds”.

 

Their preferred alternative is to leave the European Union without a deal. They say “At present, 92% of British companies do not trade with the EU at all. And this 92% account for 87% of the UK economy.”

 

Yet this 92% are still encumbered by EU regulations.

How encumbered are they? According to the World Bank Ease of Doing Business index, Denmark ranks #3 in the world and the UK #9. Both rank very high. Is the EU somehow making business more difficult for the UK than for Denmark? For reference, the USA ranks #8.  Out of the top 20 nations, 8 are in the EU. Not every problem an EU country faces is the fault of the EU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ease_of_doing_business_index

 

[My Thai Life]

On 12/21/2018 at 5:24 PM, tebee said:

Firms are pausing or diverting investment

This is a good argument for no-deal.

 

It gets us to the real negotiation more quickly than any other option. May's WA just postpones the real negotiations for another year or 2 or 3 ....

 

Everyone seems to understand now that the WA is the weakest position for the UK to negotiate from, as well as being more expensive.

[My Thai Life]

2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

How encumbered are they? According to the World Bank Ease of Doing Business index, Denmark ranks #3 in the world and the UK #9. Both rank very high. Is the EU somehow making business more difficult for the UK than for Denmark? For reference, the USA ranks #8.  Out of the top 20 nations, 8 are in the EU. Not every problem an EU country faces is the fault of the EU.

You're looking at this question through the wrong end of the telescope.

 

Obviously the UK is one of the easiest places in the world to do business. We invented free trade and the legal apparatus to support that.

 

The idea that the 92% of British companies who don't do business with the EU should waste time and money complying with EU regulations is clearly farcical. Only someone driven by ideology could fail to see that.

 

[bristolboy]

Just now, My Thai Life said:

You're looking at this question through the wrong end of the telescope.

 

Obviously the UK is one of the easiest places in the world to do business. We invented free trade and the legal apparatus to support that.

 

The idea that the 92% of British companies who don't do business with the EU should waste time and money complying with EU regulations is clearly farcical. Only someone driven by ideology could fail to see that.

 

How difficult can it be to comply with those regulations if Denmark is the 3rd easiest country in the world to do business in? And Norway which is an EFTA nation is #7. Both ahead of the USA.

[bristolboy]

"After leaving, the British government could weaken social, employment and environmental regulation to some degree. But half of the estimated cost of these EU regulations comes from just two policies: the Renewable Energy Strategy and the Working Time Directive. Scrapping these regulations would mean abandoning Britain’s renewable energy targets and removing rights such as the entitlement to 20 days paid annual leave – and this would be politically difficult. "

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/how-does-the-eu-impact-small-businesses-and-what-benefits-could-leaving-present-them/

[My Thai Life]

6 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

How difficult can it be to comply with those regulations if Denmark is the 3rd easiest country in the world to do business in? And Norway which is an EFTA nation is #7. Both ahead of the USA.

As I said, you are looking at it through the wrong end of the telescope.

 

It is absurd for the 92% of British companies, who account for the 87% of the UK economy to waste time and money complying with regulations they don't need and don't use. This is surely self-evident.

 

If you're still not getting the point, then do some research: calculate the number of UK companies in the 92%, multiply by a notional annual cost for unnecessary EU compliance, factor that into the project fear "forecasts" (because none of the project fear forecasters have done so) and send your results to the New York Times. You will be adding to the debate.

 

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

As I said, you are looking at it through the wrong end of the telescope.

 

It is absurd for the 92% of British companies, who account for the 87% of the UK economy to waste time and money complying with regulations they don't need and don't use. This is surely self-evident.

 

If you're still not getting the point, then do some research: calculate the number of UK companies in the 92%, multiply by a notional annual cost for unnecessary EU compliance, factor that into the project fear "forecasts" (because none of the project fear forecasters have done so) and send your results to the New York Times. You will be adding to the debate.

 

It's you who is ignoring reality. How much encumbrance can there be if Denmark, Norway, and the UK are so much easier to do business in than the rest of the world? The United States is a huge continental economy with far smaller percentage of foreign trade as a component, and yet Denmark and Norway come out ahead. And the UK is virtually tied with it. Where is the burden? You could on asserting that there is one but where?   As the excerpt I posted pointed out the UK is going to have to post its own regulations that now come from the EU. So it's not like these regulations are an added encumbrance. It's what the UK would have to have anyway. 

 

[evadgib]

Nostalgia aint wot it used to be ????

 

[Guest]

54 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

How encumbered are they? According to the World Bank Ease of Doing Business index, Denmark ranks #3 in the world and the UK #9. Both rank very high. Is the EU somehow making business more difficult for the UK than for Denmark? For reference, the USA ranks #8.  Out of the top 20 nations, 8 are in the EU. Not every problem an EU country faces is the fault of the EU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ease_of_doing_business_index

 

EU does enable businesses to flourish. That's the British definition of EU. For the rest of us, EU has far more deeper meaning on our real life Values.

 

The size of economies matters. Denmark is a tiny little country compared to the mighty UK.

 

While Denmark shows that it's beneficial to be part of the far larger economy, does it mean anything for the mighty UK?

 

UK is a tiny economy when compared to the mighty ones. China, USA, EU.. and coming India, perhaps Indonesia and what will become South America later on. 

 

UK's economy is going to shrink quite a lot as UK's economy is based mainly on services.

 

Services require access to other parts of the world. That will end due Brexit.

 

Services are highly dependent of trust. "I trust you to take good care of my money". Not paying the 39 Billion divorce bill? Say goodbye to the Trust UK build up over the last 200 years. It's gone.

 

So yeah, UK is pretty much done by now. It's time for us all to see new potentials with more willing and more wholehearted partners.

 

 

[My Thai Life]

23 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

t's you who is ignoring reality. How much encumbrance can there be if Denmark, Norway, and the UK are so much easier to do business in than the rest of the world?

You have completely missed the point for the 3rd time.

 

The question isn't "what worldwide rank does the UK have in ease of doing business?". We all know the UK is one of the easiest places in the world to do business, because we (the UK) invented free trade and the legal apparatus to support it, along with a few of our historical European friends.

 

The question is "how much time and money are the 97% of British companies who contribute 87% of the UK economy, but don't do any business with the EU, wasting on EU compliance?" Answer - a lot. So much so that 200 SME CEOs wrote to the British Prime Minister about it.

 

By the way, I am not a born again free-trader. I can think of numerous controls I would like to see introduced by the UK domestically. But only under our sovereign control.

 

Forcing EU companies to comply with EU regulations when they have no trans-EU business is one of the many casualties of the Customs Union. It is completely unnecessary and has massive associated costs which have never been assessed.

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

The question is "how much time and money are the 97% of British companies who contribute 87% of the UK economy, but don't do any business with the EU, wasting on EU compliance?" Answer - a lot. So much so that 200 SME CEOs wrote to the British Prime Minister about it.

Nah. The question really is how much protection do the UK folks want of the products which are sold to the people of UK?

 

How much power you'll give to the manufacturers and importers to import lesser tested product to be used by your people in the UK.

 

EU does that for each of us. The overwhelming regulation actually works for our wellbeing. It's hard to imagine, no?

[bristolboy]

45 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

You have completely missed the point for the 3rd time.

 

The question isn't "what worldwide rank does the UK have in ease of doing business?". We all know the UK is one of the easiest places in the world to do business, because we (the UK) invented free trade and the legal apparatus to support it, along with a few of our historical European friends.

 

The question is "how much time and money are the 97% of British companies who contribute 87% of the UK economy, but don't do any business with the EU, wasting on EU compliance?" Answer - a lot. So much so that 200 SME CEOs wrote to the British Prime Minister about it.

 

By the way, I am not a born again free-trader. I can think of numerous controls I would like to see introduced by the UK domestically. But only under our sovereign control.

 

Forcing EU companies to comply with EU regulations when they have no trans-EU business is one of the many casualties of the Customs Union. It is completely unnecessary and has massive associated costs which have never been assessed.

How could it have massive associated costs if doing business is so easy in these EU nations. What you are claiming makes no sense.

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

The question isn't "what worldwide rank does the UK have in ease of doing business?". We all know the UK is one of the easiest places in the world to do business, because we (the UK) invented free trade and the legal apparatus to support it, along with a few of our historical European friends.

This is probably what explains the best, the way British people think of the past like it would somehow represent the present world.

 

Yes. Britain had everything a country could want. 

- Britain had the language. Everyone of us are talking in English when communicating with each others. I personally have used several other languages, so it's not just English.

- Britain had access to the Great EU markets. 

- Toyota thinking: We can communicate in English, we can trust the Brits being reasonable, we can have full access to the EU markets. Let's build our factory to Britain.

- Many other companies thinking in the similar way. Britain was the easy way, the English speaking way, to gain access to the EU.

 

Well, now, most of us are able to communicate in English. That's the de facto Esperanto anyway. We no longer have to care nor love the British to simply talk with each others. Britain became redundant, when it comes to the language itself. Most of us speak far cleared American English anyway. 

[My Thai Life]

18 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

How could it have massive associated costs if doing business is so easy in these EU nations. What you are claiming makes no sense.

I honestly don't understand why you don't understand. But I assume you're being honest in what you say, so I'll try to explain. All figures below are taken from the UK SME CEO news item that I referenced a few weeks ago.

 

92% of British companies don't have any business with the EU (I think I mis-typed 97% before). But this 92% still has to comply with EU regulations. This compliance costs time, money and resources. It is completely unnecessary for the 92%. (So 100% of companies are facing EU regulatory compliance expense but only 8% trade with the EU.)

 

Add to this the fact that this 92% represents 87% of the British economy. (So 100% of UK business faces EU regulatory expense even though only 13% of the economy is with the EU.)

 

Add to that the fact that this is ocurring in all EU countries (obviously the %ages will vary in each country). It really is madness.

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by My Thai Life

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, oilinki said:

Services are highly dependent of trust. "I trust you to take good care of my money". Not paying the 39 Billion divorce bill? Say goodbye to the Trust UK build up over the last 200 years. It's gone.

 

 

Maybe it's  because you're an old Finn raised on Socialist dogma that you don't seem to understand how private enterpirse works. The government of the UK will not be providing services to customers in other nations. That's done by private businesses in the UK. No customer is going to think a private business from the UK is less reliable because the government hasn't fulfilled its obligations. Brexit will have may unfortunate consequences for UK businesses. But that particular consequence you allege here isn't one of them. 

[tomacht8]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

As I said, you are looking at it through the wrong end of the telescope.

 

It is absurd for the 92% of British companies, who account for the 87% of the UK economy to waste time and money complying with regulations they don't need and don't use. This is surely self-evident.

 

If you're still not getting the point, then do some research: calculate the number of UK companies in the 92%, multiply by a notional annual cost for unnecessary EU compliance, factor that into the project fear "forecasts" (because none of the project fear forecasters have done so) and send your results to the New York Times. You will be adding to the debate.

 

That is abstruse one-dimensional.
That's rubbish.
SME are Micro, small and medium sized.
In the UK 89,3 % from all enterprises are micro sized. These are, for example, all hairdressers, small craftsmen, tax consultants and all small self-employed. And 8.8% are small enterprises.
These company size classes are not at all affected by EU regulations.

The situation is different for the medium (1,5%) and large (0,4%) size classes.

Inform your self how many people are employed in the respective company size classes.

Then you would better understand the scope of Brexit with regard to the number of employees affected.
 

And ur number" account for the 87% of the UK economy" is absolutly wrong.

Alone the Large Enterprises bring in Value from 41,4 %. ( micro 21,8%)

(small 18,6%) (medium 18,2%)

Edited December 22, 2018 by tomacht8

[welovesundaysatspace]

3 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

 

As I posted a while back, more than 200 British SME chief executives and entrepreneurs have called on Conservative MPs to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, describing it as “the worst of all worlds”.

Thanks for letting us know what 200 British SME think. How about the other 5,699,800?

[tebee]

5 hours ago, oilinki said:

 

 

 

 

Services require access to other parts of the world. That will end due Brexit.

 

Services are highly dependent of trust. "I trust you to take good care of my money". Not paying the 39 Billion divorce bill? Say goodbye to the Trust UK build up over the last 200 years. It's gone.

 

So yeah, UK is pretty much done by now. It's time for us all to see new potentials with more willing and more wholehearted partners.

 

 

This is talking about the US, but much is relevant to a post-brexit UK, especially one that does not pay it's bills

 

 

https://eand.co/do-americans-know-how-much-trouble-theyre-in-78e8ef00d53c

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

if you should manage to Brexit,

white Christmas and a sound lifestyle is waiting,

 

here a snippet from wintertime life outside of EU

 

https://sedenne.no/v/300919/norgesvideo-imponerer-en-vakker-verden?jwsource=cl

 

 

[talahtnut]

44 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

if you should manage to Brexit,

white Christmas and a sound lifestyle is waiting,

 

here a snippet from wintertime life outside of EU

 

https://sedenne.no/v/300919/norgesvideo-imponerer-en-vakker-verden?jwsource=cl

 

 

A snippet from inside EU.

Nearly 600 homeless people died on the streets or in temporary accommodation in England and Wales in 2017, up 24% in five years, according to the first government figures on the issue

 

[Grouse]

8 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Learn this Grouse, In Britain our economy has hit

the lowest levels of growth in a lifetime. Our trade

deficit has surged by over £3 billion in the three

months up to October. Our investment is at its

lowest level since the global financial crisis and

productivity growth barely exists.

It seems that your wonderful EU is not doing much

yet to help the UK, o learned one.

You prove my point. You think the EU is the cause of the problems you list? I rest my case.

[My Thai Life]

Forbes ranks the UK as the best country for doing business for the 2nd year running, and sees a free trade Brexit as a positive outcome.

 

 “The process of exiting the European Union will afford the government opportunities to correct any remaining structural deficiencies that might be holding back an already high-performing economy,” per the report. “The U.K. has one of the world’s most efficient business and investment environments and will soon be open to expanded global trade relationships.”

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/19/the-best-countries-for-business-2019-u-s-down-u-k-on-top/#1d8afc1c52d5

 

[talahtnut]

39 minutes ago, Grouse said:

You prove my point. You think the EU is the cause of the problems you list? I rest my case.

So what is the point of remain? An open and shut case.

[My Thai Life]

The UK Office of National Statistics reports that exports in the last year to non-EU countries were £342 billion while exports to EU countries were £274 billion.

 

In the same period, the growth in exports continued to outstrip the growth in imports, almost halving the UK’s trade deficit from £23.4 billion to £15.8 billion. Most exceptionally, since the referendum, exports have increased by £111 billion to £610 billion. (This demonstrates that the BoE pre-referendum forecast was wrong.)

 

Add to this the fact that British firms raised by far the most venture capital in the EU this year – over 70pc more than France or Germany.

[metisdead]

An inflammatory post and the replies have been removed. 

[My Thai Life]

As reported by me a couple of weeks ago:

 

John Longworth, the former director general of the British Chamber of Commerce, has organized a letter to Conservative MPs to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, describing it as “the worst of all worlds”.

 

The letter, signed by the heads of medium-sized businesses who have a combined turnover of over £2 billion a year and employ at least 45,000 people nationwide, says that the deal “offers the EU carte blanche to impose uncompetitive and deliberately punitive policies on the UK, selling British business down the river”.

 

Their preferred alternative is to leave the European Union without a deal. “At present, 92% of British companies do not trade with the EU at all. And this 92% account for 87% of the UK economy.”

[sandyf]

On 12/22/2018 at 10:00 AM, malagateddy said:

Do you ever think about the countless British workers who have lost their jobs due to the fact that the factories where they worked shut down and relocated to eastern europe in order to slash labour costs.?????


Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

And your point is?  Job migration is under way and will only escalate with the UK leaving the EU, certainly not going to stop it.

 

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Really?

 

As I posted a while back, more than 200 British SME chief executives and entrepreneurs have called on Conservative MPs to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, describing it as “the worst of all worlds”.

 

Their preferred alternative is to leave the European Union without a deal. They say “At present, 92% of British companies do not trade with the EU at all. And this 92% account for 87% of the UK economy.”

 

This 92% currently have to waste time and money on EU regulations completely unnecessarily. None of the project fear "forecasts" has estimated the cost of this waste of time time and resources.

 

Would that be the 200 companies that found no need to export.

 

The independent study, commissioned by business and finance software provider Exact, revealed an average 54 per cent of SMEs now sell products or services abroad, with those in the manufacturing sector very much leading that charge – 68 per cent of them export.

https://www.exact.com/uk/exact-online/online-business/product-news/exports-biggest-driver-of-business-growth-for-nearly-one-fifth-of-uk-smes/

 

Mike Cherry, FSB National Chairman, said:

“One in three FSB members trades overseas. Small business exports have been on the rise since the referendum with the lower value of the pound making UK goods and services more competitive. We know that our members who export are more likely to survive, innovate and grow. As the UK leaves the single market any new agreement must maintain the current ease of trade with the EU and not lead to additional administrative or financial burdens. For a truly global Britain, we need the Government to enhance specific support for small exporters to reach new customers and to negotiate ambitious UK-specific trade deals with large and emerging markets.”

https://www.fsb.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/small-businesses-speak-out-on-brexit

[My Thai Life]

17 minutes ago, sandyf said:

And your point is?  Job migration is under way and will only escalate with the UK leaving the EU, certainly not going to stop it.

Obviously there will be restructuring. But restructuring is a permanent part of business and economics these days. The pace of change is accelerating, due to technology and globalisation. Nothing new there, I think we all know that.

 

One thing that in my opinion has been lacking in the UK for a long time is investment in people - education and training. Another thing that has been missing is continuity, the yoyo between Labour and Tory effectively wiping out progress.

 

Investment in people and continuity are the 2 things that in my opinion the German model has succeeded in providing admirably for the last few decades: and we can all see the benefits. Whether it will continue to do so, who knows?

 

But your assertion that Brexit will escalate job loss is just that - an assertion. It all depends on post-Brexit policies. I'll remind you again that employment in the UK is at a high, while unemployment in parts of the Eurozone in staggering, especially youth unemployment.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2018 by My Thai Life