Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[bomber]

19 minutes ago, aright said:

I have made this point before, I am certain countries like Greece and Italy etc would like to go back to the drachma and lire but they can't afford to.  Both countries are virtually bankrupt and should they revert who would loan them money to set up a Central Bank or pay off existing debts? The euro unfortunately is their financial crutch. Germany of course could do something about it but why would they? 

maybe greece and italy should adopt the pound then they would be even poorer,been in the euro is actually helping,why do you think greece stayed in going back was never likely,going back will give them a weak currency similar to the turkish lira,egyptian/UK pound and paying back debts more expensive,a no brainer

[melvinmelvin]

23 minutes ago, Grouse said:

With zero import duty you should buy Afgan, Persian and Turkish floor coverings.

 

However man made fibre shag pile is all the rage in leaver areas, it's the technology solution you see ????

nope, buy Tibet and Nepal, fantastic

I have loads and loads and loads

stay nice and last for ever

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

15 minutes ago, bomber said:

maybe greece and italy should adopt the pound then they would be even poorer,been in the euro is actually helping,why do you think greece stayed in going back was never likely,going back will give them a weak currency similar to the turkish lira,egyptian/UK pound and paying back debts more expensive,a no brainer

I'm actually starting to enjoy your 'unique' insights into the Forex markets! Bomber for Chancellor I say! 

[owl sees all]

41 minutes ago, Grouse said:

With zero import duty you should buy Afgan, Persian and Turkish floor coverings.

 

However man made fibre shag pile is all the rage in leaver areas, it's the technology solution you see ????

Yes, you could buy all the above as well as Chinese carved and super-washed. But we are talking wall to wall fitted carpets. The Belgians - with their subsidised production - captured the UK synthetic and cut-n-loop market 40 odd years ago. Their carpets are (even now) not a patch on the traditional Wilts and Axes*. 

 

The poorer areas were attracted by the lower price of the synthetics. But on the whole, they were rubbish.

 

Spain used to produce some high-quality 100% wool carpets in the 1980s.

 

* The best carpets in the world when I was a lad. Needs a fresh approach.

 

 

[bomber]

48 minutes ago, aright said:

That's water under the bridge and criticizing them for a past life style is not a solution, neither is force feeding them bread and gruel. A more inventive solution is required and as head of the Eurozone Germany should take that on otherwise...…….

So its ok to spend 1000s of billions of euros you dont have and just forget about it...get real man..the EU introduced measures after this and they have worked well with only italy coming near to abusing those measures a few months ago...ps i would love to see you credit card bill 

[bomber]

18 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I'm actually starting to enjoy your 'unique' insights into the Forex markets! Bomber for Chancellor I say! 

Its not a future prediction its based on what the euro has been.and staying in the euro was the right choice.you cannot change history

[tebee]

15 hours ago, aright said:

France is now having a diplomatic spat with Italy and Germany. A great example of European solidarity.

But it proves they are still independent nations, not merged into an European admix. 

[bomber]

32 minutes ago, Grouse said:

That's what you get if you lead a Prosecco life style on Dracma wages. The Latins need to sober up.

 

 

Very true,but the leave voters seem to have a lot of sympathy for the the live for the day culture while telling us brexit may take 5-10-15 years to flourish.

[CG1 Blue]

25 minutes ago, bomber said:

Its not a future prediction its based on what the euro has been.and staying in the euro was the right choice.you cannot change history

Have a read of this report from Forbes, and then you can decide if the Euro has been good for Greece. If you don't want to read the whole thing I'll give you some snippets:

 

"Mr. Centeno’s claim that “we have all learned our lessons” from the Greek crisis is mealy-mouthed. The Eurozone’s leadership doesn’t seem to have learned anything at all. The Troika’s disastrous handling of the Greek crisis has driven Greece into the worst peacetime depression experienced by any advanced economy in recorded history. Yet the Eurozone’s fiscal adjustment policies, anchored as they are to GDP, remain crazily pro-cyclical: when an economic downturn hits, fiscal finances immediately worsen, forcing Eurozone countries to cut back spending and raise taxes. We know from the Greek crisis that fiscal austerity in a downturn both deepens the slump and makes it harder to repair fiscal finances. Yet this is still the only game in town for Eurozone countries."

 

"To satisfy its creditors, Greece must now run a primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP until 2022 and 2.2% of GDP thereafter until 2060. Fiscal austerity is on the menu for generations to come. Furthermore, if GDP takes a nosedive – as both business cycle theory and economic history tell us is almost certain to happen at some point during that time – further cuts will be necessary to meet primary surplus targets. In the light of this, the IMF has expressed serious reservation about the sustainability of Greek finances. If it is right, then the Greek crisis is not ended. It will be back with a vengeance in a decade or so."

 

"Bank bailouts are unpopular. It was politically more convenient to blame “profligate Greeks” for the bailout than to admit that French and German banks had lent foolishly, still less that bank regulators had been asleep at the wheel. Even today, the tone of Mr. Centeno’s comments places all responsibility for ensuring there are no further bailouts firmly on Greece."

 

"The Eurozone has also failed to take on board the need for active management of balance of payments in a currency union where fiscal transfers are limited. Continual fiscal austerity in Eurozone periphery countries keeps domestic demand depressed, which prevents current account deficits building up again. But countries like Germany and the Netherlands can run persistently large current account surpluses without sanction."

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/08/20/lessons-for-the-eurozone-from-the-greek-debt-crisis/#ab8840055ddb

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nauseus]

35 minutes ago, tebee said:

But it proves they are still independent nations, not merged into an European admix. 

You mean like an Onion?

[bomber]

3 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Have a read of this report from Forbes, and then you can decide if the Euro has been good for Greece. If you don't want to read the whole thing I'll give you some snippets:

 

"Mr. Centeno’s claim that “we have all learned our lessons” from the Greek crisis is mealy-mouthed. The Eurozone’s leadership doesn’t seem to have learned anything at all. The Troika’s disastrous handling of the Greek crisis has driven Greece into the worst peacetime depression experienced by any advanced economy in recorded history. Yet the Eurozone’s fiscal adjustment policies, anchored as they are to GDP, remain crazily pro-cyclical: when an economic downturn hits, fiscal finances immediately worsen, forcing Eurozone countries to cut back spending and raise taxes. We know from the Greek crisis that fiscal austerity in a downturn both deepens the slump and makes it harder to repair fiscal finances. Yet this is still the only game in town for Eurozone countries."

 

"To satisfy its creditors, Greece must now run a primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP until 2022 and 2.2% of GDP thereafter until 2060. Fiscal austerity is on the menu for generations to come. Furthermore, if GDP takes a nosedive – as both business cycle theory and economic history tell us is almost certain to happen at some point during that time – further cuts will be necessary to meet primary surplus targets. In the light of this, the IMF has expressed serious reservation about the sustainability of Greek finances. If it is right, then the Greek crisis is not ended. It will be back with a vengeance in a decade or so."

 

"Bank bailouts are unpopular. It was politically more convenient to blame “profligate Greeks” for the bailout than to admit that French and German banks had lent foolishly, still less that bank regulators had been asleep at the wheel. Even today, the tone of Mr. Centeno’s comments places all responsibility for ensuring there are no further bailouts firmly on Greece."

 

"The Eurozone has also failed to take on board the need for active management of balance of payments in a currency union where fiscal transfers are limited. Continual fiscal austerity in Eurozone periphery countries keeps domestic demand depressed, which prevents current account deficits building up again. But countries like Germany and the Netherlands can run persistently large current account surpluses without sanction."

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/08/20/lessons-for-the-eurozone-from-the-greek-debt-crisis/#ab8840055ddb

 

 

 

 

 

 

The greeks still voted to stay in the euro and the EU, END OF SUBJECT,as a fellow brexiteer of yours posted about an hour ago if they went back to the drachma it would of been more expensive,Mr Forbes's plan wasnt on the table,stop trying to encourage overspending and another 2007/8 collapse,your man corbyn will soon be in power to increase the UKs debt,whose going to bail us out though?   ????

[bomber]

15 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Have a read of this report from Forbes, and then you can decide if the Euro has been good for Greece. If you don't want to read the whole thing I'll give you some snippets:

 

"Mr. Centeno’s claim that “we have all learned our lessons” from the Greek crisis is mealy-mouthed. The Eurozone’s leadership doesn’t seem to have learned anything at all. The Troika’s disastrous handling of the Greek crisis has driven Greece into the worst peacetime depression experienced by any advanced economy in recorded history. Yet the Eurozone’s fiscal adjustment policies, anchored as they are to GDP, remain crazily pro-cyclical: when an economic downturn hits, fiscal finances immediately worsen, forcing Eurozone countries to cut back spending and raise taxes. We know from the Greek crisis that fiscal austerity in a downturn both deepens the slump and makes it harder to repair fiscal finances. Yet this is still the only game in town for Eurozone countries."

 

"To satisfy its creditors, Greece must now run a primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP until 2022 and 2.2% of GDP thereafter until 2060. Fiscal austerity is on the menu for generations to come. Furthermore, if GDP takes a nosedive – as both business cycle theory and economic history tell us is almost certain to happen at some point during that time – further cuts will be necessary to meet primary surplus targets. In the light of this, the IMF has expressed serious reservation about the sustainability of Greek finances. If it is right, then the Greek crisis is not ended. It will be back with a vengeance in a decade or so."

 

"Bank bailouts are unpopular. It was politically more convenient to blame “profligate Greeks” for the bailout than to admit that French and German banks had lent foolishly, still less that bank regulators had been asleep at the wheel. Even today, the tone of Mr. Centeno’s comments places all responsibility for ensuring there are no further bailouts firmly on Greece."

 

"The Eurozone has also failed to take on board the need for active management of balance of payments in a currency union where fiscal transfers are limited. Continual fiscal austerity in Eurozone periphery countries keeps domestic demand depressed, which prevents current account deficits building up again. But countries like Germany and the Netherlands can run persistently large current account surpluses without sanction."

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/08/20/lessons-for-the-eurozone-from-the-greek-debt-crisis/#ab8840055ddb

 

 

 

 

 

 

this is more relevant me than Mr Forbes sympathy with the squandering Greeks,Portugal is 7th in the world and number ONE in Europe and its where iam heading.  UK didnt make the top 10 ????  and your trying to tell me the Britain is Great ????????????

International Living's Top 10 Places To Retire Abroad In 2018.html

[bomber]

1 minute ago, bomber said:

this is more relevant to me than Mr Forbes sympathy with the squandering Greeks,Portugal is 7th in the world and number ONE in Europe and its where iam heading.  UK didnt make the top 10 ????  and your trying to tell me the Britain is Great ????????????

International Living's Top 10 Places To Retire Abroad In 2018.html 527.85 kB · 1 download

 

[nauseus]

6 minutes ago, bomber said:

The greeks still voted to stay in the euro and the EU, END OF SUBJECT,as a fellow brexiteer of yours posted about an hour ago if they went back to the drachma it would of been more expensive,Mr Forbes's plan wasnt on the table,stop trying to encourage overspending and another 2007/8 collapse,your man corbyn will soon be in power to increase the UKs debt,whose going to bail us out though?   ????

Such cobblers. The referendum was about the terms of the bailout, not leaving the Euro or the EU. A waste of time in any case - the Greeks ended up with even harsher austerity than they rejected!  

[bomber]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

Such cobblers. The referendum was about the terms of the bailout, not leaving the Euro or the EU. A waste of time in any case - the Greeks ended up with even harsher austerity than they rejected!  

your a communist,iam convinced now,they blew the lot,simple as that,no sympathy with them,there were some good TV documentries about it and the things they were doing beggared belief,one stuck out it was bus drivers receiving 8-10 free pints of milk a day just for being bus drivers,they were literally throwing it down the drain,and you have sympathy with them,shame on you,

[CG1 Blue]

24 minutes ago, bomber said:

The greeks still voted to stay in the euro and the EU, END OF SUBJECT,as a fellow brexiteer of yours posted about an hour ago if they went back to the drachma it would of been more expensive,Mr Forbes's plan wasnt on the table,stop trying to encourage overspending and another 2007/8 collapse,your man corbyn will soon be in power to increase the UKs debt,whose going to bail us out though?   ????

Debating with you is like trying to herd cats. I think I give up. 

[aright]

2 hours ago, tebee said:

But it proves they are still independent nations, not merged into an European admix. 

What nonsense. The only independent country in the EU is Germany. Every other country is interdependent to varying degrees.

 

[bomber]

12 minutes ago, aright said:

What nonsense. The only independent country in the EU is Germany. Every other country is interdependent to varying degrees.

 

i think your problem is with germany and not the EU,its getting embarrassing now.Zee war is over Tommy

[bomber]

1 hour ago, CG1 Blue said:

Debating with you is like trying to herd cats. I think I give up. 

You dont understand,overspending leads to bankruptcy and even more pain,you havent learnt any lessons from 2007/8 or the Greek crisis,at least the EU put measures in place to stop a similar greek crisis happening again,tough measures yes but the only measures to cure the problem,if you think otherwise you need help. 

[talahtnut]

5 minutes ago, bomber said:

You dont understand,overspending leads to bankruptcy and even more pain,you havent learnt any lessons from 2007/8 or the Greek crisis,at least the EU put measures in place to stop a similar greek crisis happening again,tough measures yes but the only measures to cure the problem,if you think otherwise you need help. 

With all your knowledge, I'd vote you president

of the EU.

[bomber]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Such cobblers. The referendum was about the terms of the bailout, not leaving the Euro or the EU. A waste of time in any case - the Greeks ended up with even harsher austerity than they rejected!  

read this it should end your sympathy for the Greeks,railway cleaners on £60k and barely anyone paying taxes,its called fraud on astronomical scale,all true and no bias as its from 2011.

The Big Fat Greek Gravy Train_ A special investigation into the EU-funded culture of greed, tax evasion and scandalous waste _ Daily Mail Online.html

[bomber]

3 hours ago, aright said:

That's water under the bridge and criticizing them for a past life style is not a solution, neither is force feeding them bread and gruel. A more inventive solution is required and as head of the Eurozone Germany should take that on otherwise...…….

their past life style is well talked about in this artical,please take time to read it,i think even you would be critical,i doubt you ever knew anything about it did as i read newspapers back then and was well aware as soon as the shit hit the fan it was all made in Greece,you have just jumped on the lets blame Germany bus without understanding what actually happened,iam pleased to of enlightened you to the truth.

The Big Fat Greek Gravy Train_ A special investigation into the EU-funded culture of greed, tax evasion and scandalous waste _ Daily Mail Online.html

[tomacht8]

I like it here. So the last 3 pages is all over Greece.

1. The debt ratio of the UK is well above 80% of the gdp of the mastricht criteria max 60%. You should not throw stones when you're sitting in the glasshouse yourself.

2. The UK is not at all affected by the euro problem. The Euro states here set the lines of cover and not the UK. It would be new to me that the UK also has the euro as its currency.

3. Admittedly, Greece should never have participated in the euro. You can read a lot about the counterfeiting of euro data from greece. The Greek Euro situation is now reasonably negotiable. There is brexit, even a bigger problem burger.

4. The Greeks are not poor. The rich only pay no taxes. There are people on the official payrolls they do not exist. Many of the Greeks retired at age 50. Officials only work 2,5days a week with full pay.

This is where the euro countries (not the EU) have put pressure. For 2 years now, Greece has been back on track, paying for its loans on time and generating additional surpluses.

5. The thin sense of propagandists being posted here is really -intellectually - super flat.

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, bomber said:

You dont understand,overspending leads to bankruptcy and even more pain,you havent learnt any lessons from 2007/8 or the Greek crisis,at least the EU put measures in place to stop a similar greek crisis happening again,tough measures yes but the only measures to cure the problem,if you think otherwise you need help. 

You're missing the point. We all know the Greeks caused their own problems - that is not news. If you'd read and understood the information I provided you with you'd see that the EU and French / German banks only made matters worse. That is the point. Let me try to illustrate in a 'Sliding Doors' kind of way.

 

Scenario 1 - Greece never joined the Euro

Greece spend and spend and spend. The more they borrow the more the borrowing costs go up (because interest rates are higher for countries in trouble).  Eventually Greece can't borrow anymore because nobody will lend to them, and they start to default on loans. Greece hits rock bottom and has to start building their economy from scratch, let's say from around 2002. 

 

Scenario 2 - Greece joined the Euro

Greece spend and spend and spend. The more they borrow the more the borrowing costs go up (because interest rates are higher for countries in trouble). Then in 2001 Greece join the Euro. Borrowing becomes easier because lenders consider the Eurozone to be safe.  Greece continue to spend and borrow and spend and borrow. By 2009 Greek debts are out of control, and by 2010 they are doomed to becoming a slave to the EU and austerity for generations. 

 

If Greece / Goldman Sachs / The EU hadn't fudged the Greek economic scores in order to let them in and broaden the Eurozone, Greece would have been much better off. 

 

Hope that helps. 

 

 

 

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, bomber said:

your a communist,iam convinced now,they blew the lot,simple as that,no sympathy with them,there were some good TV documentries about it and the things they were doing beggared belief,one stuck out it was bus drivers receiving 8-10 free pints of milk a day just for being bus drivers,they were literally throwing it down the drain,and you have sympathy with them,shame on you,

It sounds like you are the one in need of a daily supplement. 

[sanemax]

3 hours ago, bomber said:

,there were some good TV documentries about it and the things they were doing beggared belief,one stuck out it was bus drivers receiving 8-10 free pints of milk a day just for being bus drivers,they were literally throwing it down the drain,and you have sympathy with them,shame on you,

Did you just make that up again ?

[aright]

46 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

I like it here. So the last 3 pages is all over Greece.

1. The debt ratio of the UK is well above 80% of the gdp of the mastricht criteria max 60%. You should not throw stones when you're sitting in the glasshouse yourself.

2. The UK is not at all affected by the euro problem. The Euro states here set the lines of cover and not the UK. It would be new to me that the UK also has the euro as its currency.

3. Admittedly, Greece should never have participated in the euro. You can read a lot about the counterfeiting of euro data from greece. The Greek Euro situation is now reasonably negotiable. There is brexit, even a bigger problem burger.

4. The Greeks are not poor. The rich only pay no taxes. There are people on the official payrolls they do not exist. Many of the Greeks retired at age 50. Officials only work 2,5days a week with full pay.

This is where the euro countries (not the EU) have put pressure. For 2 years now, Greece has been back on track, paying for its loans on time and generating additional surpluses.

5. The thin sense of propagandists being posted here is really -intellectually - super flat.

You are right the last 3 pages were all about Greece and Italy not the UK. Where was I throwing stones; the UK is a separate issue but quite happy to get involved if you want to start a post but not if the contributions are a wish list for the failure of the UK post Brexit as one contributor hoped for. I think the EU and the UK have problems but I certainly don't wish failure for either of them.

 

Imo you cannot discuss Greece and Italy without discussing the effect the euro has had on their economies. As I said previous ly their past history is water under the bridge and if the EU wants to save itself it needs to find a solution because if Italy fails that will be the end of the EU. It is estimated that German goods are 25% undervalued because of Germany's participation in the Euro zone. It is able to sell cars at a lower price. The participation of the Greeks and the Southern European countries drags down the value of the euro and the Germans benefit. Germany has a real interest in other euro members staying economically weak because it means the euro remains weak. I am no fan of Donald Trump but he recognized this some time ago.  imo applying a single currency with a fixed exchange rate and a single interest rate over a region with enormous economic, social and political diversity is almost impossible. Blaming the victim will not solve the euro problem and it is in large measure unfair...………..some would say immoral.

 

 

 

 

[bomber]

12 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You're missing the point. We all know the Greeks caused their own problems - that is not news. If you'd read and understood the information I provided you with you'd see that the EU and French / German banks only made matters worse. That is the point. Let me try to illustrate in a 'Sliding Doors' kind of way.

 

Scenario 1 - Greece never joined the Euro

Greece spend and spend and spend. The more they borrow the more the borrowing costs go up (because interest rates are higher for countries in trouble).  Eventually Greece can't borrow anymore because nobody will lend to them, and they start to default on loans. Greece hits rock bottom and has to start building their economy from scratch, let's say from around 2002. 

 

Scenario 2 - Greece joined the Euro

Greece spend and spend and spend. The more they borrow the more the borrowing costs go up (because interest rates are higher for countries in trouble). Then in 2001 Greece join the Euro. Borrowing becomes easier because lenders consider the Eurozone to be safe.  Greece continue to spend and borrow and spend and borrow. By 2009 Greek debts are out of control, and by 2010 they are doomed to becoming a slave to the EU and austerity for generations. 

 

If Greece / Goldman Sachs / The EU hadn't fudged the Greek economic scores in order to let them in and broaden the Eurozone, Greece would have been much better off. 

 

Hope that helps. 

 

 

 

but it was 100% the fault of greece,and you still cannot help but use the term slaves to the EU,and still have to have blame the french and german banks,if it wasnt them it would of been some other countries banks,its pretty much irrelevent,the EU are the people that got them out of their own mess,iam sure youve used the term beggars cannot be choosers at some point in your life and thanks to their greed that is what the greeks now are,i was well aware long before brexit that they fiddled the books to join in the first place,in hindsight a possible minor mistake by the EU but they were not to blame for what came next,despite what you keep claiming about the EU the greeks were free to do as they pleased,nothing to blame but sheer greed and lunacy.They wont do it again thats for sure

[tomacht8]

2 minutes ago, aright said:

You are right the last 3 pages were all about Greece and Italy not the UK. Where was I throwing stones; the UK is a separate issue but quite happy to get involved if you want to start a post but not if the contributions are a wish list for the failure of the UK post Brexit as one contributor hoped for. I think the EU and the UK have problems but I certainly don't wish failure for either of them.

 

Imo you cannot discuss Greece and Italy without discussing the effect the euro has had on their economies. As I said previous ly their past history is water under the bridge and if the EU wants to save itself it needs to find a solution because if Italy fails that will be the end of the EU. It is estimated that German goods are 25% undervalued because of Germany's participation in the Euro zone. It is able to sell cars at a lower price. The participation of the Greeks and the Southern European countries drags down the value of the euro and the Germans benefit. Germany has a real interest in other euro members staying economically weak because it means the euro remains weak. I am no fan of Donald Trump but he recognized this some time ago.  imo applying a single currency with a fixed exchange rate and a single interest rate over a region with enormous economic, social and political diversity is almost impossible. Blaming the victim will not solve the euro problem and it is in large measure unfair...………..some would say immoral.

 

 

 

 

Thx for well thought Post.

I'm sorry but the orange clown, I would like to exclude first.

I do not wish anyone anything bad either.

The world and the struggle for resources on this planet is in full swing.

The UK and the EU have many problems.

Geopolitically it is stupid that the UK wants to leave the EU so hastily.

Who knows the future? Maybe the EU and Russia come together; they could easily end the punk in Ukraine.

It is always good to have a good relationship with your neighbors.

 

 

[bomber]

19 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Did you just make that up again ?

it was on TV documentary on UK TV a year or 2 after the crisis started,there was a long list of other barmy things they were doing,i will scour the net to see if i can find it,have you read the link i posted,railway cleaners on £60k,do you really think it was doing to last forever,maybe corbyn do similar things to keep you happy