webfact 160613 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Thai Jan exports fall 5.7 percent year-on-year, a bigger drop than forecast FILE PHOTO - A shipping container is lifted from a truck to load onto a ship at a port in Bangkok, Thailand, March 25, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's customs-cleared exports dropped for a third straight month in January, falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said on Friday. Analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted a 1 percent slip in exports, a key driver of Thai growth. In December, shipments contracted 1.72 percent from a year earlier. The export decline in January was due to falling shipments of rice, electronics, gold and cars, the ministry said. Exports to the United States rose 8.3 percent in January from a year earlier but ones to China slumped 16.7 percent. The strong baht, Asia's best performing currency this year, has increasingly hurt exports, particularly rice orders, a ministry official said. In January, imports surprisingly jumped 13.99 percent from a year earlier, after sliding 8.15 percent in December. The poll forecast was for a 1.0 percent decline in January. Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills. For January, there was a trade deficit of $4.03 billion, compared with a forecast of a $320 million surplus, and December's $1.06 billion surplus. The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018. (Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by) -- © Copyright Reuters 2019-02-22 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipButty 20461 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Farangs Fault Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy chappie 4388 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 They can expect exports to drop even more with the rise of the bahtcoin.if it carries on like this I'll be able to sell my property half price and go back to the uk evens. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emdog 7839 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 "The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018." "...falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier..." So who should we believe? The commerce ministry or the commerce ministry? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadbury 16608 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Exports in 2018 grew by 7.7%. This year that growth is expected to drop to 4.7% but that prediction was made before the sudden jump in the value of the baht. A more realistic growth figure for this year might now be about 3%. But what of the future? Rice exports are in decline and predictably the new rice laws the junta is rushing through parliament will probably make it worse. Thailand is heavily dependent on exports but there is nothing in the crystal ball that brings hope; only a continuance of decline. If the junta remains in charge Thailand will eventually become the poor cousin of S.E Asia with only Chinese tourists and Chinese investment holding it's economy together. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlmcleod 959 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 The strong Thai Baht will make exports a real scarcity. I guess as long as the Chinese come here and exchange their money for Baht Thailand will be happy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
johng 20193 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 hours ago, webfact said: Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills. Cobra Gold ?????? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAG 24423 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 5 hours ago, webfact said: Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills. If by that they mean the kit to be used for "Cobra Gold", then presumably the troops who brought it into the country will take it with them when they leave! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan 8427 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 5 hours ago, Emdog said: "The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018." "...falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier..." So who should we believe? The commerce ministry or the commerce ministry? Believe the FT which is reporting that the Thai trade deficit is the biggest in six years as exports slide and worsening economic picture ahead. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
metisdead 11169 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 A post in which the quoted content had been altered has been removed. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir 16259 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9 hours ago, webfact said: Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills. A bad trade off - import of military arms and weapons makes no contribution to economic growth. And if they're used as more of a domestic peace time deterrent, their value becomes a sunk and depreciating cost to the government. The result is that they eventually cost much more than their worth. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baerboxer 35007 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 On 2/22/2019 at 1:14 PM, happy chappie said: They can expect exports to drop even more with the rise of the bahtcoin.if it carries on like this I'll be able to sell my property half price and go back to the uk evens. You'd hope someone somewhere might twig the idea that the very strong baht might impact on exports and competitiveness. In their usual style, they'll probably increase prices to compensate - 555! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baerboxer 35007 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 On 2/22/2019 at 1:35 PM, Cadbury said: Exports in 2018 grew by 7.7%. This year that growth is expected to drop to 4.7% but that prediction was made before the sudden jump in the value of the baht. A more realistic growth figure for this year might now be about 3%. But what of the future? Rice exports are in decline and predictably the new rice laws the junta is rushing through parliament will probably make it worse. Thailand is heavily dependent on exports but there is nothing in the crystal ball that brings hope; only a continuance of decline. If the junta remains in charge Thailand will eventually become the poor cousin of S.E Asia with only Chinese tourists and Chinese investment holding it's economy together. How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfokevin 3792 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Is it a coincidence that the baht has soared in the last couple months just when the military junta must pay for a huge order of equipment prior to turning the government back over to civilian control after elections?... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
metisdead 11169 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed, from the article that was removed: Quote The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. Copyright and database rights protection exists in this report and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of ING. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jabis 1308 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 but imported items are cheaper blah blah, strong baht better blah blah Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
akampa 337 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, jabis said: but imported items are cheaper blah blah, strong baht better blah True, but it rarely trickles down to the consumer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 3318 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Will we see the baht drop in value or is it case of maintain the high value at all cost? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jabis 1308 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, akampa said: True, but it rarely trickles down to the consumer. Shouldda written <sarcasm> there, apparently my emoji's were not enough to convey that 😄 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoboi Bebobp 2121 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Exports actual: 5.65% decline. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline Imports actual: 13.99% increase. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline Trade balance actual: $4.03 billion deficit. Analysts estimate: $320 million surplus How's that for staggeringly bad analysts' estimates? Must be MBA grads. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jabis 1308 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Kaoboi Bebobp said: Exports actual: 5.65% decline. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline Imports actual: 13.99% increase. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline Trade balance actual: $4.03 billion deficit. Analysts estimate: $320 million surplus How's that for staggeringly bad analyses? Must be MBA grads. 13.99% increase in imports, but notably which sector the imports increased x) O'well, I just go with the flow. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatOilWorker 7581 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 26 minutes ago, jabis said: 13.99% increase in imports, but notably which sector the imports increased x) O'well, I just go with the flow. We will know on Monday when BOT release the data. https://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/StatInternationalTrade.aspx Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valentine 2455 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Now is the time to upgrade & invest in new technology which will reduce cost of manufacture Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lacessit 32218 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 hour ago, sfokevin said: Is it a coincidence that the baht has soared in the last couple months just when the military junta must pay for a huge order of equipment prior to turning the government back over to civilian control after elections?... You believe the military junta is going to turn the government back over to civilian control? Yeah right. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy chappie 4388 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 7 hours ago, akampa said: True, but it rarely trickles down to the consumer. It'll never trickle down to the customer with unscrupulous importers raking in the benefits of the bahts strength.what goes up in Thailand stays up and will only go even higher.never ever have I seen anything drop in price here.thai logic is if they've paid for it once at that ridiculous price they will pay that or more forever. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin612 1822 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 baht is extremely strong, somebody stop baht. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
473geo 5921 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 10 hours ago, Baerboxer said: How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales? Farmers move to crops with no restrictions providing suitable product for home markets Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadbury 16608 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 14 hours ago, Baerboxer said: How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales? If you can't work it out I feel sad for you. He are a few clues to help. 1. the laws have been created by blockhead military generals who wouldn't know the first thing about rice or growing it but know plenty about corruption and lining their own pockets. 2. Rice farmers are not happy about the new laws and are protesting. 3. Conglomerates look set benefit while rice farmers look set to lose or be driven out of the industry. 4 Any law the military junta promulgates usually ends up being a complete stuff up because of their inability to rationalise and realise the consequences of their actions. Try keeping up with the news instead of sitting back and sniping away at others while not offering any comment yourself. Your form has a familiar pattern. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikebell 20413 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Will the baht strengthen with the imposition of the new 800,000 Immigration laws or weaken with the mass exodus of expats taking their pensions to Vietnam? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wallander4 1018 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 7 hours ago, kevin612 said: baht is extremely strong, somebody stop baht. Not strong, just manipulated by rich Bangkokians and Junta Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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