ANALYSIS: Will Sunday’s election ease or aggravate the conflict?

[webfact]

ANALYSIS: Will Sunday’s election ease or aggravate the conflict?

By JINTANA PANYAARVUDH 
THE NATION

 

 

Experts believe lack of a clear mandate from voters could complicate the current scenario.
 

Next Sunday will be a crucial day for Thailand, as voters cast their ballot to decide on the country’s future. 

 

But what happens after the ballot boxes are closed remains uncertain. Will this election end a decade-long political conflict, or will it just create a new round of battles?

 

With voting just a week away, observers and political scientists The Nation spoke to believe that the most likely scenario after the poll is that General Prayut Chan-o-cha will return as prime minister, thanks mainly to support from Phalang Pracharat Party and its allies.

 

 

Based on this scenario, Uttama Savanayana’s Phalang Pracharat along with its allies – Ruam Palang Prachachat Thai Party of Suthep Thaugsuban and the People Reform Party of Paiboon Nititawan, plus the 250 new senators – will most certainly vote for Prayut as prime minister. 

 

With the advantage accorded by the current charter – which allows the new Senate, handpicked by the National Council of Peace and Order, to vote for the next PM – it will not be difficult for Prayut to secure the post, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.

 

But for him to sail through, his camp must secure at least 126 seats in addition to the 250 senators to win the required 376 votes, Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist from King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said.

 

Prayut securing the PM’s position will also be key to attracting other parties to join them as coalition partners, he added. 

 

 

The academics all agree that Prayut and his allies can easily win backing from the three medium-sized parties, namely Bhumjaithai, Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana, as well as the Democrat Party. 

 

In this scenario, Stithorn estimates this camp will have obtained about 270 seats or more than half of the 500 seats in Parliament, which is enough to form a secure government. 

 

The number could vary, with 220 seats to Phalang Pracharat, its allies and the Democrats, plus 50 seats from the three medium parties. 

 

However, this scenario will only materialise if Phalang Pracharat wins more seats than the Democrats, or becomes the second largest party after Pheu Thai, Stithorn said.

 

Yet they believe the likelihood is that the pro-junta party will win more seats than the Democrats due to certain factors such as the new electoral system. 

Titipol said that according to his observation, Phalang Pracharat’s popularity is rising in the provinces because voters are satisfied with the welfare cards the government has given to low-income earners. 

 

“Also, the party’s political discourse – ‘maintaining peace and order’ – is working well,” he added. 

 

Though Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva reiterated last week that he would not support Prayut’s return as premier, many see this as just a political ploy to win younger voters. 

 

 

The Democrats have in the past proved that they are willing to compromise with the military, so if the party were to be offered key ministerial posts now in exchange for backing Phalang Pracharat, why will they not do it? Titipol asked. 

 

However, Stithorn said the Democrats may also want to be the second biggest winner, so they can have the legitimacy to become a core party to form the government in coalition with other medium parties, as well as Phalang Pracharat, Stithorn said. 

 

For this scenario to materialise, the number of votes by which the Democrats win will have to be a fair bit higher than the votes won by Phalang Pracharat, he added.

 

Odds against Pheu Thais

 

Will Pheu Thai be able form a government? 

 

Yes, say the observers, but they see this is as the least possible scenario. 

 

For this formula to materialise, the Thaksin Shinawatra-backed party and allies namely – Future Forward, Seri Ruam Thai, Puea Chat and Prachachart – must secure at least 250 seats, Stithorn said.

 

 

However, Pheu Thai and its allies can only be expected to garner 220 to 230 seats at most, or 120 or 160 directly from Pheu Thai and 60 to 70 from allies. This, according to Stithorn, will not be enough to form a government. 

 

For a party or coalition to form a government, it needs more than 270 seats in hand for the sake of stability, said Yuthaporn Issarachai, a political scientist from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University.

 

Like Stithorn, Yuthaporn believes Pheu Thai and its allies will get less than 200 seats, so they need to rely on the three medium parties – Bhumjaithai, Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana – for support. 

 

Hence, Yuthaporn said, these three parties – who are expected to win around 50 seats altogether – will play a vital role in deciding whether Phalang Pracharat or Pheu Thai form the next government. 

 

 

However, all the academics agree that there is only a slim possibility of a government being jointly formed by Pheu Thai and the Democrats, as they will need at least 376 seats to fight against the 250 senators when it comes to voting for a PM. 

 

Also, Yuthaporn said, there is no law setting a timeframe for the new government to take office. So, if the two camps fail to come to a decision on forming the new administration, Prayut can continue holding on to his job as premier under the current government, he said.

 

As they say, Thai politics is not one plus one equals two and any unexpect can happen.

 

There is also a clear possibility of a political deadlock if people do not accept the election results or if a new government cannot be formed. 

 

“If that happens, then these elections will have failed to ease the conflicts and instead created a new, more complex conflict,” Yuthaporn warned. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30365994

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-18

[Denim]

I was here when Suchinda tried to hold onto power.

 

It did not go well for him.

 

If Prayuth tries to do the same it will undoubtedly cause resentment.

 

If  students start to protest then others will surely join them and do likewise and history could repeat itself.

[holy cow cm]

16 minutes ago, webfact said:

Yet they believe the likelihood is that the pro-junta party will win more seats than the Democrats due to certain factors such as the new electoral system. 

And wouldn't you think the redrawing of the political constituency voting boundaries could have a play in this as well? Or did they scrap that?

[Sonhia]

The future leadership of Thailand may have already been decided? 

 

Time will tell... 

 

 

[MaxLee]

50 minutes ago, webfact said:

ANALYSIS: Will Sunday’s election ease or aggravate the conflict?

A complete reset with article number not to be named is not out of the question.

[robblok]

Am I the only one reading here that the PTP is losing huge numbers of voters ?

 

120 or 160 seats from PTP  160/500 = 32 % of the votes. Far less then what they had before. Not the landslide victory that users here are predicting but a huge loss of votes. 

 

But lets wait maybe this prognoses is an other fake. Just a bit over a week to wait and we will know.

[baansgr]

Does anyone in the world take Thai elections seriously.....African despots have more respect than Thai polititions.....another four years of military rule is on the cards

[chainarong]

Aggravate is a good enough word, there's nothing that can be said for a sham of an election, mind,  one is being held also this weekend in New South Wales Australia and one can certainly guarantee that every seat that will be filled in parliament will be voted in , not one person will be elected by their peers, pity about the standard though, its about as bad as Thailand's.

[Puchaiyank]

Voting is considered a right and responsibility for all free adults...results of elections now days may be in the hands of IT people...????

[Eric Loh]

“With the advantage accorded by the current charter – which allows the new Senate, handpicked by the National Council of Peace and Order, to vote for the next PM – it will not be difficult”

 

Cant argue with that. Prayut will win by rigging the law and crony agencies. He has no chance in a free and fair election. 

[dinsdale]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

But what happens after the ballot boxes are closed remains uncertain.

No it doesn't.????

[CLW]

This poll sees it different. And I'll hope they end up being right.

If Prayuth stays in power expect civil unrests....

[Denim]

3 hours ago, robblok said:

Am I the only one reading here that the PTP is losing huge numbers of voters ?

 

120 or 160 seats from PTP  160/500 = 32 % of the votes. Far less then what they had before. Not the landslide victory that users here are predicting but a huge loss of votes. 

 

But lets wait maybe this prognoses is an other fake. Just a bit over a week to wait and we will know.

 

Since PTP did not have as many candidates as before , it would hardly be surprising. 

 

Once it's B team , Thai Raksa Chart was disbanded it lost voters in those areas contested by Thai Raksa Chart. Hence the push to get people to vote no and reschedule elections in those areas giving PTP a chance to field candidates for a second round.

 

In our area, leaflets have been given out at our local temple saying it was illegal to vote no, a provision included in the Juntas own so called constitution. Pathetic.

[Denim]

3 hours ago, baansgr said:

Does anyone in the world take Thai elections seriously.....African despots have more respect than Thai polititions.....another four years of military rule is on the cards

 

Those running for election do. All they want is to get back on the gravy train and the devil take the hindmost.

[robblok]

5 minutes ago, Denim said:

 

Since PTP did not have as many candidates as before , it would hardly be surprising. 

 

Once it's B team , Thai Raksa Chart was disbanded it lost voters in those areas contested by Thai Raksa Chart. Hence the push to get people to vote no and reschedule elections in those areas giving PTP a chance to field candidates for a second round.

 

In our area, leaflets have been given out at our local temple saying it was illegal to vote no, a provision included in the Juntas own so called constitution. Pathetic.

I will wait for the elections to comment but still if these numbers are correct the PTP is going downward instead of the landslide victory that was predicted by their supporters. 

 

I am not sure how many areas the Thai Raksa was competing alone so I can't know the exact difference its going to make. But it seems that the huge support for the PTP is a lot less. Again not going to make my final comments as Thai polls often are wrong. 

 

So lets wait and see if the PTP does better or worse then in last election. 

[MisterPenguin]

35 minutes ago, CLW said:

This poll sees it different. And I'll hope they end up being right.

If Prayuth stays in power expect civil unrests....

 

I wish you were likely to be right but all the experience of Thais and Thailand that I have suggests that if Prayuth gets back into power, Thais will suck it up as they suck everything up.

 

The culture, the state religion, the Armed Forces, the amartya and the rest, the USA built it's ideal population and culture in Thailand - it's one of the very few things is didn't foul up, and it isn't going to change. it just isn't.

 

I guess we'll see what happens but I'll wager it won't be anything good or useful.

[madmen]

31 minutes ago, CLW said:

This poll sees it different. And I'll hope they end up being right.

If Prayuth stays in power expect civil unrests....

Like there was going to be civil war after the King died? a million posts declared it but boy what a fizzer

Thais dont care enough to bother with civil unrest. They had their chance during the last 5 years and...a monumental fizzer!!

[CLW]

Like there was going to be civil war after the King died? a million posts declared it but boy what a fizzer
Thais dont care enough to bother with civil unrest. They had their chance during the last 5 years and...a monumental fizzer!!

Why should there have been a war after the king passed away? That was never on the cards...

[Denim]

45 minutes ago, madmen said:

Like there was going to be civil war after the King died? a million posts declared it but boy what a fizzer

Thais dont care enough to bother with civil unrest. They had their chance during the last 5 years and...a monumental fizzer!!

 

They are wary of protesting since in the past, when they have done so , their fellow countrymen in green have shown no revulsion for shooting them. However...sometimes it can kick off but it is always Bangkok that takes the lead.

 

 

 

[Eligius]

'Ease or aggravate the conflict'?

 

It will be merely the beginning.

 

This year is going to get rough - when a few brave souls rise up and protest about the result that will be given to them.

 

The majority of Thais, however, will take it all in their stride, as they have for the past five years.

[lemonjelly]

The fact that it was not allowed to criticize or debate the latest constitution before the referendum on it, a constitution that allows the military junta to hand pick the 250 upper house senators of the total of 750 members of parliament is scandalous enough to bring people onto the streets when the party that the majority of Thailand has voted for is not allowed to form a government


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[madmen]

7 minutes ago, Denim said:

 

They are wary of protesting since in the past, when they have done so , their fellow countrymen in green have shown no revulsion for shooting them. However...sometimes it can kick off but it is always Bangkok that takes the lead.

 

 

 

Getting shot at is expected. Look at what happened in Egypt and others but it didn't stop the protesters (900 killed). How else can the government repulse civil unrest? I do find it odd that posters are suggesting that Thais are cowards by not protesting . I strongly believe they would and of course that goes along with risking your life but hey a tea party and a civil debate with the generals aint gonna work.!

The only possible explanation is they dont want Prayut out. Time will tell not long now

[PhilippBKK]

Things will start to get interesting after June, when the new government will prove to be stuck and the royal succession is completed.

[Eric Loh]

5 minutes ago, madmen said:

The only possible explanation is they dont want Prayut out. Time will tell not long now

You don't need an explanation when you have the whole machinery working on your behalf and a coup at the ready to keep him in. Even blind Freddy can see through the trickery of the junta to rig the election and have him keep his job. Then what happen. Time will tell if he will be dumped ceremoniously or unceremoniously. 

[jayboy]

5 hours ago, robblok said:

Am I the only one reading here that the PTP is losing huge numbers of voters ?

 

120 or 160 seats from PTP  160/500 = 32 % of the votes. Far less then what they had before. Not the landslide victory that users here are predicting but a huge loss of votes. 

 

But lets wait maybe this prognoses is an other fake. Just a bit over a week to wait and we will know.

I think all informed commentators have predicted a lower number of seats for PTP than in the past.No serious source has predicted a landslide.

 

Part of this is due to internal PTP weaknesses, such as the absence of star quality leadership.

 

But most of it is due to the determination of the Junta and the forces that back them to eradicate the influence of Thaksin whom they regard - wrongly I think - as an existential threat. The main objective since the military power grab has been to cripple the PTP.

 

Trouble is for the Junta that the North and North East however much this sham election goes will always have a significant influence. But I think the forces of reaction have done enough to ensure that their precious coup will not be wasted.

 

And the pressure cooker will keep on getting hotter.

[Chrisswe]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

I will wait for the elections to comment but still if these numbers are correct the PTP is going downward instead of the landslide victory that was predicted by their supporters. 

 

I am not sure how many areas the Thai Raksa was competing alone so I can't know the exact difference its going to make. But it seems that the huge support for the PTP is a lot less. Again not going to make my final comments as Thai polls often are wrong. 

 

So lets wait and see if the PTP does better or worse then in last election. 

Whatever happend we all know where the main power is !!! 

[robblok]

4 minutes ago, jayboy said:

I think all informed commentators have predicted a lower number of seats for PTP than in the past.No serious source has predicted a landslide.

 

Part of this is due to internal PTP weaknesses, such as the absence of star quality leadership.

 

But most of it is due to the determination of the Junta and the forces that back them to eradicate the influence of Thaksin whom they regard - wrongly I think - as an existential threat. The main objective since the military power grab has been to cripple the PTP.

 

Trouble is for the Junta that the North and North East however much this sham election goes will always have a significant influence. But I think the forces of reaction have done enough to ensure that their precious coup will not be wasted.

 

And the pressure cooker will keep on getting hotter.

Quite a few on this board made a bet with me that it would be a land slide win. Thaksin himself said so too.

 

I was not talking about the number of seats as normally the PTP got the 50 bonus seats that went to the biggest party. They cancelled that bonus so that influences it too. I was just talking about the amount of votes not seats. The system has been changed so much that to compare both results the number of votes or better yet percentage of votes is a far fairer benchmark.

 

I will wait till the election to see how many votes they get as I don't have much faith in polls. 

 

I am surprised about how many votes the pro junta parties get (will have to see actual numbers). 

 

I also think that future forward will steal some votes from the PTP and Democrats. I can only hope that this guy gets more votes. I know he is un proven but he now tries to put all his holdings in a blind trust. Something that is not mandatory, he is setting himself to higher standards. If he really stays this way then this is the kind of person we need. Not a Thaksin. I could be wrong again its know to happen I was wrong with how long the junta would stay. Its in my nature to be an optimist.

 

 

[Eligius]

29 minutes ago, jayboy said:

I think all informed commentators have predicted a lower number of seats for PTP than in the past.No serious source has predicted a landslide.

 

 

There is no way on God's fair earth that a Pheua Thai Government will be allowed. That is what the past five years have been all about.

I predict that the militarists and their various puppet parties will be announced to have gained close to 60% of the final vote. Notice that I say 'announced to have gained' - not will gain.

 

How the Thais will react this year to such a (or similar) scenario is pretty obvious by now: a few (very, very brave individuals, numbering in the thousands or tens of thousands at most) will make their displeasure felt; the huge majority - will do nothing. And as a couple of posters here often tell me (quite legitimately): 'Who can blame them - if their very lives are on the line' ...

[Fex Bluse]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

ANALYSIS: Will Sunday’s election ease or aggravate the conflict?

"Analysis". Must me asking the Farangs. 

 

It is a long article. But, I do not need to read it. 

 

Thais have NO IDEA what is going on. They vote for their "CLAN". That's it. There is no sophisticated thinking happening in Thai minds. 

 

Done. 

[MisterPenguin]

1 hour ago, Eligius said:

There is no way on God's fair earth that a Pheua Thai Government will be allowed. That is what the past five years have been all about.

I predict that the militarists and their various puppet parties will be announced to have gained close to 60% of the final vote. Notice that I say 'announced to have gained' - not will gain.

 

How the Thais will react this year to such a (or similar) scenario is pretty obvious by now: a few (very, very brave individuals, numbering in the thousands or tens of thousands at most) will make their displeasure felt; the huge majority - will do nothing. And as a couple of posters here often tell me (quite legitimately): 'Who can blame them - if their very lives are on the line' ...

 

Yep, that's how it is.

 

That's how it is for sure, democracy's  got nothing to do with it.

 

BUT.

 

We'll all look back (well, those of us who are still here), and see that they were killing the golden goose. In my present mindset, I believe Thailand is finished. Economy, fast Chinese trains, submarines, EEC, luxury watches et al. none of it will make a difference, Thailand is finished.

 

Mind you, perhaps next year the prices will be lower and at least some of the barstool brigade will have moved on to pastures greener so it's an ill wind...