Anger over Brexit sparks new grassroots drive for Scottish independence

[sandyf]

This is the root of much discontent in Scotland. Westminster uses the population based ratio rather than the Geneva Agreement which gives rise to the Dick Turpin scenario. As usual the Westminster government has a lot to answer for, social justice has never been a strong point.

 

Who gets the oil in the event of Scottish independence? It depends who you speak to and any division of the spoils will be hotly fought over by politicians in Edinburgh and London. If you draw a median line out across the North Sea from the border then 90% of the oil tax revenues will accrue to Scotland. If the calculation is done on the basis of population then that figure will be reduced to 9%, according to the (London-based) National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr).

Angus Armstrong, the author of that Niesr report to sum up their findings, said:

The Geneva agreement on natural resources under the sea dictates that they are divided by the median lines. Most people accept that the Geneva approach is the standard approach. Which gives Scotland 91% of revenues. But this thing, the income, is declining now. It's also very volatile. If you look at budget deficits it makes a huge difference.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/mar/02/oil-revenues-if-scotland-became-independent

[aright]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

There appears be a certain amount of confusion on this forum over the difference between support for independence and the right to independence.

I voted to remain in the EU and I certainly did not support independence for Scotland under the Alex Salmond proposals. That does not mean I do not support the right for Scotland to determine its own future, support for actual independence would only come with a credible proposal.

Many dismiss the concept out of hand without any real thought. It cannot be disputed that there would be problems but any push for independence can only come on the back of EU membership. That being the case it should be borne in mind that unlike other EU applicants the EU is fully aware of Scotland's financial circumstances and it wouldn't be out of the question that assistance from the ECB could be provided to cover the transition.

At the end of the day, as in the previous referendum, a detailed white paper would need to be published so informed decisions can be made.

With a GDP comparable to the UK as a whole and greater than many of the EU member states why is it considered inconceivable that Scotland could not stand on it's own 2 feet.  Debt is a financial hurdle but not a show stopper, and of course the UK government has a vested interest in keeping control of the Oil and Gas sector revenues.

 

Official forecasts anticipate that revenues from oil and gas companies will turn positive in 2017–18 and remain positive until 2022/23.

https://eiti.org/news/uk-oil-gas-negative-government-revenue-rosy-future

Of course Scotland has the right to be independent but that does not give it the automatic right to become a member of the EU.

 

"Holyrood would have to seek membership of the European Union under Article 49 in the event of a 'Yes' vote in a future referendum

The EU has said an independent Scotland would have to join a queue of nations seeking membership of the bloc, after Nicola Sturgeon announced plans for a second independence referendum.

Wading into the debate on the Scottish Government’s plans for a second vote, a spokesman for the European Commission (EC) said Scotland would not be granted automatic access to the EU if it split from the rest of the UK."

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-eu-independence-referendum-scotland-join-queue-membership-apply-a7627201.html

 

[david555]

19 minutes ago, aright said:

Of course Scotland has the right to be independent but that does not give it the automatic right to become a member of the EU.

 

"Holyrood would have to seek membership of the European Union under Article 49 in the event of a 'Yes' vote in a future referendum

The EU has said an independent Scotland would have to join a queue of nations seeking membership of the bloc, after Nicola Sturgeon announced plans for a second independence referendum.

Wading into the debate on the Scottish Government’s plans for a second vote, a spokesman for the European Commission (EC) said Scotland would not be granted automatic access to the EU if it split from the rest of the UK."

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-eu-independence-referendum-scotland-join-queue-membership-apply-a7627201.html

 

I am sure that in the eventuality of Scottish independence the E.U. shall give them in the pre waiting time a very good common market or costoms agreement that make their waiting time very relaxed .. after all they know that the Scots did not wanted to leave E.U. but are dragged along by the Brexit Bunch in this mess

[malagateddy]

I am sure that in the eventuality of Scottish independence the E.U. shall give them in the pre waiting time a very good common market or costoms agreement that make their waiting time very relaxed ..[emoji106] after all they know that the Scots did not wanted to leave E.U. but are dragged along by the Brexit Bunch in this mess

Do not be so sure..the Unionists and Royalists will TOTALLY DESTROY ANY ECONOMIC ARGUMENT re leaving the UK



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[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, malagateddy said:

Do not be so sure..the Unionists and Royalists will TOTALLY DESTROY ANY ECONOMIC ARGUMENT re leaving the UK



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I though you would enjoy this video of Unionists and Royalists invading Scotland.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/video/labour-mps-blasted-imperial-death-213215539.html?

or the shorter version if you are busy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMcngLWjOrs

[Nigel Garvie]

21 hours ago, aright said:

I agree there is some goodwill and alignment which will stand in Scotlands favour. There are however issues which they will find difficult to overcome. They have no currency and no Central Bank. A Central Bank is needed to carry sufficient reserves to guarantee a country's debts and with the parlous state of the economy it's questioable they will find backers to loan fund and establish the Institution. They can of course keep the pound but that will ensure fiscal policy is controlled in London not in Edinburgh.The Bank of England certainly won't be considering the needs of an independent Scotland when they make fiscal policy. I find it difficult to see that a small country can defy the power of the large capitalist markets. It's not for me to encourage or discourage their independence ambition but I do see difficulties ahead not the least of which is getting all the member states to approve, but nevertheless I wish them well. I will of course change my mind if they decide to cancel the Edinburgh Festival.  

I'm not sure that not being able to control fiscal policy (For a while anyway)  is such a huge issue. Consider all the countries that use the US dollar but have no control over fiscal policy, it doesn't seem to be a big issue to them.

[david555]

1 hour ago, malagateddy said:

Do not be so sure..the Unionists and Royalists will TOTALLY DESTROY ANY ECONOMIC ARGUMENT re leaving the UK



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Their problem (unionists & Royalists )..., that does not change the opportunities presented by E.U. in Scotland's case of independence .

Let that be the unionists an Royalist headache all economic scaremongering is used against Brexit too and all the Brexit bullies waved it away … so why for Scotland's independence different ..? getting nervous …old boy ?

PS 

BTW I have nothing against the friendly old lady Queen , as she dressed so nicely in E.U. blue when opening parliament ...… looked like she wanted to point out something …? 

Edited May 1, 2019 by david555

[billd766]

18 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

I'm not sure that not being able to control fiscal policy (For a while anyway)  is such a huge issue. Consider all the countries that use the US dollar but have no control over fiscal policy, it doesn't seem to be a big issue to them.

But none of the countries that use the $USD are in the EU.

 

AFAIR any country wishing to become a member of the EU must stop using their own currency and use the Euro. They must also pass strict financial EU tests (though that didn't work too well with Greece or Italy).

 

While Scotland does have its own currency it does not have a central bank such as the BoE, and £Scottish are not normally acceptable outside of Scotland.

 

If I am incorrect please correct me.

[malagateddy]

Their problem (unionists & Royalists )..., that does not change the opportunities presented by E.U. in Scotland's case of independence .
Let that be the unionists an Royalist headache all economic scaremongering is used against Brexit too and all the Brexit bullies waved it away … so why for Scotland's independence different ..? getting nervous …old boy ?
PS 
BTW I have nothing against the friendly old lady Queen , as she dressed so nicely in E.U. blue when opening parliament ...… looked like she wanted to point out something …? 

Well now..

Suppose we shall just have to wait and see then.

Have a lovely evening..bye

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[soalbundy]

The Scots just want their country back, sound familiar?

[malagateddy]

The Scots just want their country back, sound familiar?

With respect..some scots and some scots ONLY wish to turn scotland into..GREECE WITHOUT THE SUN

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[david555]

9 hours ago, sandyf said:

This is the root of much discontent in Scotland. Westminster uses the population based ratio rather than the Geneva Agreement which gives rise to the Dick Turpin scenario. As usual the Westminster government has a lot to answer for, social justice has never been a strong point.

 

Who gets the oil in the event of Scottish independence? It depends who you speak to and any division of the spoils will be hotly fought over by politicians in Edinburgh and London. If you draw a median line out across the North Sea from the border then 90% of the oil tax revenues will accrue to Scotland. If the calculation is done on the basis of population then that figure will be reduced to 9%, according to the (London-based) National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr).

Angus Armstrong, the author of that Niesr report to sum up their findings, said:

The Geneva agreement on natural resources under the sea dictates that they are divided by the median lines. Most people accept that the Geneva approach is the standard approach. Which gives Scotland 91% of revenues. But this thing, the income, is declining now. It's also very volatile. If you look at budget deficits it makes a huge difference.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/mar/02/oil-revenues-if-scotland-became-independent

Should normally be divided as the fishing waters are divided by U.K. by themselves , what is in front of beach is from that country...Or if not agreed by U.K.   could an independent Scotland claim a part of the Falkland's, Gibraltar or any of the remaining Islands wherever far away in the world ??

[aright]

6 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

I'm not sure that not being able to control fiscal policy (For a while anyway)  is such a huge issue. Consider all the countries that use the US dollar but have no control over fiscal policy, it doesn't seem to be a big issue to them.

All the independent countries using the US dollar are third world...…..that says something. It is not a big issue for the third world because they are insufficiently expansive.....think Zimbabwe.

Using someone else's or a created currency is a form of entrapment...….think euro.

I would have thought not being able to issue government bonds, devalue or revalue your currency or have no control on interest rates or exchange rates etc. would be a real disadvantage if you want to be commercially and financially progressive.

[baboon]

5 hours ago, malagateddy said:

With respect..some scots and some scots ONLY wish to turn scotland into..GREECE WITHOUT THE SUN

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And it is quite possible they may do that, leaving England, Wales and Northern Ireland less significant still. Is that a gamble you want to take?

[bomber]

7 hours ago, soalbundy said:

The Scots just want their country back, sound familiar?

teddy's billy boys wont let you have it ????  

[Scott]

Final warning for endlessly reposting the same memes.   It's trolling.   You will get a suspension.

 

[RuamRudy]

The Telegraph posting articles such as the following is surely a sign of an unstoppable force?

 

Is an independent Scotland now inevitable? I'm beginning to believe it might be

[RuamRudy]

And now the FT joining in with the predictions. It really is starting to feel like the beginning of the end for the UK.

Brexit makes the case for an independent Scotland

"...it is easy to see why many of those who voted against independence in 2014 might now change their minds. Leaving the EU will accentuate the asymmetry of the relationship with England. The Scots face the prospect of being shackled to a partner that has turned at once rightward and inwards. The gulf between the deeply ingrained centrism of Scotland’s political culture and that of an England lurching to the right has widened into a chasm. Scotland wants open borders at a time when English nationalists are slamming them shut."

[aright]

13 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

The Telegraph posting articles such as the following is surely a sign of an unstoppable force?

 

Is an independent Scotland now inevitable? I'm beginning to believe it might be

I see I was not alone in my thinking. Jeremy Warner agrees with me, the reasons for Scotland leaving the UK are very similar to the UK wanting to leave the EU so the decision to vote leave in one instance and remain in another is inconsistent.

[sandyf]

On 5/1/2019 at 1:52 PM, aright said:

Of course Scotland has the right to be independent but that does not give it the automatic right to become a member of the EU.

Show me where I said it did, I only referred to Scotland as an EU applicant, but an applicant that has already received EU funding, not what would be seen as a normal applicant.

 

The EU has invested £379 million in 188 projects over the last five years to help create jobs and support the economy in Scotland.

That’s funding which has or will arrive through European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) between 2014 and 2020.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/european-union-funding-scotland-economy-13746735

[sandyf]

22 hours ago, billd766 said:

But none of the countries that use the $USD are in the EU.

 

AFAIR any country wishing to become a member of the EU must stop using their own currency and use the Euro. They must also pass strict financial EU tests (though that didn't work too well with Greece or Italy).

 

While Scotland does have its own currency it does not have a central bank such as the BoE, and £Scottish are not normally acceptable outside of Scotland.

 

If I am incorrect please correct me.

2 points there Bill.

Potential EU members have to agree to adopt the Euro, it is not an immediate termination of their own currency. Sweden has yet to adopt the Euro.

You will find the Scottish pound listed on SuperRich, currency code is SCO.

[RuamRudy]

3 hours ago, aright said:

I see I was not alone in my thinking. Jeremy Warner agrees with me, the reasons for Scotland leaving the UK are very similar to the UK wanting to leave the EU so the decision to vote leave in one instance and remain in another is inconsistent.

The very fact that Westminster can dictate whether a referendum can take place shows that the two relationships (UK with EU; Scotland with UK) are very different. There is no inconsistency of thought.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

2 points there Bill.

Potential EU members have to agree to adopt the Euro, it is not an immediate termination of their own currency. Sweden has yet to adopt the Euro.

You will find the Scottish pound listed on SuperRich, currency code is SCO.

Thanks for the link Sandy.

 

What currency backs the SCO?

[david555]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

2 points there Bill.

Potential EU members have to agree to adopt the Euro, it is not an immediate termination of their own currency. Sweden has yet to adopt the Euro.

You will find the Scottish pound listed on SuperRich, currency code is SCO.

https://daytodaydata.net/

[aright]

55 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

The very fact that Westminster can dictate whether a referendum can take place shows that the two relationships (UK with EU; Scotland with UK) are very different. There is no inconsistency of thought.

No...both Jeremy and I think it's inconsistency of thought????

However I do concede you are consistent in that you don't accept the results of the Brexit referendum or the 2014 Scottish referendum...……..Let's keep voting till we get it right. 

[david555]

27 minutes ago, aright said:

No...both Jeremy and I think it's inconsistency of thought????

However I do concede you are consistent in that you don't accept the results of the Brexit referendum or the 2014 Scottish referendum...……..Let's keep voting till we get it right. 

Must keep however in mind that in 2014 the Brexit vote did not decided yet that moment , while now Scotland facing this changing point , hence the call for independence ...

Reason = BREXIT …! No Brexit and they would probably be not so determent.... choice is on Westminster..!! ????

Brexit is the nail in the dead coffin for U.K.    anyway it is more easy "to taking back control "..over a smaller territory , let that be England-Wales  light point in it...  

Singapore is not that big neither … so a "Singapore v2 on the North Sea"  is an option ...

Edited May 2, 2019 by david555

[malagateddy]

And now the FT joining in with the predictions. It really is starting to feel like the beginning of the end for the UK.

Brexit makes the case for an independent Scotland

"...it is easy to see why many of those who voted against independence in 2014 might now change their minds. Leaving the EU will accentuate the asymmetry of the relationship with England. The Scots face the prospect of being shackled to a partner that has turned at once rightward and inwards. The gulf between the deeply ingrained centrism of Scotland’s political culture and that of an England lurching to the right has widened into a chasm. Scotland wants open borders at a time when English nationalists are slamming them shut."

Shame then that there will be a " hard border ".
Now R/R,
FINANCIALLY..
Scotland exports approx 75% of its produce to the rest if the UK..and only 25% to the eeeeuuuu.
Another point..could you tell me which bank or financial concern would be the BANK OF LAST RESORT????
Cheers mucker

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[malagateddy]

Show me where I said it did, I only referred to Scotland as an EU applicant, but an applicant that has already received EU funding, not what would be seen as a normal applicant.
 

The EU has invested £379 million in 188 projects over the last five years to help create jobs and support the economy in Scotland.

That’s funding which has or will arrive through European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) between 2014 and 2020.

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/european-union-funding-scotland-economy-13746735

Do you really mean that scotland is getting some of the UK's money back re these 188 projects??
Where does the eeeuuu get the cash..FROM the taxpayers of the UK and Germany.
You seem to like to sparkle a turd with confetti methinks.

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[aright]

10 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Shame then that there will be a " hard border ".
Now R/R,
FINANCIALLY..
Scotland exports approx 75% of its produce to the rest if the UK..and only 25% to the eeeeuuuu.
Another point..could you tell me which bank or financial concern would be the BANK OF LAST RESORT????
Cheers mucker

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The SNP want to keep sterling and retain the Bank of England as the lender of last resort. If agreed the English, Welsh and Irish taxpayer will be ultimately financially responsible for any independent Scottish failed tax and spending policies.

Waiter! Another opt out and tonic please!

[malagateddy]

 
The SNP want to keep sterling and retain the Bank of England as the lender of last resort. If agreed the English, Welsh and Irish taxpayer will be ultimately financially responsible for any independent Scottish failed tax and spending policies.
Waiter! Another opt out and tonic please!

Honestly..sturgeon should be a stand up comedian..maybe herself and roy chubby brown could do a greatest " hits " tour together??[emoji2][emoji2][emoji2][emoji2][emoji2]

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