Best estimates for visa changes, the near and far term?

[tideout]

I'm curious what people think, even though I realize it's really almost all speculation on some level.

 

With election results still dragging on, I've seen some speculation that when it's settled, there's likely to be a reassessment of the immigration policy - I guess the hope being that they'd reassess the stricter current policies and move back toward something more beneficial to their own economy as well as people who are playing by the rules. While I know there's a lot of pessimism about the current situation, a softened, future policy would certainly seem like a reasonable outcome.

 

Again, curious about members opinions and not looking for absolute certainty on it.

 

Cheers.

 

 

[Jingthing]

Not optimistic in the least.

Prepare a plan b.

And c.

 

Sent from my Lenovo A7020a48 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

 

 

 

[LongTang]

I think you summed it up very nicely ????

Its really difficult to know which way the wind will blow (look at BJ as one example), though i doubt we will see a drastic relaxation of the rules..

Anyway, if you are really serious about staying here for a long time and are not near 50, get an elite visa and hopefully forget about this rollercoaster.

[Jingthing]

I think you summed it up very nicely [emoji3]
Its really difficult to know which way the wind will blow (look at BJ as one example), though i doubt we will see a drastic relaxation of the rules..
Anyway, if you are really serious about staying here for a long time and are not near 50, get an elite visa and hopefully forget about this rollercoaster.

As if they can't change the rules on Elite. I think it's in the contract that they can.

Sent from my Lenovo A7020a48 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[gk10002000]

The thing is a mess.  As I get closer to heading over there, and having monitored the situation it just makes me sick.  Frankly I probably may just end up getting two SETVs each year, getting a 30 day extension and staying for 90 days on each with a long break in between in some other country or back in the USA.  I can afford the Elite visa and I like the convenience of it, but trust the Thai system even less now and would hate to put that money out there.  If I decide to fully punch out of the USA well, that is still a year or so away so will just wait and see.  I am over 50 and don't really see the need to justify paying for the Elite so its glamour has gone down in my eyes.  The income reporting transfer is nonsense.   

 

   The best solution would be for the US embassy to just do the income letter and have somebody set up some ground rules or procedure to satisfy the Thais that the letter has teeth and there really is income, or have the embassy create some process to verify some sort of income.  Maybe hire some 3rd party company that will charge some nominal fee and will inspect records and documents and back up what you are affirming in the income letter?  I don't mind paying for something reasonable that works.  My suggested guidelines for income letter being issued are:

1:  Proof of pension, government, military, private company, social security.  Some documentation that may vary but should not be too hard to supply and validate.

2:  Proof of income from non wage activities:

Rental property, Stock dividends, Fund dividends.  Show IRS 1040, 1099 and bank statements with current holdings.  In my mind my stock and fund income and dividends are more reliable than many pension funds that are poorly funded.  And in my case, while I will have Social security in a year or two, my portfolio income I get is almost $70,000 USD now. 

3.  Other types of income NOT just distributions from a 401k or IRA.  I up front would expect and accept that while the IRS treats distributions from IRAs and 401ks as "income" that is not the steady type of income the Thais probably expected when Income method was allowed.

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by gk10002000
add

[LongTang]

38 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

As if they can't change the rules on Elite. I think it's in the contract that they can.

Sent from my Lenovo A7020a48 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Agreed, But I did say , " and hopefully forget about this rollercoaster"

[JohnnyBD]

49 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

The thing is a mess.  As I get closer to heading over there, and having monitored the situation it just makes me sick.  Frankly I probably may just end up getting two SETVs each year, getting a 30 day extension and staying for 90 days on each with a long break in between in some other country or back in the USA.  I can afford the Elite visa and I like the convenience of it, but trust the Thai system even less now and would hate to put that money out there.  If I decide to fully punch out of the USA well, that is still a year or so away so will just wait and see.  I am over 50 and don't really see the need to justify paying for the Elite so its glamour has gone down in my eyes.  The income reporting transfer is nonsense.   

 

   The best solution would be for the US embassy to just do the income letter and have somebody set up some ground rules or procedure to satisfy the Thais that the letter has teeth and there really is income, or have the embassy create some process to verify some sort of income.  Maybe hire some 3rd party company that will charge some nominal fee and will inspect records and documents and back up what you are affirming in the income letter?  I don't mind paying for something reasonable that works.  My suggested guidelines for income letter being issued are:

1:  Proof of pension, government, military, private company, social security.  Some documentation that may vary but should not be too hard to supply and validate.

2:  Proof of income from non wage activities:

Rental property, Stock dividends, Fund dividends.  Show IRS 1040, 1099 and bank statements with current holdings.  In my mind my stock and fund income and dividends are more reliable than many pension funds that are poorly funded.  And in my case, while I will have Social security in a year or two, my portfolio income I get is almost $70,000 USD now. 

3.  Other types of income NOT just distributions from a 401k or IRA.  I up front would expect and accept that while the IRS treats distributions from IRAs and 401ks as "income" that is not the steady type of income the Thais probably expected when Income method was allowed.

 

Just park 800k THB in a Thai bank account. Use 400k during the year and bring back up to 800k if you want to stay another year. If you ever decide to leave, you can convert & cash out the 400k remaining balance into USD and carry it home. I use the 800k method. Easy peasy...

Edited April 29, 2019 by JohnnyBD

[tideout]

Thanks for the responses so far. Appreciated.  I understand there are "workarounds" like the 800K baht and other specifics but I'm wondering more about a system change.....I mean these options were there before but it seems the atmosphere has changed. I see a few here are not optimistic but I'm talking more about the attitude of it in some ways. Maybe the BJ "reassignment" was something of an adjustment by smarter, cooler heads in government (though I see another hundred arrested tonight!).  Has anyone heard a final answer on his transfer? I'm also wondering how long will the guys in uniform delay the election results - the effect on society and obviously immi.

 

Again, thanks for answers....even if it's just speculation.

[MRToMRT]

I was musing my years here in Thailand and I realized that those who say that things do not change are correct. Not many things have gotten easier here in my 20 odd years here. 

 

I just dont think theres a political will to reduce the beaurocracy in this specific area, theres no interest from the people to push the government and no wish of the immigration dept to reform itself and reduce jobs or "opportunities" (if you get my drift).

 

Mark my words (guess) that compulsory insurance will be added to the list soon on ret ext of stays. Dont expect anything easier or perks like in the malaysian retirement model. We are simply not economically important to the politicians.

 

 

[1FinickyOne]

5 hours ago, gk10002000 said:

In my mind my stock and fund income and dividends are more reliable

That is true historically but there are also years that I have had losses too... I can understand that weighing this factor might require some work, trust... maybe looking at a net worth statement? 

 

The thing is, immigration is an issue most everywhere these days and getting tougher... 

[Mike Teavee]

5 hours ago, JohnnyBD said:

Just park 800k THB in a Thai bank account. Use 400k during the year and bring back up to 800k if you want to stay another year. If you ever decide to leave, you can convert & cash out the 400k remaining balance into USD and carry it home. I use the 800k method. Easy peasy...

I've seen a couple of oblique references to changes coming in May, the most likely one being an increase to the 800K.

 

If it does happen, my best guess is that it would be increased to 1 Million & 80k monthly, with the Marriage Visa increasing to 600k & 50k monthly.

 

Pure Speculation - Which I thought was the topic for this thread ????

Edited April 29, 2019 by Mike Teavee

[gk10002000]

13 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

That is true historically but there are also years that I have had losses too... I can understand that weighing this factor might require some work, trust... maybe looking at a net worth statement? 

 

The thing is, immigration is an issue most everywhere these days and getting tougher... 

My values and net worth go up and down, but I don't care.  Nothing is going bankrupt or to 0.  The dividends and interest are relatively steady. 

[gk10002000]

5 hours ago, JohnnyBD said:

Just park 800k THB in a Thai bank account. Use 400k during the year and bring back up to 800k if you want to stay another year. If you ever decide to leave, you can convert & cash out the 400k remaining balance into USD and carry it home. I use the 800k method. Easy peasy...

yes it is easy.  But many people don't want to park 800k or the equivalent of 25 K USD over in a foreign country.  I earn interest on my money.  I won't be in Thailand every day of every year.  I prefer not to file FBAR paperwork with the US.  And due to the nature of my job and security clearances having any banking relationship over seas requires more reporting.  Not a deal breaker, just something I would prefer not to do.

[tideout]

3 hours ago, MRToMRT said:

I was musing my years here in Thailand and I realized that those who say that things do not change are correct. Not many things have gotten easier here in my 20 odd years here. 

 

I just dont think theres a political will to reduce the beaurocracy in this specific area, theres no interest from the people to push the government and no wish of the immigration dept to reform itself and reduce jobs or "opportunities" (if you get my drift).

 

Mark my words (guess) that compulsory insurance will be added to the list soon on ret ext of stays. Dont expect anything easier or perks like in the malaysian retirement model. We are simply not economically important to the politicians.

 

 

MRT, Thanks for the thoughtful post. I really appreciate the musing's side to it and take on the history of it. Take care.

[tideout]

2 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

I've seen a couple of oblique references to changes coming in May, the most likely one being an increase to the 800K.

 

If it does happen, my best guess is that it would be increased to 1 Million & 80k monthly, with the Marriage Visa increasing to 600k & 50k monthly.

 

Pure Speculation - Which I thought was the topic for this thread ????

Thanks Mike, I appreciate the thoughtful speculation. I hope you're not right about an increase at this time. That would certainly feel like a another concrete change that something's sliding off over the edge..... 

[thaitero]

I am optimistic..

I do not see so much problems of rules itself..

But implementation is quite messy at the moment but when they finally managed to get all online processes to work properly so people can make their reports there easily then everything will be just fine i think..:)

 

Meanwhile at least in Pattaya there are still agents for people who get confused easily or are just plain lazy.. ????

[totally thaied up]

4 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

f it does happen, my best guess is that it would be increased to 1 Million & 80k monthly, with the Marriage Visa increasing to 600k & 50k monthly.

I am hearing the same thing over several Facebook groups about such change in May but it is just speculative rumor. Until it happens it happens and a certain percentage of people including myself will be priced out of here. My wife wants no more money parked in a Thai bank when she sees what I make trading on the Stockmarket an she classes the banks as not strong. Just her thoughts. She prefers my money in Australia as an Accountant.

 

I think at some stage, a mandatory health fund will be set up. Too much money to be made in this sector. I think this is all just speculation (what this thread is about) but again, this is Thailand - we have a unstable Government and things have changed negatively over recent times, so who can tell.

Edited April 30, 2019 by totally thaied up

[JackThompson]

4 hours ago, MRToMRT said:

I just dont think theres a political will to reduce the beaurocracy in this specific area, theres no interest from the people to push the government and no wish of the immigration dept to reform itself and reduce jobs or "opportunities" (if you get my drift).

Yes, I do not see how we are a useful poker-chip in political negotiations.  The corruption of immigration seems to be the only constant, which provides an odd form of stability - in that one will likely always be able to "purchase an extension," via an agent.  But that is not the level of stability most retirees would like to have. 

[JimSaints]

1. Mandatory Health Insurance - Company picked by Thai Aut

2. 400/800k raised to 600/1,200k

3. Money in bank have to be there all year

[OJAS]

13 hours ago, gk10002000 said:

My suggested guidelines for income letter being issued are:

1:  Proof of pension, government, military, private company, social security.  Some documentation that may vary but should not be too hard to supply and validate.

2:  Proof of income from non wage activities:

Rental property, Stock dividends, Fund dividends.  Show IRS 1040, 1099 and bank statements with current holdings.  In my mind my stock and fund income and dividends are more reliable than many pension funds that are poorly funded.  And in my case, while I will have Social security in a year or two, my portfolio income I get is almost $70,000 USD now. 

3.  Other types of income NOT just distributions from a 401k or IRA.  I up front would expect and accept that while the IRS treats distributions from IRAs and 401ks as "income" that is not the steady type of income the Thais probably expected when Income method was allowed.

 

 

Much good this did us Brits! Our Embassy always required us to provide tangible evidence of this nature as a prerequisite to issuing their income confirmation letters - but they still pulled the plug on this particular service in any case.

 

My prediction made with supreme confidence is that the income confirmation letter/affidavit will now remain a thing of the past in the case of Americans, Australians, Brits and Danes for ever more.

[Jingthing]

27 minutes ago, JimSaints said:

1. Mandatory Health Insurance - Company picked by Thai Aut

2. 400/800k raised to 600/1,200k

3. Money in bank have to be there all year

Colombia, here we come?

 

Show pension income document under 25K Thai baht per month. 

 

U.S. embassy helps verify.

 

No import into Colombia required whatsoever.

 

No Colombia bank account required whatsoever.

 

Three years visa initially.

 

Then later permanent residence.

 

National health program buy in.

 

Edited April 30, 2019 by Jingthing

[mike787]

Aint gonna happen.  No evidence suggesting logic or common sense will prevail.  After 8+ yrs, my rose colored glasses are shattered, I see a different reality now.  Not going to play the stupid immigration guessing games.   My plan B is in the works and it does NOT include Thailand.  Wish it would return to the old Woodstock days where life was simple, cheap, safer, and fun.  The most I invested here is street food. Leaving now is easy, cheap, fast, with NO financial or emotional consequences.  

Edited April 30, 2019 by mike787

[GeorgeCross]

14 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Colombia, here we come?

 

Show pension income document under 25K Thai baht per month. 

 

U.S. embassy helps verify.

 

No import into Colombia required whatsoever.

 

No Colombia bank account required whatsoever.

 

Three years visa initially.

 

Then later permanent residence.

 

National health program buy in.

 

 

isn't it a little bit errr dangerous there?

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2019 by GeorgeCross

[Jingthing]

Just now, GeorgeCross said:

 

and dirt cheap nose bag too so if you do want to 'check out early' it'll be far less messy than doing a condo dive 

 

 

Yeah, no drugs available in Thailand, that's what they say.

[GeorgeCross]

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Yeah, no drugs available in Thailand, that's what they say.

 

haha got me before my edit 

[david555]

"If I would be doomsday thinking ", I would think about a more restriction on the ret .ext. more special a real proof the applicant is under a gov. pension & pension age  to receive a pension , so to be sure a non ending flow of pension is guaranteed by a foreign government and only ending by the applicant pensioner dead .

This would give immigration the best way of correct income is declared to them as those gov. pensions can deliver a proper documented yearly statement with  stamped seal ….and we al know that any civil servant worldwide LOVES stamps & seal  so do Thai I.O's

[Pib]

I project no changes in income requirements in the near term (several years at least) because of immigration disruptions over the last year that upset a lot of apple carts....farangs and Thais...to include HiSo, big business Thais.   Also, the economy is beginning to slow down and tougher immigration laws might worsen the economy by a little. 

 

Rumors before about more changes coming around May are probably based on immigration law changes Big Joke was going to propose to the govt in April.  But Big Joke was sent off to an inactive post (i.e., fired) in April for unknown reasons.   

 

[david555]

2 minutes ago, Pib said:

I project no changes in income requirements in the near term (several years at least) because of immigration disruptions over the last year that upset a lot of apple carts....farangs and Thais...to include HiSo, big business Thais.   Also, the economy is beginning to slow down and tougher immigration laws might worsen the economy by a little. 

 

Rumors before about more changes coming around May are probably based on immigration law changes Big Joke was going to propose to the govt in April.  But Big Joke was sent off to an inactive post (i.e., fired) in April for unknown reasons.   

 

Now you are suggesting that Thai gov.  use common sense ….?  

[Jingthing]

10 minutes ago, Pib said:

I project no changes in income requirements in the near term (several years at least) because of immigration disruptions over the last year that upset a lot of apple carts....farangs and Thais...to include HiSo, big business Thais.   Also, the economy is beginning to slow down and tougher immigration laws might worsen the economy by a little. 

 

Rumors before about more changes coming around May are probably based on immigration law changes Big Joke was going to propose to the govt in April.  But Big Joke was sent off to an inactive post (i.e., fired) in April for unknown reasons.   

 

I agree with those guesses but we are all just guessing. When I stated lack of optimism before I was referring to my feeling that the chances that the recent set of onerous visa changes will be ROLLED BACK seem very unlikely to me. 

Edited April 30, 2019 by Jingthing

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Never say never, but it's highly unlikely anything will change anytime soon. In the long run it comes down to who wins the election (forms the government). If the junta remains in power expect no rule changes or even more strict treatment of foreigners. If the other camp wins there might be some good news - though I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

The only thing that might effect change is if it kicks them where it hurts - the economy - if enough foreigners and tourists have enough and leave then it'll hurt. Unfortunately though that probably won't benefit any of us as we'll be long gone by the time they realize.