£ hits new low against the baht

[Kalasin Jo]

So what do Brits in Thailand think now that the £ has gone below 40 baht?  7 years ago I could get 55..My watershed used to be 50, then it had been to be  45, but now thai banks are offering under 40, as are the currency exchange markets. This is seriously challenging. No sign of this steady downward spiral reversing. The € is pretty steady, bit that's no help if your money comes from the UK. When I first started getting a retirement visa more than £16k did the job. Now you need £20,500. Thailand is getting too expensive for me, not because prices within Thailand are going up, although they have, but because of this. My wife of course does not understsnd why I have significantly less to spend!

[Mitkof Island]

Yes the Thai baht value is dropping like a rock. If they don,t turn it around soon they are asking for trouble. Every time it goes down i just spend less.

[madmen]

Good time for anybody owning property bought at much better exchange rates to sell. You don't need to make a profit on the property because you will kill it on exchange rates.

Gonna do that myself with oz dollar but may wait another year or 2 as the AUD looks like it may drop to historic lows of 15 bhat and then head back to Oz for several years play tourist and wait for the bounce

Edited June 3, 2019 by madmen

[sammieuk1]

My wife of course does not understsnd why I have significantly less to spend!

 

The penny that used to be a pound finally dropped for my Mrs today and conceded a future moving plan out of this smoke hole is shelved indefinitely???? 

[Swedenlars]

So what do Brits in Thailand think now that the £ has gone below 40 baht?  7 years ago I could get 55..My watershed used to be 50, then it had been to be  45, but now thai banks are offering under 40, as are the currency exchange markets. This is seriously challenging. No sign of this steady downward spiral reversing. The € is pretty steady, bit that's no help if your money comes from the UK. When I first started getting a retirement visa more than £16k did the job. Now you need £20,500. Thailand is getting too expensive for me, not because prices within Thailand are going up, although they have, but because of this. My wife of course does not understsnd why I have significantly less to spend!

I would think once the Brexit turmoil aka chaos is over the £ will get stronger again.

Gesendet von meinem SM-N950F mit Tapatalk

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Brexit of course has something to do with it, but generally the baht has been going stronger against all major currencies over the past 4-5 years. 20% against the Euro, 25-30% against UKP and AUD, and a "modest" 10% against the USD.

 

It goes against common sense due to the political situation, however tourism sharply increased close to 100% over the same time period, and 400% over the last 15 years. A large percentage of the Thai economy currently runs on foreign money buying the baht. Add Chinese and other investors buying property, and of course expats bringing in western salaries, and combine it with the fact Thailand exports more than it imports, and it starts making sense.

 

Sadly, the baht will likely only stop appreciating when it becomes too expensive for tourists to vacation here, retirees to live here, and the strong baht will cripple exports. We're already seeing signs of those though - less tourism this year, retirees who can't afford it leaving, and exporters complaining about the strong baht.

[blackcab]

Moved to the Economy and Banking forum.

 

Off topic posts and a reply have been removed.

[DrJack54]

8 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Brexit of course has something to do with it, but generally the baht has been going stronger against all major currencies over the past 4-5 years. 20% against the Euro, 25-30% against UKP and AUD, and a "modest" 10% against the USD.

 

It goes against common sense due to the political situation, however tourism sharply increased close to 100% over the same time period, and 400% over the last 15 years. A large percentage of the Thai economy currently runs on foreign money buying the baht. Add Chinese and other investors buying property, and of course expats bringing in western salaries, and combine it with the fact Thailand exports more than it imports, and it starts making sense.

 

Sadly, the baht will likely only stop appreciating when it becomes too expensive for tourists to vacation here, retirees to live here, and the strong baht will cripple exports. We're already seeing signs of those though - less tourism this year, retirees who can't afford it leaving, and exporters complaining about the strong baht.

Very sensible post. Again not directly related to this forum. One thing you might add is that Thai have their own "interference" with their exchange rate. However that's not for this forum.

Edited June 3, 2019 by DrJack54

[FritsSikkink]

1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Brexit of course has something to do with it, but generally the baht has been going stronger against all major currencies over the past 4-5 years. 20% against the Euro, 25-30% against UKP and AUD, and a "modest" 10% against the USD.

 

It goes against common sense due to the political situation, however tourism sharply increased close to 100% over the same time period, and 400% over the last 15 years. A large percentage of the Thai economy currently runs on foreign money buying the baht. Add Chinese and other investors buying property, and of course expats bringing in western salaries, and combine it with the fact Thailand exports more than it imports, and it starts making sense.

 

Sadly, the baht will likely only stop appreciating when it becomes too expensive for tourists to vacation here, retirees to live here, and the strong baht will cripple exports. We're already seeing signs of those though - less tourism this year, retirees who can't afford it leaving, and exporters complaining about the strong baht.

The piss poor retirees, don't make much of an impact on the Thai economy.

[madmen]

2 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Brexit of course has something to do with it, but generally the baht has been going stronger against all major currencies over the past 4-5 years. 20% against the Euro, 25-30% against UKP and AUD, and a "modest" 10% against the USD.

 

It goes against common sense due to the political situation, however tourism sharply increased close to 100% over the same time period, and 400% over the last 15 years. A large percentage of the Thai economy currently runs on foreign money buying the baht. Add Chinese and other investors buying property, and of course expats bringing in western salaries, and combine it with the fact Thailand exports more than it imports, and it starts making sense.

 

Sadly, the baht will likely only stop appreciating when it becomes too expensive for tourists to vacation here, retirees to live here, and the strong baht will cripple exports. We're already seeing signs of those though - less tourism this year, retirees who can't afford it leaving, and exporters complaining about the strong baht.

Nothing to do with tourists . Its the massive $220 billion reserves 

[scubascuba3]

My wife of course does not understsnd why I have significantly less to spend!
 
The penny that used to be a pound finally dropped for my Mrs today and conceded a future moving plan out of this smoke hole is shelved indefinitely[emoji848] 

Give the girlfriends and wives a pay cut and say its brexit

[scubascuba3]

The piss poor retirees, don't make much of an impact on the Thai economy.

Chinese stay for 2-3 days only and don't come back and don't support local businesses like falang do

[brokenbone]

5 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

Very sensible post. Again not directly related to this forum. One thing you might add is that Thai have their own "interference" with their exchange rate. However that's not for this forum.

the only reason for a state that doesnt sell its currency like another commodity, i.e US, to manipulate their currency upwards, is if they plan a major purchase like military hardware, or if they have large debt they wish to pay off at favorable exchange

[SheungWan]

6 hours ago, Swedenlars said:

I would think once the Brexit turmoil aka chaos is over the £ will get stronger again.

If Brexit is pulled or Soft Brexit passed, then Sterling goes on a serious bounce. On the other side, the risk of Hard Brexit pulls Sterling down and we are looking at 35 baht next stop.

[mshs]

"Again I saw that under the sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all."

[FritsSikkink]

6 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

11 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

The piss poor retirees, don't make much of an impact on the Thai economy.

Chinese stay for 2-3 days only and don't come back and don't support local businesses like falang do

There we go again, the Chinese spend more per day then any other nationality. They DO support the local businesses but not the girlie bars you are referring to.

[madmen]

6 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

11 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

The piss poor retirees, don't make much of an impact on the Thai economy.

Chinese stay for 2-3 days only and don't come back and don't support local businesses like falang do

Not true. Go to the big malls in Bangkok and they are crawling with chinese most carrying shopping bags and many hi so labelled. They are big spenders and most welcome by store owners. There are so many chinese in T21 screaming , yelling lol I stopped going

Edited June 4, 2019 by madmen

[sanemax]

Just now, madmen said:

Nonsense. Go to the big malls in Bangkok and they are crawling with chinese most carrying shopping bags and many hi so labelled. They are big spenders and most welcome by store owners. There are so many chinese in T21 screaming , yelling lol I stopped going

Thats not really local business though , ex-pat felangs are more likely to live out the way somewhere and use local businesses , especially those living away from cities

[madmen]

1 minute ago, sanemax said:

Thats not really local business though , ex-pat felangs are more likely to live out the way somewhere and use local businesses , especially those living away from cities

Sure but you won't see any chinese there so it a moot point.

[geoffbezoz]

8 minutes ago, madmen said:

Not true. Go to the big malls in Bangkok and they are crawling with chinese most carrying shopping bags and many hi so labelled. They are big spenders and most welcome by store owners. There are so many chinese in T21 screaming , yelling lol I stopped going

They only buy umbrellas don't they ?  ????

[scubascuba3]

There we go again, the Chinese spend more per day then any other nationality. They DO support the local businesses but not the girlie bars you are referring to.

But they only stay for 2-3days, spot the flaw? I didn't mention girlie bars,if that's where you go up to you, a better example is the many smaller guesthouses farang stay in run by thai families

[scubascuba3]

Not true. Go to the big malls in Bangkok and they are crawling with chinese most carrying shopping bags and many hi so labelled. They are big spenders and most welcome by store owners. There are so many chinese in T21 screaming , yelling lol I stopped going

I'm not referring to shopping malls, of course tourists go there

[toofarnorth]

7 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

14 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

My wife of course does not understsnd why I have significantly less to spend!
 
The penny that used to be a pound finally dropped for my Mrs today and conceded a future moving plan out of this smoke hole is shelved indefinitely 

Give the girlfriends and wives a pay cut and say its brexit

I daren't do that or one of my shrinking privileges will be cut off. I try to explain the current situation of now , today about 39.7 B - quid but then I get ' But so and so gets more '. Yes but his UK Gov. pension is higher than mins as I was 65 yo 7 years ago . ETC. When I was getting 70 - quid my TW got a salary of 5000B per month, she still does , When she decides she need a rise she will get one right up her BR Exit. There rant over , time to take a Calm.

[sanemax]

Just now, toofarnorth said:

I daren't do that or one of my shrinking privileges will be cut off. I try to explain the current situation of now , today about 39.7 B - quid but then I get ' But so and so gets more '. Yes but his UK Gov. pension is higher than mins as I was 65 yo 7 years ago . ETC. When I was getting 70 - quid my TW got a salary of 5000B per month, she still does , When she decides she need a rise she will get one right up her BR Exit. There rant over , time to take a Calm.

Tell her that the Australians only get 23 and the Americans get 28  

[steven100]

12 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Tell her that the Australians only get 23 and the Americans get 28  

Australians only get 21 ....  not 23.

[FritsSikkink]

32 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

 

 

But they only stay for 2-3days, spot the flaw? I didn't mention girlie bars,if that's where you go up to you, a better example is the many smaller guesthouses farang stay in run by thai families

 

The 10 million Chinese spend a lot more money in the Thai economy, end of discussion.

[geoffbezoz]

3 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

The 10 million Chinese spend a lot more money in the Thai economy, end of discussion.

Just a thought.   When those rich Chinese come to Thailand and buy up many things and, as you say, spend a lot of money.  I wonder if they are actually paying a high price for those fakes that came from China in the first place ? ????

[dotpoom]

The €uro people have had this for years. When I first came here about 19 years ago the €uro was about 54Bt....it's been continually dropping for years...now it's 35Bt.

I shared about this about 2 days ago...it's a nice little windfall for me if I decided to leave Thailand...I lodged my 800,000 Bt. when I first applied for my retirement ext. upon arriving here, put it completely out of my mind like I never had it (to make life easy at renewal times). I still often forget to take it into consideration when calculating my financial situation.

 

[Baerboxer]

14 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Brexit of course has something to do with it, but generally the baht has been going stronger against all major currencies over the past 4-5 years. 20% against the Euro, 25-30% against UKP and AUD, and a "modest" 10% against the USD.

 

It goes against common sense due to the political situation, however tourism sharply increased close to 100% over the same time period, and 400% over the last 15 years. A large percentage of the Thai economy currently runs on foreign money buying the baht. Add Chinese and other investors buying property, and of course expats bringing in western salaries, and combine it with the fact Thailand exports more than it imports, and it starts making sense.

 

Sadly, the baht will likely only stop appreciating when it becomes too expensive for tourists to vacation here, retirees to live here, and the strong baht will cripple exports. We're already seeing signs of those though - less tourism this year, retirees who can't afford it leaving, and exporters complaining about the strong baht.

 

My bank manager told me several weeks ago that many Thai exporters were very upset at what they see as a false high baht having a bad effect on their business. BoT denies supporting the currency.

 

The GBP has been steadily declining against the baht for several years. Brexit has made this worse but as you say not the only factor.

 

Very difficult to see the GBP gaining strength over the next several months with all the turmoil about new PM, Brexit and the constitution ongoing. 

 

The range had settled to 40-45 ThB to the GBP. Now it seems a new range of 35-40 will happen.

[david555]

37 minutes ago, dotpoom said:

The €uro people have had this for years. When I first came here about 19 years ago the €uro was about 54Bt....it's been continually dropping for years...now it's 35Bt.

I shared about this about 2 days ago...it's a nice little windfall for me if I decided to leave Thailand...I lodged my 800,000 Bt. when I first applied for my retirement ext. upon arriving here, put it completely out of my mind like I never had it (to make life easy at renewal times). I still often forget to take it into consideration when calculating my financial situation.

 

I seem to be in same situation , however I got only 47.75 to € approx. from stingy Kasikorn 11 years ago when I brought in the result of "burning home country ship", and put all on Thai bank , that money was meant for buying a condo ,I was 50% sure doing that , but now seeing Thai situation and 11 years later I changed the buying condo chance only to 5% and only if a not to refuse deal comes along.

So a 4 months after Brexit is saw what start happening , a declining Euro , later because Brexit even quicker , no good eye in the Brexit outcome I stopped transferring Euros and use the Bullet proof Baht for my living and ret. ext. ,so for the moment no  Brexit exchange losses , keeping my pension Euros in home country (can always transfer if needed) they keep being Euros in a Euro country ,same should count for Brits in their home country GBP stays GBP .

If I would change my Thai baht all now in Euros at that low € level , I would make more Euros out of it .

 

But now I start seeing worrying trend in Thai economics created by a non civilian government..., so I am planning for 4 years ahead …. highest a fifty/fifty Thailand presence on then O-A visa ( money can stay in E.U. home country bank , no seasoning  !! and back address in home country , no will needed for  "the inevitable..." , all nice arranged automatic official western way , avoiding a court hassle in Thailand for the left money after dying .

Edited June 4, 2019 by david555