The Thai Baht in 2022 – a prediction

[mfd101]

Two things to remember: (1) 'expert' = a drip under pressure (2) precision is not the same thing as accuracy.

[puipuitom]

8 hours ago, taichiplanet said:

i predict that an unknown mineral is found in Thailand of which one gram can power a large city for 1 year. Thailand will become immensely rich, so rich that the government will give everyone a free pickup and the price of petrol will be 5 Baht/Litre.

For sure you forgot the formula of Einstein; E = mc2. Even when 100 gram of matter + 100 g of anti-matter ( still theoretical)  would collide into each other, you will nog get so much energy.

But.. I understand the joke...

[Caldera]

I predict that there will be a return of political turmoil next year which will, combined with external factors, cause the Thai economy to tank. In 2022, the Thai baht will be significantly weaker against most major currencies and won't recover for at least a decade.

 

????

 

[Autonuaq]

What part did I miss?

 

A strong currency and tourism does not fit.

 

Not so long ago Thailand and South Koroea had about the same level and where comparable countries when they started Asean.

 

They are now prediciting that Thailand will be able In 3 years time catch up and become like South Korea?

 

This would be nice very to see of course, good for the happy view people and well divide people more.

 

More down to earth is that the bebts of the individuals in Thailand they are concernably high en Thailand does have a lack of labours. The labours will all return to home when back home is catching up as wel see around the world.

 

And the winner is:

Europe, A strong Thai Bath for the Europens will make that the economic refugees will change the direction to Thailand.

[madmen]

delete

 

 

[phka]

10 hours ago, Medway said:

Absolute rot. No one can possibly predict so far ahead. There are always changing factors which will effect monetary values. There may be a new administration in the White House. Brexit should and will be up and running in the UK. China can’t possibly continue as they are collapse will occur. This is absolute scare mongering and poor journalism at best.

Yea then it will be 20 baht to the £

[madmen]

Europeans , canadians and ozzies need to start planning for the worst especially those supporting families on the pension alone. The days of currency wild fluctuations are long gone and the steady years long down trend of foreign currency against the THB  is disturbing and very real and indicates the new norm for the next 10 years IMO unless some type of catastrophic event changes things.

[rocketman777]

Don't know about 2022 too far ahead

 

But the monthly chart of the US/TB strongly suggest a testing of the 2010 and 2013 previous lows of 29.54 after the breakthrough of the support at 31.22

This price is likely to be reached very shortly, probable within a month or less.

 

See attached chart

[ericthai]

14 hours ago, onera1961 said:

True no one can predict. But corporations pay large salary to people who work on this type of predictions for hedging. So we cannot discard those predictions and immerse ourselves in conspiracy theories only. Nobody will pay a salary to consipiracy theorists. We can only prepare ourself for this type predictions by advanced planning.

Sent from my moto g(7) using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

I dont see the bank of Thailand letting the THB get the strong. If the THB gets that strong it will kill exports. Just like when the govt rasied wages, allot of work (mostly textiles, who were already struggling) went to cambodia. 

[BestB]

3 minutes ago, ericthai said:

I dont see the bank of Thailand letting the THB get the strong. If the THB gets that strong it will kill exports. Just like when the govt rasied wages, allot of work (mostly textiles, who were already struggling) went to cambodia. 

BOT has its hands tight. 

If it tries to devalue, US will put Thailand for currency manipulator list and Thailand is already being watched.

 

If it unpegs it from US, another crash could happen.

 

So its a no win for BOT, the only thing they can do is drop the interest rates to ease the pressure but thats only short term solution

[onera1961]

I dont see the bank of Thailand letting the THB get the strong. If the THB gets that strong it will kill exports. Just like when the govt rasied wages, allot of work (mostly textiles, who were already struggling) went to cambodia. 

If they intervene inspire of a large foreign currency reserve, US and other countries may impose tariff for currency manipulation that will reduce exports.

Sent from my JKM-LX2 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Happy Grumpy]

Parity with GBP. 

[spidermike007]

20 hours ago, pookondee said:

IMO, every chance of exactly that happening. 

What we do know..

1. Robotics and technology will take more jobs.

2. USA. AUS and nearly all other majour countries will be/are dropping rates. 

3. Real estate values have been propping up economies, but expect big crashes as in the future, the pool of cash buyers able to buy will be miniscule as jobs get scarcer.

 

 

Constantly dropping interest rates will only put the next generation in further debt.

By allowing banks to charge whatever rates they please, in essance they are stealing money off investors (and people who do have money) to fund the debt of the other 70-80% in debt.

In the end it means NO-ONE will have money except for the 1% and thats when economies will really start to crash.

Their current policies are simply putting off the inevitable crash (massive correction of the markets). They are doing everything in their power to not allow a correction of the markets to take place, and that may lead to catastrophe down the road.

[rumak]

On 6/30/2019 at 5:46 AM, rooster59 said:

Other than sorting through the tea leaves or dusting off the crystal ball, this is the best we can do at a stab-in-the-dark as to where the Thai currency might be in three years time.

a stab-in-the-dark 

[TPI]

On 6/30/2019 at 8:43 AM, sammieuk1 said:

The EX.org rate for the pound is now a sickening 38.88 if your paid in pounds into the bank and have to change there its 38.5 in a never ending cycle of down 30% less in 3 years ????

So long as the "phu Yai's" continue to gouge baht out of the country and ship the money overseas the value of the baht will continue to rise, these rapacious S.O.B's. don't care how much damage they do to the country, they can always move to the UK or the US!!!

[TPI]

On 6/30/2019 at 11:38 AM, worgeordie said:

No need to read it I was here,OK the THB was devalued,

and it was a good time to buy property,which I did,but

the THB bounced back,and even with another coup,

 which would have affected other countries badly,

Thailand just kept sailing ahead,with the THB been

very strong ,even against major currencies.

 

Then you have the tourist industry,with many bad

reports,about scams,treatment of Farangs,changes

in immigration rules ,etc,etc,tourist still flock in,

 in huge numbers = Teflon Thailand.......for now,anyway.

 

regards Worgeordie

But then, why the need to force long stay "farang" (allowed by Scrabble) to load up their bank accounts? Could Thai banks need the liquidity? I'm not sure how many farang live long term in the Kingdom, it must be approaching 100,000, that by THB 800,000 = 80,000,000,000! Even allowing only 5 months a year its still a hefty sum to be lying around?

 

Could one see a rise in the farang deposit requirement, in the future, to offset the inability of Thai people to continue saving?

 

Just a thought!

[503726]

On 7/1/2019 at 5:25 AM, Benroon said:

Brexit, whilst it will shag the UK economy will make the FTSE an even better bet as most companies within it derive their profits from external currencies, so the ongoing destruction of the Brexit pound will deliver even better results. Markets move up again and Brexit will take years to fix so no danger of losing those gains.

 

What you say above about Brexit makes good sense to me. I imagine the fix, the effect of a return to stable trade, to take no less than 5 years so assets currently held in GBP may be stuck there beyond the low exchange rate for that time. 

 

I also agree with your earlier comments on the Baht strength. The trade surplus from tourism, currency reserve and absence of long term Quantitative Easing debt should make it an attractive currency to hold assets in. Perhaps it as an option as a haven against USD risk.