Worries rise as baht scales six-year high

[MarkyM3]

4 hours ago, NightSky said:

I’m in the Uk with the wife, she can’t beleive how cheap food is here, 1 gbp for a punnit of any fruit, 1gbp for 10 bananas, 2 gbp for palma ham and salami, 4gbp for a full cooked roasted chicken, 1 gbp for a litre of milk, 4 gbp for a 200g Nescafé gold coffee, the free range eggs are cheaper and gigantic here in comparison to those tiny Thai battery eggs and the list goes on etc etc etc. 

 

She wants to move here now to live a better standard, I can’t blame her etc things do look rather cheap and lush here at the moment.

Thai fiancee is consistently surprised at how inexpensive food (and quality and choice of it), good quality clothing (I don't mean shopping at F&F), things/places to do in the UK when she is visiting me here (SE UK), compared to home (Bangkok). She also much prefers the weather here during May to September months. 

 

I stay in Bangkok for 3-4 months a year, working in London the rest of the year. 

 

Still, plenty of other aspects where Thailand is ahead - weather outside of the May- September months in UK, islands/beaches/mountains, family ties for her, lower housing and utliities costs etc.

 

I'm just about to hit 49 and had been working on the idea of some kind of semi-retirement based in Thailand starting in the next couple of years, until my private pension arrives at 60. But recent developments (visa hassles, accelerating cost of living, lifestyle changes) are starting to put me increasingly off. I would prefer to split my time 50:50 between UK and Thailand, to keep the best of both places. 

 

 

 

[MarkyM3]

5 hours ago, MaxYakov said:

Actually not. I don't believe they sell any 'food'. ????

 

Not sure why people constantly feel the need to persistently denigrate mickey Ds...I eat loads of Thai food but I like a bit of fast food now and occasionally, too.

 

I enjoy a Big Mac and fries occasionally from McThai, the beef tastes just fine to me. Doesn't seem to put Thais off eating in there either! 

 

Fairly sure the beef cattle were kept in better conditions than most animals are in Thailand. Have a wander past Klong Toey market in Bangkok and see what goes on there. 

  

[Lacessit]

8 hours ago, Guderian said:

I went to my favourite steak restaurant in Pattaya last week, Steak & Co, specialising in imported Australian steak. In spite of the sharp fall in the value of the AUD against the Baht, the price of a small fillet had gone up by around 100 Baht, or 15%. Is there a shortage of Australian steak or something that's causing prices to skyrocket? Or is it just blatant profiteering by somebody in the supply chain?

Australia is in drought, and most beef farms have destocked. High demand, insufficient supply.

[soistalker]

Thais lack a basic grasp of economics. They will ask an unobtainable price for a condo rental, and let it sit for a year empty rather than lower the price to get a tenant. Bars and restaurants raise prices when they have fewer customers, and stores refuse to lower the cost of imported goods when they see currencies move. The last is because we are farang, so they wont pass the lower cost on. 

And the "PM" doesnt say anything about the baht appreciation because he doesnt understand economics...how could he? Do they teach that at dictator school?

[Kalasin Jo]

13 hours ago, Cadbury said:

 

More gloom on the way.

"......Jitipol Puksamatanan, Bangkok-based chief strategist at Krung Thai Bank Pcl. The third most-accurate forecaster for the currency last quarter predicts the baht will rise to 30.25 per dollar by the end of the year".

Another kick in the teeth for exports and still PM Prayut says nothing, his silence is deafening which is a worry.

One would expect him to say something since he recently appointed himself to the Chairmanship of the Council of Economic Ministers. Surely that makes him the official spokesperson. One can only conclude he is unsure of himself and doesn't know what to say.

Prayutnomics, it appears, is not working. Except perhaps that the 20 Year plan will ensure the rich will be richer and the poor will be poorer.

https://fortune.com/2019/08/06/thai-baht-currency-war-trade/

The rich get richer the poor get poorer. Very true in Thailand, but an age old adage anywhere. There is though a growing more affluent educated middle class in Thailand who's parents in the villages in the provinces still eat and sleep on the floor in their wooden houses, living from hand to mouth, growing rice, running Mom and Pop shops with tiny margins, cooking up food and growing garden produce to sell in the village markets. For them the strength of the baht is an irrelevance. It is they who look after the grandkids whilst their children may work in white collar jobs far away in Bangkok and, of course send money home.

[sandmonster]

1 hour ago, cme said:

Since I first came here the $, Eu and £ have all fallen at least 3-40% against the Baht. This means all imported food should be at least 30% cheaper than than they were at that time, even compensating for manufacturers increases. However, what happens is that prices increase each year, usually at a rate corresponding to the rate they should fall. This means massive and incredible profits are being made, year in year out for the handful of powerful families that control everything that enters Thailand. It's perfect for them, with their ever more and stronger Baht profits they can purchase more and more cheaper $, overseas properties etc etc. Should the Baht ever fall, then they can bring back the overseas profits for even more Baht. What's not to like?

If the product source cost has fallen say 30%, the overall drop in total cost of the product to the retailer on the shelves won't be anywhere near 30%. The reasons are that the actual cost to land a product on the shelf has a lot of costs which are not in the source currency e.g in US$ ( freight ), or Baht ( logistics, warehousing, retail costs, salaries, marketing, dividends etc ). You might be surprised to find that the actual product in source currency is only a small proportion of the final selling price. Depends on the product but the actual ex-factory price of the product might be say 20% of the retail price. So in that case, only the 20% portion has fallen by 30%, whilst the majority baht costs probably rise each year.

 

 

[shy coconut]

13 hours ago, Nice Boyd said:

Cancer in a Can , Good idea

You don't have to smoke them!!

[shy coconut]

10 hours ago, Jane Dough said:

I agree with you. If I ever run out of vegemite, then I have to start on the marmite. A reminder to get back to the store.....it's one of the few food items I would be prepared to be fleeced over!

 

Rooster

Food items is a complete stretch for both the brands mentioned.

 

Toxic sludge would be far more accurate!

[stigar]

oilprice rais alot now..good for my NOK because Norway economy is run by oilprices..the central bank maybe raise the interest rate this week...hoping the best

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wreckingcountry]

Totally artificially over valued, and boy when the storm hits its gonna smash a lot!


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[metisdead]

An inflammatory post and the replies have been removed.

 

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed as well as the replies:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

 

Some off topic posts and replies were removed as well. 

[brianthainess]

On 9/15/2019 at 8:15 AM, Cadbury said:

will ensure the rich will be richer and the poor will be poorer.

https://fortune.com/2019/08/06/thai-baht-currency-war-trade/

YUK !

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, NightSky said:

I’m in the Uk with the wife, she can’t beleive how cheap food is here, 1 gbp for a punnit of any fruit, 1gbp for 10 bananas, 2 gbp for palma ham and salami, 4gbp for a full cooked roasted chicken, 1 gbp for a litre of milk, 4 gbp for a 200g Nescafé gold coffee, the free range eggs are cheaper and gigantic here in comparison to those tiny Thai battery eggs and the list goes on etc etc etc. 

 

She wants to move here now to live a better standard, I can’t blame her etc things do look rather cheap and lush here at the moment.

You should take her to Sheffield market, Pad Thai at £8.50 would be a bit of an eye opener.

Generally you are quite right but there is a bit more to the cost of living than grocery products.

 

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, Thaifriends said:

 

Are these fruits and chicken made in China? ????

Ironically most of the chicken in the UK comes from Thailand.

[sanemax]

On 9/15/2019 at 2:52 PM, sandyf said:

You should take her to Sheffield market, Pad Thai at £8.50 would be a bit of an eye opener.

Generally you are quite right but there is a bit more to the cost of living than grocery products.

 

And these a bit more to food prices than pad Thai from Sheffield 

[sandyf]

Just now, sanemax said:

And these a bit more to food prices than pad Thai from Sheffield 

It was a tongue in cheek comment regarding a Thai lady, sorry if you found it to be anything else.

[zydeco]

19 hours ago, Ashto said:

You’ve lost me a bit. Is it 500g for 249 baht,  or 2x500g for 249 baht?

 

PS may have to move this to the cheese forum ????

Sometimes the discussion topics in TVF really are important!

[brianthainess]

17 hours ago, dallen52 said:

Her in doors (my thai partner) does not understand why I have 20,000 baht a month less.

"What you do with it" she says

My missus thinks now i've changed to marriage extension, i have 400,000 more a year to spend.  ???? ???? ????

[brianthainess]

47 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You should take her to Sheffield market, Pad Thai at £8.50 would be a bit of an eye opener.

Generally you are quite right but there is a bit more to the cost of living than grocery products.

 

Is it a Thai selling it ?

[sandyf]

8 minutes ago, brianthainess said:

Is it a Thai selling it ?

Yes. We only called round as the owner had gone on holiday and my mates wife had stepped in to run the stall. I said it was outrageous and she just shrugged and pointed to the stall next door selling fish and chips at £7.50. A question of what you can get away with.

[lapamita]

12 hours ago, sandmonster said:

If the product source cost has fallen say 30%, the overall drop in total cost of the product to the retailer on the shelves won't be anywhere near 30%. The reasons are that the actual cost to land a product on the shelf has a lot of costs which are not in the source currency

 

In Thailand ,Operating margins of Retailers are the highest among the western world liested companys  ( check balance of bigC,Makro compare to Ahold,tesco uk,Carefour).

They can increase margin y over y , bcs lack of competition and stupid consumers.

The argument of tax  and transport is minor

 

2 examples

I importetd a coffeemaschine from Italy, get refunded 20% VAT payed in Thailand &% vat and importtax 15% .was total about 25%... so at the end product price was same like in europe ( transport was 6% of good and i shippeed 1 , if shipp wholesale costs would be less than 1 %)..so why the coffeemaschine same brand cost here nearly double ??? ( my price tot 55k ans shop here 99k?? i bought one from a reatiler in IT him makes already profit,and wholebuyers buy sure cheaper than me when they order factory direct)

2.

Apples from Australia ( last 3 yrs  thb increase value about 30% compare to AUD)

why product price go up

 

Jazz apples pack when startet sale at bigc was 59thb , than 69 with sign reduced from 79, than 79 reduced from 89 ,and so on..until 109 thb

Reason.. an automated sales programm running,as long sales not drop, they increase margin on product further,and as long thais buy everything ( cant remember price bfr,cant calculate per KG or per ltr ).....as long a company would further increase margin

 

 

last

 

behind  the bahtstrenght is a simple econ. reason

1 low goverment dept and more growth compare to major countrys

2.CAPITAL inflow , the biggest argument , funds still see thailand as save heaven compare to rest in south east asia. They like prayut, bcs him strong. They , institunional investors ,dont care about the rest

 

.. if you see capital inflow negative..the baht would be quick in a heavy downtrend.........but until now its not around the corner...........

 

in todays world, not important a recession or less tourists ..international capital is the mover for the currency, as long its a free trade currency like the THB.. to much  cheap money with the big boys made by centralbanks worldwide

 

 

 

 

 

[mikebell]

On 9/15/2019 at 9:34 AM, Nyezhov said:

What cheese was that then? I have to go to Tops to stock up on my fav coffee.

What brand of coffee?  I can't find any tasty Thai filter coffee to compare with Vietnam stuff.

[Jiggo]

On 9/15/2019 at 9:35 AM, Nyezhov said:

Dude that is simply such a dumb statement. You think that only the Thais are greedy? Ever been to France? Or Mexico?

France or Mexico, thats very diverse.

[Percy P]

On 9/15/2019 at 8:35 AM, Xonax said:

Am I the only one wondering, why non of the extremely expensive imported grocery products, that most of us foreigners buy, are not becoming cheaper in the stores, when they are becoming so much cheaper to purchase?

Prices are not changed overnight. 

[ThePioneer]

1 minute ago, Percy P said:

Prices are not changed overnight. 

Neither has the Baht strength happened overnight

[Percy P]

2 hours ago, sanemax said:

And these a bit more to food prices than pad Thai from Sheffield 

Thailand in general is cheap in Baht. Converting foreign currency into Baht is the expensive part. Due th the £ loss of value I am paying twice as much in  £ for the same item in Baht. And the shop keepers don't benefit from it. Only the Government benefits in their Foreign Currency Account. The more tourists keeps the Baht high.

[6NS]

21 hours ago, JohanB said:

”Yes, the best performing currency in the SE Asia.

My god how good I am to manage the economy”

This rise of the Thai Baht is simple. China manipulates the Baht like they do there own currency. If the Baht was cheaper companies would move to Thailand to manufacture. Not rocket science. China more than ever needs every edge they can get to keep from loosing the markets they still have under un-fare practices. Get used to it. Thailand is in China's pocket.

[MartiniMan]

The real joke is the prices dont come down yet but the baht keeps going higher in strength - this means all import food should be going down but they just keep rising the prices

Sometimes I am really shocked at how they dont understand economics but then I remember - there are no real schools here so what to expect

Soon we have a very bad economic period here I think its best to get out to America before you are stuck in the <deleted> guys

[MartiniMan]

1 hour ago, Percy P said:

Thailand in general is cheap in Baht. Converting foreign currency into Baht is the expensive part. Due th the £ loss of value I am paying twice as much in  £ for the same item in Baht. And the shop keepers don't benefit from it. Only the Government benefits in their Foreign Currency Account. The more tourists keeps the Baht high.

This is totally incorrect

The baht is high because they have only done 1 rate cut and will not print more money

Everyone else has allocated for the feds movements but Thailand continues to make its currency artificially high without providing any easing except a 15 bps cut 

It is now the most expensive currency in asia whilst the GDP is at 77% consumer debt

So obviously it will have a massive crash soon it's just a matter of time but when it does crash the other side will mean people have to take a sip of the american dream and realise that protectionist trade is not beneficial and only acts as a noose around your neck

Look at vietnam it is now overtaking thailand and I believe next year the news will finally spread and people will realise vietnam is much better than thailand because they allow you to do business and do not pump their currency or place 200% import taxes that goes no where

Where ever it does go its not into schools, technical colleges, transportation or recreational facilities thats for damn sure

But the people dont realise yet. Maybe one day they will grow a pair of balls and find their voice but for now they just take it like a brit - right up the ass and say 'thank you very much' as the saying goes

[Assurancetourix]

22 hours ago, Time Traveller said:

What do they expect when a country of 60 million people has 40 million foreign tourists visit every year? 

The currency will only strengthen.

 

I would like your reasoning to be fair

This is not exactly what happens in France with more than 80 million tourists each year for 68 million people ...

The euro sinks a little more each day ..