ADB drops Thai growth forecast to 3%

[webfact]

ADB drops Thai growth forecast to 3%

By Wichit Chaitrong
The Nation

 

 

The Asian Development Bank has lowered its growth forecast for the Thai economy to 3 per cent but is optimistic that conditions will improve next year.

 

Principal economist Thiam Hee Ng said in Bangkok on Wednesday (September 25) that the downgrade from 3.9 per cent stemmed from the global economic slowdown, the US-China trade dispute and the strong baht.

 

Thiam Hee Ng

 

He said the bank foresaw a slightly higher growth rate at 3.2 per cent next year, due largely to infrastructure investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor, but was conscious of the risk in any delays in the investment.

 

Among positive indicators the bank considered were substantial interest among foreigners in investment incentives and the Board of Investment’s report of more foreign direct investment in the pipeline.

 

Chinese and Japanese manufacturers are planning to relocate their production bases in Thailand and elsewhere in Southeast Asia to avoid higher tariff rates imposed on Chinese goods by the US government.

 

But Hee Ng warned that the trade tensions would continue to hamper the global economy overall and have an impact on Thai exports and tourism.

 

“The super-strong baht partly weighed down exports and also caused slower growth among tourist arrivals in the first half of the year,” he noted.

The baht has appreciated not only against US dollar but also other currencies.

 

A rate cut by the central bank would likely do little to weaken the baht, he said. Investors see the Thai economy as a safe haven due to a large current-account surplus and significant foreign reserves.

 

 

The ADB also revised downward its forecast for Asia’s growth as a whole to 5.4 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent next. 

 

It cited slower growth in China, India and other economies in the region, as well as uncertainty stemming from escalating trade tensions and Brexit.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30376722

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-09-26

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

[RichardColeman]

More fantasy in this than Tolkein 

[Momofarang]

Keep going Thailand, your growth rate is now half of that of your neighbours, namely Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines... Great leadership you got, hopefully we'll see the wall go down before we die.

[Jimbo2014]

The annual ritual of cutting growth and other economic forecasts continues, along with the annual ritual of finger pointing and profound optimism for the year ahead.  ????

Edited September 26, 2019 by Jimbo2014

[Cadbury]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Among positive indicators the bank considered were substantial interest among foreigners in investment incentives and the Board of Investment’s report of more foreign direct investment in the pipeline.

Along with the disgraceful performance of the Thailand government engaging in street gutter fighting with Hopewell to try and avoid paying what has been awarded by the Supreme Court. 

This must be a real red flag warning for potential investors.

[mikebell]

Why would any foreign company set up in Thailand?  They immediately yield 51% of it to the locals.  It's the same with the house buying scam perpetuated here by lawyers and auditors.  You never own more than 49% of your own home.

[Eric Loh]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

ADB drops Thai growth forecast to 3%

Not that the military government care even a bit as long so long as the military budget gets higher and untouchable.  

[Bert Jones]

Mike Bell "Why would any foreign company set up in Thailand?  They immediately yield 51% of it to the locals.  It's the same with the house buying scam perpetuated here by lawyers and auditors.  You never own more than 49% of your own home."

 

Is that true?

[Tayaout]

2 minutes ago, Bert Jones said:

Mike Bell "Why would any foreign company set up in Thailand?  They immediately yield 51% of it to the locals.  It's the same with the house buying scam perpetuated here by lawyers and auditors.  You never own more than 49% of your own home."

 

Is that true?

Probably not if you are a multinational with deep pocket and register with the BOI. 

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

The Asian Development Bank has lowered its growth forecast for the Thai economy to 3 per cent

But the military budget appears to be immune to such lower economic predictions.

The military had a 4.2% rise over defense spending figures from 2018, coming after an increase during the previous year of around 5%. https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what-does-thailands-2019-defense-budget-mean/

But it has been my contention that the military budget disclosed to the parliament only reflects direct funding to the Ministry of Defense and does not reflect indirect funding. Typically, various government ministries such as the Interior and Agriculture might receive as part of their budget, funding to be used to reimburse the military for support services (ie., drilling wells and flood berms for farmers?).

[Scot123]

2 hours ago, Srikcir said:

But the military budget appears to be immune to such lower economic predictions.

The military had a 4.2% rise over defense spending figures from 2018, coming after an increase during the previous year of around 5%. https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what-does-thailands-2019-defense-budget-mean/

But it has been my contention that the military budget disclosed to the parliament only reflects direct funding to the Ministry of Defense and does not reflect indirect funding. Typically, various government ministries such as the Interior and Agriculture might receive as part of their budget, funding to be used to reimburse the military for support services (ie., drilling wells and flood berms for farmers?).

Reimburse the military or reinburse the Generals private accounts? To call the Green Mafia in Thailand military or army/navy is an insult to every real soldier/sailor in the real world. It is so insulting. How these generals accumulate vast fortunes from relitive small wages is disgraceful nothing is done. 

[Cake Monster]

8 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Along with the disgraceful performance of the Thailand government engaging in street gutter fighting with Hopewell to try and avoid paying what has been awarded by the Supreme Court. 

This must be a real red flag warning for potential investors.

There are a lot more " Red Flags " out there than just the Bunfight with Hopewell.

Contraction in the Economy will soon see some big Investors in Manufacturing pull out or curtail drastically  and. due to increasing costs, lack of Skilled Labour and failing infrastructure.

large Manufacturers only need a small reduction in Global Sales to relocate their Investment for the next 10 years or so.

One of the Major failings of the Thai people and their Government, is that they have absolutely ZERO forward planning or thinking.

[HeyHeyHey]

3% hahaha

 

Rice export down 44% in August

Overall export excluding gold 9.8% down in August

 

TAT spinning positive growth for tourism, but probably not when you consider how many tourism stimulus are on the way

 

Filipino export to the US went UP by 8.9% in August

For the first eight months of 2019, Vietnam’s total exports climbed 8.1% from a year earlier 

[Isaan sailor]

Only Thai thinking would conclude you don’t need to reduce interest rates.  Especially if you’re raking in hot money from mysterious foreign sources...

Edited September 26, 2019 by Isaan sailor

[kevin612]

Usd is strong, but the Thai baht is super strong. Thailand is too expensive. Can you hear me, Thai government?