Thailand's surging baht shatters expat dreams of easy retirement

[metisdead]

Some more inflammatory posts and replies have been removed. 

[emptypockets]

1 hour ago, brian2f2f said:

How about for starters they are getting stricter and stricter about inforcing the laws against us yet at the same time getting more and more leiant about enforcing laws against thais. We are expected to abey the law. Ut the local thais get to chose if they wish to follow or not without fear or evem threat of anything happening to them. Enforcing precisting immigtation laws while adding more new and more difficult ones. How many foriengers have been arrested lately for prostition and how many thais have been. Despite areas that are knowm for high numbers if thais doing so. Going ti those places claiming no thais are selling pussy but as soon as a non thai is there doing it. Please show me a legally written document showing legal proof that enforcing laws against non citizens while not against the citizens. Thus being cslled a duble standard legally. How this legally cam be called treating us good and fair. 

Get a proper job.!!

[phka]

If its about the uk pound to Thai baht the loony leavers who voted brexit have got no right to moan, they brought this mess on thselves just as the economy was doing really well and the pound was gaining strength, now they can put up with it. Som nam na

[billd766]

4 hours ago, baansgr said:

Wow...took that long to come up with that....I'm back for a few weeks unexpected but most I know are now in pastures new....SE Asia or other....and to add apart from the expense....my first attempt to have a beer in pattaya turned into some yaba head shouting at me....Thailand is done and finished, no repeat visitors or expats....expensive, rude, just a real damn nasty place to retire

You are talking about Pattaya.

 

Up country I have never experienced a problem like that. We used to have several yaba heads but they seem to have died off.

 

Most of the people I talk to and deal with are Thai and many I have known over the years yet I still get politeness and genuine smiles and I do the same in return.

 

I live in my wife's house on her land and it doesn't bother me. We live simply and have no debts but we have cut back over the years.

 

I have no experience over the last few years of the tourist areas so I cannot comment on that but of the 15 or so expats living out here none have returned to their home countries nor have plams to do so.

[EricTh]

But I just read that speculation of Baht is over a few days ago.

 

Now, the USD has dropped against Baht.

 

[sanemax]

12 hours ago, phka said:

If its about the uk pound to Thai baht the loony leavers who voted brexit have got no right to moan, they brought this mess on thselves just as the economy was doing really well and the pound was gaining strength, now they can put up with it. Som nam na

UK Politics has nothing to do with the surging Baht .

The UK voting Brexit isnt the reason as to why the Baht is so strong  

[sambum]

34 minutes ago, Samuel Smith said:

shurely 2005 ????

"Shurely" you are correct Sir - my apologies!

[sambum]

38 minutes ago, sambum said:

In 2015 I was getting 73 baht to the pound! Happy days indeed!

Should of course read 2005!

[emptypockets]

1 hour ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

When I bought my house here the Baht was around 75 to the Pound. The government's financial requirements were also half of what they are now. So please don't tell me about bad planning resulting in being close to the wire. Show me anyone who planned for their currency to halve in value and for government demands to double and I'll show you a liar. 

Anyone who had looked at a simple chart of the historical yearly exchange rates would have realised 75 baht was an aberration and unlikely to be supported indefinitely.

It's called due diligence.

You shouldn't complain as your house has doubled in pound value.

Some guys have nothing to fall back on.

 

[Samuel Smith]

3 minutes ago, sambum said:

"Shurely" you are correct Sir - my apologies!

Don't call me shurely ????

 

 

[sambum]

35 minutes ago, transam said:

Doubt it....????.......????

Ooops! Cancel 2015 and substitute 2005! ????

[Fairynuff]

8 hours ago, quandow said:

Surged? A bit of an exaggeration, and if you planned your finances that close to the wire then som nom na.

Not everyone plans for or expects the exchange to change by 50%. Not everybody can be as astute as you are. And fortunately not everyone has the same nasty attitude as you appear to have. Remember, anyone’s circumstances can change, even yours

[dcnx]

8 hours ago, sungod said:

I lost all interest when I started reading quotes from Niels Colov, it lost credibility at this point,  thousands leaving? Don't know of any personally.

I know 12 and counting. 
 

But yea, Niels is a.... well... you know.

[khunPer]

80,000 retirees x 800,000 baht is a 64 billion baht industry..!

[Caldera]

Boo-hoo, cry me a river. I'm fine with the baht.

[NoshowJones]

8 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Sounds like another fool not planning his life properly with no escape route.

I always liked and agreed with your Posts Richard, always looked on you as one of Thaivisas

more sensible posters, but now very sadly disappointed in you.

[sanemax]

12 hours ago, Caldera said:

Boo-hoo, cry me a river. I'm fine with the baht.

You may well be, but other people are not .

This thread is about them, no need for you to contribute 

[Steve Vincent]

let’s look at the bigger picture and ex pats who’ve purchased property in Thailand. If you moved to Thailand when the baht was weak .... take myself 72 baht to the pound ! 
720,000 baht = 10,000 pounds property good value 

-

todays exchange rates 36 = 360,000 baht only = 10,000 sterling 

making the markets volatile.  Both examples ......

-

when arriving a million baht was just under 14k sterling 

today million baht almost 25k sterling ...therefor those purchasing property today will be left with negative equity and those that purchased before the big boom are laughing all the way to the bank......

 

Good luck to each and everyone of you * hindsight is a wonderful thing...... personally I’ve had to return to the uk as exchange rates makes living on a pension more expensive in Thailand than that of the u.k 

The good news America v China trade war ..... means less Chinese tourists ? Weak Renminbi / yuan / yen  will see business projects shelved in turn weakening the baht. Predicting the baht will weaken in the new year as current rates not viable from a business point of view.

[emptypockets]

43 minutes ago, Greenside said:

So just how much buffer does one build into his or her retirement planning calculations to avoid smug comments from keyboard warriors on TV?  Decimated GBP, unaccountably strong baht 50% effective loss of income - tell me who built that much into their calculations and at what point will they begin to hurt?

Too many people are basing their proposition on the basis of 75 baht bring the 'normal' exchange rate. As previous posters have mentioned an average of 45 is more normal.

In reality the pound hasn't dropped much from the long term average. I know that is no consolation  for some people who are hurting now but let's keep things in perspective. The long term AUD average is around the 22 to 23 baht mark so it is down a bit at the moment.....a whole 2 baht or 10%. Down a lot from the 33 baht agreed but that was not a sustainable value. Not a deal breaker at 20 baht.

Edited October 4, 2019 by emptypockets

[Fairynuff]

2 hours ago, Percy P said:

But i has. Investors who want to invest in the UK are waiting to see what the situation will be. Boris will sort it out. I'm a leaver I can't say I've benitited

 

Thank to Boris. 

Johnson doesn’t give a toss about you or anyone else. Everything he does is about him

[Caldera]

1 minute ago, sanemax said:

You may well be, but other people are not .

This thread is about them, no need for you to contribute 

I contribute whenever I feel like it. Potential Forex movements are an important consideration when deciding when and where to retire. What good does it do to bemoan exchange rates? That won't change them. Obviously, I will also be pleased when I will get more baht for my money again, but in the meantime, no big deal.

[Samuel Smith]

1 minute ago, emptypockets said:

Too many people are basing their proposition on the basis of 75 baht bring the 'normal' exchange rate. As previous posters have mentioned an average of 45 is more normal.

In reality the pound hasn't dropped much from the long term average. I know that is no consolation  for some people who are hurting now but let's keep things in perspective.

I doubt anybody expected 75 to be the norm.  The problem is the rise of the baht/fall of the pound coupled with rising prices here.

[Acharn]

8 hours ago, aqua4 said:

This story raises a few questions:

 

So there is only 80,000 retired expats in Thailand and before all of this there was only 56,000? Do those numbers look right? If those numbers are correct then there would be even less people on a marriage visa. So if all of these are correct then why is immigration always so full?

 

I've wondered that for many years. It first started getting full around 2003, if I remember correctly. The year they changed the Immigration at Soi Suan Phlu so different customers were "served" at different windows. You submitted your paperwork to check you had everything and paid your fee. Then you went to wait for several hours for an officer to approve or disapprove your request. Before that you just sent up to the office on the third floor (American style of counting) and you might have to wait half an hour to process everything. I'm pretty sure Parkinson's Law is partly to blame (C. Northcote Parkinson explained the growth of bureaucracy, essential education for any citizen. His Law is true in every country and every culture).

[tandor]

9 hours ago, ezzra said:

No shattered dreams or fantasies, only shattered reality and disappointments  of almost daily of more bad news and not only from the surging baht but the way the government is treating the foreigners in this kingdom that all they want to do is to be left to live in peace...

..peace comes at a price 'ezzy'...you should know that.

[owl sees all]

7 minutes ago, Steve Vincent said:

let’s look at the bigger picture and ex pats who’ve purchased property in Thailand. If you moved to Thailand when the baht was weak .... take myself 72 baht to the pound ! 
720,000 baht = 10,000 pounds property good value 

-

todays exchange rates 36 = 360,000 baht only = 10,000 sterling 

making the markets volatile.  Both examples ......

-

when arriving a million baht was just under 14k sterling 

today million baht almost 25k sterling ...therefor those purchasing property today will be left with negative equity and those that purchased before the big boom are laughing all the way to the bank......

 

Good luck to each and everyone of you * hindsight is a wonderful thing...... personally I’ve had to return to the uk as exchange rates makes living on a pension more expensive in Thailand than that of the u.k 

The good news America v China trade war ..... means less Chinese tourists ? Weak Renminbi / yuan / yen  will see business projects shelved in turn weakening the baht. Predicting the baht will weaken in the new year as current rates not viable from a business point of view.

What's with the italics Steve?

 

[mikecha]

who know maybe a baht crash  if they no exports and less paying tourist or should i say closed wallets in Thailand i can go quick w\Was in Russia when the Rubel crashe went from 40 to a euro to 100 

still about 67 now that was good hotels half the price and may things  just wait see if not  keep going

if this brexex does go no deal maybe no pounds left who knows maybe have to pay in stones 

[TKDfella]

When I came to Thailand I planned for quite a big fluctuation in GBP and THB. What I didn't plan for was Brexit. Well to be more precise, it isn't really Brexit that has caused the problems for the GBP it's the fault of the politicians not standing together after the referendum (whatever way the vote went). There has been so much 'in fighting' I would imagine there has been little time left for anything else. As far as the strong Baht is concerned, I can't do anything about that either, Ha! What would really be a problem is if Thai immigration increased the retirement extension requirement from 800K to over one million.

[ttrd]

9 hours ago, ezzra said:

No shattered dreams or fantasies, only shattered reality and disappointments  of almost daily of more bad news and not only from the surging baht but the way the government is treating the foreigners in this kingdom that all they want to do is to be left to live in peace...

In order to have the slightest opportunity to live in peace it requires a minimum of mutual respect - you know, the opposite of the statements we often find here on TV on a daily basis ... 

 

It's not important where we start, but that we actually start and a good place to start is with our mindset - regardless of location ...

[emptypockets]

9 minutes ago, Samuel Smith said:

I doubt anybody expected 75 to be the norm.  The problem is the rise of the baht/fall of the pound coupled with rising prices here.

Haven't seen too many price rises that affect me to any great degree that would not have affected me back in Australia.

Inflation has taken hold of course. You can't triple the minimum wage without some flow on effect.

[emptypockets]

7 minutes ago, TKDfella said:

When I came to Thailand I planned for quite a big fluctuation in GBP and THB. What I didn't plan for was Brexit. Well to be more precise, it isn't really Brexit that has caused the problems for the GBP it's the fault of the politicians not standing together after the referendum (whatever way the vote went). There has been so much 'in fighting' I would imagine there has been little time left for anything else. As far as the strong Baht is concerned, I can't do anything about that either, Ha! What would really be a problem is if Thai immigration increased the retirement extension requirement from 800K to over one million.

If they made an adjustment for the inflation many posters complain about that may well be a possibility