Thailand's problem? Too much success

[webfact]

OPINION

Thailand's problem? Too much success

Government must stop battling currency and start future-proofing economy

William Pesek

 

As the global trade war upends developing nations everywhere, Thailand has a decidedly contrarian problem on its hands: too much winning.

 

The powerful rally of its currency, the baht, is laced with irony. In 1997, Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy was ground zero for the region's near-collapse. Its runaway debt, weak risk management and opacity were held up as Exhibit A for why the booming Asian Tiger economies crashed.

 

Bangkok's turnaround efforts have since morphed its bonds and stocks into safe havens from the global trade war. Yet Thailand has too much of a good thing on its hands as the baht trades at six-year highs. Asia's best-performing currency this year is putting the vital export and tourism sectors, which comprise 70% of gross domestic product, at risk.

 

There is an added irony here. The haven status investors bestow on Thailand comes despite some of the region's most notorious political chaos. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha is the former general who led the latest junta in a 2014 coup. In June, the parliament made it official as, following a contentious election, it named Prayuth prime minister.

 

Full story: https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Thailand-s-problem-Too-much-success

 

-- NIKKEI ASIAN REVIEW 2019-11-21

[Samui Bodoh]

35 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thailand's problem? Too much success

This headline should read:

 

Thailand's problem? Governance.

 

The author makes several good policy points and recommends actions that could (and probably should) be taken, but it matters little unless the issue of Governance is dealt with.

 

Thailand needs a legitimate, inclusive, demand-responsive government that caters to the needs of its peoples rather than to a small elite.

 

It is that simple.

 

Clean up corruption. Greatly reform and enhance Education. Create a reasonable social-safety net that isn't able to altered on the whim of the powerful. Reform the Bureaucracy with a chainsaw. Open up policy-making and put the needs of the proverbial 'little guy' ahead of the conglomerates. Reform the Judiciary. Allow and enhance the basic structures for Human Rights.

 

Most of all, stop the cheating in the political system.

 

As long as power is held by the Cheating Cheaters who Cheat, nothing good will come.

 

Again, it is that simple.

 

 

[mok199]

Years ago Thailand was an enigma , but now is nothing more than greed wrapped in an excuse...

[PatOngo]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Thailand's problem? Too much success

I hope they can keep up with the demand for new Benz's when all the successful construction labourers and street sweepers place their orders!

[YetAnother]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

despite some of the region's most notorious political chaos.

well known and generally accepted that thailand cannot govern itself

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Thailand needs a legitimate, inclusive, demand-responsive government that caters to the needs of its peoples rather than to a small elite.

 

It is that simple.

 

 

Is there one around the world who's example can be copied?

 

Hmm, maybe one not to far away, that delivers for it's people? I'm thinking Chi.......  ????????????

[sunnyboy2018]

2 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

This headline should read:

 

Thailand's problem? Governance.

 

The author makes several good policy points and recommends actions that could (and probably should) be taken, but it matters little unless the issue of Governance is dealt with.

 

Thailand needs a legitimate, inclusive, demand-responsive government that caters to the needs of its peoples rather than to a small elite.

 

It is that simple.

 

Clean up corruption. Greatly reform and enhance Education. Create a reasonable social-safety net that isn't able to altered on the whim of the powerful. Reform the Bureaucracy with a chainsaw. Open up policy-making and put the needs of the proverbial 'little guy' ahead of the conglomerates. Reform the Judiciary. Allow and enhance the basic structures for Human Rights.

 

Most of all, stop the cheating in the political system.

 

As long as power is held by the Cheating Cheaters who Cheat, nothing good will come.

 

Again, it is that simple.

 

 

Make it illegal for serving military to have any role in government.

[BritManToo]

20 minutes ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

Make it illegal for serving military to have any role in government.

Make it illegal for anyone that ever served above the rank of private to ever hold 'elected' posts.

[Brickbat]

The strong baht has its Admirers who benefit. 
Those Who are buying overseas assets and those greedy importers who still charge ridiculous prices. 

[madmitch]

Thai inflation is essentially flat, states the article. Well, that might be the case if you believe the Government figures but I don't think those that spend money here would agree with that statement.

[mikebell]

Success in curbing Road deaths? Political Corruption?  Civil Service Ineptitude? Police Selectivity?

[Benmart]

4 minutes ago, mikebell said:

Success in curbing Road deaths? Political Corruption?  Civil Service Ineptitude? Police Selectivity?

Find a trouble spot, bottle neck or inept process and the trail leads to greed, corruption and ignorance. These  words should comprise the new national motto; printed on every poster, brochure and other communication media.

[Creasy]

Success for the 1%.

 

The other 99% rejoice, as happiness has been brought back to you .

[NCC1701A]

now if you could just drink the water without becoming seriously ill...

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, madmitch said:

Thai inflation is essentially flat, states the article. Well, that might be the case if you believe the Government figures but I don't think those that spend money here would agree with that statement.

As long as you don't shop for products specifically aimed at white folk inflation appears to be flat as far as I can judge.

Petrol has gone down in the last 10 years (2009 33bht, 2019 25bht)

[Yinn]

NIKKEI ASIAN REVIEW 2019-11-21

 

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Yet Thailand has too much of a good thing on its hands as the baht trades at six-year highs. Asia's best-performing currency this year

 

But, but, but....

i read from TVF member that all the factory close, no tourist come. Because the thai people not respect farang enough, to many Indian, to many Chinese, TM30, racism, bad driving, TAT, etc etc.

Nail the coffin!!

 

Sorry guys who WANT thailand to fail, you can say it again and again and again...

but....

It not will happen.

 

This must be lie from small magazine. Or TAT. Or the government? Lieland.

Oh, is from Nikkei Asian Review. 

No nail for the coffin?

 

 

[PatOngo]

25 minutes ago, Yinn said:

But, but, but....

Yinn, care to share with us your personal successes.

[ThomasThBKK]

35 minutes ago, Yinn said:

NIKKEI ASIAN REVIEW 2019-11-21

 

 

But, but, but....

i read from TVF member that all the factory close, no tourist come. Because the thai people not respect farang enough, to many Indian, to many Chinese, TM30, racism, bad driving, TAT, etc etc.

Nail the coffin!!

 

Sorry guys who WANT thailand to fail, you can say it again and again and again...

but....

It not will happen.

 

This must be lie from small magazine. Or TAT. Or the government? Lieland.

Oh, is from Nikkei Asian Review. 

No nail for the coffin?

 

 

 

Thailand already failed, your kids won't have a bright future after yesterdays decision.

Most university students i know, and it's actually a lot as our whole friend circle is university students, are either depressed or are planning to <deleted> off after their PHDs.

They protested a lot but most got intimidated from military and their families threatened. They are done.

 

I am so tired off this all is good crowd, nothing's good here, inequality at an all time high, only 500 people own most of thailands stock market. You just think it's good as your level of expectations are lower than those of a soi dog.

[Roy Baht]

The key takeaway from this article is that the baht is not going to weaken anytime soon. Despite the rate-cutting and hand-wringing (pretending they want to weaken the baht) the major economic initiative that the government looks to for future growth, the EEC, will do much more to strengthen the baht: "When critics pounce, the government points to its $45 billion Eastern Economic Corridor project. Set in the nation's industrial east, it is Thailand's attempt to cultivate high-tech industries. Of course, the enterprise aims to pull in billions of dollars of overseas investment, upping pressure on the baht."

In fact, Pesek's main point in this article is that the Thai government should stop worrying about the baht entirely and "Thailand should be transforming its entire economy into a special enterprise zone, not just one area 90 kilometers from Bangkok."  This might or might not be the solution for Thailand's economy but in either case it bodes ill for Western expats trying to retire in the Kingdom on a fixed income in a weakening currency (like the GBP or USD).

[madmitch]

34 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

As long as you don't shop for products specifically aimed at white folk inflation appears to be flat as far as I can judge.

Petrol has gone down in the last 10 years (2009 33bht, 2019 25bht)

I think the Government inflation figures are possible heavily weighted towards certain commodities that probably include oil but I don't know and would actually like to see this.

 

I'm not basing my assumption on farang-orientated goods at all as the missus is forever complaining about increased prices. If anything with the increased baht strength, inmported goods should be cheaper but of course things don't work this way.....anywhere!

 

It could be because I'm in Phuket, though a trip to Bangkok last week plus time spent in Chachoengsao really don't do anything to change my view.

[BritManToo]

11 minutes ago, Roy Baht said:

but in either case it bodes ill for Western expats trying to retire in the Kingdom on a fixed income in a weakening currency (like the GBP or USD).

Got to say, I worry more about next years VISA than the exchange rate.

[Yinn]

6 minutes ago, PatOngo said:

Yinn, care to share with us your personal successes.

Not to much detail. Because some people on TVF little bit crazy.

 

I am start new business now. Just wait for orbortor, and other government office to finish document. 

Can open it 2.5 million, maybe over budget 500,000 maximum. So 3 million.

 

Will profit minimum 800,000 for month, after 2-3 months starting. Should be x2 x3 after 1 year.

Not original idea. Copy my friend. But I different/better location.

The big reason I study English to much now. Will be better.

 

i have other business, not want to say, stay private. 

 

Some member will say i lie. Sure. They not know about business.

Here one of my bank... have other also. 

Thailand have many opportunity. Up to you.

if you hard work= will success.

if you lazy= bad luck

 

 

 

[Yinn]

19 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

Thailand already failed, your kids won't have a bright future after yesterdays decision.

 

Agree.

But the government not can control us life. 

 

19 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

Most university students i know, and it's actually a lot as our whole friend circle is university students, are either depressed or are planning to <deleted> off after their PHDs.

They want job right? Is not the answer, just make the boss rich. Make business yourself, make you rich. 

 

 

19 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

They protested a lot but most got intimidated from military and their families threatened. They are done.

 

I am so tired off this all is good crowd, nothing's good here, inequality at an all time high, only 500 people own most of thailands stock market.

 

I not trust thailand stock market. Who know what the boss doing? Who know what worker doing? 

 

19 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

You just think it's good as your level of expectations are lower than those of a soi dog.

Ok.

[Assurancetourix]

6 minutes ago, Yinn said:

The big reason I study English to much now. Will be better.

The path is still long and the slope is rough ... 

[Assurancetourix]

2 minutes ago, Yinn said:

But the government not can control us life. 

This is what we call thaiglish .. ( in french : du petit nègre )
I don't know who is your english teacher  but you should change quickly. 

[ThomasThBKK]

2 minutes ago, Yinn said:

 

Agree.

But the government not can control us life. 

 

They want job right? Is not the answer, just make the boss rich. Make business yourself, make you rich. 

 

 

I not trust thailand stock market. Who know what the boss doing? Who know what worker doing? 

 

Ok.

 

Yes, see you are doing good, but you can't equate that to the rest of the population. Not everyone has the education and money to be able to set up his own business. Inequality is the worst in the world, rich get richer, poor get poorer. My part time maid is living from paycheck to paycheck, she stopped working for thais as they threat her like an animal, there's not much left after she supports her family with her salary. She doesn't have any saving and i even paid her a surgery this year. For these people it's extremely hard and they prolly never make it, they are the vulnerable and the government makes sure it stays like this. 

 

That's the definition of a failed country.

 

 

Quote

They want job right? Is not the answer, just make the boss rich. Make business yourself, make you rich. 

They all have, they all earn much running private clinics in bkk, koh chang and co or their families are already wealthy anyway. They still don't want their future kids to grow up here, it's not about money.

[jerojero]

4 hours ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

Make it illegal for serving military to have any role in government.

Illegality and laws mean nothing when military coups are the norm, happening every decade or so.  Only if the military respects civilian rule without question and dictatorial military leaders held in check, can laws prevail. Tough battle of law books against guns and tanks. 

[Creasy]

 

A 3 million baht investment getting a 800 thousand baht return in the first month. LOL

[Yinn]

9 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

Yes, see you are doing good, but you can't equate that to the rest of the population. Not everyone has the education and money to be able to set up his own business.

I disagree. 

I am start so small. And young. 

Sell the barbecue. 2000 per night, 800-1000 profit. 4000 for start/cart, stock etc.

Sometimes quickly, 2-3 hours. Sometimes, if rain, 8 hour. 

Other one same age me, have yaba, play game internet shop. Lazy. Other friend have success. Up to you.

when no customer, I study.

 

9 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

 

Inequality is the worst in the world, rich get richer, poor get poorer. My part time maid is living from paycheck to paycheck, she stopped working for thais as they threat her like an animal, there's not much left after she supports her family with her salary.

 

She study? Or play Facebook, etc.

up to her.

 

i feel pitiful for SOME poor. If disabled, cancer, etc. But normal one, up to them.

9 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

She doesn't have any saving and i even paid her a surgery this year. For these people it's extremely hard and they prolly never make it, they are the vulnerable and the government makes sure it stays like this. 

The government not control her. She control herself. Government not stop her do business/ study. Only herself.

 

9 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

That's the definition of a failed country.

I agree the government is problem. 

But they can not control the people. 

 

Just do it.

 

 

 

[tabarin]

23 minutes ago, Yinn said:

I disagree. 

I am start so small. And young. 

You define success and everything being good by money counts while doing business, that is very narrow minded to expect from basically everyone.
It is kind of pointless to discuss if you do not understand this yourself.

Actually, it is people being so selfish and focused on money, causing nothing to change too, as they can't be bothered to even try. 
While the poorest have no means to make change at all, it is all the Thai in between who do have a chance but not do it as they are often like you.

Last but not least, if you make 800k returns on a 3M investment monthly, you are either full of <deleted> or ripping off your own people big time.
Similar to the small scale versions of local grocery shops in the province villages, charging 5 baht for 1 egg while they buy them for 1 baht.
The poorest often depend on those local grocery shops. Many business in TH seem to work like this.

Anyway, to be on topic, I think there is success in TH but it is only for the few. The rest suffers and is indebted.