Faster rockets, more warheads: What North Korea could gain from new weapons development

[snoop1130]

Faster rockets, more warheads: What North Korea could gain from new weapons development

By Josh Smith

 

FILE PHOTO: A view of the newly developed intercontinental ballistic rocket Hwasong-15's test that was successfully launched is seen in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang November 30, 2017. KCNA via REUTERS/File Photo

 

SEOUL (Reuters) - If North Korea returns to long-range missile launches or other weapons tests in 2020, its military could make valuable technical advances and gain experience alongside whatever political message is sent to Washington.

 

This week North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that the world would soon see his country’s “new strategic weapon” and that there was no longer reason for Pyongyang to be bound by a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.

 

Kim’s comments were the strongest indication that the North could resume some of the major tests it had suspended more than two years ago in the run-up to summit diplomacy with the United States.

 

After years of development, the weapons programmes of North Korea are now advanced enough that it is hard to predict what it might test, said Jeffrey Lewis, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS).

 

U.S. military officials have said they see a long-range missile launch as one of the most likely possibilities.

 

Other experts said North Korea could launch a satellite, deploy the new ballistic missile submarine it says it is developing, or field new domestically produced “transporter erector launcher” (TEL) vehicles for its largest missiles.

 

“Any tests or drills they run will not only allow them to develop weapons that are faster, longer-range, or more reliable, but they also give the people operating these systems more exposure to and practice using and deploying the weapons,” said Grace Liu, a research associate at CNS.

 

ROCKET ENGINES

 

In December, North Korea said it had carried out two important tests at its Sohae satellite launch site, aimed at developing “another strategic weapon” to counter nuclear threats from the United States.

 

Although North Korean state media did not say exactly what was tested or what the new weapon might be, officials in Washington and Seoul said it appeared likely the North had tested rocket engines, possibly for ICBMs.

 

“They might work toward developing better liquid-propellant engines or revisit older engines that they’ve had trouble with in the past,” said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

 

Analysts also speculated that North Korea could be developing better solid rocket motors (SRMs), which can offer some benefits like easier storage and transportation.

 

SRMs would also be important for North Korea’s efforts to field an operational submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), similar to what was test-fired from a submerged barge in October.

 

“Every missile they’ve flight-tested in 2019 to date has used a solid rocket motor and they’re clearly becoming more adept at casting these motors in different diameters,” Panda said. “There are challenges associated with moving to ICBM-sized SRMs, but perhaps North Korea will demonstrate a breakthrough on that front.”

 

REENTRY VEHICLES AND NUCLEAR WARHEADS

 

A warhead launched by an ICBM needs a protective reentry vehicle to help it survive the fiery descent through the atmosphere to hit its target.

 

After the November 2017 launch of its largest ICBM to date, the Hwasong-15, state media said the test confirmed “the safety of a warhead in the atmospheric re-entry environment.”

 

U.S. military officials later said North Korea had not demonstrated a survivable re-entry vehicle, though they did not discount the possibility.

 

During North Korea’s last ICBM tests in 2017, its scientists may have gleaned useful data on how their reentry vehicles worked, Panda said.

 

However, the tests were conducted on a “lofted trajectory” high into space, potentially limiting the usefulness of some of the data, as the missile would take a much different trajectory during a war, he added.

 

A final card North Korea could play is an atmospheric test of a nuclear warhead, though many analysts say that is unlikely, as it could anger Pyongyang’s backers in Beijing and Moscow.

 

But North Korea is believed to have continued producing material for nuclear weapons, and analysts said it is likely to continue stockpiling additional warheads while seeking to make them even smaller.

 

Korea National Defense University’s Jeong Han-beom said North Korea could use computer simulations to develop smaller and lighter warheads without new nuclear tests.

 

EVADING MISSILE DEFENCES

 

In 2019, North Korea conducted several tests of new short-range missiles such as the KN-23, which experts said are designed to better evade missile defences.

 

This year, North Korea could seek to develop multiple reentry vehicles for large-diameter missiles like the Hwasong-15, Panda said.

 

“Adding more nuclear warheads to a single missile can better assure them of an ability to penetrate American missile defence and, if they’re worried that their warheads might have reliability issues, more warheads increases the odds that one warhead will successfully detonate,” he said.

 

North Korea often seems more focussed on making a splash with new weapons rather than pragmatically building more of the weapons it already has, said Markus Schiller, a missile expert based in Europe who focuses on the way North Korea has used outside help for its technology.

 

“This new stuff will again be something they have procured from somewhere else, or some publicity event that our political scientists will interpret as a huge leap toward new technology,” he said.

 

Schiller said one technology that could generate the buzz North Korea is looking for could be a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), which the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance defines as weapons that travel faster than Mach 5 (3,800mph/6,174kmh) and have the capability to manoeuvre during the entire flight.

 

“Perhaps they will display a design model of a HGV, or launch a KN-23 on top of a bigger missile and have it do some manoeuvring at reentry while claiming to have launched a HGV,” Schiller said. “This way, they can save their limited resources, and play the same game they had over the past years.”

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-01-02

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[tifino]

NK might not bother about the ReEntry total-survival equation...

 

... so long as it blows above the target country, it will still make a mess, plus EMP etc 

[nobodysfriend]

Instead of helping each other to make the world a better place , politicians prepare for the total destruction of other countries /people .

And that in times where there are so many problems that need to be solved urgently ...

Shame on you , Trump , Kim , Nethanyahu , Bolsonaro , just to name a few ...

There is no hope left for mankind .

[sammieuk1]

Little fast rocket man up to his old sanction busting tricks again DT???? 

[Raven2]

I can't remember any public speculation as to how N. Korea manages to finance their weapons programme given the sanction in place against them.

[Saint Nick]

How's the peace process going and how about that Nobel -prize?

Maybe Mr. Trump and one of his numerous followers can answer that- and sure they will, with the typical mess of half- truths, alternative facts and plain delusion!

By the way: I am not against a diplomatic approach, but... 

 

Some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money.

They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with.

Some men just want to watch the world burn.
(Alfred Pennyworth in Batman- The Dark Knight)
 

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, Raven2 said:

I can't remember any public speculation as to how N. Korea manages to finance their weapons programme given the sanction in place against them.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/18/how-does-north-korea-get-money-to-build-nuclear-weapons.html

[Pedrogaz]

With the US focussed on starting a war with Iran and dragging a reluctant NATO with it, 2020 is a good time for Kim to start pushing the envelope and developing defensive and deterrent weapons.

 

 

Simultaneous wars with NK and Iran and on several fronts with the unfinished business in Afghanistan, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Venezuela, South China Sea etc etc would be difficult for the US to manage and finance, possibly requiring a politically devastating reintroduction of conscription and extensive borrowing or inflationary printing of fiat money. 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Pedrogaz
spelling

[Tug]

Well this isent going according to plans soon they will probably be mass producing nukes and launch systems 2020 going to be interesting for sure

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

Instead of helping each other to make the world a better place , politicians prepare for the total destruction of other countries /people .

And that in times where there are so many problems that need to be solved urgently ...

Shame on you , Trump , Kim , Nethanyahu , Bolsonaro , just to name a few ...

There is no hope left for mankind .

Quite a good list of nimwitted men lacking compassion, vision and prudence. Add to the list Putin and Duterte please. 

[KhunKenAP]

Someone needs to put this guy on a timeout in the corner, before Trump turns N. Korea into a glass parking lot. 

[spidermike007]

Glad Bolton is out of the picture. That could have been the start of WWIII. The US does not really have any counter measures left. Trump got played by Kim in such a major fashion. And all it cost Kim was a good box of chocolates, a hint of a location for another Trump tower, and a few well placed compliments. Plus talk of a potential treaty, without any intention of doing so. Why would he? Kim bought himself alot of time. It is estimated he may have developed 10-15 warheads in the time Trump was bragging about the depth of their bromance. How is a guy like Kim capable of making Trump and his devotees look so naive and foolish?

[bristolboy]

29 minutes ago, KhunKenAP said:

Someone needs to put this guy on a timeout in the corner, before Trump turns N. Korea into a glass parking lot. 

If there's one thing Kim has learned from his dealings with Trump and observing Trump's actions elsewhere, it's that he need fear no such thing. 

[billd766]

52 minutes ago, KhunKenAP said:

Someone needs to put this guy on a timeout in the corner, before Trump turns N. Korea into a glass parking lot. 

It is relatively east to start a war, even a (limited nuclear war) but incredibly difficult to stop or contain one.

 

IMHO if, for example, the USA were to use a nuclear weapon on NK, then NK would most probably retaliate with all it has against SK and probably Japan and if they have a nuclear weapon that could reach the USA they will lob a few over there as well.

 

If they attack SK and Japan, then by default the USA is treaty bound to help defend them.

Depending on there the US missile hits NK and the wind at the time the fallout may hit China which would probably assist NK against the USA and wakening the sleeping dragon is something that nobody with an ounce of common sense would want to do.

 

A nuclear war could include chemical and biological warfare also.

 

That would also trigger a conventional war and Kim has a lot more conventional weapons close to SK and NK would simply roll over the 39th parallel straight down the road to Seoul. 

Edited January 3, 2020 by billd766
added extra text

[IAMHERE]

1 hour ago, KhunKenAP said:

Someone needs to put this guy on a timeout in the corner, before Trump turns N. Korea into a glass parking lot. 

Never gonna happen; the USA wouldn't shoot back more than enough to maybe kill Kim. Likely as not NK would kill millions of Americans and America would just increase sanctions.  America is just too afraid of innocents dying in NK to do a 'glass parking lot' deal.  Heck, America is still getting grief for the two bombs it let off decades ago against a really capable enemy. 

[sawadeeken]

5 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

Instead of helping each other to make the world a better place , politicians prepare for the total destruction of other countries /people .

And that in times where there are so many problems that need to be solved urgently ...

Shame on you , Trump , Kim , Nethanyahu , Bolsonaro , just to name a few ...

There is no hope left for mankind .

Shame on them, but this (KIM) is something like a motorcycle driver in Pattaya flipping the middle finger at a BIG group of 'HELLS ANGELS'....... 

I live in the USA and I don't want KIM aiming at me with any of his toys, AS HE IS BRAGGING ABOUT IN HIS PLANS.......... That is ENOUGH OF A DECLARATION OF WAR..... to go ahead and wipe him out...... Don't you know.... the USA intelligence knows exactly where KIM's NK facilities are, and since KIM has already basically 'DECLARED WAR' on the USA and threatened to shoot his 'Nuke' missiles at the USA...... Why should we wait????? Wipe 'him' and his few major targets out............. SOONER THE BETTER.......

IMHO.... NOTHING BETTER than stomping on the foot of some radical just to see the startled and helpless expression on their face......

[jany123]

1 hour ago, sawadeeken said:

Shame on them, but this (KIM) is something like a motorcycle driver in Pattaya flipping the middle finger at a BIG group of 'HELLS ANGELS'....... 

I live in the USA and I don't want KIM aiming at me with any of his toys, AS HE IS BRAGGING ABOUT IN HIS PLANS.......... That is ENOUGH OF A DECLARATION OF WAR..... to go ahead and wipe him out...... Don't you know.... the USA intelligence knows exactly where KIM's NK facilities are, and since KIM has already basically 'DECLARED WAR' on the USA and threatened to shoot his 'Nuke' missiles at the USA...... Why should we wait????? Wipe 'him' and his few major targets out............. SOONER THE BETTER.......

IMHO.... NOTHING BETTER than stomping on the foot of some radical just to see the startled and helpless expression on their face......

UMmm... who is making the most realistic threat against whom?

 

whomever that is... yep... as you say... that person should be wiped off the face of the planet (plus it’s henchmen, just to be sure)

 

meanwhile... “as Kim has already basically declared war on the USA”... m8.... there has been an official state of war since the 1950s... NK wants the war ended. The US will not allow the war to be ended, Therefore.... i suppose your whole post is rubbish, if that’s a cornerstone of your thinking.

[bristolboy]

I hear that the new NK missiles are so accurate that they are capable of targeting Trump's prospects for a Nobel Prize. In fact, word is that they have taken them out already.

[Cryingdick]

16 hours ago, Raven2 said:

I can't remember any public speculation as to how N. Korea manages to finance their weapons programme given the sanction in place against them.

 

They do a lot of counterfeit money and general goods. They are also known to make meth to fund their programs. 

[Scott]

3 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

 

They do a lot of counterfeit money and general goods. They are also known to make meth to fund their programs. 

I had read something recently.   They also do a number of other drugs, including viagra.   I don't remember if it is counterfeit or not.   They also do a fair amount of arms selling, including nuclear materials to Iran.  

[overherebc]

On 1/3/2020 at 9:54 AM, Raven2 said:

I can't remember any public speculation as to how N. Korea manages to finance their weapons programme given the sanction in place against them.

All the work is done by people who do it because they love the boss.

If you enlarge the photo the big nose is the part carrying the ones who made mistakes. ????????

Edited January 4, 2020 by overherebc

[overherebc]

The only way I see this getting better, for a while at least, is complete failure of 5 or 6 of these on the launch pad. Don't need any nukes to go off just broken up, burnt and spread around the test firing sights.

If they have the nukes on board and they go up as well it would of course be a foreign aggression act and who knows where that would lead.

Edited January 4, 2020 by overherebc

[sawadeeken]

19 hours ago, jany123 said:

UMmm... who is making the most realistic threat against whom?

 

whomever that is... yep... as you say... that person should be wiped off the face of the planet (plus it’s henchmen, just to be sure)

 

meanwhile... “as Kim has already basically declared war on the USA”... m8.... there has been an official state of war since the 1950s... NK wants the war ended. The US will not allow the war to be ended, Therefore.... i suppose your whole post is rubbish, if that’s a cornerstone of your thinking.

YOU SAY.......NK wants the war ended....... ???

YOU are so warped and don't have a clue to what is happenening...... And seems you are so anxious to slander the USA.... My HOME, and I love it and I don't want this crazy Kim killing any of my friends.... I prefer to see 'lunatics' done away with before they hurt somebody.... 

if as you say..... IF we (America) were still at war we could have got rid of them like swatting a mosquito, Over ALL those years since the 1950's (NK and SK have never signed a Peace Treaty) so you might say they are still at war......

If you are taking NK's side..... I'm not prepared to trust that YOU know much about them or you just don't like America and are jumping on an opportunity to slander America, without basis.....

And YOU CALL MY POST RUBBISH............

[jany123]

2 hours ago, sawadeeken said:

YOU SAY.......NK wants the war ended....... ???

YOU are so warped and don't have a clue to what is happenening...... And seems you are so anxious to slander the USA.... My HOME, and I love it and I don't want this crazy Kim killing any of my friends.... I prefer to see 'lunatics' done away with before they hurt somebody.... 

if as you say..... IF we (America) were still at war we could have got rid of them like swatting a mosquito, Over ALL those years since the 1950's (NK and SK have never signed a Peace Treaty) so you might say they are still at war......

If you are taking NK's side..... I'm not prepared to trust that YOU know much about them or you just don't like America and are jumping on an opportunity to slander America, without basis.....

And YOU CALL MY POST RUBBISH............

So.... Um.... yes, nice rant... I too would prefer to see lunatics sidelined... and IMO, the biggest lunatic on the international stage today, is orange. 

 

but... are you saying that NK and those divided states, are not still technically at war?

 

anyway... you say your home is in america.... assumedly you went to school in america? This would explain your wildly zealous post which ignores the roles of others and promotes americana over truth.... why do you feel that critism of america equates to taking sides against  (is all the ra ra ra just hot wind to cover low self esteem?)... did your teachers tell you that america was infallible and that your prez was really an emporer whom all should bow down before? LOl... regardless... anyone ranting away like that needs a reality check.