China's coronavirus infections hit daily record, deaths climb to 304

[rooster59]

China's coronavirus infections hit daily record, deaths climb to 304

By Lusha Zhang and Ryan Woo

 

A worker in protective suit serves customers at a pharmacy following an outbreak of the new coronavirus in Wuhan, Hubei province, China February 1, 2020. cnsphoto via REUTERS

 

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's new confirmed infections from the coronavirus outbreak increased by a daily record, up by 2,590 cases on Saturday to top 14,000, as the quickly growing epidemic prompted global travel restrictions and evacuations.

 

The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China had reached 304 as of the end of Saturday, state broadcaster CCTV said on Sunday, citing the country's National Health Commission.

 

All the new deaths and most of the new infections on Saturday were in central Hubei province, the epicenter of the flu-like coronavirus outbreak.

 

China is facing mounting isolation as other countries introduce travel curbs, airlines suspend flights, and governments evacuate their citizens, risking worsening a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

 

Around two dozen other countries and regions have reported more than 130 cases, none of which have been fatal yet. Most of them have been in people who had recently traveled to or were visiting from Hubei.

 

The World Health Organization this week declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern, but said global trade and travel restrictions are not needed.

 

However, some countries are responding to fears of the virus spreading by ramping up border controls. Singapore and the United States announced measures on Friday to ban foreign nationals who have recently been in China from entering their territories, and Australia followed suit on Saturday.

 

Russia introduced visa restrictions and will start evacuating Russian citizens on Monday and Tuesday, Interfax and TASS news agencies reported.

 

More than 100 Germans and family members landed in Frankfurt on Saturday after being evacuated from Wuhan.

Around 250 Indonesians were being evacuated from Hubei.

 

U.S. health officials on Saturday confirmed an eighth case of the coronavirus in the United States, and the Pentagon said it would provide housing for people arriving from overseas who might need to be quarantined. The country has introduced mandatory quarantine for citizens arriving from Hubei.

 

In Mexico, ride-hailing application Uber Technologies Inc said on Saturday that it suspended 240 accounts of users in Mexico who may recently have come in contact with someone possibly infected with the virus.

There are no confirmed cases in Mexico yet.

 

(GRAPHIC: Comparing coronavirus outbreaks - https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-VIRUS-COMPARISON/0100B5BY3CY/index.html)

 

PROVINCE IN LOCKDOWN

 

The number of deaths in Hubei from the outbreak had risen to 294 as of the end of Feb. 1, with a total 9,074 cases, the majority in the capital Wuhan, where the virus is thought to have emerged late last year in a market illegally trading wildlife.

 

New confirmed cases also surged by 276 in nearby Huanggang. One death was reported in the city, about 60 km (37 miles) east of Wuhan.

 

Hubei has been under virtual quarantine for the last week, with roads sealed off and public transport shut down. The province extended its Lunar New Year holiday break to Feb. 13 in a bid to contain the outbreak.

 

But the province is not totally sealed. People are leaving Hubei on foot over a bridge spanning the Yangtze river, entering Jiujiang city in neighboring Jiangxi province.

 

Lu Yuejin, a 50-year-old farmer from a village on the Hubei side of the bridge, was trying to gain passage for her leukaemia-stricken daughter on Saturday.

 

"Please, take my daughter. I don't need to go past... please, just let my daughter go past," Lu pleaded with the police.

 

Her cries for help were almost drowned out by a loudspeaker playing a pre-recorded message that residents would not be allowed past to Jiujiang.

 

Eventually, Lu and her daughter were both allowed through and an ambulance was called to pick them up.

 

(GRAPHIC: Tracking the novel coronavirus - https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html)

 

(Reporting by Lusha Zhang and Ryan Woo; Additional reporting by Martin Pollard in Jiujiang and Yilei Sun in Shanghai; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Rosalba O'Brien)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-02-02

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info

 

[bkk6060]

Wow. The infection number jumped quickly.

Just the beginning I fear 1000's will probably die.

 

[RubbaJohnny]

In depth detailed analysis here

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins

 

Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’s origins

By Jon CohenJan. 31, 2020 , 6:20 PM

[GeorgeCross]

American Senator hinting heavily it may have come from Wuhan Bio Lab - yikes

 

 

 

[sammieuk1]

A business opportunity awaits everything under control????

 

[Tayaout]

6 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Where are these whopping figures coming from ?

 

Source please.

You can find some here: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

[Cake Monster]

And just when you start to think that things could not get any worse, Chinese Authorities report an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 Bird flu.

Source; - South China Morning Post 02.02.20

The outbreak in in Hunan Province, to the South of Hubei Province

There are no Human cases reported.

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by Cake Monster
stick pad

[Thaijack2014]

 

4 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

 

 

12 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Where are these whopping figures coming from ?

 

Source please.

Whopping figures.... this is typical... in a country that has 1,6 billion inhabitants you cannot impress by saying 0.0025 % of the population died of it. 400 sounds more, but sorry it is just a tiny bit. During a week more people die in Thailand because of traffic accidents in numbers. And this country has 66 Million inhabitants.... So in percentages far far more then people dying of corona.

[metisdead]

A post containing unattributed content has been removed. Please provide a valid link to the source of information when posting:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences. 

[Tayaout]

4 minutes ago, Thaijack2014 said:

 

 

Whopping figures.... this is typical... in a country that has 1,6 billion inhabitants you cannot impress by saying 0.0025 % of the population died of it. 400 sounds more, but sorry it is just a tiny bit. During a week more people die in Thailand because of traffic accidents in numbers. And this country has 66 Million inhabitants.... So in percentages far far more then people dying of corona.

Up to you but I've been following the number for over a week (there was like 400 cases in China and 0 outside) and it increases exponentially even tho the Chinese are limited at about 2000 tests per day. Sure in the beginning it's not impressive but it quickly went out of control. 

Edited February 2, 2020 by Tayaout

[shdmn]

OMG this is so scary.

 

Quote

The rapidly spreading virus has closed schools, cut blood donations to dangerous levels and prompted limits on hospital visitors. More ominously, it has infected as many as 26 million people in the United States in just four months, killing up to 25,000 so far.

Influenza, otherwise know as "the flu".  But yea let's all panic and get hysterical about coronavirus instead which doesn't come anywhere near those numbers.

Edited February 2, 2020 by shdmn

[Tayaout]

1 minute ago, shdmn said:

OMG this is so scary.

 

Influenza, otherwise know as "the flu".  But yea let's all panic an get hysterical about a coronavirus doesn't come anywhere near those numbers.

The Chinese declared 144 death by flu in 2018. How much do you trust their figure now? 

[30la]

Stop with this paranoia, I have seen so many influences with so many deaths during my life, but no one until a few years ago has ever called them epidemics, I learned that to die were people with already weak immune systems.
Clearly, it is better to avoid places where crown cases are high at the moment, wait a few weeks, the situation will calm down!

[shadowofacloud]

13 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

Up to you but I've been following the number for over a week (there was like 400 cases in China and 0 outside) and it increases exponentially even tho the Chinese are limited at about 2000 tests per day. Sure in the beginning it's not impressive but it quickly went out of control. 

Please stop spreading <deleted> and mongering fear.

 

It does not increase exponentially - suggest you read a definition of exponential first.

 

As I've written elsewhere - the mortality rate is stable and low. There is a steadily rising number of recovered patients, a number now higher than the number of fatalities (305 dead, 340 recovered). The rate of infection is also fairly steady at 1-2k per day (with the usual variations), the vast majority in Hubei and neighboring provinces. The majority of fatalities are the elderly and frail, with existing conditions - people, who would most likely die of any other serious infection.

 

Just keep calm and carry on.

Edited February 2, 2020 by shadowofacloud

[Mavideol]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

China's new confirmed infections from the coronavirus outbreak increased by a daily record, up by 2,590 cases on Saturday to top 14,000, as the quickly growing epidemic prompted global travel restrictions and evacuations.

Thai evacuation plans on hold as ‘China confident it can control the situation’

 

Chinese government keep saying that ALL was under control...... btw, Thai government said the same thing, be aware

Edited February 2, 2020 by Mavideol

[4MyEgo]

21 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

You can find some here: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

There are currently 14,556 confirmed cases worldwide, including 305 fatalities.

19,544 suspected

 

These numbers are a lot different to what was posted by someone earlier, that post doesn't seem to be showing those figures now, however they were talking hundreds of thousands, maybe it was in another post ?

 

It's just a matter of containing it in other parts of the world, China has 14,381 of those infected (or 98.79%) of total infected and is going to have a hell of a time trying to contain that. 

 

The world on the other hand has the other known 175 cases of those infected or (1.21%) of the balance, some of who have recovered or died, that said, closing ALL borders to China to stop further incoming potentially infected people should allow everyone to concentrate on those they currently have and round up any others that they may know have came into contact with to stop further spreading of the virus.

 

It will be interesting to see how China does, as they have got it the worst, closing the borders will have a major impact of further spreading of the disease and is the only just reason to do so, and should have been done much early, and should remain in place for as long as it takes, if those up top can put lives 1st as opposed to economics. 

[Dumbastheycome]

54 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

American Senator hinting heavily it may have come from Wuhan Bio Lab - yikes

 

 

 

That allegation, suspicion, whatever it can be called has already been dismissed by International professionals who are involved in the research. In fact yes the Wuhan animal Market is now seen to be less likely to have been the actual origins of the outbreak.  It is nowaccepted that more likely that the source was carried into the  market by a person already infected. That has been identified as  more probable because although the majority of victims were from the Wuhan Market area it is  now acknowledged  there were others who fell victim outside that area at the same time or just prior with the first identified. Greatest suspicion it was a traveling  Animal Trader who inadvertantly cross infected people in a wider area than just Wuhan Market.

It may be a convenient political moment for some in the US to take the opportunity to create anti Chinese sentiment by such spurious allegations but no surprise that it comes  from a Republican Senator who holds allegiance to a POTUS who is a proven liar who escapes fair trial by the refusal evidence or first hand witnesses.

[URMySunshine]

30 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

Please stop spreading <deleted> and mongering fear.

 

It does not increase exponentially - suggest you read a definition of exponential first.

 

As I've written elsewhere - the mortality rate is stable and low. There is a steadily rising number of recovered patients, a number now higher than the number of fatalities (305 dead, 340 recovered). The rate of infection is also fairly steady at 1-2k per day (with the usual variations), the vast majority in Hubei and neighboring provinces. The majority of fatalities are the elderly and frail, with existing conditions - people, who would most likely die of any other serious infection.

 

Just keep calm and carry on.

I sincerely wish to believe you and have every reason to do so if you can intelligently answer two questions that are concerning me. Why have the Chinese gone to such extremes in terms of what is now a multi mega city shutdown and why are foreign powers stopping all travel to China such as flights being cancelled and Uk and others pulling all their diplomatic staff and foreign nationals out of the country if this is just another flu virus. The costs are huge if your perceived  level of risk is true. 

 

If you want to know how strong the wind is look at how the flags are flying in it. 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by URMySunshine

[shadowofacloud]

5 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

I sincerely wish to believe you and have every reason to do so if you can intelligently answer two questions that are concerning me. Why have the Chinese gone to such extremes in terms of what is now a multi mega city shutdown and why are foreign powers stopping all travel to China such as flights being cancelled and Uk and others pulling all their diplomatic staff and foreign nationals out of the country if this is just another flu virus. The costs are huge if your perceived  level of risk is true.

IMO it is mostly precautionary in case of China. The country is trying its best to avoid the cluster<deleted> it had with SARS a while ago, so they are taking more radical steps just in case*. Plus they are showing off a bit - Chinese have this love for grandeur, as exhibited a few times during the reign of Chairman Mao. And they have the means to achieve it. Personally, I am impressed with what they are doing.

 

The flight ban is either purely political (politicians showing just ah how much they care for their beloved constituents) or minimizing potential business risks (airlines protecting themselves from lawsuits).

 

[*] There is also another, absolutely justified aspect to this precaution: we don't have the full information yet regarding the virus' life cycle, patient zero, potential vectors. So yes, it is a _potentially_ risky situation and it is good to be aware of the possible outcomes. But at this stage the data does not justify total closure of borders and similar, radical measures.

 

 

[geriatrickid]

14 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

Please stop spreading <deleted> and mongering fear.

 

It does not increase exponentially - suggest you read a definition of exponential first.

 

As I've written elsewhere - the mortality rate is stable and low. There is a steadily rising number of recovered patients, a number now higher than the number of fatalities (305 dead, 340 recovered). The rate of infection is also fairly steady at 1-2k per day (with the usual variations), the vast majority in Hubei and neighboring provinces. The majority of fatalities are the elderly and frail, with existing conditions - people, who would most likely die of any other serious infection.

 

Just keep calm and carry on.

 

You are making  a large number of assumptions, some of which are not substantiated by the actual facts at hand. More specifically, you dismissed a factually correct statement.

1. The epidemic most certainly demonstrates exponential growth. Multiple health organizations have stated as much. The International Journal of Infectious Diseases  

(Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak - Published 30-Jan-2020) concluded that The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. 

 

2. How can you discuss the  mortality rate when  we still do not know what is going on in China? You dismiss the deaths as nothing important. The 300  victims lives were important to the victims and their families. They did not need to die. I note that some people have tried to minimize concern by emphasizing that  many of the  deceased to date are  people aged 60+. While that may be true of the local Chinese population, it is not true of the  patients  identified in Canada, USA and Japan. These patients were under 60, and in one case a  previously healthy 20 year old student from Canada.  Even if the susceptible population is primarily over the age of 60, it would have dire consequences for Thailand.

The country has an aging population. many of the elderly no longer have extended families to care for them as  many families are  1 or 2 children  over successive generations. In plain language  a spread of the epidemic in Thailand  would do serious damage.

 

3. What has been under reported to date is that the initial Chinese information  that allowed for diagnostic tests has not been reliable. More specifically,  it was found that some tests  that indicated negative, later tested positive when the western countries developed their own test basis data.

I am not one to accept whatever the Chinese  say as there is a  vested interest to  minimize the extent of the  disease  and its severity. It's not the just the Chinese who need to keep things calm, but all countries for the simple reason that the world cannot respond to an international health catastrophe. The resources are just not available, not even in the most advanced countries. There are a limited  number of ICUs with respiratory intervention capabilities, and a limited number of hospital beds available.

 

The illness characteristics have been  changing every week. First we were told, no worries as it was difficult to transmit. Then we were told hand washing will save us, then came the masks and these next to useless thermoscans.  What we know as of today is that the   illness can indeed be spread human to human. (The Germans first announced this, while the WHO dithered. The USA then confirmed the German findings.) it is a serious epidemic.

 

4. Now that the  WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, there is a requirement to try and limit international spread of contagion. This is why Vietnam, USA, Australia and others  have imposed  quarantines and outright travel bans.

China banned group travel last week. This is the reason why there are far fewer Chinese in Thailand. This ban along with the travel bans from other countries  should disrupt the  illness spread. However, Thailand is one of the few countries to be without direction.  Wearing masks and using hand gel won't stop the spread of infection. Reducing interaction with carriers will.  Thailand must act to ban travel to and from China for at least the next 2 weeks. If it does not, then Thailand risks being included in the rest of the world's travel ban.

 

[car720]

1 hour ago, Thaijack2014 said:

 

 

Whopping figures.... this is typical... in a country that has 1,6 billion inhabitants you cannot impress by saying 0.0025 % of the population died of it. 400 sounds more, but sorry it is just a tiny bit. During a week more people die in Thailand because of traffic accidents in numbers. And this country has 66 Million inhabitants.... So in percentages far far more then people dying of corona.

Tell that to the family members of people dead and dying in China today.

[car720]

11 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

 

You are making  a large number of assumptions, some of which are not substantiated by the actual facts at hand. More specifically, you dismissed a factually correct statement.

1. The epidemic most certainly demonstrates exponential growth. Multiple health organizations have stated as much. The International Journal of Infectious Diseases  

(Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak - Published 30-Jan-2020) concluded that The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. 

 

2. How can you discuss the  mortality rate when  we still do not know what is going on in China? You dismiss the deaths as nothing important. The 300  victims lives were important to the victims and their families. They did not need to die. I note that some people have tried to minimize concern by emphasizing that  many of the  deceased to date are  people aged 60+. While that may be true of the local Chinese population, it is not true of the  patients  identified in Canada, USA and Japan. These patients were under 60, and in one case a  previously healthy 20 year old student from Canada.  Even if the susceptible population is primarily over the age of 60, it would have dire consequences for Thailand.

The country has an aging population. many of the elderly no longer have extended families to care for them as  many families are  1 or 2 children  over successive generations. In plain language  a spread of the epidemic in Thailand  would do serious damage.

 

3. What has been under reported to date is that the initial Chinese information  that allowed for diagnostic tests has not been reliable. More specifically,  it was found that some tests  that indicated negative, later tested positive when the western countries developed their own test basis data.

I am not one to accept whatever the Chinese  say as there is a  vested interest to  minimize the extent of the  disease  and its severity. It's not the just the Chinese who need to keep things calm, but all countries for the simple reason that the world cannot respond to an international health catastrophe. The resources are just not available, not even in the most advanced countries. There are a limited  number of ICUs with respiratory intervention capabilities, and a limited number of hospital beds available.

 

The illness characteristics have been  changing every week. First we were told, no worries as it was difficult to transmit. Then we were told hand washing will save us, then came the masks and these next to useless thermoscans.  What we know as of today is that the   illness can indeed be spread human to human. (The Germans first announced this, while the WHO dithered. The USA then confirmed the German findings.) it is a serious epidemic.

 

4. Now that the  WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, there is a requirement to try and limit international spread of contagion. This is why Vietnam, USA, Australia and others  have imposed  quarantines and outright travel bans.

China banned group travel last week. This is the reason why there are far fewer Chinese in Thailand. This ban along with the travel bans from other countries  should disrupt the  illness spread. However, Thailand is one of the few countries to be without direction.  Wearing masks and using hand gel won't stop the spread of infection. Reducing interaction with carriers will.  Thailand must act to ban travel to and from China for at least the next 2 weeks. If it does not, then Thailand risks being included in the rest of the world's travel ban.

 

I agree totally that any figures provided by the CCP are rubbery at best.

Only time will tell where this is going but personally I find some of the goings on by the major western players more than just a little fascinating and perhaps grotesque.  If I live long enough the truth of all this will come out and it will make an interesting read.

[URMySunshine]

_The 

14 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

IMO it is mostly precautionary in case of China. The country is trying its best to avoid the cluster<deleted> it had with SARS a while ago, so they are taking more radical steps just in case*. Plus they are showing off a bit - Chinese have this love for grandeur, as exhibited a few times during the reign of Chairman Mao. And they have the means to achieve it. Personally, I am impressed with what they are doing.

 

The flight ban is either purely political (politicians showing just ah how much they care for their beloved constituents) or minimizing potential business risks (airlines protecting themselves from lawsuits).

 

[*] There is also another, absolutely justified aspect to this precaution: we don't have the full information yet regarding the virus' life cycle, patient zero, potential vectors. So yes, it is a _potentially_ risky situation and it is good to be aware of the possible outcomes. But at this stage the data does not justify total closure of borders and similar, radical measures.

 

 

Problem is now the story is the story and not the truth. This panic sadly has only just begun and it will need to run its course before sanity prevails once again. One this fear grips a population folk with the normal flu , coughs and colds will besiege healthcare facilities and this will only serve to create even more panic - it's a bit like a bank run if everyone wants their money out at the same time then the banks collapse. I am concerned that this is almost baked in at this juncture. 

[URMySunshine]

8 minutes ago, car720 said:

Tell that to the family members of people dead and dying in China today.

That though is true of anybody dying anywhere. Tell that to the family of the pick-up truck that lies broken and twisted by the side of a road in Nakhon Nowhere. 

[geriatrickid]

7 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

IMO it is mostly precautionary in case of China. The country is trying its best to avoid the cluster<deleted> it had with SARS a while ago, so they are taking more radical steps just in case*. Plus they are showing off a bit - Chinese have this love for grandeur, as exhibited a few times during the reign of Chairman Mao. And they have the means to achieve it. Personally, I am impressed with what they are doing.

 

The flight ban is either purely political (politicians showing just ah how much they care for their beloved constituents) or minimizing potential business risks (airlines protecting themselves from lawsuits).

 

[*] There is also another, absolutely justified aspect to this precaution: we don't have the full information yet regarding the virus' life cycle, patient zero, potential vectors. So yes, it is a _potentially_ risky situation and it is good to be aware of the possible outcomes. But at this stage the data does not justify total closure of borders and similar, radical measures.

 

 

Go and read the directives under the  WHO PHEIC. One item in particular;

Countries should place emphasis on:

- reducing human infection, and prevention of secondary transmission and international spread;

There is not going to be a "patient 0" and we already know that this is human to human and fomite transission based. Potential vectors? Not relevant.  We do not even know what 

the source of SARS was  or what its  reservoir is, and yet that crisis was managed.  Like 

SARS, transmission is believed to occur during the second week of illness. Unlike SARS, the infections have occurred outside of health care settings, so  similar measures of control  will not be effective in stopping the spread of the disease. SARS was stopped because hospitals implemented  strict  infection  control protocols, not because of medication or a vaccine was  discovered. 

 

 

 

[WaveHunter]

it's really time to stop all the nonsense of downplaying the potential of this virus, and take it seriously!

 

The actual death rate statistic, at this stage of the outbreak, is an unknown number since you can not calculate it accurately until the outbreak has peaked (i.e.: from a historical perspective).  It only serves as a rough gauge of whether deaths are increasing or decreasing over time. 

 

Simply dividing actual deaths to date by the number of total reported cases is NOT a valid equation since it does not account for those NEW cases for which death will be the end result.

 

The real concerning statistics right now are as follows BUT MOST NOTABLY R-Naught which mathematically expresses how contagious the virus is. (see end of this post):

 

• 40% increase in confirmed cases daily (it did drop a little lower than 40% yesterday but too soon to know if this indicates a true exponential break or just an anomaly.

 

• R-Naught (was considered to be around 2.0 BUT new modeling studies say it may be as high as 4.1! (i.e.: twice a contagious as previously thought).

 

• Serious Complication Rate (ICU bed required) which was holding at 20%.

 

If you project the exponential increases in reported cases and serious (ICU) cases with no break in the present exponential increases, you get this:

 

 

 

Of course this is purely hypothetical since the stats could just be an indication of how current hampered ability of Chinese to produce and test samples.  Still though, if these stats are even close to being valid, you can see how quickly the number of confirmed cases and serious (ICU) cases can grow.

 

By Day 18 of this projection, over 400,000 ICU beds would be required as a result of this virus!  Just to put this in perspective, the entire inventory of ICU hospital beds in the USA, for instance, is only around 100,000!!! 

 

In all of this, you have to keep in mind that this is a NEW virus.  Unlike Flu which has been around for a long time, very little is actually know about N-CoV.  There is no effective treatment other than tidal ventilation, neuro blockers to enhance balanced ventilation, and prone positioning. 

 

In other words...No anti-viral drugs or vaccines are expected for months.  Even though NIH is promising that a vaccine is perhaps only 3 months down the line, it will still take a year or longer of animal testing before it can be used on humans. 

 

So, right now everything depends on effective containment, and a serious attitude on the part of all of us to not downplay the potential danger of this virus!

 

People that say, "Oh this is just another virus...we've had them in the past and will have more in the future...nothing to be too concerned about...we'll survive and people won't even remember this in a year or two.  THAT IS PURE NONSENSE!

 

The only reason we survive through such outbreaks is because people DO take them very seriously and take prompt and decisive action to contain the virus!  So far, the Chinese have NOT been doing that too effectively.  While other countries are taking appropriate and effective measures, it still does not mean that they are immune to an outbreak!

 

Consider the Ebola virus from 2014:

As this graph clearly shows, the reported cases and deaths increased exponentially UNTIL containment became effective.  With an R-naught of anything greater than 1 there is absolutely no doubt that an epidemic will spread until containment becomes effective.

 

With an R-naught of 2 or greater, it will spread like wildfire!  If there is any doubt of this, just look at the numbers in China right now!

 

The REAL concerning news is about what the real R-Naught value for n-CoV may actually be!  In simple terms the virus may actually be twice as contagious as previously thought!

 

R-Naught value (R₀₎, for those who don't know, is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is.  R₀ tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection. If a disease has an R₀ of 4.0, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 4 other people.

 

Three possibilities exist for the potential spread or decline of a disease, depending on its R₀ value:

• If R₀ is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
• If R₀ equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
• If R₀ is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.

 

I'm not trying to be an alarmist, but as of yesterday, evidence is coming out that the R-Naught for 2019-nCoV may actually be closer to 4.1 rather than around 2.0 which is what was previously thought!  In other words, twice as contagious!  

 

It's important to note that this data has not yet been peer-reviewed so it may very well change BUT I think it is far better to know the facts, plan for the worst, and hope for the best...and take this virus VERY seriously!

 

This new virus modeling study coming out of China reports that the Wuhan coronavirus has an Ro of 4.1. That means it's much more contagious than previously feared.

 

If indeed the case, an Ro of 4.1 means there is NO way of stopping this virus from becoming a full-blown GLOBAL pandemic.

 

Again, this study has not yet had time to be peer-reviewed, so the data may change. But going with this new data in this fast-developing situation, it's really time to stop all the nonsense of downplaying this virus, and take it seriously!

 

Here is a link to the report:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf

Edited February 2, 2020 by WaveHunter

[shadowofacloud]

10 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

1. The epidemic most certainly demonstrates exponential growth. Multiple health organizations have stated as much. The International Journal of Infectious Diseases  

(Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak - Published 30-Jan-2020) concluded that The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. 

 

2. How can you discuss the  mortality rate when  we still do not know what is going on in China? You dismiss the deaths as nothing important. The 300  victims lives were important to the victims and their families. They did not need to die.

1. OK, I agree here. It is about the time-frame analyzed. If you consider the whole period, starting from 8 Dec, you can talk about exponential growth. The study you have quoted also took a partial time frame - starting on 10th Jan. However, the last 10 days or so, starting from when proper measurement, reporting and treatment began is mostly linear.

 

2. Stop playing on emotions, as this is simply pathetic. People died, die and will die, it is a simple fact of life. 60 people per day die on the roads of Thailand, tens of thousands of influenza every year. And the mortality rate discussed is based on the _current_ state of knowledge - whether is full or accurate is another question. But unless you can provide better data, the issue is closed.

 

And as far as having the full picture - we will most likely never have it. So the only reasonable thing to do is focus on the data available and extrapolate from there.

[Ventenio]

if anyone can see this....I'm in a bat cave, secret lab, and i think a few million bats escaped!!!  Don't worry, the vaccine is simple.  You need to find a ladyboy and get the serum rectally injected.  

 

good news, we all bought a billion bars of gold before we made this public.  

 

not sure if google translate is working well.....if you see a bat with red eyes, and can speak bat zombie, ask it to go back home

[URMySunshine]

3 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

if anyone can see this....I'm in a bat cave, secret lab, and i think a few million bats escaped!!!  Don't worry, the vaccine is simple.  You need to find a ladyboy and get the serum rectally injected.  

 

good news, we all bought a billion bars of gold before we made this public.  

 

not sure if google translate is working well.....if you see a bat with red eyes, and can speak bat zombie, ask it to go back home

Well sir it would seem you are already sick may you get better soonest !

[727Sky]

https://www.rt.com/news/479871-china-bird-flu-coronavirus/

 

Now the bird flu has started again.. Between the birds and the pigs being decimated you have to wonder ?

Quote

The outbreak took place at a farm near Shaoyang city, in China’s central Hunan province, the country’s Ministry of Agriculture announced on Saturday. 4,500 of the farm’s 7,850 chickens have died from the illness, and local authorities have culled nearly 20,000 birds to contain its spread.

H5N1 is an avian flu virus that causes severe respiratory disease in birds, and is contagious to humans.

H5N1 is a far deadlier virus to those who contract it. Nearly 60 percent of H5N1 patients die after contracting the sickness