11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Come on, it's well documented that there's been an exodus of jobs from the City already due to fear of a no-deal Brexit.

 

If you don't want to take the Independent's word for it, look at Goldman Sachs or what Sir Mark Boleat, an ex-chairman of the City of London Corporation, has said:

 

"Already bleeding

But jobs are already leaving London. Banks including JP Morgan, Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC and Goldman Sachs have already established subsidiaries in other EU countries.

Read more: UK bank Lloyds joins move towards several European hubs after Brexit

Brexit could result in the loss of 75,000 jobs and up to £10 billion (€11.1 billion, $12.9 billion) in annual tax revenues, Sir Mark Boleat, an ex-chairman of the City of London Corporation, has said.

The Oliver Wyman consultancy says if the UK strikes a deal giving full market access, the impact on the City would be equivalent of 3,000-4,000 jobs. If the UK has no special status with the EU, meanwhile, the industry would lose 18 billion a year in revenue which would put 31,000 to 35,000 jobs at risk.

The so-called nuclear scenario is that the European Central Bank forces the relocation of clearing of euro-denominated trading from London to the eurozone, with the potential loss of 230,000 jobs in the City.

https://www.dw.com/en/will-brexit-kill-the-city/a-45372847

You say well documented but it's not, is it? The banks (above) are creating European subsidiaries but they are not moving en masse and limited bank movements have been two-way, not just one-way. 

32 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

OK. The £ fell approximately 10% within a week or 2 of the vote. It's fallen another 10% since then. That's a total of 20%. 10% due to Brexit and 10% due to the strength of the Baht. That's 50/50. Happy to give you a maths lesson.

Yes, but what I was talking about was the reasons why the Pound had fallen against Thai Baht . 

  Half the reason is the Bahts strength , a bit of the reason was the Brexit vote and a lot of the reason was the uncertainty, is what I meant 

44 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You say well documented but it's not, is it? The banks (above) are creating European subsidiaries but they are not moving en masse and limited bank movements have been two-way, not just one-way. 

 

So when Sir Mark Boleat an ex-chairman of the City of London Corporation, says that "Brexit could result in the loss of 75,000 jobs and up to £10 billion (€11.1 billion, $12.9 billion) in annual tax revenues"

 

https://www.dw.com/en/will-brexit-kill-the-city/a-45372847

 

You think that he just makes this up and does not have data to make him think there are job losses?

 

When Ernst & Young does a study and finds that 

 

"City financial firms have so far committed to move at least 7,000 jobs and £1 trillion of assets out of the UK to prepare for Brexit, with the true cost likely to be higher, research has found.

Brexit has also cost firms £4bn as they have moved staff, taken out legal advice and implemented contingency plans, accounting and consultancy firm EY found.

 

The sum includes £2.6bn to build up a presence in other financial centres such as Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris to ensure smooth operation of services after Brexit."

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-city-of-london-jobs-financial-services-banking-impact-a8975711.html

 

You think the figure is not real data because the head of the Ernst & Young team has the name Omar Ali?

 

I think you're living in fantasy denial land.

 

Just ask any recruitment agent in the City, the relocation of teams to Europe is a fact.

 

It will cost the UK trillions to cope with Brexit. There's no two ways about this.

 

 

A troll post has been removed

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Conversely, those of us earning in Baht and sending money home to the UK every month are now able to buy properties for rental that are effectively 20% cheaper than those we were buying in 2015. Plus when we holiday back in the UK we do so not only with fantastic blue passports but with more pounds to spend in GREAT Britain from our Thailand salaries.

 

Bigger picture, British exporters are now much more competitive due to the weak pound.

 

So as always with currency swings, there are people who benefit and people who don't. As Thailand proves, a strong currency does not mean that everything in the country smells of roses.

Excellent news then. The whole UK economy should suffer massively so that you can personally benefit. Clutching your blue passport to your chest you can enjoy your gains. Of course I would imagine that you are in a very small group of people who earn in Thailand and send money back to the UK. The much larger group of expats living abroad will be more than happy to subsidise your good fortune at the expense of their own.

 

Bigger picture. Imports are now much more expensive. 

 

So as always with Brexiteers its a case of me, me, me and the rest of you can take the financial hit. 

3 hours ago, sanemax said:

Straight after the Brexit vote the Pound fell slightly. 1 or 2 Baht , it fell a lot after that due to the uncertainty of what what happen after the vote .

  10 % of the Pound falling was due to the Brexit vote, 40 % was due to the uncertainty and 50 % was due to the Bahts strengthening IMO

So with all the uncertainty gone (Johnson has a majority don't you know) how is the pound STILL 20% down? 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

So when Sir Mark Boleat an ex-chairman of the City of London Corporation, says that "Brexit could result in the loss of 75,000 jobs and up to £10 billion (€11.1 billion, $12.9 billion) in annual tax revenues"

 

https://www.dw.com/en/will-brexit-kill-the-city/a-45372847

 

You think that he just makes this up and does not have data to make him think there are job losses?

 

When Ernst & Young does a study and finds that 

 

"City financial firms have so far committed to move at least 7,000 jobs and £1 trillion of assets out of the UK to prepare for Brexit, with the true cost likely to be higher, research has found.

Brexit has also cost firms £4bn as they have moved staff, taken out legal advice and implemented contingency plans, accounting and consultancy firm EY found.

 

The sum includes £2.6bn to build up a presence in other financial centres such as Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris to ensure smooth operation of services after Brexit."

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-city-of-london-jobs-financial-services-banking-impact-a8975711.html

 

You think the figure is not real data because the head of the Ernst & Young team has the name Omar Ali?

 

I think you're living in fantasy denial land.

 

Just ask any recruitment agent in the City, the relocation of teams to Europe is a fact.

 

It will cost the UK trillions to cope with Brexit. There's no two ways about this.

 

 

Sir Mark Boleat is an ex-chairman of the City of London Corporation policy and resources committee and he used the word could.

 

Ernst & Young are one of the "big four" accountancy and financial services firms. As such a firm, EY have a huge interest in continued access to the EU markets from and through the City, even though they have offices all over Europe and the EU. I don't know the validity of their numbers but I do know that they have been associated in cover-ups and scandals - you can start with Lehman Brothers for those. So, no I do not necessarily believe them. Omar Ali's name does not change my opinion, one way or the other. Why would you ask that anyway?

 

There may be two ways about this, in that any lost business to the EU may be replaced by business from elsewhere. 

 

Your links are past their sell by dates and I won't be polling the City recruitment agencies. You go ahead.

14 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

So with all the uncertainty gone (Johnson has a majority don't you know) how is the pound STILL 20% down? 

again   rubbish

 

17 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

So with all the uncertainty gone (Johnson has a majority don't you know) how is the pound STILL 20% down? 

Still uncertain about how we are going to be leaving , still talks going on

20 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Excellent news then. The whole UK economy should suffer massively so that you can personally benefit. Clutching your blue passport to your chest you can enjoy your gains. Of course I would imagine that you are in a very small group of people who earn in Thailand and send money back to the UK. The much larger group of expats living abroad will be more than happy to subsidise your good fortune at the expense of their own.

Bigger picture. Imports are now much more expensive. 

So as always with Brexiteers its a case of me, me, me and the rest of you can take the financial hit. 

Why would the UK economy suffer because of a weaker Pound ?

Wouldnt a weak Pound be good for any trade deals ?

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Sir Mark Boleat is an ex-chairman of the City of London Corporation policy and resources committee and he used the word could.

 

Ernst & Young are one of the "big four" accountancy and financial services firms. As such a firm, EY have a huge interest in continued access to the EU markets from and through the City, even though they have offices all over Europe and the EU. I don't know the validity of their numbers but I do know that they have been associated in cover-ups and scandals - you can start with Lehman Brothers for those. So, no I do not necessarily believe them. Omar Ali's name does not change my opinion, one way or the other. Why would you ask that anyway?

 

There may be two ways about this, in that any lost business to the EU may be replaced by business from elsewhere. 

 

Your links are past their sell by dates and I won't be polling the City recruitment agencies. You go ahead.

Lol, so you dismiss an entire study by a team of one of the world's top four accountancy firms because they are deviously self-interested and involved in cover-ups and scandals. Okay, that's a sensible and balanced approach.

 

And you think you can replace the relocation of clearing of euro-denominated trading from London to the eurozone, with the potential loss of 230,000 jobs in the City by trading the Canadian Dollar? Or perhaps by trading the Ugandan Shilling?

 

Are you quite serious?

5 hours ago, izod10 said:

Duh,  keep up with events.  No unfettered access to UK,only British passports now issued not UK/EU ones  ,hint  clue  OK  access denied, now I know its going to hurt  but out is out  who says?  Boris  lol   not a chance of unfettered access, if "right of stay" is not stamped in EU passport  ,no work/ no accomodation,no nothing   off you go       Clueless  lol  lol

  What we are witnessing here is breakup of EU,nothing else,all tearing each other apart,come fishing ,clamping down of EU imports into UK   ,time is up for gang of morons

You really are clueless Here is what the UK state on their website

Who does not need to apply

You do not need to apply if you have:

indefinite leave to enter the UK

indefinite leave to remain in the UK

British or Irish citizenship (including ‘dual citizenship’)

https://www.gov.uk/settled-status-eu-citizens-families/eligibility

Irish passport holders have unfettered access into the UK no immigration stamps

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

So when Sir Mark Boleat an ex-chairman of the City of London Corporation, says that "Brexit could result in the loss of 75,000 jobs and up to £10 billion (€11.1 billion, $12.9 billion) in annual tax revenues"

Yes I highlighted the bit for you an underlined it. Same as George Osborne who spouted the same nonsense. Project fear even for the resilient Reamainers is laughable now. Only the lunatics actually buy into this now.

 

Last week it was Brexit that will damage the UK economy. Now its the Coronavirus. Just ask Mark Carney.

22 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Same as George Osborne who spouted the same nonsense. Project fear even for the resilient Reamainers is laughable now. Only the lunatics actually buy into this now.

 

Last week it was Brexit that will damage the UK economy. Now its the Coronavirus. Just ask Mark Carney.

 

It's not the same as George Osborne at all, this is a former City insider, who is very well connected saying jobs are at risk. Ernst and Young did a serious study which indicates that a no-deal Brexit will cost the UK trillions and bring heavy job losses.

 

Lunatics are the ones who ignore the obvious facts and walk blindly to their own ruin. Like the Brexiters.

 

Brexit, btw HAS damaged the economy. Re-read the Ernst and Young study, obviously you don't understand it yet.

1 hour ago, sanemax said:

Why would the UK economy suffer because of a weaker Pound ?

Wouldnt a weak Pound be good for any trade deals ?

 The UK is not a manufacturing-driven, export-based economy, it runs a big trade deficit. in addition, some 50% of UK exports incorporate imported components, which would offset any cost benefits that come with pricing goods in pounds.

And let us not forget that the UK imports around 25% of its food from the EU. These items, along with many other imported goods, will get significantly more expensive if the pound crashes. Of course, the poor  many of whom voted for Brexit, will be worst off as the pound in their pocket buys fewer things for their money.

2 minutes ago, bannork said:

 The UK is not a manufacturing-driven, export-based economy, it runs a big trade deficit. in addition, some 50% of UK exports incorporate imported components, which would offset any cost benefits that come with pricing goods in pounds.

And let us not forget that the UK imports around 25% of its food from the EU. These items, along with many other imported goods, will get significantly more expensive if the pound crashes. Of course, the poor  many of whom voted for Brexit, will be worst off as the pound in their pocket buys fewer things for their money.

What would happen if the Pound surges ?

21 minutes ago, sanemax said:

What would happen if the Pound surges ?

It won't.

 

 

Just now, Logosone said:

It won't.

 

 

You cannot say that with any certainty because no one knows how the Pound will perform in the future 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

It's not the same as George Osborne at all, this is a former City insider, who is very well connected saying jobs are at risk. Ernst and Young did a serious study which indicates that a no-deal Brexit will cost the UK trillions and bring heavy job losses.

 

Lunatics are the ones who ignore the obvious facts and walk blindly to their own ruin. Like the Brexiters.

 

Brexit, btw HAS damaged the economy. Re-read the Ernst and Young study, obviously you don't understand it yet.

Irish reporting  duh      Concentrate on ireland now onc sad sack of s.hit here  lol

21 minutes ago, sanemax said:

What would happen if the Pound surges ?

This is the wrong approach.

Currency only play a minor role in exports. The more important factor is what do the companies who are exporting decide to do with a weaker currency.

They have 2 choices adjust prices to reflect the new value and hope to sell more .

Or

Maintain the price pre weak currency levels and take the additional profit.

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

It's not the same as George Osborne at all, this is a former City insider, who is very well connected saying jobs are at risk. Ernst and Young did a serious study which indicates that a no-deal Brexit will cost the UK trillions and bring heavy job losses.

 

Lunatics are the ones who ignore the obvious facts and walk blindly to their own ruin. Like the Brexiters.

 

Brexit, btw HAS damaged the economy. Re-read the Ernst and Young study, obviously you don't understand it yet.

You're underestimating how robust the City of London is as a financial hub. You're posting lots of outdated news links from people and entities who were trying to paint the worst possible picture in order to prevent a no-deal withdrawal last year. 

 

You should (but probably won't) find it comforting to know the exodus you preach about isn't going to happen, and so far City firms have moved minimal jobs, just as a precaution. Calm down dear! 

 

Banks have moved 1,000 posts to rival hubs like Frankfurt and Paris since the referendum in June 2016, a report by EY said. That contrasts with some estimates of tens or even hundreds of thousands shifting to the EU as a result of Brexit.

London has extended its lead in foreign exchange and interest rate derivatives trading since the referendum, according to the Bank for International Settlements. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-18/brexit-has-cost-london-just-1-000-investment-bank-jobs-so-far

 

 

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Excellent news then. The whole UK economy should suffer massively so that you can personally benefit. Clutching your blue passport to your chest you can enjoy your gains. Of course I would imagine that you are in a very small group of people who earn in Thailand and send money back to the UK. The much larger group of expats living abroad will be more than happy to subsidise your good fortune at the expense of their own.

 

Bigger picture. Imports are now much more expensive. 

 

So as always with Brexiteers its a case of me, me, me and the rest of you can take the financial hit. 

Exactly    EU in dreadful situation   another 1 million mainy muslims about to enter EU,lost UKs contributions, all falling out over budget, ireland about to go tits up,surely the UK are in the most perfect position,perfect   IRA taking control of ireland   now excellent news    perfect storm for EU        Im 20% up on on income  come April   good news flows in for Brexiteers     cheers    keep it going you jealous pack  nothing down for you  lol

11 hours ago, Logosone said:

As the recent ban on labour from Europe clearly demonstrates.

Can you point me to where this ban on labour from Europe is documented please? 

 

If you're talking about the UK introducing a points based immigration system that treats all foreigners equally (i.e. doesn't favour EU citizens over others), then that's quite different to a 'ban on labour from Europe'. 

9 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Can you point me to where this ban on labour from Europe is documented please? 

 

If you're talking about the UK introducing a points based immigration system that treats all foreigners equally (i.e. doesn't favour EU citizens over others), then that's quite different to a 'ban on labour from Europe'. 

It isnt,total load of c.rap

35 minutes ago, sanemax said:

You cannot say that with any certainty because no one knows how the Pound will perform in the future 

Normally you'd be right. But the way the pound and UK economy look now it is virtually certain we will not see a surge in the pound for a long time.

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

Normally you'd be right. But the way the pound and UK economy look now it is virtually certain we will not see a surge in the pound for a long time.

Id say June,when decision to put WTO in place,EU kaput there and then   lol

30 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You're underestimating how robust the City of London is as a financial hub. You're posting lots of outdated news links from people and entities who were trying to paint the worst possible picture in order to prevent a no-deal withdrawal last year. 

 

You should (but probably won't) find it comforting to know the exodus you preach about isn't going to happen, and so far City firms have moved minimal jobs, just as a precaution. Calm down dear! 

 

Banks have moved 1,000 posts to rival hubs like Frankfurt and Paris since the referendum in June 2016, a report by EY said. That contrasts with some estimates of tens or even hundreds of thousands shifting to the EU as a result of Brexit.

London has extended its lead in foreign exchange and interest rate derivatives trading since the referendum, according to the Bank for International Settlements. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-18/brexit-has-cost-london-just-1-000-investment-bank-jobs-so-far

 

 

Not at all. 

 

As a financial hub London has already started losing ground. See more recent link here:

 

"Only a third of executives questioned say London is top financial hub, as Brexit looms"

 

New York remains the world’s leading financial centre, pushing London further into second place as Brexit uncertainty undermines the UK capital and Asian centres catch up, a survey has found.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/27/new-york-london-financial-centre-brexit

 

The exodus will most certainly happen if a no-deal Brexit happens. Only if the EU is generous and allows the UK to continue trading the Euro and gives broad passporting rights will the UK avoid this. 

3 minutes ago, izod10 said:

Id say June,when decision to put WTO in place,EU kaput there and then   lol

Makes sense. After all in 2019 the UK's GDP was a gigantic 2.824 trillion dollars whereas the EU had only a minuscule GDP of 15.468 trillion dollars. 

41 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It won't.

 

 

 

maybe so and maybe it will

 

don't understand you guys

some of you predicting glory for UK and the quid some predicting doom and dungeons

just as the msm and people at large have done since the runup to the referendum

wild predictions based on zilch (maybe not zilch but slogans at best) - all over the place

 

must ease a tad

now UK is in Brino stage, if BJ sticks to announced planning Brexit will come before next year

(now UK is pretty much a EU member as far as trade and pan European legal matters are concerned)

 

if BJ follows suit then you will have Brexit and be free to do whatever (within reason) before next year.

Give it a couple of years after Brexit and you can start predicting.

 

the basis for predictions is about as solid as the 2-storey campaign bus

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

again   rubbish

 

Why is it rubbish.

Do explain. And please include references not just opinion or shouting ya boo.