Can Sanders beat Trump? A growing number of Democratic voters say yes

[webfact]

Can Sanders beat Trump? A growing number of Democratic voters say yes

By Joseph Ax

 

FILE PHOTO: Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders speaks at an outdoor campaign rally in Austin, Texas, U.S., February 23, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bernie Sanders' Democratic presidential rivals warn that nominating the self-described democratic socialist will ensure President Donald Trump's re-election, but a growing number of the party's voters see the senator as their best chance of winning in November.

 

Sanders' dominating performance in last week's Nevada caucuses, powered by growing support across age, race and ideology, has set off alarm bells among Democratic Party officials who believe putting the progressive stalwart at the top of the ticket will harm the party's chances up and down the ballot.

 

Sanders' electability was a prime topic at Tuesday's Democratic presidential debate in South Carolina. Rivals contended his ambitious liberal policy ideas, such as Medicare for All, which would replace private health insurance, would be an electoral "catastrophe," costing the party the White House and control of Congress.

 

But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Sanders' rising momentum in the race - a near win in Iowa, a narrow victory in New Hampshire and a decisive win in Nevada - has given him more credibility with Democratic voters.

 

Some 26% of Democrats and independents polled Feb. 17-25 said they believed Sanders was the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, compared with 20% who picked billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg and 17% who named former Vice President Joe Biden.

 

That was a big change from a month earlier, when 27% of respondents gave Biden the edge, and just 17% thought Sanders could beat Trump.

 

In the Nevada caucuses, Sanders won the support of a majority of Latino voters and led among most demographic groups broken out by gender, income and political leanings in Nevada. Notable exceptions were those aged 65 years and older, as well as black voters, more of whom supported Biden.

 

That too could be changing. The same Reuters/Ipsos polling showed that Sanders had overtaken Biden in support among black voters nationally for the first time.

 

Saturday's South Carolina primary will be the first major test of Sanders' appeal among African-American voters, who represent about 60% of that state's Democratic electorate.

 

Three days later, 14 states will cast ballots on Super Tuesday, when Sanders could build an overwhelming advantage if he captures the lion's share of the available delegates.

 

His path has been smoothed by the fragmentation among the moderate candidates. Biden, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar – all of whom say Sanders' policies are too radical to win in November, have each recorded at least one top-three finish thus far, while Bloomberg's name will appear on ballots for the first time on Super Tuesday.

 

'NOT RADICAL'

Sanders argues the enthusiasm powering his campaign will lead to record turnout in November, particularly among young and infrequent voters, making up for any deficiency among swing voters or Republicans.

 

"A large voter turnout would mean that down-ballot Democrats will ... do better than they have in the past," Sanders told Reuters on Saturday in El Paso, Texas. "Our campaign is the campaign to do that: We have the energy, we have the excitement, we have the grassroots movement."

 

At Tuesday's debate, he said the biggest misconception about him, "and you're hearing it here tonight, is that the ideas I'm talking about are radical."

 

"They're not. In one form or another, they exist in countries all over the world," he added. "Healthcare is a human right. We have the necessity, the moral imperative, to address the existential threat of climate change. Other countries are doing that."

 

The results in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada have not provided evidence of a massive turnout surge, but Sanders' fortunes have improved with each succeeding state contest.

 

"If you want to win in red and purple places, the most important thing you need is people who like you or who are willing to fight for you," Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who ended her own presidential bid last year, told MSNBC on Tuesday.

 

"You need passion, and what Bernie showed so far is that he's got a lot of passion in his campaign."

 

'MAJOR CONCERNS' AMONG MODERATES

After gaining a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, dozens of Democrats will be defending seats in Republican-leaning areas. In recent weeks, several moderate Democrats openly fretted that Sanders at the top of the ticket would risk flipping those seats.

 

 

"I hear from constituents that they are afraid they are going to have a make a choice between a self-described socialist and an aspiring dictator," said U.S. Representative Stephanie Murphy of Florida, co-chair of the congressional Blue Dog Coalition of moderate Democrats, referring to Sanders and Trump.

 

"That's not a choice any American should make."

 

Polling released by Bloomberg's campaign on Tuesday showed voters in 42 of the most vulnerable House Democrats' districts preferring Trump to Sanders.

 

Guy Cecil, chairman of Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, said Sanders "has some capacity to expand the Democratic vote among younger voters," adding: "At the same time, he'll need to make sure he's doing more to reach out, in particular to those women - suburban women - that were really the benchmark of us taking over the House in 2018."

 

Cameron Brand, 24, a patient care adviser at a medicinal dispensary in Plymouth, New Hampshire, said he knew people who voted for Trump in 2016 because they disliked mainstream Democrats, but would vote for Sanders.

 

"Although he is being labelled as this radical leftist or whatever, he actually does have a lot of policies that the majority of Americans agree on that cross party lines," Brand said.

 

Entrance polls of Nevada caucus-goers from Edison Research showed more than 60% favoured replacing private insurance with a government-run plan.

"He tells it like it is," Brand said of Sanders. "He tells the truth."

 

(Reporting by Joseph Ax in New York; Additional reporting by Richard Cowan, Julio-Cesar Chavez, Trevor Hunnicutt and Simon Lewis; Editing by Scott Malone, Soyoung Kim and Peter Cooney)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-02-27

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[UbonThani]

Interesting debates if he's the nom. Joe Biden is boring.

[Somtamnication]

Basically, two cults fighting each other. Surreal on both sides.

[Puchaiyank]

Mayor Pete is their only hope...he offers a centrist option and appeals to younger voters...

[cmarshall]

15 minutes ago, Puchaiyank said:

Mayor Pete is their only hope...he offers a centrist option and appeals to younger voters...

You would expect that to be true, but it isn't.  Buttigieg has very little support among millenials and minorities, two groups that are essential for a Dem win.

[Jingthing]

12 minutes ago, Puchaiyank said:

Mayor Pete is their only hope...he offers a centrist option and appeals to younger voters...

Nope. He appeals more to older voters than younger voters. He has almost no appeal among blacks and Latinos. The star among younger voters in Bernie. Mayor Pete should drop out and help clear the field to oppose Bernie. 

 

It's basically a three way contest already for the democrats:

 

Bernie

Biden

Bloomberg

 

The 3 B's.

[EVENKEEL]

Wondering how it will work for civilians working overseas not being able to have their own health Ins, or retired military on Tri-Care. Will be a mess if Bernie does pull it off.

[candide]

28 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

Wondering how it will work for civilians working overseas not being able to have their own health Ins, or retired military on Tri-Care. Will be a mess if Bernie does pull it off.

Most European countries already have a system which is similar to what Bernie wants to implement. So there are ways to solve these problems.

[DoctorG]

11 minutes ago, candide said:

Most European countries already have a system which is similar to what Bernie wants to implement. So there are ways to solve these problems.

Not sure if that is actually correct. Bernie wants to abolish private cover altogether whilst European countries have a mixture of public/private.

[lannarebirth]

I expect Bernie could beat Trump with only half of the campaign treasury that Trump will have. It will be extremely difficult to hit that mark though. Big money donors are going to be thin on the ground.

[Vigilante]

Chances of Bernie getting the nomination are quite slim.

He will get bumped at the convention by the DNC bigwigs ('unelectable' etc)

Assuming he gets it I would give him a 50/50 chance

Ppl like freebies and Bernie will promise them by the truckload

Trump's slogans will be yesterday's warmed-up spaghetti.

 

 

 

[UbonThani]

Trump is a moral. Put your 15,000 on it instead of paying for the sick buffalo.

[Boon Mee]

Sanders is old news. 

The possibility of a Marxist like him becoming POTUS is laughable. 

[Tug]

50 50 at best imo I’d rather see Biden for his experience or Bloomberg for his financial savvy I think he would do a competent job love Bernie but we can’t afford him trump has the economy going on borrowed money and giveaways to the wealthy it’s not the right time for Bernie’s ideas

[JCauto]

2 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

Wondering how it will work for civilians working overseas not being able to have their own health Ins, or retired military on Tri-Care. Will be a mess if Bernie does pull it off.

The same way it works for us (Canadians). You buy overseas health insurance separately (Blue Cross, for example) and go home if you get something serious. Also depends on your status though, if you're an expatriate, then you don't get health care until after you've returned for 3 months to make sure that those who don't pay Canadian tax, don't get benefits. Of course, American expatriates are still subject to tax, unlike we Canucks. After all, freedom!

[nobodysfriend]

The real problems will not be solved by Trump . Sanders might be able to ...

Trump , if reelected , will go on ' his way ' , what will ultimately lead to more and bigger problems .

[EVENKEEL]

1 minute ago, JCauto said:

The same way it works for us (Canadians). You buy overseas health insurance separately (Blue Cross, for example) and go home if you get something serious. Also depends on your status though, if you're an expatriate, then you don't get health care until after you've returned for 3 months to make sure that those who don't pay Canadian tax, don't get benefits. Of course, American expatriates are still subject to tax, unlike we Canucks. After all, freedom!

That's the whole point. Bernie wants to do away with "all" private Insurance. I have Blue Cross/BS and was able to keep it after I retired a few months back. Bernie is taking it to a whole new level.

[DoctorG]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

It's basically a three way contest already for the democrats:

 

Bernie

Biden

Bloomberg

 

The 3 B's.

You are probably right JT but it would be good to have someone younger than 75.

Bernie will have a hard time with the Socialist label and certainly will not get the Florida Cuban vote.

Biden I quite like but unfortunately his mental state is a worry. Way too many gaffs.

That leaves Bloomberg. Are the dems seriously going to set up a NY billionaire up against someone they have despised for having almost the same traits?

I don't think Trump is worried. 

[JCauto]

12 minutes ago, Tug said:

50 50 at best imo I’d rather see Biden for his experience or Bloomberg for his financial savvy I think he would do a competent job love Bernie but we can’t afford him trump has the economy going on borrowed money and giveaways to the wealthy it’s not the right time for Bernie’s ideas

Don't fall for the corporate fear-mongering. Bernie will wallop Trump in 2020. Reason #1 is the same reason Trump destroyed his Republican opposition - he's the only one who actually inspires people to get out to vote and he has a huge base of incredibly loyal voters who WILL go to the polls. This is the whole reason Hilary lost, she inspired only disgust. Not only that, the people who go to the polls for Bernie usually DON'T go to the polls, so this will be new votes on top of the anti-Trump vote. Reason #2 is that the coronavirus is going to screw the economy that was Trump's only real accomplishment other than gutting environmental, education and health care systems and stacking  the Justice system with anti-abortion judges so they can further oppress women. Oh, and guess who shut down most of the US' ability to respond to pandemics? If you guessed the same guy who's telling everyone "no problem!" then you're correct. Bernie will make Trump own that and that will be the final nail in the coffin.

And why can't the US afford health care like we poorer countries have? Are they incompetent? Trump gave away $1,000,000,000,000 to the one percent and corporations and has built the deficit to levels never seen. Can you afford more of that? What would happen if the government actually walked away from massive handouts to corporations and building even more military capability and directed some of the funds to address health care, education and climate change? That's what we're talking about. If it sounds like it makes sense, that's because it does. 

[Marknreston]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

You would expect that to be true, but it isn't.  Buttigieg has very little support among millenials and minorities, two groups that are essential for a Dem win.

While your statement regarding Mayor Pete’s problems with millennials and minorities is true, it is also true that neither millennials nor minorities tend to turnout.   However, Sanders nomination for the Democratic Party nominee for President is a gift to Trump.  He will eat Sanders alive with Bernies socialist views and unaffordable/unpassable health, education, childcare plans. I spite of current polling numbers I can see another Nixon/McGovern scenario.  

[Chomper Higgot]

Trump and his supporters would love it to be Sanders.

 

It won’t be.

[spiekerjozef]

Who cares?

[Cryingdick]

Another embarrassingly bad debate being swept under the rug. They all acted like children and were pretty rude. It's funny watching a bunch of people of which none can win argue over who has the least chance of losing.

 

Bloomberg is just getting creepy, they say Biden has last his fastball but Bloomberg has no debate skills at all. However we are stuck with him so moving on... Warren, Steyer and Klobuchar should say goodbye. 

 

Buttigieg has won some delegates he should drop out swiftly though if SC primary shows he isn't the one. Biden seems to have better make up. You could almost imagine he could live another 6 months if you squint your eyes.

 

On the other hand maybe they should all stay in and let Bernie have it. It's becoming obvious the dems find Bloomberg as repulsive as Trump. It doesn't help that he has that arrogant, stereotypical, NYC, Jew, Billionaire thing going. I mean come on it's ridiculous. If you think Trump is ugly I can't imagine Bloomberg is held in much higher regard.

 

The tribe is divided and there is no clear winner. It is beginning to look like Bernie might do the impossible.

[Katipo]

It's kind of weird. Bernie is energising and uniting Democrats like no other candidate, and clearly appears to be the 'peoples choice', and yet the Dem establishment would have us believe he will harm Democratic chances of a win. How did that strategy work out for them last time? Hmmmmm. It's almost as though the Dem establishment is afraid of him. Hmmmmm. The two parties are different sides of the same coin. This is one of the reasons Trump succeeded, and hopefully why Bernie will also succeed. The US political establishment needs a complete colon cleanse.

[TheFishman1]

I hope somebody beat him

[Cryingdick]

4 minutes ago, Katipo said:

It's kind of weird. Bernie is energising and uniting Democrats like no other candidate, and clearly appears to be the 'peoples choice', and yet the Dem establishment would have us believe he will harm Democratic chances of a win. How did that strategy work out for them last time? Hmmmmm. It's almost as though the Dem establishment is afraid of him. Hmmmmm. The two parties are different sides of the same coin. This is one of the reasons Trump succeeded, and hopefully why Bernie will also succeed. The US political establishment needs a complete colon cleanse.

 

Yeah the momentum does seem to be building. It's interesting to watch. Much like Trump when he ran the field opposing Bernie is just so bad that they don't seem to be able to win. I don't say that because I prefer Trump either, what I say has no influence anyway. 

 

Bernie has a true movement behind him. 

[Jingthing]

12 minutes ago, Katipo said:

It's kind of weird. Bernie is energising and uniting Democrats like no other candidate, and clearly appears to be the 'peoples choice', and yet the Dem establishment would have us believe he will harm Democratic chances of a win. How did that strategy work out for them last time? Hmmmmm. It's almost as though the Dem establishment is afraid of him. Hmmmmm. The two parties are different sides of the same coin. This is one of the reasons Trump succeeded, and hopefully why Bernie will also succeed. The US political establishment needs a complete colon cleanse.

Absolutely wrong. 

Democrats are united on the need to dump 45.

On who will be able to pull that off democrats are deeply divided. 

And NO NO NO the majority of democrats absolutely do not want to nominate Bernie. 

Of course he may indeed be nominated but that's not the same thing as majority support in a still too crowded field. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-are-dealing-with-a-generational-crisis/2020/02/26/43bb7f40-58cf-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html

 

Democrats are dealing with a generational divide

 

The chaotic frenzy of the Democrats’ South Carolina debate dramatized a generational crisis and a divisive conflict over how damaging the word “socialist” will be in a general election.

[Skallywag]

If Bernie picks the right running mate he could win in my opinion.  Mayor Pete, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, would all be good VP's and next in line.  Heck if he could get Michelle Obama he could win in a landslide

[DoctorG]

There are a couple of Dems suing to have Bernie removed from the Florida ballot because he is not a registered Democrat.

Interesting times.

[Peter Denis]

Thumbs Up for a Trump - Sanders race! 

The dictatorial sociopath versus the democratic socialist.

In any other country there would be no shadow of a doubt who would win.

So if Bernie is not thwarted by establishment Democrats as the nominee AND if there is one ounce of sanity left in the USA, he will sweep the floor with the Orange Buffoon.