Foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand could be 10 million below estimates

[Isaan sailor]

I wish they had 'Vegas odds for Thai tourism.  I'd take a  large bet, over 10 million down.

[Airalee]

30 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

two weeks ago i told everybody they needed to decide where they want to be to ride out the pandemic. Thailand or return/stay home. 

 

we are now approaching the time when returning to your home countries may not be possible.

 

good luck.

I bought the ticket 2 months ago.  Not a big deal.  Just have to wait for a while for a refund.  Life goes on.

[NCC1701A]

2 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

If I’m not mistaken, the most powerful and genius of a man in the world also believes that the virus will go away like magic, like a miracle lol. 

i never said that.

[caribou1]

It says lost revenue “ 1.5billion baht. “

But if down 5.6 million tourists, and say those tourists spend 10,000baht, isn’t that nearer 56billion baht ????

[RichardColeman]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“We believe that the outbreak could be controlled by the end of March, which means April could be the lowest point for foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand,” he said. “After that the number will start growing again by July. However, if the lowest point is delayed to May, it would take at least three months or until September to see an increase in the number of tourists again.”

What nonsense. UK and EU are currently experiencing a boom that will be going on for weeks if not months. Predictions were peak April to June, To think the first thing the world will do is book a flight to Thailand is ludicrous

[sawadee1947]

Good news, time for self reflection.

.......but I forgot we're in Thailand ????

[tifino]

... 10 million less needing to be tested in the system

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Currently the TAT is estimating total foreign tourists in 2020 at 34.2 million, down 5.6 million from last year’s 39.8 million, which is considered a best-case scenario amid the Covid-19 outbreak,” he said.

You can tell when a tourism minister and country are shaking in their boots, when all you hear is tourism, tourism, tourism... they are so dependent on it they don't know what else to do!

So many businesses, bars, clubs, massage parlours, karaoke bars, restaurants, street vendors, beach vendors, tour guides etc etc etc etc have all been milking it for years thinking it was an in-exhaustible commodity.

Sex workers are now returning from other countries in their droves because of the corvid scare, what are they going to do when the come back?

For years it's been get on the tourism money train, so many rich people to rip-off daily.

They forgot to diversify and now pay the very high cost!

The government cannot afford to bail out every one, and there's nothing else for them to do as they posses no real skills.

Going to be a hard year for many people with debt rising like they've never seen before, if the government can't get a handle on the economy a lot of people are going to go under!

And I'm not talking about a few individuals, whole sections of the towns and communities.

[Airalee]

14 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

To think the first thing the world will do is book a flight to Thailand is ludicrous

Exactly...I’m going to Disneyland.

[drbeach]

They're dreaming if they think that in an epidemic year, when both THAI and foreign airlines have suspended around half of their flights and the Ministry of Health has announced laws to require medical certificates to visit Thailand if you're from a 'country of concern' there will 'only' be 5.6 million fewer arrivals, or even 10 million fewer. Not to mention some countries have banned entry to Thais and arrivals from Thailand.

 

If Thailand manages 10 million tourists this year, it will be a miracle. Besides, from a sustainability point of view, 10 million tourists is more than enough AND just over a decade ago, this was reportedly the number that visited. Something is fishy when the TAT can claim 3-4 times that number of visitors when the Baht is at a record high (although it has dropped somewhat in recent weeks) and still going strong despite all the headwinds the local and global economy are facing, even without COVID-19.

[ExpatOilWorker]

18 minutes ago, caribou1 said:

It says lost revenue “ 1.5billion baht. “

But if down 5.6 million tourists, and say those tourists spend 10,000baht, isn’t that nearer 56billion baht ????

It should have been 1.5 trillion baht. 

Proofreading TV style.

[Boedog]

Well sounds like they got this one solved, all fixed by end of March only 3 weeks to go, tourism slow in April and back to normal by July how good are they, then maybe they can get there heads out of there <deleted> and wake up to reality of how bad it is going to get

[drbeach]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

i reckon 90% of tourists will cancel holidays until this Corona is over, could take months then will restart with a trickle

They won't have a choice given most flights are now cancelled and more are being suspended by the day. That and the increasingly burdensome requirements to be allowed to get on a plane, even more so if you're from China, Korea, Italy or Iran.

 

The only foreigners that you're going to be seeing here very soon are expats traveling locally.

[Grumpy John]

Shouldn't  the headline read 'Foreign tourist numbers, after correction for border hops and ex-pats returning, may be 10 million this year'.  It pays to be honest!  ????

[Brunolem]

Tourism is going down to zero!

 

The reason is simple: not fear of the virus, but fear of quarantine.

 

Why would anyone take the risk of travelling to Thailand without being sure to be able to come back, at least without having to remain locked for weeks upon arrival?

 

Personally, as a Thailand resident, there is no way I am leaving the country before this whole virus story is over...

[Millcx]

6 hours ago, mstevens said:

Given the TAT always puts a positive spin on things, I'd expect the drop to be much larger than 10 million.

It was gonna be over 10 million before the virus issue but TAT would have claimed up by 96%

[Drax]

I was considering going one week to Vietname. Id get like 5000 baht vat refund on top of that. Should I still go or just stay in Thailand whole time hm ????. 

[Brunolem]

1 minute ago, Drax said:

I was considering going one week to Vietname. Id get like 5000 baht vat refund on top of that. Should I still go or just stay in Thailand whole time hm ????. 

The problem is that decisions to reject people coming from country X, or quarantine people coming from country Y, are made overnight.

 

So because today people coming from Vietnam enter without problem, doesn't mean it will the same tomorrow...

 

[oslooskar]

17 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Personally, as a Thailand resident, there is no way I am leaving the country before this whole virus story is over...

I share your sentiments as well and for that very reason I cancelled my plan to visit California last month. Hence, I am going nowhere until I get the all clear.

[thaibeachlovers]

Excellent news. Get arrivals back to early 1990 levels and Thailand might be worth visiting again. The hordes have ruined it this century.

Immigration also needs to learn the hard lesson that farangs are not unwanted in LOS and stop implementing policies to drive them away.

Accommodation prices 50% of now, 90 days visa exempt for western countries, back to back visits- that would make a difference.

[Max69xl]

6 hours ago, fruitman said:

Guests? You mean visitors from Thailand who now are stuck in Hongkong? So Thailand is on the ban list in Hongkong now?

I think HK is on the ban list.

[thaibeachlovers]

The photo in the OP of all the speedboats on the beach are like Pattaya in the bad old days. I hope those speedboat owners go broke- they ruined Pattaya walkway to the lighthouse, and Koh Larn beaches are horrid with them coming and going all day. No speedboats at all would be great.

[fruitman]

6 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

How many of those "tourists" who arrive in Thailand left Thailand a day or an hour ago and are actually on a visa run?

I guess Thailand will love those visa run people in the moment. It makes the tourist arrival numbers look so much better.

Well it really works, we were in malaysia last year while thailand was very quiet. The malaysian hotelowner asked us about the millions of tourists in Thailand because they had seen those exaggerated numbers and envied them.

[thaiowl]

“As for revenue from foreign tourists, we estimate Bt1.5 billion this year, or about three-quarters of last year’s total revenue,” he added.

Shouldn't that be Bt1.5 trillion? According to the World Tourism Organization, in 2018 Thailand earned USD63 billion from international tourism = Bt1.95 trilllion (USD1 = Bt31). So three-quarters of that is about Bt1.5 trillion

[papa al]

6 hours ago, ChipButty said:

Exactly, if you had done a visa run to HK yesterday and gone to the airport this morning in HK you are stuck there, wonderful!

So flights are flying BKK to HK

but not back?

[cyril sneer]

if I was planning a visit to Thailand i'd be more concerned about the double/triple pricing in tourist areas, than being put in quarantine

[thaiowl]

I have some

9 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Excellent news. Get arrivals back to early 1990 levels and Thailand might be worth visiting again. The hordes have ruined it this century.

Immigration also needs to learn the hard lesson that farangs are not unwanted in LOS and stop implementing policies to drive them away.

Accommodation prices 50% of now, 90 days visa exempt for western countries, back to back visits- that would make a difference.

I have some sympathy with this opinion. I have lived here for 30 years and in 1990, tourist numbers were I think about 7.6mn (vs 39mn in 2019). The country's infrastructure simply cannot cope with such numbers. Look at the crumbling roads, sewage water, litter, the ruin of resorts such as Pattaya, Phuket, Samui etc.

[Paul DS]

Sorry but Worldwide the Corona Virus is only just getting started!!

 

What with Italy now in full shut down and the Virus spreading uncontrolled in most EU countries the outlook can only get worse.

 

As to coming to Thailand for a hoilday....no chance!   The isue is many think Thailand are lying through there teeth, plus we may end up in quarantine on arrival in Thailand, then quarantine when going back to there country!

 

No one in there right mind is going to get on a plane for say 13 hours with recirculating air just for a holiday!!

 

I want to go to Thailand soon, its boring here in the UK! Supermarkets selling out of certain goods, football matches no crowds, shows cancelled etc, even my GP Surgery is closed for "cleaning" and I was turned away. A&E at the hospital queing up out the doors!

 

I expect it to get much worse before it gets better!  Sorry but thats how it is!

 

As an ad lib: I am sure many know that Viruses mutate very easily and lets be honest thats what Country leaders are scared about....what if the Corona Visrus mutates into something worse?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Paul DS

[Staxer]

Writing was on the wall...Crash coming!!! Feel sorry for working Thais but good for exchange rate.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 minutes ago, thaiowl said:

I have some

I have some sympathy with this opinion. I have lived here for 30 years and in 1990, tourist numbers were I think about 7.6mn (vs 39mn in 2019). The country's infrastructure simply cannot cope with such numbers. Look at the crumbling roads, sewage water, litter, the ruin of resorts such as Pattaya, Phuket, Samui etc.

In the early 90s Samui and Phuket were delightful places to visit. since this century they are horrid.

Pattaya was always a <deleted> but one didn't go there for the beach. At least the hotels weren't a rip off.