saengd Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Matzzon said: It´s not going to follow like you think, and you never see the change the same day. I would estimate that the baht will drop about 1% tomorrow. Why? The Dollar Index is actually strengthening. https://www.investing.com/currencies/us-dollar-index Edited March 12, 2020 by saengd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmen Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Lacessit said: All stock exchanges are taking a pummeling, not just Thailand. I'm just trying to estimate where the bottom is, to start buying. There are good value shares being trashed on fear, and some people will make a motza when the market recovers. Not buying any airline stocks, though. It's just the beginning and I'm expecting a 2008 style crash. Only a fool would try to guess the bottom. Wait untill there is a definite uptrend, better to pay more on a solid uptick than to catch falling knives especially since the markets are only just entering bear territory. Shorting the market maybe a better option depending on the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rimmer Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 A couple of baiting posts removed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pravda Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, saengd said: The SET is not the underlying force for the value of the Baht, the value of the Baht is not dependent on what happens on the SET. An old adage goes, equities up, currencies down, and visa versa. The following may help explain: What adage is that? Never heard of it. I guess when oil tanked from 150 bucks to 30 Canadian dollar should have shot up. Weird post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Pravda said: What adage is that? Never heard of it. I guess when oil tanked from 150 bucks to 30 Canadian dollar should have shot up. Weird post. Mostly applicable to USD and and US markets but also very much to the FTSE, look closely and you'll see a similar thing in various other markets. The basis is that money in search of yield is unlikely to invest in equities in a bear market. https://finance.zacks.com/stocks-rise-dollar-falls-9961.html https://www.schroders.com/en/us/insights/equities/how-indexes-rise-when-currencies-fall--explained-in-two-charts/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lacessit Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, madmen said: It's just the beginning and I'm expecting a 2008 style crash. Only a fool would try to guess the bottom. Wait untill there is a definite uptrend, better to pay more on a solid uptick than to catch falling knives especially since the markets are only just entering bear territory. Shorting the market maybe a better option depending on the charts You may be right. I'm looking at the dividend yields on some of the bluechips at current prices, and they are approaching 10% grossed-up. Of course, that assumes dividends are not cut. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post DaRoadrunner Posted March 12, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, madmen said: I'm expecting a 2008 style crash. Can you explain why? The way I see it the cause is a virus plus the Saudis and Russians going at it over oil pricing. To me these are serious yet temporary setbacks but not a complete crash like 2008. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post saengd Posted March 12, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said: Can you explain why? The way I see it the cause is a virus plus the Saudis and Russians going at it over oil pricing. To me these are serious yet temporary setbacks but not a complete crash like 2008. Exactly, and there will be a vaccine at some point plus the oil issue will blow over. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayaout Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, Matzzon said: Please do not invest one more baht in your life. Are you aware that you just compared virtual cryptocurrency with the stock market? You still do not se they are totally uncomparable, due to it´s gigantically different volatility? It´s not going to follow like you think, and you never see the change the same day. I would estimate that the baht will drop about 1% tomorrow. First I don't invest using Thai baht and second please don't invest in crypto you don't have a clue. ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyCarlton Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Thian said: So what should happen before the baht will drop? Fall in interest rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Susco Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said: Can you explain why? The way I see it the cause is a virus plus the Saudis and Russians going at it over oil pricing. To me these are serious yet temporary setbacks but not a complete crash like 2008. And how about the massive losses companies currently, and in the at least next few months, make? You think they all will be forgotten once this is over? China many companies going bankrupt, which means no parts available, and companies that produce rise their prices. In the west we are now only experiencing the start of the pandemic, cold season lasts another 2 months. I see worldwide stock markets decline another 20% in the next few weeks if not days, then wait for the next earning season for the figures to be published 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matzzon Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Tayaout said: First I don't invest using Thai baht and second please don't invest in crypto you don't have a clue. ???? I know you are using Bitcoin as you profile picture. Already done that and it´s growing since 2010. Now having 600 bitcoins. If you´ve done better please feel free to tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said: Fall in interest rates. You may be correct that a fall in interest rates will have some effect although I doubt it for a couple of reasons. Firstly, rates are already at a record low, the last rate reduction had hardly no impact on THB. Secondly, it is assumed that any rate reduction would make Thai assets less attractive to foreign funds but those funds have already withdrawn for the most part. Thirdly, the SET is extremely low now and at some point overseas funds will be looking to invest in it, that will mean hot money inflows which would further strengthen the Baht. EDIT TO ADD: another aspect of reduced interest rates is that they would make the coupon rate of government bonds lower which affects price, the demand for them would likely increase as a result and much of that would be overseas demand. All of that would result in increased FDI and a stronger Baht. Edited March 12, 2020 by saengd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayaout Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Matzzon said: I know you are using Bitcoin as you profile picture. Already done that and it´s growing since 2010. Now having 600 bitcoins. If you´ve done better please feel free to tell me. I dont feel the need to brag or tell other people how to invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post sirineou Posted March 12, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, saengd said: Exactly, and there will be a vaccine at some point plus the oil issue will blow over. Yes but in the meantime supply chains are being interrupted, production interupted, and consumption diminishing, All these things if allowed to linger can create structural economic problems that the end of the virus will not resolve. Let's hope there is a solution to the virus soon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyCarlton Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, saengd said: You may be correct that a fall in interest rates will have some effect although I doubt it for a couple of reasons. Firstly, rates are already at a record low, the last rate reduction had hardly no impact on THB. Secondly, it is assumed that any rate reduction would make Thai assets less attractive to foreign funds but those funds have already withdrawn for the most part. Thirdly, the SET is extremely low now and at some point overseas funds will be looking to invest in it, that will mean hot money inflows which would further strengthen the Baht. EDIT TO ADD: another aspect of reduced interest rates is that they would make the coupon rate of government bonds lower which affects price, the demand for them would likely increase as a result and much of that would be overseas demand. All of that would result in increased FDI and a stronger Baht. BoE reduced interest rate to 0.25 today. Pound dumped. Later a strong rumour came out that the BoE would further reduce it to zero next month. Pound dumped some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Susco Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said: BoE reduced interest rate to 0.25 today. Pound dumped. Later a strong rumour came out that the BoE would further reduce it to zero next month. Pound dumped some more. Its a huge mistake to think THB would react to a rate cut in the same way that GBP does, it wont, they are two very very different currencies and two very very different economies. To start with, GBP is freely convertible and a reserve currency, THB on the other-hand is a restricted currency that is very small, the former floats freely whereas the latter is a managed float to a soft USD peg. Thailand's GDP is based mostly on exports, 65% of GDP. UK GDP is far more diversified and at UK 2.65 trillion, much larger than Thailand's USD 500 billion. BTW GBP fell today on the back of Trumps blockage of EU travel, hereห ะ้ำ แ้ฟพะซ https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPTHB-exchange-rate/ Edited March 12, 2020 by saengd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, thedemon said: Sumeth Damrongchaitham, President of THAI Airways has just resigned today and there are rumours that the Director of Suvarnabhumi has done the same. I guess it's not much fun in the corporate world right now. Edited March 12, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Rinse & repeat tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyCarlton Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, saengd said: BTW GBP fell today on the back of Trumps blockage of EU travel, Nope, it fell on the news of BoE's interest rate cut. UK not affected by Trumps announcement. I don't know why you provided the link, I like most other people compare the value of the GBP to the USD and Euro not the THB. Edited March 12, 2020 by DannyCarlton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said: Nope, it fell on the news of BoE's interest rate cut. UK not affected by Trumps announcement. Youve got your days mixed up, the rate cut was yesterday. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-of-england-cuts-main-interest-rate.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/coronavirus-stock-market-us-trump-travel-ban-europe-dow-jones-a9396141.html Edited March 12, 2020 by saengd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yinn Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 45 minutes ago, Tayaout said: I dont feel the need to brag or tell other people how to invest. POTY Yinn says SELL! You can say thank you next week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmen Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, DaRoadrunner said: Can you explain why? The way I see it the cause is a virus plus the Saudis and Russians going at it over oil pricing. To me these are serious yet temporary setbacks but not a complete crash like 2008. It's not just a matter of a virus. It's whole economies entering a recession. The domino effect will be huge including the crash of the markets that are falling so fast that trading halts are needed amplified by traders now shorting the markets. It's a perfect storm in uncharted waters. Just my 2 cents and I could be wrong but wouldn't be betting a large portfolio on a good outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3NUMBAS Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 all stock markets are in free fall today after merkel said 70% will get it plus other fauz pas why dont they be carefull with these wild statements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said: Nope, it fell on the news of BoE's interest rate cut. UK not affected by Trumps announcement. I don't know why you provided the link, I like most other people compare the value of the GBP to the USD and Euro not the THB. I supplied that link because it's the one I had to hand and because we're in Thailand and THB tracks USD, it demonstrates that the value of GBP fell today at noon after Trumps announcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyCarlton Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, saengd said: Youve got your days mixed up, the rate cut was yesterday. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-of-england-cuts-main-interest-rate.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/coronavirus-stock-market-us-trump-travel-ban-europe-dow-jones-a9396141.html Fine. My statement still stands. Your second link in no way refers to the fall in the GBP, which was due to the interest rate cut and the threat of a further cut next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DannyCarlton Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 minute ago, saengd said: I supplied that link because it's the one I had to hand and because we're in Thailand and THB tracks USD, it demonstrates that the value of GBP fell today at noon after Trumps announcement. And after the B0Es interest rate cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Just now, DannyCarlton said: Fine. My statement still stands. Your second link in no way refers to the fall in the GBP, which was due to the interest rate cut and the threat of a further cut next month. Enough of this nonsense, there was no UK rate cut today, post a UK newspaper where it says so, the rate cut was yesterday, end of! And if you don't understand that currency charts, don't comment. It's perfectly clear that the value of GBP fell as the announcement was made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ventenio Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Bitcoin fell like 25% in 30-minutes. OMG, this is the end-of-days... only aliens will read our dumb posts. OK, I'm out guys...... off to stockpile 100000 rolls of toilet paper. 555 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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