Must Read Can hot weather stop coronavirus? Southeast Asia surge raises doubts

[webfact]

Can hot weather stop coronavirus? Southeast Asia surge raises doubts

 

A man walks in the street wearing a protective mask due to the coronavirus outbreak in Bangkok, Thailand March 16, 2020. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa

 

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A dramatic surge in coronavirus infections in Southeast Asia in recent days has increased doubts over a theory that warmer weather could stem the spread of the virus, health experts say.

 

Relatively low cases of infections in many Southeast Asian countries had been cited as possible evidence that hotter weather was suppressing the virus, giving hope to Europe and the United States as they head into spring.

 

But countries from Indonesia to Thailand to Malaysia and the Philippines have recorded their highest rate of infections in recent days as testing has ramped up, in a sign seasonal factors may only play a limited role in coronavirus’ spread.

 

“The temperature theory doesn’t really hold up given what’s happening right now in much of Southeast Asia,” said Tikki Pangestu, a professor at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

 

“People in Europe hope warm weather will kill the virus. I doubt this will be the reality.”

 

The coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease called COVID-19, has infected almost 170,000 and over 6,500 have died.

 

Though a limited amount is known about the new virus, some of the symptoms show similarities with winter influenza, which is more widespread in colder temperatures, although this is partly attributed to people crowding together inside.

 

Places where the virus has been felt most severely, such as Wuhan in central China, northern Italy and parts of the United States, share similar climates and temperatures.

 

The 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) eased over the summer months, although it is not clear if that was related to weather or coincided with tighter public health interventions.

 

The World Health Organisation said this month that there was no evidence that temperature would play a role in the coronavirus outbreak but it was an avenue worth exploring.

 

In Southeast Asia, which shares a hot tropical climate, many countries had reported few cases even months after the initial outbreak at the end of last year in China, in spite of the region’s close travel, business and investment ties to China.

 

But health experts said, rather than the hot climate, this was more down to limited testing, under-detection due to a lack of resources and more imported cases as the virus moves to multiple epicentres outside of China.

 

CASES SPIKE

“At best, warm weather might influence the spread but it will not see the end of it,” said Dale Fisher, chair of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the World Health Organisation.

 

“What is important is how effectively countries are isolating cases, removing people from communities. That’s the biggest factor, not the weather.”

 

The spike of cases in many Southeast Asian countries has been dramatic in recent days, leading governments to take drastic action to stem the tide.

 

In the Philippines, deaths more than doubled to 12 at the weekend, with confirmed cases rising to 140 – compared to three 10 days ago - prompting authorities to place the entire capital Manila under “community quarantine”.

 

Malaysia reported a further 125 coronavirus cases on Monday - bringing its total to 553 - the highest in Southeast Asia. Many were linked to a single event at a mosque.

 

Thailand, which reported 33 new cases on Monday, its biggest daily jump, plans to close schools, bars, movie theatres, cockfighting arenas and other entertainment centres.

 

Indonesia confirmed 17 more cases on Monday, taking its toll to 134, amid concerns that there could be large under-reporting in the world’s fourth most populous country.

 

Indonesia, which only recorded its first cases on March 2, had carried out only 220 tests a week ago but that has now risen to nearly a thousand.

Singapore, which has been widely praised for its monitoring and isolation of infected patients, from Monday implemented tighter restrictions on visitors from other Southeast Asian countries after a wave of imported cases from the region.

 

With so much still not known about the coronavirus, health experts say countries should not rely on warmer weather to slow the rapid spread of the virus across the globe.

 

“It is too simplistic to suggest a tropical climate can stop coronavirus because there are many other factors, like human to human contact which can happened very fast,” said Sugiyono Saputra, a microbiology researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences.

 

“Environmental factors may not affect the virus at all.”

 

(Reporting by Joe Brock; additional reporting by Joseph Sipalan in Kuala Lumpur; Widianto Stanley in Jakarta; Phuong Nguyen in Hanoi; Chayut Setboonsarng in Bangkok and Martin Petty and Neil Jerome Morales in Manila; Editing by Giles Elgood)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-17

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[canopus1969]

Because most Southeast Asian countries have been telling porkies - and still are !

[Ian Nagle]

Reading the article, the standout winners are Chickens.

[johng]

10 minutes ago, webfact said:

But health experts said, rather than the hot climate, this was more down to limited testing, under-detection due to a lack of resources and more imported cases as the virus moves to multiple epicentres outside of China.

 

5 minutes ago, canopus1969 said:

Asian countries have been telling porkies - and still are !

Same same but different !

[justin case]

most people live in AIRCOOLED rooms = colder than 27 °C

 

at home, the car, the office, shopping malls, BTS, MRT, schools (non-gov), airports...

 

you only need one sick person at lower than 27 degrees to kill this "hot weather balloon"

 

think about thais and their precious WHITE SKIN will not allow themselves to absorb vitamin D from the  sun !!!!

 

 

the super polluted thai air does not help anybody's lungs and this disease attacks ... THE LUNGS .... should be a wake up call but will be missed by those in power

Edited March 17, 2020 by justin case

[Dmaxdan]

17 minutes ago, webfact said:

But countries from Indonesia to Thailand to Malaysia and the Philippines have recorded their highest rate of infections in recent days as testing has ramped up, in a sign seasonal factors may only play a limited role in coronavirus’ spread.

If testing has been "ramped up" then that may also be a clue as to why the infection rate has also jumped dramatically in recent days.

[OneMoreFarang]

3 minutes ago, justin case said:

most people live in AIRCOOLED rooms

Where?

[Matzzon]

I stated from start that the virus would not slow down in heat. You have to reach the heat level of sterilization for that to happen. 

 

Nice to know that the experts are starting to agree with me. Maybe the posters that said I was wrong in my earlier posts regarding this, will also eat some humble pie.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, canopus1969 said:

Because most Southeast Asian countries have been telling porkies - and still are !

Which country don’t ? 

[bristolboy]

4 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

I stated from start that the virus would not slow down in heat. You have to reach the heat level of sterilization for that to happen. 

 

Nice to know that the experts are starting to agree with me. Maybe the posters that said I was wrong in my earlier posts regarding this, will also eat some humble pie.

The reason that knowledgeable people thought that hot weather might slow the spread of the virus was, to use a medical expression, "it's not the heat it's the humidity." Tiny particles like viruses don't travel as well in humid air. That said it may not make a difference. No one knows yet. This sharp rise could be just a statistical artefact or partially so. So it's a bit early to claim a victory lap.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, justin case said:

most people live in AIRCOOLED rooms = colder than 27 °C

 

at home, the car, the office, shopping malls, BTS, MRT, schools (non-gov), airports...

 

you only need one sick person at lower than 27 degrees to kill this "hot weather balloon"

 

think about thais and their precious WHITE SKIN will not allow themselves to absorb vitamin D from the  sun !!!!

 

 

the super polluted thai air does not help anybody's lungs and this disease attacks ... THE LUNGS .... should be a wake up call but will be missed by those in power

Exactly. Air con and closed or semi-closed air con systems. That's why there were so many cases on the cruise ships. Better to ventilate if you can.

[smedly]

China has a lot to answer for because of their stinking live animal food markets 

 

It is also worth noting that Thailand also has similar markets in Bangkok

[PatOngo]

37 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

I stated from start that the virus would not slow down in heat. You have to reach the heat level of sterilization for that to happen. 

 

Nice to know that the experts are starting to agree with me. Maybe the posters that said I was wrong in my earlier posts regarding this, will also eat some humble pie.

You da man, Matzzo!

[nauseus]

39 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The reason that knowledgeable people thought that hot weather might slow the spread of the virus was, to use a medical expression, "it's not the heat it's the humidity." Tiny particles like viruses don't travel as well in humid air. That said it may not make a difference. No one knows yet. This sharp rise could be just a statistical artefact or partially so. So it's a bit early to claim a victory lap.

From reading and listening, it seems an acceptable argument that this virus, like similar viruses, can live longer and transfer more effectively in cool, dry air, as it stays airborne for longer than in warm, moist air. Expelled particles (droplets) from our noses and mouths in warm moist air, will stay relatively large, mostly falling to and settling on the floor. The same particles in cool and dry air form much smaller droplets resulting in a fine mist that stays airborne - possibly for days - so that it is readily inhaled by others. When this virus kicked off and spread in Wuhan, the continental winter climate was cold and dry. The next main hot spots were Korea, Iran and Italy, all with similar seasonal climatic conditions.  

Edited March 17, 2020 by nauseus

[Mango Bob]

A total of 177 who got the virus in a country of 66 to 67 million people is very low.  You got to remember that Thailand has a large number of people return from China, South Koran, Taiwan and Japan which contributed to the count.

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, Mango Bob said:

A total of 177 who got the virus in a country of 66 to 67 million people is very low.  You got to remember that Thailand has a large number of people return from China, South Koran, Taiwan and Japan which contributed to the count.

What about North Koran? Mind your head. ????

[bristolboy]

36 minutes ago, nauseus said:

From reading and listening, it seems an acceptable argument that this virus, like similar viruses, can live longer and transfer more effectively in cool, dry air, as it stays airborne for longer than in warm, moist air. Expelled particles (droplets) from our noses and mouths in warm moist air, will stay relatively large, mostly falling to and settling on the floor. The same particles in cool and dry air form much smaller droplets resulting in a fine mist that stays airborne - possibly for days - so that it is readily inhaled by others. When this virus kicked off and spread in Wuhan, the continental winter climate was cold and dry. The next main hot spots were Korea, Iran and Italy, all with similar seasonal climatic conditions.  

It seems a very reasonable surmise. 

[xylophone]

2 hours ago, Ian Nagle said:

Reading the article, the standout winners are Chickens.

Pluck that!!

[nauseus]

7 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

It seems a very reasonable surmise. 

 

[Proboscis]

2 hours ago, justin case said:

most people live in AIRCOOLED rooms = colder than 27 °C

 

at home, the car, the office, shopping malls, BTS, MRT, schools (non-gov), airports...

 

you only need one sick person at lower than 27 degrees to kill this "hot weather balloon"

 

think about thais and their precious WHITE SKIN will not allow themselves to absorb vitamin D from the  sun !!!!

 

 

the super polluted thai air does not help anybody's lungs and this disease attacks ... THE LUNGS .... should be a wake up call but will be missed by those in power

Yes, I am sure that aircon is not helping. But in the PUBLIC space, that is outside the home, the heat and sunlight must be mitigating the transmission. And the majority in many South East Asian countries live without aircon.

 

Look at the numbers. Still around 120-180 in each country. Yes, perhaps there is some fibbing but if you live in one of these countries, ask yourself - do I know a person who has the symptoms? In the country where I live in Asia, I don't. In the UK I do!

[xylophone]

1 minute ago, Proboscis said:

Yes, I am sure that aircon is not helping. But in the PUBLIC space, that is outside the home, the heat and sunlight must be mitigating the transmission. And the majority in many South East Asian countries live without aircon.

 

Look at the numbers. Still around 120-180 in each country. Yes, perhaps there is some fibbing but if you live in one of these countries, ask yourself - do I know a person who has the symptoms? In the country where I live in Asia, I don't. In the UK I do!

All this talk about heat killing the virus would seem to be based on, "nothing much at all", and I say this because viruses such as Ebola and a few other exotic ones, originated and still exist in very hot and humid African countries!

[CGW]

2 hours ago, Ian Nagle said:

Reading the article, the standout winners are Chickens.

Or sheep? 

Edited March 17, 2020 by CGW

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, xylophone said:

All this talk about heat killing the virus would seem to be based on, "nothing much at all", and I say this because viruses such as Ebola and a few other exotic ones, originated and still exist in very hot and humid African countries!

Ebola transmits through direct contact. It does not transmit through air. Quite different to this.

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

Ebola transmits through direct contact. It does not transmit through air. Quite different to this.

Exactly right:

"What we know about transmission of the Ebola virus among humans

The Ebola virus is transmitted among humans through close and direct physical contact with infected bodily fluids, the most infectious being blood, faeces and vomit. ... The Ebola virus can also be transmitted indirectly, by contact with previously contaminated surfaces and objects."

https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/06-october-2014/en/

[Moonlover]

2 hours ago, Matzzon said:

I stated from start that the virus would not slow down in heat. You have to reach the heat level of sterilization for that to happen. 

 

Nice to know that the experts are starting to agree with me. Maybe the posters that said I was wrong in my earlier posts regarding this, will also eat some humble pie.

There are 2 common features with regard to academics. They always tend to err on the side of caution. And they also like to the first to be able to say 'I told you so', thus gaining another feather in their academic cap.

 

There is 'caution' written all over this article and there is still a long way to go before the truth fully unfolds.

 

So I wouldn't go preening your 'show feathers' just yet. As the old saying goes:

 

'It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings'.

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Moonlover

[Matzzon]

25 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

So I wouldn't go preening your 'show feathers' just yet. As the old saying goes:

 

'It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings'.

There is no preening any show feathers going on here. Just common sense that continues to spout indisputable facts.

 

Yes, it´s over. Clear as a cheese sandwich, the virus will not slow down at temperatures below 80-90 degrees.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Matzzon

[xylophone]

41 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Ebola transmits through direct contact. It does not transmit through air. Quite different to this.

Okay, bad example, but the heat theory would suggest that viruses in the likes of hot countries don't exist, because the heat kills them – – but the trouble is it doesn't and strains of viral flu and the like are just as prevalent.

 

I worked in Nigeria and I quote this from a medical journal, "Influenza viruses have been an underappreciated contributor to morbidity and mortality in Africa" and it goes on to say that with hospitals few and far between and equipment for testing for viruses just as bad, that under reporting is rife.

 

Other viruses in sub Saharan Africa, for example, are not killed by heat. Or at least not the sort of heat that normal temperatures relevant to that country, reach.
 

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, Matzzon said:

There is no preening any show feathers going on here. Just common sense that continues to spout indisputable facts.

 

Yes, it´s over. Clear as a cheese sandwich, the virus will not slow down at temperatures below 80-90 degrees.

Indisputable facts that epidemiologists have strong reservations about. The evidence for the virus' prevalence is only as good as the system for detecting it is consistent.  And that hasn't been the rule in SE asia.

[xylophone]

48 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The Ebola virus can also be transmitted indirectly, by contact with previously contaminated surfaces and objects."

As can Covid19.......and heat won't affect it.

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, xylophone said:

As can Covid19.......and heat won't affect it.

As far as airborne transmission goes, "it's not the heat it's the humidity." At least that's the theory.