Trump considers reopening U.S. economy despite coronavirus spread

[bristolboy]

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

We can be pretty sure the medical systems of the world, including the US, will be overwhelmed whatever happens. The only possible exceptions are the German, SKorean and Japanese health systems. The rest will have to go through panic mode like Italy, Spain and the UK soon

 

The number of deaths, of course, will be finite, there is only so much population. The same number of people will die either way, as our governments seem to be unable to test, identify and isolate the nececssary numbers.

 

Basically what you're saying is that we should all self-isolate to do the health services a favour. 

 

The problem is that self-isolation will mean herd immunity comes slower, so this is all dragged out.

The question is how overwhelmed? It will be less overwhelmed if the spread of the virus is slower.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, lannarebirth said:

 

If you believe China's numbers are false, and I'd say that a pretty reasonable view, all the more reason to maintain social distancing until new case and death statistics warrant a change in response posture.

The most recent study by Oxford university shows that half the population of the UK may already be infected.

 

Herd immunity means so many people are infected and immune that the virus can not spread.

 

In the absence of governments taking the fight to the virus, as they are unable to test, identify and isolate the infected in sufficient numbers, it would seem that herd immunity will be the most likely way the virus is stopped.

 

Social distancing means delaying the desirable goal of herd immunity. It means the virus will spread for longer.

 

Opening up a country for business will achieve herd immunity sooner.

 

It will also make testing and isolating easier.

 

 

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The most recent study by Oxford university shows that half the population of the UK may already be infected.

 

Herd immunity means so many people are infected and immune that the virus can not spread.

 

In the absence of governments taking the fight to the virus, as they are unable to test, identify and isolate the infected in sufficient numbers, it would seem that herd immunity will be the most likely way the virus is stopped.

 

Social distancing means delaying the desirable goal of herd immunity. It means the virus will spread for longer.

 

Opening up a country for business will achieve herd immunity sooner.

 

It will also make testing and isolating easier.

 

 

If true, Trump will claim that he knew all along that it wasn't really a pandemic.

[Tug]

We need to wait and see what the next 2 weeks brings if we start looking like Italy it would obviously be to soon as the experts say bottom line though I think the states have the ultimate say as to lifting restrictions be safe and healthy everybody 

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, Cryingdick said:

 

Maybe the economy hasn't been strong for you in ten years. However that is not the case for everybody.

Yes, some people made out like bandits.  They didn't offer to pay to lower US deficit spending.

 

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=J7XBTF2C&id=5A796C625B83CD7483FFA023B8B8FCD0507F270F&thid=OIP.J7XBTF2C3p76LHQ9SBs7MwHaEK&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.theatlas.com%2fi%2fatlas_41jxuEns%402x.png&exph=720&expw=1280&q=us+unemployment+ten+year+graph&simid=608022649792496181&selectedIndex=0&ajaxhist=0

[Ventenio]

hey guys, i'm on the edge of a cliff about to fall, but i have corona.  

 

you have two options

 

1.  save me and maybe shut down your empire, losing billions

2.  let me fall, control the media, and in 30-years you can write books on how bad it was.  you'll keep your empire

 

now TRILLIONS are at stake.  many people can get emotional over money and insensitive to people dying that you don't know.   

 

Trump was winning his game maybe 60-40.  he thought it was 99-1.   now he's losing 20-80 and this is when people do crazy things.  

 

i think he'll do fine ONCE there is medicine.  then you control the media, blame pharmaceuticals, and pass the buck...

 

this "flatten the curve" stuff makes no sense.  it's not possible.  

 

you can "reduce" the curve slightly.  the media just likes words like "flatten" and lots of other non-sense to get the public in check.  

 

i think we'll all get it.  all about when.....

[Logosone]

23 minutes ago, heybruce said:

No, we can be pretty sure that if new infections slow down to a rate where required hospital admissions are only a little more than during a routine flu season that hospitals and health care workers won't be overwhelmed. 

That ship has sailed, given the greater transmission rate of Covid19 it is not a reasonable expectation to think you can curtail hospital admissions to 'little more than during a routine flu season'.

 

Hospitals and health care workers are already overwhelmed and will continue to be so.

 

The solution to this is not for healthy people to sit at home doing nothing, it is for governments to give health workers the materials they need. As those health workers have been demanding.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Logosone

[metisdead]

Reminder, this topic is about:

 

Trump considers reopening U.S. economy despite coronavirus spread

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump is considering measures to reopen the U.S. economy, even as the highly contagious coronavirus is spreading rapidly and hospitals are bracing for a wave of virus-related deaths.

 

 

Some off topic posts and replies have been removed.  

 

 

Edit:  Off topic posts will be removed from this point without anymore public notices posted.

Edited March 25, 2020 by metisdead

[UbonThani]

39 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

hey guys, i'm on the edge of a cliff about to fall, but i have corona.  

 

you have two options

 

1.  save me and maybe shut down your empire, losing billions

2.  let me fall, control the media, and in 30-years you can write books on how bad it was.  you'll keep your empire

 

now TRILLIONS are at stake.  many people can get emotional over money and insensitive to people dying that you don't know.   

 

Trump was winning his game maybe 60-40.  he thought it was 99-1.   now he's losing 20-80 and this is when people do crazy things.  

 

i think he'll do fine ONCE there is medicine.  then you control the media, blame pharmaceuticals, and pass the buck...

 

this "flatten the curve" stuff makes no sense.  it's not possible.  

 

you can "reduce" the curve slightly.  the media just likes words like "flatten" and lots of other non-sense to get the public in check.  

 

i think we'll all get it.  all about when.....

Bs. KOREA made the curve flatten

 

30 days lockdown is enough

[heybruce]

32 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That ship has sailed, given the greater transmission rate of Covid19 it is not a reasonable expectation to think you can curtail hospital admissions to 'little more than during a routine flu season'.

 

Hospitals and health care workers are already overwhelmed and will continue to be so.

 

The solution to this is not for healthy people to sit at home doing nothing, it is for governments to give health workers the materials they need. As those health workers have been demanding.

The idea is to reduce the transmission rate of Covid 19.

 

Hospital and health care workers are overwhelmed in a few parts of the country.  In most of the US hospitals are preparing.  Slowing the transmission rate gives them more time to prepare.

 

Yes, the solution is to give health care workers the materials they need.  Currently needs exceed supply and production capability.  Slowing the spread of the disease provides extra time to ramp up production.

[Tug]

2 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

 

I am Gen X. Loads of Boomers are about to put out on the pack ice. I am not expecting an inheritance. I can live in my own country and prosper. Swoosh and a decent flush.

.............oh boy..........

[kimamey]

On 3/24/2020 at 6:42 AM, Farangwithaplan said:

It certainly is. It does help to consider both the financial burden and the protection of people without bringing self image into the equation.

 

Well let's look at the facts and then decide if 'flack' is warranted.

 

• This is a president that up until just recently told people that this virus would simply go away.
• This is a president that advised people it was still okay for people to go to work with the virus.
• This is a president that almost daily is contradicting his medical experts and putting them in very compromising positions.
• This is a president that has taken it upon himself to tell people that certain drugs can be used to cure the virus. People have now started dying from complications with those drugs because they followed this president's reckless advice.
• This president is still standing still while basic medical needs and products are just not available.

 

That's to name a few. So which of these points are you disagreeing with? Because if you do, I will happily give you first hand video recordings to back my points.

 

I think the 'flack' is warranted from this 'leader'.

 

 

 

 It is a difficult situation but if the USA and it's economy is so strong why can't they help people  more financially.  In the UK they seem to be doing that at last.

 

The other issue is that for the economy to function then it needs to sell things domestically and internationally. The USA isn't isolated from the rest of the world. This is a demand and supply problem and it's not an easy problem to solve. 

[cmarshall]

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

You will be in for a bit of a shock as this pandemic develops. Pof Wieler of the Robert Koch institute has said that at the end of the pandemic he expects little difference in the mortality rate in the countries affected.

 

Italy was just one of the first countries affected. On the very same day the first case was identified did Italy stop flights from China. Most countries reacted much later. It was simply because Italy was the first western country to be infected, due to tourism, that Italy had to go through the pandemic high points earlier.

 

Mass testing is exactly the right thing to do. Italy did the right thing. You are comparing Italy with Singapore, which is a tiny country. It is obviously much harder to test on a large scale in Italy than it is in Singapore. If Singapore was the size of Italy, if its population was as old, if it had been hit first, it would also have had the same issues as Italy.

 

Similarly the US can not test like Singapore. Herd immunity and opening the borders may be more sensible for the US.

Among the concepts that you don't understand is "mortality rate," which is the percentage of infected persons who die.  Even if the mortality rate should turn out to be similar across infected countries, which is not the case so far, that is only to say the lethality of the virus is more or less the same everywhere.  The goal of mitigation is reduce both the total number of infected persons overall and to reduce the peak so that the medical systems have capacity to treat all sick people, not just those infected with corona but also patients with trauma, heart attacks, cancer, etc.  So, if the total number of infections is reduced the number of deaths is reduced even if the mortality rate is not, to say nothing of heart attack patients who were able to get an ICU bed.

 

This is why it would be disastrous if our ignorant president does indeed attempt to defeat the current mitigation efforts for some financial or political benefit of his own.

[cmarshall]

If you have been watching Rachel Maddow this week, she has had several reports on a company, Kinsa, that has been selling web-enabled thermometers for eight years.  When you take your temperature the reading gets uploaded automatically and instantaneously to the company, Kinsa.  With sales of over a million units and eight years of data, they are in a position to determine the aggregate excess high temperature readings in an area which suggests the spread of some fever-inducing illness, but, of course, cannot diagnose it.  The graph below of the US shows the excess fever readings over the seasonally-expected rates throughout the areas where units are in use.  Notice the two hotspots: the NY metropolitan area and the state of Florida.  Covid is certainly the culprit in NYC, which already has 30% of the total US cases of infection.  Unless there is some other, unknown source of illness in Florida, the Sunshine State is about to explode with corona.  Good work Gov. DeSantis, who has failed to issue a shelter-at-home order, failed to close the beaches, etc.  

 

 

https://healthweather.us/

 

[cyril sneer]

nice curves

[Logosone]

8 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Unless there is some other, unknown source of illness in Florida, the Sunshine State is about to explode with corona. 

You hardly need web thermometres to predict that, as one of the states with the most retired old people Florida was always going to be big target for the virus

 

Whether a politician declares a state of emergency will be less important than testing, identifying and isolating the infected. 

 

But since the US seems unable to do that, in part due to their scientists having designed poor test kits too late but mostly do to the sheer size of the US, opening the country up for business would allow immunity to reach such numbers that the virus can not spread anymore and is controlled.

 

They should open for business. A better bet for the US than self-isolating or trying to do mass testing.

[bristolboy]

13 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

If you have been watching Rachel Maddow this week, she has had several reports on a company, Kinsa, that has been selling web-enabled thermometers for eight years.  When you take your temperature the reading gets uploaded automatically and instantaneously to the company, Kinsa.  With sales of over a million units and eight years of data, they are in a position to determine the aggregate excess high temperature readings in an area which suggests the spread of some fever-inducing illness, but, of course, cannot diagnose it.  The graph below of the US shows the excess fever readings over the seasonally-expected rates throughout the areas where units are in use.  Notice the two hotspots: the NY metropolitan area and the state of Florida.  Covid is certainly the culprit in NYC, which already has 30% of the total US cases of infection.  Unless there is some other, unknown source of illness in Florida, the Sunshine State is about to explode with corona.  Good work Gov. DeSantis, who has failed to issue a shelter-at-home order, failed to close the beaches, etc.  

 

 

https://healthweather.us/

 

fascinating. Also a lot in Texas where the governor has refused to issue a stay in place order. Notice that in the Bible belt states there's a lot of fever too. Possibly attributable to the fact that Trump loving fundamentalists have continued to attend Sunday church services?

To be fair to Florida, some of that is probably due to the fact that it's a major tourist and snowbird destination. Which doesn't excuse the foolishness of its governor.

And of course, the high number of seniors.

Edited March 25, 2020 by bristolboy

[UbonThani]

The US is too big for lockdowns now. Its spread too far. Just protect older people and give retirement homes and hospitals more medical stuff.

 

Others go back to work and spend $.

 

 

[bristolboy]

Just now, UbonThani said:

The US is too big for lockdowns now. Its spread too far. Just protect older people and give retirement homes and hospitals more medical stuff.

 

Others go back to work and spend $.

 

 

You can't protect older people if others are circulating freely. Unless they have no contact at all with the rest of society. Which is impossible.

[david555]

He has no choice as his re election is depending on it

[cleopatra2]

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

You hardly need web thermometres to predict that, as one of the states with the most retired old people Florida was always going to be big target for the virus

 

Whether a politician declares a state of emergency will be less important than testing, identifying and isolating the infected. 

 

But since the US seems unable to do that, in part due to their scientists having designed poor test kits too late but mostly do to the sheer size of the US, opening the country up for business would allow immunity to reach such numbers that the virus can not spread anymore and is controlled.

 

They should open for business. A better bet for the US than self-isolating or trying to do mass testing.

The issue about letting a virus run rampant throughout society is the opportunity for mutation is increased.

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

The US is too big for lockdowns now. Its spread too far. Just protect older people and give retirement homes and hospitals more medical stuff.

 

Others go back to work and spend $.

It doesn't work out that way because it's the younger people who spread the virus. Think of every one travelling to work everyday and bringing it back to the older folks. Not only that but fully infecting everyone would collapse the medical system. Try reading how younger people describe the illness, 50X harder than flu, razor blades in my lungs for 2 weeks, each breath a major effort.

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by rabas

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

It doesn't work out that way because it's the younger people who spread the virus. Think of every one travelling to work everyday and bringing it back to the older folks. Not only that but fully infecting everyone would collapse the medical system. Try reading how younger people describe the illness, 50X harder than flu, razor blades in my lungs for 2 weeks, each breath a major effort.

 

Also, some report sustaining prolonged and possibility permanent damage to their lungs.

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, cleopatra2 said:

The issue about letting a virus run rampant throughout society is the opportunity for mutation is increased.

That could be a very good thing. A mutation can go in our favour as well. One of the reasons SARS disappeared was because in a mutation it lost a key part of its genome which appeared to affect the transmission rate.

 

So it can also happen that an increased mutation ends up being in our favour.

 

By all accounts the rate of mutation of Covid19 is rather slow. Much slower than for other viruses.

 

It does mutate, but so far those mutations have been of no consequence.

 

 

 

[Logosone]

33 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Well Logosone, you are pretty keen on your herd immunity, and have pursued it in a number of posts. I am not suggesting that your knowledge is poor, but there do appear to be some factors that you haven't given true weight to. Anyway I suggest that you read this which makes it clear that it is not a simple one size fits all concept. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

 

The crucial factor is the herd immunity threshold (HIT) , which differs according to the agent of infection. Information on Covid 19 is of course limited at this stage, but does present some alarming possibilities.

Taking a HIT of 29-74% for Covid, and a death per infection rate of 1% to 4%, and the world's population at 7billion we are looking at something between 20 million and 200 million deaths to achieve HIT. If it is the higher figure - which no one can tell until we get way more data- would you happily see a figure equating to 60% of the US population die, to achieve world immunity?

 

"Re-starting" the US economy on what the mind numbingly idiotic "Glorious leader" insanely describes as a beautiful date (Day/time/whatever) could come at a cost that no decent human being would be prepared to pay. 

Thanks Nigel, I read that article. This is exactly what we need to do look at things in detail.

 

First of all, I would much prefer the test, identify and isolate approach that is done in Germany, also SKorea and Singapore, with great success. However, it appears that would not be possible in the US, or Thailand, because of various reasons, lack of test kits, in the case of the US the population just being too large and spread out.

 

So this leaves the US with herd immunity. Indeed the HIT figure is the crucial factor, however the death rate you use of 1% or 4% is extremely unlikely to be accurate once the pandemic is over. The reason is that this figure only takes identified cases. If you were to take the figure of Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK chief medical advisor, a ten times or twenty times multiple for actual cases you would get a death rate much lower than the huge figure you get when you use merely identified cases. It is completely wrong to suggest that 60% of the US population could die, that is absolutely, completely and manifestly false.

 

So that is not the cost of opening the country for business. The cost is to paid anyway, people will die. The question is which is the faster way to achieve herd immunity. It would appear to be opening the US for business.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Logosone

[metisdead]

Another reminder, this topic is about:

 

Trump considers reopening U.S. economy despite coronavirus spread

 

Some more off topic posts and replies have been removed.  

 

 

A troll post using Twitter content has been removed:

 

18) Social Media content is not to be used as  source material unless it is from a recognized or approved news media source,  the source of any such material (Twitter, Facebook  etc.) should always be shown.

[Neeranam]

The US economy has been due to crash. The powers that be were just waiting for a black swan event like this to enable the global financial reset.

 

It's not Trumps fault, yet those who don't like him will try to make it a political issue.

 

[mike787]

TRUMP should and will...to heck with Covid, it's NOT the plague, just a bad flu...if it's time to die then let it be.

Edited March 25, 2020 by mike787

[Sujo]

I dont think people become immune. Already a case of a person getting it twice.

 

very ordinary of posters thinking the elderly are expendable for the sake of the economy. Lets start with their family then.

 

only option is to close it all down until a vaccine is found.

[Logosone]

The people getting it twice are an exception. The rule is immunity.

 

"However, it is very likely, based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation.."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

It would therefore make perfect sense for Trump to let America be open for business again. The more infections the greater the number of immune people, the sooner the virus pandemic will end. 

 

It's the best option for the US. And yes, very dangerous for the elderly.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Logosone