Please read these medical opinions

[Brunolem]

You really need to read this, it's not medical but financial, and it's really frightening...

 

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-senates-coronavirus-relief-package-must-be-stopped/

 

 

[JetsetBkk]

23 hours ago, Logosone said:

In 2012 the Robert Koch Institute warned about this pandemic. In 2015 Bill Gates warned about a coming pandemic. And those are just the ones who went on record.

And 2007:

 

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

You really need to read this, it's not medical but financial, and it's really frightening...

 

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-senates-coronavirus-relief-package-must-be-stopped/

 

 

"It means that Mnuchin is transforming the US Treasury into a hedge fund. That’s what it means. It means that the Treasury is going to use the $450 billion that is obliquely allocated in the emergency bill, to create a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)–which is a sleazy, off-balance sheet operation that is used to conceal underhanded bookkeeping, that will leverage up by 10x (which means that the Fed will use the $450 billion to borrow tens times more than the original amount or $4.5 trillion) that will be stealthily used to bail out underwater corporations, financial institutions and, yes, banks."

 

Well, that's good news for the Cayman Islands then. This will be the mothership of all SPVs.

 

Interesting isn't it, the US will issue Commercial Paper on the back of that SPV I'd guess. Purely to make the figures in the balance sheet look good. Goldman Sachs/Greece trickery all over again. 

[Logosone]

41 minutes ago, JetsetBkk said:

And 2007:

 

All these geniuses who did their job should get a medal. Politicians who didn't do theirs should get a public flogging.

 

Instead they'll get all the credit for the genius social distancing measures, which will of course be sold has having worked, after herd immunity stops the virus.

 

And those scientists who actually warned everyone will be forgotten and in oblivion. 

[geriatrickid]

8 hours ago, Logosone said:

All these geniuses who did their job should get a medal. Politicians who didn't do theirs should get a public flogging.

 

Instead they'll get all the credit for the genius social distancing measures, which will of course be sold has having worked, after herd immunity stops the virus.

 

And those scientists who actually warned everyone will be forgotten and in oblivion. 

Why are you obsessed with the concept of  "herd immunity"? You cling to it like  the proponents of Eugenics insisted that their misapplied notions were valid. 

 

Please provide one valid example of "herd immunity" as you  use it, where it has stopped a viral infection.

 

I will make it simple for you, there isn't an example. Not one.

Herd immunity when applied to a pandemic,  is a term associated with the use of vaccination, not with allowing a population to  become ill.

Your insistence of relying on herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine is fiscally irresponsible and morally wrong. What do you intend to do with the millions of people who will become seriously ill? You ignore the fact that people are are now descending upon the  health care systems around the world pushing them to the brink of collapse. There is a staggering cost to  your demand that we allow the disease to run its course. This is what the Netherlands initially did and it is seeing the cost. It changed its position. The UK had the same  idiotic position until the  sick started to pile up. 

  

Your concept of  herd  immunity is a perversion of the actual concept and a gross misuse of the term. It mirrors the mentality of Stalin when he sent millions to Siberia  saying the strong would survive and is no different than that of the death marches that occurred in the last century. It is  evil and has no place in civilized society.

 

More importantly, you really do not have a good grasp of evolutionary biology. It would be laughable if it wasn't so firghtening.  Yes, we can see short term immunity with some contagious viral infections. However, it is quickly defeated when a variant strain appears. This is why  the flu vaccines are  changed each year. New vaccine for new strain. If we had long term "herd immunity" to viral infections we wouldn't have a need for an influenza vaccine each year would we?  

 

It is wonderful that you read some stuff online, but it doesn't make you an expert or knowledgeable about public health. Here's the defining reason why you are wrong: If we could develop herd immunity to deadly viral infections,  HIV would not be the  ongoing curse that it is. With your logic, we should be able to clear the infection on our own and be immune.  Unfortunately, that is not how virus based disease works.

 

There is only one way we can control this  scourge and that is through social distancing and isolation of the infected. This is the proven and demonstrable public health management strategy when we have no treatments and no vaccine.  it is also common sense. We need the time to develop a vaccine.  You want an instant solution and  that is not how  it works. We must be patient and follow the prescription.

Edited March 28, 2020 by geriatrickid

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

Why are you obsessed with the concept of  "herd immunity"? You cling to it like  the proponents of Eugenics insisted that their misapplied notions were valid. 

 

Please provide one valid example of "herd immunity" as you  use it, where it has stopped a viral infection.

 

I will make it simple for you, there isn't. Not one.

Herd immunity  is associated with vaccination, not with allowing a population to  become ill.

Your insistence of relying on herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine is fiscally irresponsible and morally wrong. What do you intend to do with the millions of people who will become seriously ill? You ignore the fact that people are are now descending upon the  health care systems around the world pushing them to the brink of collapse.  

Your concept of  herd  immunity is a perversion of the actual concept and a gross misue of the term because your approach  mirrors the mentality of Stalin when he sent millions to Siberia  saying the strong would survive and is no different than that of the death marches that occurred in the last century. It is  evil and has no place in civilized society.

 

More importantly, you really do not have a good grasp of evolutionary biology. It would be laughable if it wasn't so ignorant.  Yes, we can see short term immunity with some contagious viral infections. However, it is quickly defeated when a variant strain appears. This is why  the flu vaccines are  changed each year. New vaccine for new strain. If we had long term "herd immunity" to viral infections we wouldn't have a need for an influenza vaccine each year would we.  

 

It is wonderful that you read some stuff online, but it doesn't make you an expert or knowledgeable about public health. Here's the defining reason why you are wrong: If we could develop herd immunity to deadly viral infections,  HIV would not be the  ongoing curse that it is. With your logic, we sould be able to clear the infection on our own and be immune.  Unfortunately, that is not how virus based disease works.

 

There is only one way we can control this  scourge and that is through social distancing and isolation of the infected. We need the time to develop a vaccine.  No vaccine means that we will see this virus again next year.

And of course YOU are an expert.

 

Your references if you don't mind?

 

How many vaccines against other strands of coronaviruses do actually exist?

 

The hospitals are clogged with patients because they were already full with people suffering from other deadly diseases.

 

Give me a choice between cancer and coronavirus, and I will gladly take my chances with the virus...

[mike787]

can't fix crazy people...nice idea.  

[Logosone]

4 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Why are you obsessed with the concept of  "herd immunity"? You cling to it like  the proponents of Eugenics insisted that their misapplied notions were valid. 

 

Please provide one valid example of "herd immunity" as you  use it, where it has stopped a viral infection.

 

I will make it simple for you, there isn't an example. Not one.

Herd immunity when applied to a pandemic,  is a term associated with the use of vaccination, not with allowing a population to  become ill.

Your insistence of relying on herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine is fiscally irresponsible and morally wrong. What do you intend to do with the millions of people who will become seriously ill? You ignore the fact that people are are now descending upon the  health care systems around the world pushing them to the brink of collapse. There is a staggering cost to  your demand that we allow the disease to run its course. This is what the Netherlands initially did and it is seeing the cost. It changed its position. The UK had the same  idiotic position until the  sick started to pile up. 

  

Your concept of  herd  immunity is a perversion of the actual concept and a gross misuse of the term. It mirrors the mentality of Stalin when he sent millions to Siberia  saying the strong would survive and is no different than that of the death marches that occurred in the last century. It is  evil and has no place in civilized society.

 

More importantly, you really do not have a good grasp of evolutionary biology. It would be laughable if it wasn't so firghtening.  Yes, we can see short term immunity with some contagious viral infections. However, it is quickly defeated when a variant strain appears. This is why  the flu vaccines are  changed each year. New vaccine for new strain. If we had long term "herd immunity" to viral infections we wouldn't have a need for an influenza vaccine each year would we?  

 

It is wonderful that you read some stuff online, but it doesn't make you an expert or knowledgeable about public health. Here's the defining reason why you are wrong: If we could develop herd immunity to deadly viral infections,  HIV would not be the  ongoing curse that it is. With your logic, we should be able to clear the infection on our own and be immune.  Unfortunately, that is not how virus based disease works.

 

There is only one way we can control this  scourge and that is through social distancing and isolation of the infected. This is the proven and demonstrable public health management strategy when we have no treatments and no vaccine.  it is also common sense. We need the time to develop a vaccine.  You want an instant solution and  that is not how  it works. We must be patient and follow the prescription.

The reason why 'social distancing' was adopted was a model by Imperial College. It said that 40 million people could die. It will comfort you to know, I'm sure, that one of the main authors of that model, Neil Ferguson has now retracted his apocalyptic prediction.

 

He now quietly revised his prediction of dead in the UK downward to 20,000.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

 

The New Scientist reports Ferguson did acknowledge it was impractical to keep the country in an isolated lockdown for 12 to 18 months waiting for a vaccine , especially because of the impact on the economy. “We’ll be paying for this year for decades to come,” he said.

 

So you can relax the hysteria a bit, I'm not sending millions to Siberia like Stalin. But you may be sending milions to the poor house with your blind faith in social distancing. A policy for which no solid data or credible scientific evidence exists that it would even work.

 

In contrast, with immunity there is ample evidence to show it works. Witness Sir Patrick Vallance who could base his entire strategy on herd immunity, or Prof Cohen who says that immunity is a reasonable assumption, so I'm afraid that is the best option we have. Since, as you should know, social distancing is not a solution and there is no data whatsoever to support that it works.

 

It is true of course that herd immunity is used in vaccination models, but we are here in a position where the very fast and unusually stealthy transmission of Covid19 effectively does the same as vaccination would achieve. So many people will have it that transmission will stop. This will happen faster than the vaccine most likely.

 

Your argument that because we have to change vaccines for influenza each year and therefore we cannot rely on immunity is plain false. This virus, Covid19 is a coronavirus. It is not an influenza virus. You are obviously unaware that coronaviruses mutate far less than influenza viruses. So far very few mutations have been found, and all were inconsequential.

 

What's more, mutations are not always to our disadvantage. The SARS virus lost a part of its genome in a mutation that was related to transmission and it worked in our favour. Now, it may well happen that eventually, down the line a mutation of Covid19 could happen, and it probably will, so that acquired immunity will be impaired. However, that does not happen in a month, or 6 months, it would take far longer in the case of Covid19, because it does not mutate a lot, compared to influenza viruses.

 

There are of course viral diseaes that have been completely eradicated, like smallpox. No mutation has revived smallpox. Ever.

 

You think that social distancing will save lives because it will allow more beds in hospitals. The exact opposite could be true, it could cost lives. Because rather than a short sharp Covid19 shock, the hospitals would be faced with a drawn out focus on Covid 19 when beds would be requisitioned, operations cancelled, and care impaired for the 80% of patients who have a critical condition other than Covid19. And the drawing out of the pandemic may not mean much in terms of saving Covid19 patients, because there is no therapy or vaccine. See people like you, who support social distancing, have not thought this trough. Also you have no solid data that shows that social distancing works, whatsoever.

 

Mentioning HIV is a nice try, but it works against your core argument. If you will recall no vaccine has ever been found against HIV after all these years. Even with the swine flu a vaccine only works in 50% of cases. Despite many flu vaccines we still have the flu. So a vaccine for Covid19, we will have to see.

 

The reason why your HIV objection is invalid is that the HIV virus is literally acting as a shapeshifter in evading the host immune system. Covid19 is nothing like that. Neither were most other viruses we know. HIV is a completely different disease to Covid19. To compare the two merely shows your ignorance, you obviously lack the most basic medical knowledge. Each virus has its own story in terms of evolution and its interactions with humans.

 

With Covid19 it would appear that its very fast transmission by stealth will establish herd immunity long before a vaccine arrives. When that happens ignorant social distancing fanatics will of course claim that 'look social distancing worked', when it was of course herd immunity. You of course have no hard data whatsoever that social distancing works to defeat a coronavirus. None whatsoever. Social distancing is certainly not the only way that control of Covid19 works, in fact there is no evidence whatsoever that social distancing works with Covid19. Provide it if you have it, geriatrickid. You can't, because there is none.

 

The way that Covid19 will be controlled is by herd immunity, ie so many people being infected that the virus can not spread anymore. Not by any government efforts. I note Boris Johnson and Neil Ferguson, the two biggest fans of social distancing are now in bed nursing a Covid19 infection. The good news, they are contributing to herd immunity. We will all be fine in terms of Covid 19. The catastrophic economic costs these lockdowns cause is an effect no immunity will repair. And people who defend social distancing are to blame for it, a policy for which no hard data that it works to control Covid19 exists whatsoever.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[FarFlungFalang]

3 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

There is only one way we can control this  scourge and that is through social distancing and isolation of the infected. This is the proven and demonstrable public health management strategy when we have no treatments and no vaccine.  it is also common sense. We need the time to develop a vaccine.  You want an instant solution and  that is not how  it works. We must be patient and follow the prescription.

Why are the 400,000 deaths each year from normal flu are not worthy of the same efforts to help?Are they not worthy of similar measures to help but are left to rely on herd immunity by the authorities including the many children that die?Is it less painful for those parents that watch their children die from flu because as you say this is not the flu?is it less distressing to die from the same complications as covid19 but because it's the flu they don't deserve the same attention or efforts to reduce that number of deaths?Why do we make the distinction between covid19 and the flu?Is it because covid19 may or may not kill more than the flu?Is it because the flu is old news so the distressing outcomes are not comparable?

[graexx]

15 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Because during the 60s the government embarked in high spending programs (Vietnam war, great society), which ultimately led Nixon to sever the tie between the dollar and gold in August 1971.

 

This was followed by a decade of high inflation, then by a massive recession in the early 80s.

 

You may be right in your many posts.

 

But, I find myself wondering: why do you spend so much time and energy writing dozens of posts on this blogsite? Are you aware that most of the readers here wouldn't have much idea on these topics - they mostly don't have the patience nor background to author expert or well-informed comments. You're on the wrong blogsite for that type of informed discussion. In the main this is more a light-hearted blogsite for mostly elderly retired expats who live, generally, in Asia, to have an emotionally-charged uninformed rant against inept governments. Aside from the useful topics which provide specific knowledge about specific countries e.g. how to perform a specific plumbing task in Thailand, or a particular visa-application procedure.

[tlock]

23 minutes ago, graexx said:

You may be right in your many posts.

 

But, I find myself wondering: why do you spend so much time and energy writing dozens of posts on this blogsite? Are you aware that most of the readers here wouldn't have much idea on these topics - they mostly don't have the patience nor background to author expert or well-informed comments. You're on the wrong blogsite for that type of informed discussion. In the main this is more a light-hearted blogsite for mostly elderly retired expats who live, generally, in Asia, to have an emotionally-charged uninformed rant against inept governments. Aside from the useful topics which provide specific knowledge about specific countries e.g. how to perform a specific plumbing task in Thailand, or a particular visa-application procedure.

I appreciate his posts and put all the <deleted> takers on ignore.

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

The reason why 'social distancing' was adopted was a model by Imperial College. It said that 40 million people could die. It will comfort you to know, I'm sure, that one of the main authors of that model, Neil Ferguson has now retracted his apocalyptic prediction.

 

He now quietly revised his prediction of dead in the UK downward to 20,000.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

 

The New Scientist reports Ferguson did acknowledge it was impractical to keep the country in an isolated lockdown for 12 to 18 months waiting for a vaccine , especially because of the impact on the economy. “We’ll be paying for this year for decades to come,” he said.

 

So you can relax the hysteria a bit, I'm not sending millions to Siberia like Stalin. But you may be sending milions to the poor house with your blind faith in social distancing. A policy for which no solid data or credible scientific evidence exists that it would even work.

 

In contrast, with immunity there is ample evidence to show it works. Witness Sir Patrick Vallance who could base his entire strategy on herd immunity, or Prof Cohen who says that immunity is a reasonable assumption, so I'm afraid that is the best option we have. Since, as you should know, social distancing is not a solution and there is no data whatsoever to support that it works.

 

It is true of course that herd immunity is used in vaccination models, but we are here in a position where the very fast and unusually stealthy transmission of Covid19 effectively does the same as vaccination would achieve. So many people will have it that transmission will stop. This will happen faster than the vaccine most likely.

 

Your argument that because we have to change vaccines for influenza each year and therefore we cannot rely on immunity is plain false. This virus, Covid19 is a coronavirus. It is not an influenza virus. You are obviously unaware that coronaviruses mutate far less than influenza viruses. So far very few mutations have been found, and all were inconsequential.

 

What's more, mutations are not always to our disadvantage. The SARS virus lost a part of its genome in a mutation that was related to transmission and it worked in our favour. Now, it may well happen that eventually, down the line a mutation of Covid19 could happen, and it probably will, so that acquired immunity will be impaired. However, that does not happen in a month, or 6 months, it would take far longer in the case of Covid19, because it does not mutate a lot, compared to influenza viruses.

 

There are of course viral diseaes that have been completely eradicated, like smallpox. No mutation has revived smallpox. Ever.

 

You think that social distancing will save lives because it will allow more beds in hospitals. The exact opposite could be true, it could cost lives. Because rather than a short sharp Covid19 shock, the hospitals would be faced with a drawn out focus on Covid 19 when beds would be requisitioned, operations cancelled, and care impaired for the 80% of patients who have a critical condition other than Covid19. And the drawing out of the pandemic may not mean much in terms of saving Covid19 patients, because there is no therapy or vaccine. See people like you, who support social distancing, have not thought this trough. Also you have no solid data that shows that social distancing works, whatsoever.

 

Mentioning HIV is a nice try, but it works against your core argument. If you will recall no vaccine has ever been found against HIV after all these years. Even with the swine flu a vaccine only works in 50% of cases. Despite many flu vaccines we still have the flu. So a vaccine for Covid19, we will have to see.

 

The reason why your HIV objection is invalid is that the HIV virus is literally acting as a shapeshifter in evading the host immune system. Covid19 is nothing like that. Neither were most other viruses we know. HIV is a completely different disease to Covid19. To compare the two merely shows your ignorance, you obviously lack the most basic medical knowledge. Each virus has its own story in terms of evolution and its interactions with humans.

 

With Covid19 it would appear that its very fast transmission by stealth will establish herd immunity long before a vaccine arrives. When that happens ignorant social distancing fanatics will of course claim that 'look social distancing worked', when it was of course herd immunity. You of course have no hard data whatsoever that social distancing works to defeat a coronavirus. None whatsoever. Social distancing is certainly not the only way that control of Covid19 works, in fact there is no evidence whatsoever that social distancing works with Covid19. Provide it if you have it, geriatrickid. You can't, because there is none.

 

The way that Covid19 will be controlled is by herd immunity, ie so many people being infected that the virus can not spread anymore. Not by any government efforts. I note Boris Johnson and Neil Ferguson, the two biggest fans of social distancing are now in bed nursing a Covid19 infection. The good news, they are contributing to herd immunity. We will all be fine in terms of Covid 19. The catastrophic economic costs these lockdowns cause is an effect no immunity will repair. And people who defend social distancing are to blame for it, a policy for which no hard data that it works to control Covid19 exists whatsoever.

 

 

 

 

 

We all have to wait a few more weeks for that data. 

[tlock]

8 minutes ago, nauseus said:

We all have to wait a few more weeks for that data. 

Will we ever get accurate data?  Is there a control group, a country that is continuing not to practice social distancing?  At the end of all this, both camps will say "I told you so".  The death toll will be orders of magnitude less than the fear mongers projections, and the lockdown crowd will claim victory: "See, it would have been much worse if we hadn't destroyed the world economy".  Likewise the anti-lockdown crowd will say "See, it wasn't nearly as bad as the projections".  

 

We'll all be back to square one, conservatives vs. liberals, and nothing will have been learned ????

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by tlock
spelling

[Brunolem]

32 minutes ago, graexx said:

You may be right in your many posts.

 

But, I find myself wondering: why do you spend so much time and energy writing dozens of posts on this blogsite?  

Compared to many other members, I am not such a prolific writer.

 

Anyway, in the particular case of the coronavirus, I feel the need to share my concerns, and my concerns are not about the virus itself, but about the aftermath of the pandemic.

 

The future looks very bleak, if not downright frightening, and I spend a lot of time reading and trying to determine the best strategy to face it.

[Logosone]

29 minutes ago, nauseus said:

We all have to wait a few more weeks for that data. 

I doubt we will ever get it, nauseus.

 

In China after the fog had cleared and they are now able to say they controlled the virus Chines academics have tried to determine which of the measures succeeded, but they have been unable to do so in a clear and iron-clad way.

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

 

It's of course extremely difficult to apportion the exact effect to a particular measure, when so many are thrown at the virus simultaneously.

 

But it's quite something that these academics AFTER the fact, when data is available, concede that they can not say for sure which measure was the key measure and contained transmission. Compare this with the Imperial College guys who believed they could before data was even available. Yes, now the author has revised his apocalypse prediction way down to 20,000 dead in the UK, but the damage of the "40 million may die" headline has already been done. The economic melt down could be worse than Covid19.

[Brunolem]

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

The economic melt down could be worse than Covid19.

Not "could" but "will" be worse.

 

I can already see the state of emergency extended, for reason of economic catastrophe (that no one could have seen coming)...

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, tlock said:

Will we ever get accurate data?  Is there a control group, a country that is continuing not to practice social distancing?  At the end of all this, both camps will say "I told you so".  The death toll will be orders of magnitude less than the fear mongers projections, and the lockdown crowd will claim victory: "See, it would have been much worse if we hadn't destroyed the world economy".  Likewise the anti-lockdown crowd will say "See, it wasn't nearly as bad as the projections".  

 

We'll all be back to square one, conservatives vs. liberals, and nothing will have been learned ????

 

The data will be what it is. I did not say that it will be accurate but when compared to other countries in the region it may be a guide to the success of these measures. You are right: if the reports from posters from around the country are true about groups of people not respecting these instructions and advisories, then it will all be open to argument again in a coupe of weeks. But if the virus is obviously out of control by then, there may be more severe curfews and restrictions and that's when the arguments will really start. 

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

I doubt we will ever get it, nauseus.

 

In China after the fog had cleared and they are now able to say they controlled the virus Chines academics have tried to determine which of the measures succeeded, but they have been unable to do so in a clear and iron-clad way.

 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218

 

It's of course extremely difficult to apportion the exact effect to a particular measure, when so many are thrown at the virus simultaneously.

 

But it's quite something that these academics AFTER the fact, when data is available, concede that they can not say for sure which measure was the key measure and contained transmission. Compare this with the Imperial College guys who believed they could before data was even available. Yes, now the author has revised his apocalypse prediction way down to 20,000 dead in the UK, but the damage of the "40 million may die" headline has already been done. The economic melt down could be worse than Covid19.

I doubt we will get meaningful data in Thailand. But if these measures do show a slowdown of infection rates (and they can probably demonstrate that by comparing the curves to those of neighbouring nations), then it is not important to identify which of these is the most efficient now, because they probably all contribute. 

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I doubt we will get meaningful data in Thailand. But if these measures do show a slowdown of infection rates (and they can probably demonstrate that by comparing the curves to those of neighbouring nations), then it is not important to identify which of these is the most efficient now, because they probably all contribute. 

I agree, we probably won't even see widespread testing in Thailand. 

 

You're right that all measures probably contributed a little to the containment in China, but it would have been helpful to confirm if it was indeed testing and isolating the infected that was the most important measure.

 

Then with the next outbreak governments could focus on that and forego extreme social isolation measures that including isolating the healthy from the healhty. That would also avoid a gigantic economic issue next time around, or at least reduce its size.

 

After all South Korea does intensive tracking, testing and isolating of infected people, but does not have extreme social lockdown measures in place.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[nauseus]

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I agree, we probably won't even see widespread testing in Thailand. 

 

You're right that all measures probably contributed a little to the containment in China, but it would have been helpful to confirm if it was indeed testing and isolating the infected that was the most important measure.

 

Then with the next outbreak governments could focus on that and forego extreme social isolation measures that including isolating the healthy from the healhty. That would also avoid a gigantic economic issue next time around, or at least reduce its size.

 

After all South Korea does intensive tracking, testing and isolating of infected people, but does not have extreme social lockdown measures in place.

The S. Koreans had to shut down places like Daegu but have seemed to be able to test far more broadly and quickly than anywhere else. I can't find out how they had so many tests kits available that fast.  

Edited March 28, 2020 by nauseus

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I can't find out how they had so many tests kits available that fast.  

That's a mystery.

These test kits seem to pop out from nowhere.

One day, there are none, and the next day there are millions.

Who manufacture them?

Are they the same everywhere in the world (probably not)?

I just read that in the US they now have plenty and that people can be tested in 15 minutes on a Walmart parking lot.

But being tested negative today doesn't mean anything for tomorrow or next week...it just provide a short term good feeling...

 

[scubascuba3]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

That's a mystery.

These test kits seem to pop out from nowhere.

One day, there are none, and the next day there are millions.

Who manufacture them?

Are they the same everywhere in the world (probably not)?

I just read that in the US they now have plenty and that people can be tested in 15 minutes on a Walmart parking lot.

But being tested negative today doesn't mean anything for tomorrow or next week...it just provide a short term good feeling...

 

WHO were going to provide millions of test kits so maybe that's where they came from

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

That's a mystery.

These test kits seem to pop out from nowhere.

One day, there are none, and the next day there are millions.

Who manufacture them?

Are they the same everywhere in the world (probably not)?

I just read that in the US they now have plenty and that people can be tested in 15 minutes on a Walmart parking lot.

But being tested negative today doesn't mean anything for tomorrow or next week...it just provide a short term good feeling...

 

Well if long-term is not available then I'd take the short-term....for now.

[geriatrickid]

8 hours ago, tlock said:

Will we ever get accurate data?  Is there a control group, a country that is continuing not to practice social distancing?  At the end of all this, both camps will say "I told you so".  The death toll will be orders of magnitude less than the fear mongers projections, and the lockdown crowd will claim victory: "See, it would have been much worse if we hadn't destroyed the world economy".  Likewise the anti-lockdown crowd will say "See, it wasn't nearly as bad as the projections".  

 

We'll all be back to square one, conservatives vs. liberals, and nothing will have been learned ????

 

Yes there is data. Interesting data too.

Italy and Spain were late with social distancing. Italy had a "super injection" of infection because it was fashion week and had many Chinese suppliers and buyers in Milan and the region.

Austria was apex of infection for European travelers and is the source of much of the EU's young and family spread because of the high number who had  gone for ski holidays.

 

In respect to social distance we see an additional five distinct examples;

1. UK - Government refused to social distance until the surge in  hospital admissions and subsequent modeling showed that the NHS would collapse.

2. Netherlands  - Like UK hesitated, until its results showed  the same scenario as UK

3. Canada- One of the highest injections of travelers 4 million+ since january that defeated all modest measures, combined with a refusal of many Canadians to behave responsibly with self isolation. It resulted in a massive surge. Gradually over a few days provinces imposed isolation, then states of emergencies, then discouraged travel within regions and is now further isolating some areas. It is showing some initial success, but the measures have only been initiated  over the past 5-8 days, so another 2 weeks are needed.

4. USA - No social distancing in some regions such as Louisiana which is  now showing  an infection surge

5. Thailand - refusal to protect the population in early stage when it could have been controlled. We are now seeing the pandemic progress. Social distancing  has not been effectively implemented.

 

This isn't conservative vs. liberal, because the proponents of  social distancing are a mix of these groups. Those who are opposed to a plan of social distancing are typically not educated in  public health or in infectious disease management. Even the dissenting opinions in public health accept the practice of social distancing, but  have a different approach in regions that do not have similar characteristics to other regions. However, they always preface their  positions by  saying that the region with less social distancing measures must be cut off from the infected regions and those who are infected must be identified and isolated. None of the proponents of social distancing reject this in itself. rather they point out that it would be impossible to put into practice.

 

 

[Logosone]

7 hours ago, nauseus said:

The S. Koreans had to shut down places like Daegu but have seemed to be able to test far more broadly and quickly than anywhere else. I can't find out how they had so many tests kits available that fast.  

It's very simple, like the Germans the South Koreans produced them as soon as the Chinese published the genomic data of the virus.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/south-korea-coronavirus-lessons-quick-easy-tests-monitoring-200319011438619.html

 

Manufacturing. It's important.????

[Logosone]

7 hours ago, Brunolem said:

That's a mystery.

These test kits seem to pop out from nowhere.

One day, there are none, and the next day there are millions.

Who manufacture them?

Are they the same everywhere in the world (probably not)?

I just read that in the US they now have plenty and that people can be tested in 15 minutes on a Walmart parking lot.

But being tested negative today doesn't mean anything for tomorrow or next week...it just provide a short term good feeling...

 

Yes, every country is doing its own version, even Thailand is doing the quick anti-body tests that cost 500 baht, but production is tiny and slow. What's more they seem to be very inaccurate, this is the Chinese ones. I think China gave the IP to a Thai company.

 

The Germans still test the old fashioned way, nasal throat swab and lab. Enough labs.

 

The Koreans did their own tests kits. It is small specialised biotech companies that make them. And governments. 

 

In the US the CDC bungled their test production, poor designed and inaccurate. They made the mistake of refusing help from private business, because they wanted to ensure super high standards. This led to a delay in a few weeks of the US actually doing any testing. Which was crucial. 

 

I was also struck by the fact that testing means nothing. It's like a VD test, you'd have to renew it all the time.

[geriatrickid]

16 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And of course YOU are an expert.

 

Your references if you don't mind?

 

How many vaccines against other strands of coronaviruses do actually exist?

 

The hospitals are clogged with patients because they were already full with people suffering from other deadly diseases.

 

Give me a choice between cancer and coronavirus, and I will gladly take my chances with the virus...

 

I never claimed to be an expert, but I believe that my education, and ongoing life science related employment  give me a base upon which to read and interpret information.  It is my job.    I do not make false claims, nor do I promote false information. Nor do I use this forum as a means of therapy to cope with a catastrophic event.  Nothing special in that regard as anyone with common sense  doesn't grab onto  fringe claims and tout them as panacea.

 

There are  multiple corona virus vaccines available.

Surprised?

Those of us with a background in the health sciences are aware of the vaccines. You obviously are not.

 

The Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization-International Vaccine Centre (VIDO-InterVac) at the University of Saskatchewan (USask) developed two vaccines for animal use as the corona virus is found in cattle and pigs.  Dog owners have given their dog the canine coronavirus vaccine for years.

 

So yes indeed it is possible to  create a vaccine. There had been progress after the SARS crisis, but as soon as the crisis ended, all significant government and private sector funding stopped. I expect people like you would have objected to the funding needed.  Had it continued, we most likely would not have the crisis we have now. Saudi Arabia has been funding the University of Saskatchewan MERS  vaccine initiative and it is  the reason why USask is so far ahead of the rest of the world. It  hopes to have initial results available by the end of April. Maybe it will work, and maybe it won't, but vaccines take time and the  social distancing strategy that you so arrogantly dismiss is intended to give us time to get there.

 

You are again wrong in respect to the hospitals. As soon as the crisis started most hospitals in hot zones enacted their crisis surge strategies. Elective surgeries were cancelled, all non critical cases were  moved out and all general activities were suspended.  Under the surge strategy, all hospitals  add beds. This is done by converting free spaces such as meeting rooms, dining areas, lobbies and lounges. It involves taking space from other departments.  New York state has about 53,000 hospital beds under the surge. The Covid19 apex is modeled to require 140,000 beds. This is why  additional facilities are being rushed. Canadian ERs have seen their general use drop to 60-75% from  the common 100-150% peaks. This was done to free up space. Canadians have been  doing their part not to bother the ERs with minor ailments. Also everyone knows that the ERs in hot zones are filled with Covid 19 cases now.  Your claim that hospitals are clogged with patients because of other deadly diseases is wrong. If they are full now, as is the case in Spain, France, italy and parts of the USA, it is because of Covid 19.

 

Good for you and your desire for Covid 19.  I would not wish the illness on anyone. Nor does there need to be a choice if we support common sense and the social distancing initiatives.

 

 

[geriatrickid]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

I was also struck by the fact that testing means nothing. It's like a VD test, you'd have to renew it all the time.

This demonstrates zero public health knowledge.

We have not used the term VD since the late 1970's. In the 1980's the term transitioned to STD and over the past 20 years it has transitioned to STI to reflect the fact that an infection does not necessarily result in a disease.

 

It is similar to your misunderstanding of the concept of "herd immunity" and your ongoing attempt to apply the concept to inappropriate  scenarios. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by geriatrickid

[Brunolem]

5 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

 

Good for you and your desire for Covid 19.  I would not wish the illness on anyone. Nor does there need to be a choice if we support common sense and the social distancing initiatives.

 

 

Faced with the choice between cancer and coronavirus, I would chose the virus immediately...what about you?

 

Believe it or not, cancer cases are still popping around the world, and many of those are consequences of our rapidly degrading environment, about which no state of emergency has been declared.

 

Finally, how many HUMAN vaccines against corona viruses? (I read that there are none, and that only 20 human vaccines altogether exist against the 200 or so viruses that attack us...please correct if this is wrong).

 

 

[Logosone]

11 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

 

I do not make false claims, nor do I promote false information.

 

 

You have made a large number of very false claims actually.

 

You have claimed in post 155 above that;

 

"Yes, we can see short term immunity with some contagious viral infections. However, it is quickly defeated when a variant strain appears."

 

This an obviously false claim. First of all with some viral diseases they have completely disappeared and we have not short term but long term immunity. For example smallpox has been gone for a long time. There has never been a "variant strain" which defeated our immunity.

 

In fact no viral infection is generally "quickly defeated", before genomic variation appears which defeats immunity a very large number of inconsequential mutations have to appear. In fact some of those mutations are strongly in our favour and favour immunity, see SARS. It lost a part of its genome in a mutation which affected transmission.

 

Nobody knows if immunity does occur with Covid 19, if and when it will be defeated, if ever. It certainly would not be "quickly" because the coronaviruses do not mutate as much as influenza viruses. So far few mutations have been found and they were all inconsequential.

 

Your claim " If we had long term "herd immunity" to viral infections we wouldn't have a need for an influenza vaccine each year would we?" is also false. We do have immunity from some viral infection, such as smallpox and we do not need a new small pox vaccination every year. Do we?

 

You obviously just assume that every virus is the same as the influenza virus, and mutates the same number of times, which is quite wrong. Coronaviruses have been shown to mutate far less.

 

One of your particularly silly and false claims was "If we could develop herd immunity to deadly viral infections,  HIV would not be the  ongoing curse that it is."

 

This claim in particular shows that you have close to ZERO expertise in viral infections because everybody knows that the HIV virus is not the same as coronavirus. The HIV virus is a stealth virus, which makes it so hard for the immunity system to breakdown, and indeed is the reason why vaccines and immunity are so elusive. This is absolutely not the case with Covid19.

 

To compare herd immunity for Covid19 with herd immunity for HIV, is frankly laughable and shows your supposed expertise is virtually non-existent.

 

You've made many more false claims, but I'll leave it here, because I don't want to embarass you too much.