Thailand announces another fall in new COVID-19 cases

[Eibot]

2 minutes ago, Lodestone said:

 

CoViD-19 deaths are a major worldwide news story, and just as much so in Thailand with wide discussion on social media. And yet you posit a death toll more than 100 times higher than reported, and say it is being kept quiet through some total 100% airtight conspiracy. Do you have any evidence such as credible news reports and videos of hospitals such as the ones from say Italy and the U.S. reflecting your vastly greater numbers? Any reports of much greater need for ventilators or other hospital equipment?

There is no secret/conspiracy that the deaths in Europe and the US have been massively under-counted (20/30%) due to not counting people in care homes and older people. 

 

I believe that Covid-19 has been slowly spreading in Thailand since January and quite a few people older people have contracted it, and have past away from it. I also believe the actual numbers of people having the virus is much higher. We have evidence that 50% of people re asymptomatic and that we are working with a death rate ranging from 0.3% to 0.9%. Because the climate, I believe the spread has been linear, thus we have seen a slow influx of people with fever like symptoms, but not anything noticeable. 

 

5000 older people dying over a period of 3 months is not a lot. Viral phenomena has also slowly increased over the months. Again, nothing to worry about because the spread is linear. 

 

No conspiracy, just common sense. 

[smedly]

4 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

To prolong life. Humans are afraid to die. 

they are obligated to do so as doctors 

[Eibot]

4 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

To prolong life. Humans are afraid to die. 

Of yes, they have a shortage of ventilators and in Italy were not putting people under 70 on ventilators, because they rather prolonged life of younger people. 

 

Did you know that almost 50% of people on ICU are under 60 years old? 

 

Did you also know that less than 10% of people under 60 years in the ICU die? 

 

Of course ventilators work. That's why all countries are crying for them. 

[Lodestone]

4 minutes ago, Eibot said:

5000 older people dying over a period of 3 months is not a lot. Viral phenomena has also slowly increased over the months. Again, nothing to worry about because the spread is linear. 

 

No conspiracy, just common sense. 

 

Link?

[SantiSuk]

2 hours ago, Mavideol said:

sure and China only had 3,339 deaths and the Pope is catholic

More compelling evidence-backed arguments from the school of conspiracy theories.

 

I'm sick of repeating without any good answer forthcoming:

How have the government persuaded the entire medical profession of Thailand to conspire with them to secrete the massive number of deaths that the conspiracy theorists believe Thailand simply must have - because other countries (in the Northern Hemisphere - geddit?) have massive numbers of deaths?

 

It's the low death rate which has simply refused to grow exponentially that is the best evidence that we are not in the boat of the UK/France/Italy/Spain/US. I agree thatt the number of cases is likely understated. That just further emphasises the apparently very low death rate here, but it does also caution not to take the foot of the gas on restrictions.

[FarFlungFalang]

24 minutes ago, Eibot said:

Undoubtedly. Italian and Spanish people are known to be outside their homes most of the times. Even in the colder periods. However, it could ofcourse be a factor.

Even during harsh lockdowns?

[tropo]

19 minutes ago, Eibot said:

They actually do. The prime temperature it between 5 degrees and 15. Anything below or above slows the virus down. Some research has shown at least. This has not been peer reviewed so shouldn't be taken as fact. However, the northern countries in the world do support this (Canada, Alaska, Russie etc)

Do you have a link to the research?

 

Moscow is going over 5C at times during the day, and a large part of Russia, the south, has higher temperatures. If your theory is correct, the numbers in Russia should soon skyrocket. 

[smedly]

12 minutes ago, Eibot said:

Of yes, they have a shortage of ventilators and in Italy were not putting people under 70 on ventilators, because they rather prolonged life of younger people. 

 

Did you know that almost 50% of people on ICU are under 60 years old? 

 

Did you also know that less than 10% of people under 60 years in the ICU die? 

 

Of course ventilators work. That's why all countries are crying for them. 

not everyone in ICU is on a ventilator - a prime example The Prime Minister of the UK, if he had reached the ventilator stage his prognosis was not at all good - like I said next to zero

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ventilators-some-doctors-try-reduce-use-new-york-death-rate-2020-4

Edited April 12, 2020 by smedly

[Eibot]

6 minutes ago, Lodestone said:

 

Link?

I cannot find the link anymore from the DDC. They used to have a separate one for Viral phenomena. In previous graphs, you could see it going up qite steeply. Again, not at an alarming level (like in Europe or US), but just going up. 

 

My estimation (opinion) is that Covid-19 has infected over 100K people in Thailand (maybe even more). However, it believe it to be in the millions in Italy, UK and Spain etc. 

 

Once this is all over, we will find out that the death rate is going to be significantly lower than we thought. 

[Chazar]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

people in Thailand to not let their guard down

What guard, virtually no change by me,no social distancing at  all

[ChipButty]

50 minutes ago, jimmjam said:

I was watching channel 8 news today and they said that som tam helps fight the virus. No lie. 

You should try my wife's chili paste it's like rocket fuel

[Eibot]

5 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Even during harsh lockdowns?

No probaly not during the lockdowns no....

[Eibot]

4 minutes ago, smedly said:

not everyone in ICU is on a ventilator - a prime example The Prime Minister of the UK, if he had reached the ventilator stage his prognosis was not at all good - like I said next to zero

No not everyone is indeed, but the majority is. You end up on the ICU because of viral phenomena (low oxygen levels). I don't think you can take Boris Johnson's care, as the average care somebody in the UK receives. The is the Prime Minister...

[smedly]

3 minutes ago, Eibot said:

Once this is all over, we will find out that the death rate is going to be significantly lower than we thought. 

your expertise is unrivalled

 

in your own little world 

[Eibot]

6 minutes ago, tropo said:

Do you have a link to the research?

 

Moscow is going over 5C at times during the day, and a large part of Russia, the south, has higher temperatures. If your theory is correct, the numbers in Russia should soon skyrocket. 

https://gvn.org/enhanced-model-for-monitoring-zones-of-increased-risk-of-covid-19-spread/

 

I think it will go higher there yes. 

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, madmitch said:

Are other countries looking at Thailand's figures and wondering how the figures are so low?

 

If you think about it, Thailand should be an absolute hotbed for the dissemination of the virus:

 

Flights from Wuhan continuing until Wuhan itself closed its airport;

Flights from overseas, including China, still arriving until very recently;

A population that is generally loathe to observe rules and regulations;

Minimal social distancing;

People living several to a household, not to forget the corrugated iron villages occupied by migrant workers;

Public hospitals where you expect to come out with a disease, even if you enter in perfect health;

An early lack of decisiveness from the Government and totally confusing messages from  the health ministry (and a useless health minister who has all but disappeared from sight);

Completely different provincial approaches whereby some still have shopping malls open and others are in full lockdown.

 

I could probably go on.

 

So why is this virus just not infecting many people here? Heat and humidity? Face masks? Natural immunity? Lack of testing and analysis of tests?

 

Other southeast Asian countries are also not suffering like in Europe and America.

 

It just seems odd.

 

 

Very strange indeed.

God news for Thailand. The rate of infections in the Country should just about be near Zero when China declares the Virus is fully under control, and is fully functioning again.

 

[Eibot]

1 minute ago, smedly said:

your expertise is unrivalled

 

in your own little world 

A sentence above that I clearly put that it's my opinion. You don't have to agree with it. 

 

Been in quarantine too long? Getting bored of the missus?  What's your problem.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

define best numbers - does it include actual testing ?  - best numbers right ?

 

you can't produce confirmed infection data if you are not testing - you do understand that right ?

 

So what you think - still the best numbers ? 

I think he's agreeing with your argumentHe says "what did Thailand do to have some of the best numbers in the world".Also "Besides waiting until after Chinese New Year to do anything so they would not lose those baht. Believe government numbers here at your own peril" I don't think he believes Thailand"s numbers but I might be wrong.

[offset]

4 minutes ago, Eibot said:

https://gvn.org/enhanced-model-for-monitoring-zones-of-increased-risk-of-covid-19-spread/

 

I think it will go higher there yes. 

They had a 22% death increase yesterday so I think you might be correct

Edited April 12, 2020 by offset

[Sheryl]

3 hours ago, madmitch said:

Are other countries looking at Thailand's figures and wondering how the figures are so low?

 

If you think about it, Thailand should be an absolute hotbed for the dissemination of the virus:

 

Flights from Wuhan continuing until Wuhan itself closed its airport;

Flights from overseas, including China, still arriving until very recently;

A population that is generally loathe to observe rules and regulations;

Minimal social distancing;

People living several to a household, not to forget the corrugated iron villages occupied by migrant workers;

Public hospitals where you expect to come out with a disease, even if you enter in perfect health;

An early lack of decisiveness from the Government and totally confusing messages from  the health ministry (and a useless health minister who has all but disappeared from sight);

Completely different provincial approaches whereby some still have shopping malls open and others are in full lockdown.

 

I could probably go on.

 

So why is this virus just not infecting many people here? Heat and humidity? Face masks? Natural immunity? Lack of testing and analysis of tests?

 

Other southeast Asian countries are also not suffering like in Europe and America.

 

It just seems odd.

 

 

It is indeed being studied and it is not just Thailand that has far fewer infections than expected.

 

One theory being examined is possible protective effect of BCG vaccination. Countries with unusually low incidence tend to be ones where BCG is given routinely. 

 

The heat, sunlight and relatively low population density are also factors.

 

 

[White Christmas13]

19 minutes ago, tropo said:

Do you have a link to the research?

 

Moscow is going over 5C at times during the day, and a large part of Russia, the south, has higher temperatures. If your theory is correct, the numbers in Russia should soon skyrocket. 

Yes and how come in Australias north where it is stinking hot we have increased

infections.

[Matzzon]

3 hours ago, jonclark said:

Amazing numbers.. Maybe we can all go back to work. 33 sick people and the country grinds to a halt. The medicine seems more dangerous than the disease based in these numbers. However we must consider the 32'000 people under investigation. Those who have symptoms but have not been tested (one assumes) . Hmmm?? 

 

Does anyone know if PUI are tested for Covid?? 

No, you do not read correct. 33 today! In reality it´s still over 1 300 that are hospitalized. Maybe that will make you understand better.

However, it seems like you and some others refuses to be pleased. I say: Good Work Thailand! Keep it up. You deserve it! I love you!

[tropo]

3 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

Yes and how come in Australias north where it is stinking hot we have increased

infections.

Australia could provide some very useful information on the effect of climate as they have cold weather and tropical weather areas over the next 6 months.

 

Looking at today's numbers, I see only 27 confirmed cases in NT, but of course the population there is small. We can't draw any conclusions for Queensland or WA as they span from cooler, more temperate climates in the south to tropical climates in the north of those states. 

 

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

[Enoon]

10 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

No, you do not read correct. 33 today! In reality it´s still over 1 300 that are hospitalized. Maybe that will make you understand better.

However, it seems like you and some others refuses to be pleased. I say: Good Work Thailand! Keep it up. You deserve it! I love you!

 

Careful, those trousers were clean on today.

 

 

#

[dabhand]

1 minute ago, tropo said:

Australia could provide some very useful information on the effect of climate as they have cold weather and tropical weather areas over the next 6 months.

 

Looking at today's numbers, I see only 27 confirmed cases in NT, but of course the population there is small. We can't draw any conclusions for Queensland or WA as they span from cooler, more temperate climates in the south to tropical climates in the north of those states. 

 

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

Good link.

 

It would also appear that the majority of that small number of confirmed NT cases were 'overseas acquired'.

[smedly]

24 minutes ago, Eibot said:

but the majority is. You end up on the ICU because of viral phenomena (low oxygen levels). I don't think you can take Boris Johnson's care, as the average care somebody in the UK receives. The is the Prime Minister...

all of this is your "expert" opinion - you are entitled to your opinion 

 

you are posting the above as fact when it is not

 

People enter ICU for various reasons - a ventilator is the last of many stages - not all who go to ICU have pneumonia but may require additional oxygen to enrich their intake due to limited lung functionality - fact

 

by all means post an opinion but I can tell you now - you are not the expert you think you are, I have an opinion on that but I will keep it to myself

[Almer]

3 hours ago, steven100 said:

don't worry, all the TVF farang of experts say everything is bad about Thailand, doesn't matter what the news they're just a bunch of whingers.  lol

I agree, in the Uk just about everybody knows somebody who knows somebody who is infected, how many on this forum knows somebody who knows somebody, stop the thai bashing please we are all in this together, is it little wonder thai government people have a pop at foreigners when they read this constant barrage of abuse against there person there position and there government, give it a rest chaps please.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Almer
Spelling

[Matzzon]

11 minutes ago, Enoon said:

 

Careful, those trousers were clean on today.

 

 

#

Good job! Another childish comment.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

I put about as much faith in those numbers as I do in China saying Covid started in the USA.

Zilch! 

I don't care, but with these numbers maybe at the end of the month the people who were forced to close small shops can start to get back to work and earn some money.

Not sure about opening up of bars and clubs, but places like hair salons etc should be given a break.

Practicing social distancing, cleanliness whatever it takes.

[rbkk]

Any reports from members in the villages about hearing the three rockets/firecrackers that usually announces that somebody has passed away. Any increase in frequency?