An Exchange Rate Prediction

[Maestro]

A reminder just popped up on my electronic agenda. A year ago, in this post I predicted that today, on 12 April 2007, you would be getting 20% more for the pound sterling than on 12 April 2006, 10% more for the US dollar, and I am man enough to post now that I was wrong.

GBP (Bangkok Bank buying rate for TT)

12 April 2006: 66.525

12 April 2007: 68.750

Change: +3.3%

USD

12 April 2006: 38.07

12 April 2007: 34.89

Change: -8.4%

The economic crash I expected in Thailand did not happen, and I now doubt whether it will even happen within the next 12 months. Does anybody care to make a prediction what the rates for GBP and USD will be on 12 April 2008?

--

Maestro

[sonicdragon]

It's nice to see someone admitting their "mistake" (although I wouldn't really call it that).

I only wish that the pundits on CNBC and bloomberg would be grilled a little more by the presenters into admitting theirs. Perhaps that would put an end to the endless stream of "gurus" giving us their opinion on the outlook for everything from dollar-yen to the price of wheat. I find it remarkable that an academic discipline that claims scientific and mathematical rigour can consistently fail to produce a consensus on the reasons for many past economic events, let alone on predictions for future ones.

[Auntymarybrown]

It's nice to see someone admitting their "mistake" (although I wouldn't really call it that).

I only wish that the pundits on CNBC and bloomberg would be grilled a little more by the presenters into admitting theirs. Perhaps that would put an end to the endless stream of "gurus" giving us their opinion on the outlook for everything from dollar-yen to the price of wheat. I find it remarkable that an academic discipline that claims scientific and mathematical rigour can consistently fail to produce a consensus on the reasons for many past economic events, let alone on predictions for future ones.

That's their job ...and what they are paid for.....and that's popular television.

How boring these channels would be without the pundits !

My view anyway.

[ZZZ]

Have you noticed that these guys are really experts when it comes to saying that the dollar is up because of this whatever and the stock market is down because of that whatever BUT even if they knew both this and that the day before they never make that prediction!!!!

[PeaceBlondie]

I love it when the market has gone up, down or sideways and they ask why. One guy will say it's profit taking, another will say it's political uncertainties, another will say it's the govt.'s released figures or the expectations of what those figures will be. I liked the guy who answered, "Who knows? There are no reasons. Sometimes the market does weird, inexplicable things. Maybe it's explained by astrology."

Now, that guy might come to Thailand....or China...."Dr. Tarisa, why is the baht so incredibly strong?" "Well, it's because we had floods in central Thailand, and smoke in the north, and bombs in the south, and Thaksin's in Singapore again, and they're rioting in Africa, and Kansas needs rain..."

[sonicdragon]

It's nice to see someone admitting their "mistake" (although I wouldn't really call it that).

I only wish that the pundits on CNBC and bloomberg would be grilled a little more by the presenters into admitting theirs. Perhaps that would put an end to the endless stream of "gurus" giving us their opinion on the outlook for everything from dollar-yen to the price of wheat. I find it remarkable that an academic discipline that claims scientific and mathematical rigour can consistently fail to produce a consensus on the reasons for many past economic events, let alone on predictions for future ones.

That's their job ...and what they are paid for.....and that's popular television.

How boring these channels would be without the pundits !

My view anyway.

Yes you are right. I'm sorry. I just wish that some of these pundits would be grilled a little more on why they got it wrong. This would be interesting and at the same time entertaining.

[Gary A]

I'm pretty much a dividend hunter and usually pick my own. HOWEVER, the EXPERT Jim Cramer recommended a Canadian oil trust called Enterra Energy. He said it had a nice safe dividend. After I bought, the dividend went from 12 cents to 6 cents. I bought it at $8.50 and recently sold it at $5.40. So much for the experts.

[sonicdragon]

I'm pretty much a dividend hunter and usually pick my own. HOWEVER, the EXPERT Jim Cramer recommended a Canadian oil trust called Enterra Energy. He said it had a nice safe dividend. After I bought, the dividend went from 12 cents to 6 cents. I bought it at $8.50 and recently sold it at $5.40. So much for the experts.

I'll bet he didn't mention that on Kramer vs Kudlow or whatever his show is called these days ?

There will always be superstar pundits with a great track record. Just like there is always a winner in a coin-tossing knock-out contest. I believe the analogy is appropriate.

[expatgaz]

This time next year you wont even get 30 baht for a $$.100% nailed on factamundo.

[aussiestyle1983]

April 12, 2008

1 USD = 39 THB

1 GBP = 71 THB

1 AUD= 32 THB

Edited April 14, 2007 by aussiestyle1983

[BigSnake]

A reminder just popped up on my electronic agenda. A year ago, in this post I predicted that today, on 12 April 2007, you would be getting 20% more for the pound sterling than on 12 April 2006, 10% more for the US dollar, and I am man enough to post now that I was wrong.

GBP (Bangkok Bank buying rate for TT)

12 April 2006: 66.525

12 April 2007: 68.750

Change: +3.3%

USD

12 April 2006: 38.07

12 April 2007: 34.89

Change: -8.4%

The economic crash I expected in Thailand did not happen, and I now doubt whether it will even happen within the next 12 months. Does anybody care to make a prediction what the rates for GBP and USD will be on 12 April 2008?

--

Maestro

No Maestro, don't care to make a prediction, will say wish the heck you had been right on. Oh well win some lose some.

[Aussietraveller]

Aussiestyle1983,

I hope that you are right.

I earn in Australian Dollars, so the current rate hurts.

I would love to see a return to the days of 32 Baht/Aust. $

Bring it on......

[LivinLOS]

Sorry if this sounds like bagging on you.. But surely using the offshore rates that the real world uses for Thai and XXX currency pairs would be more realistic of the true situation.. A false onshore rate created by BoT intervention and only available incountry isnt the true picture IMO.

Today THB

GBP 64.5223

USD 32.5542

I have long said the dollar is heading to the toilet.. Looking over 1.35 EUR right now.. Heading dangerously low on the basket index.. If it crosses 80 beware...

My posts are all back there.. Short dollar.. Short US housing.. Short lenders.. Long gold.. Long Silver.. Long Uranium.. All in all its been a GREAT couple of years in investment terms !!

[thaihome]

.. A false onshore rate created by BoT intervention and only available incountry isnt the true picture IMO.

...

Where else do you need baht except onshore? Only people even buying in the very limited offshore market are people buying baht in order to avoid the 30% withholding when bringing other currencies in.

To my mind, the offshore reate is not the true picture.

TH

[reasonstobecheerful]

There will always be superstar pundits with a great track record. Just like there is always a winner in a coin-tossing knock-out contest. I believe the analogy is appropriate.

Very important fact you've noticed Sonic. There will always be someone who's been right and some funds who perform well.

The appropriate term is "survivorship bias" and it's extremely important and difficult indeed to be able to judge it's weight in a potential investment....a stats game really combined with judgement.

Wish I had it down pat.

.. A false onshore rate created by BoT intervention and only available incountry isnt the true picture IMO.

...

Where else do you need baht except onshore? Only people even buying in the very limited offshore market are people buying baht in order to avoid the 30% withholding when bringing other currencies in.

To my mind, the offshore reate is not the true picture.

TH

Couldn't agree more, and pleased to see if I multiply the GBP at 1.9903 by the $ baht rate it comes to 69.4 tonight.

If anyone can tell me who's buying baht to keep it up please do so. I can see a few bucks coming in for the decent dividend rates on the markets here, but little else. Unless it's the political stability, the central banks fine management, or the marvellous personal incentive culture.

I suspect something else. I have a friend who bought and sold fairly large amounts of stock here for a broker. I knew he had it down when I overheard him being asked what he did if he wanted to sell a stock. "Buy", he said.

[LaoPo]

I think it's absolutely un-clear where the exchangerates will be in one year....

Pound touches 14-year dollar high April 16, 2007, 23:34 UK time

The pound has hit a 14-year high of $1.9938 against the dollar, with many experts believing it will rise above $2 in the next few days.

From:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6562071.stm

and:

Yen hits record low against euro Monday, 16 April 2007, 07:40 UK

The yen fell to a record low against the euro after Group of Seven finance ministers meeting in Washington failed to single out the currency's weakness.

From:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6558645.stm

Market Date - Currencies:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...ncy/default.stm

LaoPo

[LivinLOS]

.. A false onshore rate created by BoT intervention and only available incountry isnt the true picture IMO.

...

Where else do you need baht except onshore? Only people even buying in the very limited offshore market are people buying baht in order to avoid the 30% withholding when bringing other currencies in.

To my mind, the offshore reate is not the true picture.

TH

If you think the offshore (read the whole world except Thailand) is very limited and Thailands internal application (only for specific amounts less than 800k or specific exempted situations) is greater I would say your definitely looking at this incorrectly..

The nickel and dime stuff happens in the restricted onshore market.

[Luckydog]

I seem to remember a few years ago they gave one of these 'Pundits' a thousand pounds and they gave the same amount to an old lady who knew NOTHING about investing in shares.

Twelve months later she had made quits a bit more than the so called expert!

Look it stands to reason. If they knew SO much they would all be Multi Millionaires......

[OlRedEyes]

Anyone wanna predict how much fried rice will be in apr 08?

[Rinrada]

[

Pound touches 14-year dollar high April 16, 2007, 23:34 UK time

The pound has hit a 14-year high of $1.9938 against the dollar, with many experts believing it will rise above $2 in the next few days.

Been a long time coming..remember those days in 1993......

John...this is La Mont...wotcha want me to do with these Europeans.....summit about the ERM....double the interest rates ..yea...

John ...some guy called George Soros is on the Dog and Bone ...what does he want?........double interest rates again....yea that should do it........

John.....John....Joh.............Margaret...................

[billd766]

Sorry if this sounds like bagging on you.. But surely using the offshore rates that the real world uses for Thai and XXX currency pairs would be more realistic of the true situation.. A false onshore rate created by BoT intervention and only available incountry isnt the true picture IMO.

Today THB

GBP 64.5223

USD 32.5542

I have long said the dollar is heading to the toilet.. Looking over 1.35 EUR right now.. Heading dangerously low on the basket index.. If it crosses 80 beware...

My posts are all back there.. Short dollar.. Short US housing.. Short lenders.. Long gold.. Long Silver.. Long Uranium.. All in all its been a GREAT couple of years in investment terms !!

I drew 10,000 baht from Lloyds bank from my local Kasikorn bank ATM yesterday morning and according to my bank account today I got a rate of 67.3355 baht to £1 GBP sterling. It is about 2 baht per GBP better than a month ago.

It is not as much as I would wish but a lot better than it has been.

[LivinLOS]

Sorry if this sounds like bagging on you.. But surely using the offshore rates that the real world uses for Thai and XXX currency pairs would be more realistic of the true situation.. A false onshore rate created by BoT intervention and only available incountry isnt the true picture IMO.

Today THB

GBP 64.5223

USD 32.5542

I have long said the dollar is heading to the toilet.. Looking over 1.35 EUR right now.. Heading dangerously low on the basket index.. If it crosses 80 beware...

My posts are all back there.. Short dollar.. Short US housing.. Short lenders.. Long gold.. Long Silver.. Long Uranium.. All in all its been a GREAT couple of years in investment terms !!

I drew 10,000 baht from Lloyds bank from my local Kasikorn bank ATM yesterday morning and according to my bank account today I got a rate of 67.3355 baht to £1 GBP sterling. It is about 2 baht per GBP better than a month ago.

It is not as much as I would wish but a lot better than it has been.

Sounds again like your comparing onshore and offshore rates..

[LivinLOS]

I seem to remember a few years ago they gave one of these 'Pundits' a thousand pounds and they gave the same amount to an old lady who knew NOTHING about investing in shares.

Twelve months later she had made quits a bit more than the so called expert!

Look it stands to reason. If they knew SO much they would all be Multi Millionaires......

And you think that many are not ??

Up >150k month to date.. 500k YTD.. Thats not baht of course..

I dont even trade..

[torito]

I seem to remember a few years ago they gave one of these 'Pundits' a thousand pounds and they gave the same amount to an old lady who knew NOTHING about investing in shares.

Twelve months later she had made quits a bit more than the so called expert!

Look it stands to reason. If they knew SO much they would all be Multi Millionaires......

I predict as you Luckydog.....cheers

[reasonstobecheerful]

If you think the offshore (read the whole world except Thailand) is very limited and Thailands internal application (only for specific amounts less than 800k or specific exempted situations) is greater I would say your definitely looking at this incorrectly..

The nickel and dime stuff happens in the restricted onshore market.

LivinLOS, are you saying the onshore rate is only for <800k? This would be shock news for me as I may send in a considerable amount more soon. As far as I know, my bank changes GBP to baht for me at the TT rate and I am unaware of any limit or wierdnesses at all.

Thankyou.

Edited April 17, 2007 by reasonstobecheerful

[jetjock]

Anyone wanna predict how much fried rice will be in apr 08?

Finally an intelligent question to which I know the answer. Unfortunately I cannot tell anyone because I plan to make a fortune in the Fried Rice Futures Market--if I can just find the exchange they are on !!. As to the currency market prediction as to whether the Euro or Dollar is going up or down, my prediction is 'Yes and I do not when'.

[LivinLOS]

If you think the offshore (read the whole world except Thailand) is very limited and Thailands internal application (only for specific amounts less than 800k or specific exempted situations) is greater I would say your definitely looking at this incorrectly..

The nickel and dime stuff happens in the restricted onshore market.

LivinLOS, are you saying the onshore rate is only for <800k? This would be shock news for me as I may send in a considerable amount more soon. As far as I know, my bank changes GBP to baht for me at the TT rate and I am unaware of any limit or wierdnesses at all.

Thankyou.

Anything over 800k is still facing issues around the 30% withholding (its not scrapped yet is it ??) so its only transfers less than 800k OR that satisfy certain conditions to clear the 30% with holding rules (condo purchase, fully hedged, finance issues etc)... This is my understanding but it changes ever 5 minutes with this lot.

the onshore rates is pure BoT manipulation.. I read they have lost over a trillion baht attempting to hold up the baht rates by making a rate thats better than the 'market' (hence why I consider offshore rates 'real market' rates and onshore false rates)..

[wilko]

ABC this morning...ALL Asian (except the Yen)currencies and the Euro are strong (or static) and it is the dollar that is sinking. In fact the pound is not really doing so well against Asian currencies (e.g. Thai baht - Drop from 75 to 65) but everyone in S.E Asia is doing well against the dollar. South America is following the dollar's downward trend and the Yen will benefit form cheap exports. the Yen accounts for about half of the Asian economy including Oz. Like the pound, the Aussie dollar is also doing well against the US but not so well against the Asian currencies

S.E.Asia still has a trade surplus with the West. And Thailand is doing the least well against the West largely because of the political situation and the amateurish attempts of the junta to manipulate the economy.

Edited April 18, 2007 by wilko

[Naam]

Anything over 800k is still facing issues around the 30% withholding (its not scrapped yet is it ??) so its only transfers less than 800k OR that satisfy certain conditions to clear the 30% with holding rules (condo purchase, fully hedged, finance issues etc)... This is my understanding but it changes ever 5 minutes with this lot.

your understanding is not correct LivinLos. simply labelling a transfer "living expenses" satisfies e.g. my bank (SBC) and does not invoke the 30% withholding. anyway, even THB 800k @ onshore rate is more than the set threshold of USD 20,000 and those who are with banks who cannot differentiate between an apple and an orange have still the option of making various transfers below the afore-mentioned amount.

where's the problem?

[LivinLOS]

If its so simple (living expenses)..

What stops me wiring in 10 mil 'living expenses' getting the onshore rate in a USD or EUR conversion.. Then sending out 10 mil back to the initial account and changing back at the offishore rate.. Voila a 1 million profit for 10 mins work !!

This is a restricted currency with a false onshore rate thats created by a currency control.. Otherwise every arbitrager in the world would be making Thailand lose more than the trillion its already leaked holding this false rate up..

Sorry on the 20k USD point.. Here I agree but I had heard both figures..