Mass-testing not that effective in battle against contagion

[Matzzon]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

There you go twisting and turning things around again and I'm not at all surprised!Is it better to question those in the situation or to accept what they say without question?To ask questions is not a statement saying we know better (maybe we don't maybe we do).Also he is judging the success of testing regimes based purely on cost efficiency not on the success or not on health benefits and reducing the number of deaths,should that approach not be questioned?To base your testing regime based purely in financial efficiency and admitting it surely would incur a major loss of face in the international health community.Would you applaud such lunacy?Would put the amount of money you could save before the amount of lives you could save in deciding wether to test or not and then admit it publicly? 

Where did I post it´s wrong to ask questions? There are others that goes too far everytime and always tries to undermine the news and information without any foundation.

[KiaSurean]

From my understanding, which may not be correct, yes it is not free if one decides to get tested voluntarily. However if the test results is positive, one don't have to pay for the test and of course treatment cost will then also be covered by the govt. 

[Incobart]

23 minutes ago, Incobart said:

??? I think you dreaming, Thailand has 555.000 deaths per year, or 1535 per day, and again ... if people believe they will put the country economy down to save 3 extra deaths per day ...then there are more dreamers ????

If you believe that Thailand has 95 % less C-deaths than Iran, then you are thinking correct cause Iran is a high touristic spot with quiet a Chinese related population, full of Chinese tourists, and it is located close to China. ????

Edited April 14, 2020 by Incobart

[yellowboat]

Are not most tests less than 70% accurate ?  Testing until the tests are more accurate is what is needed.   Testing those who are immune or easily survive the virus would yield the most needed data.  

[cornishcarlos]

9 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Now we use the word troll, again. I have many opinions of my own, that I post early in the morning. After that I get replies, and follow up on those, at the same time that I read other posts that I confront because I have another opinion. Sometimes you get replies like my last post to you. That is because you put yourself as a person that knows more than the ones actually involved. All that I do is what a forum and a discussion board is about and for. That has nothing to do with trolling. In that case I could say that you are trolling by posting your version of things to try and sway the community, due to that you have no support for your information.

 

The Op, that you seem to think no-one has a right to question, stated that the 1st case in Phuket was 26 January.

I remembered and dug up the news article that opposes that claim. The news article might not be fact but they are no articles reporting any cases in Phuket before 20th March...

Since this thread opened, you have not done anything apart from try to bigman yourself and put others down. Or maybe you have made a useful contribution and I missed it ? Feel free to point out your contribution that I missed 

[pacovl46]

15 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Now we use the word troll, again. I have many opinions of my own, that I post early in the morning. After that I get replies, and follow up on those, at the same time that I read other posts that I confront because I have another opinion. Sometimes you get replies like my last post to you. That is because you put yourself as a person that knows more than the ones actually involved. All that I do is what a forum and a discussion board is about and for. That has nothing to do with trolling. In that case I could say that you are trolling by posting your version of things to try and sway the community, due to that you have no support for your information.

Well, you certainly argue like a troll. Whatever anyone else says your go-to response is belittling them and making fun of what they post.

 

In regards to the article, the way South Korea got on top of it was by testing essentially everyone! They had checkpoints everywhere! 
 

That’s a fact. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by pacovl46

[Matzzon]

9 minutes ago, Yinn said:

And how many die their country? Hospital full, funeral full, no mask, oxygen machine etc

 

But, want to complain, mock, criticize, moan, groan, winge, whine everyday about Thai people. Is their hobby. Can not stop.

Pitiful.

 

x1000+ more problem their country.

 

ZERO US, UK, Aussie, euro, people die corona in Thailand. ZERO. 

ZERO. 

 

Should be happy. 

 

Yes, it´s pitiful! One must assume that they are so miserable, so they need to fill their empty life with something. Then they have found a solace in grouping together to take out their misery in a country that tries their best to help them. That´s not only pitiful. It´s utterly shameful. Year after year it´s the same. If it´s not a virus, it´s the visas or people with bad driving skill or that they try to ridicule the population in any other way they can. That in a country they chose to stay in. Seems to me that there are not even enough brain to go home or do something about their terrible life, so they just continue to walk the land as the lost souls they really are.

 

Thanks for showing them the statistics, by the way. However, they will only state that it´s fake numbers. Unfortunately there is no help for people like that, and Thailand has entirely too many of them.

[pacovl46]

3 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Yes, it´s pitiful! One must assume that they are so miserable, so they need to fill their empty life with something. Then they have found a solace in grouping together to take out their misery in a country that tries their best to help them. That´s not only pitiful. It´s utterly shameful. Year after year it´s the same. If it´s not a virus, it´s the visas or people with bad driving skill or that they try to ridicule the population in any other way they can. That in a country they chose to stay in. Seems to me that there are not even enough brain to go home or do something about their terrible life, so they just continue to walk the land as the lost souls they really are.

 

Thanks for showing them the statistics, by the way. However, they will only state that it´s fake numbers. Unfortunately there is no help for people like that, and Thailand has entirely too many of them.

There’s definitely some truth to that! 

[Aspaltso]

There's no doubt that the success that South Korea had was related to contact tracing.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Aspaltso said:

There's no doubt that the success that South Korea had was related to contact tracing.

Yes indeed but only after they tested for the positive cases first otherwise how could they do contact tracing.

[pacovl46]

Just now, Aspaltso said:

There's no doubt that the success that South Korea had was related to contact tracing.

Yes, but in order to do that you have to find out who’s infected to begin with by testing extensively.

[smutcakes]

19 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

The Op, that you seem to think no-one has a right to question, stated that the 1st case in Phuket was 26 January.

I remembered and dug up the news article that opposes that claim. The news article might not be fact but they are no articles reporting any cases in Phuket before 20th March...

Since this thread opened, you have not done anything apart from try to bigman yourself and put others down. Or maybe you have made a useful contribution and I missed it ? Feel free to point out your contribution that I missed 

You really think that the medical official is going to straight up lie about that? by 2 months?... I am pretty sure very very early on their was a case of a Chinese tourist there. What has anyone got to get out of a lie like that? And why does it even bother you? Most offices were already closed by the 20th March and by that time it was already widespread in Thailand, so i find your claim that the 1st reported case in Phuket was only the 20th March far far harder to believe than the official.

 

At the start of the outbreak they were far far more reluctant to provide information into the details, location of the cases, so it could well of been at this stage.

 

On Wikipedia page it breaks it down case by case, district by district. Confirmed case from Chinese tourist in Phuket on 28th January.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Thailand#January

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by smutcakes

[Incobart]

mass testing has no use, 

1. cost a lot of money and time,  better to use for the sick or people in problem

2. maybe today you don't have, in 2 days you have 

be realistic, a virus spreading that easy, that quickly is UNSTOPABLE now

--> Test in correct countries has shown that 10-15 % of the healthy people carry it without knowing

--> Countries with complete lockdown already for weeks still get daily hundreds new infected

80 % of all the people will get infected, but only 2 % show symptoms, from a light cold, to...

only 0.001 % will die 

The only problem is the speed, hospitals can't handle, so lockdown, and hoping to find a vaccine quickly.  

better would be an easy cheap test for who is already immune.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Incobart

[spiekerjozef]

It's only for the record books that's why many countries don't do mass-testing.

[cardinalblue]

South Korea took the opposite approach and was very effective with testing testing testing....Complete picture

 

thailand is only concentrating on the numerator (symptomatic infections) and forgetting about the denominator (overall infection rate)....

 

they said it - limited resources prevents testing....

 

the problem I have with the article - it states mass testing is not effective....that is a wrong assumption

[IamNoone88]

Testing is a proactive solution that identifies and stops the spread in the transmittal stages ...... whereas tracing is reactive as the contagion is already there being passed around .... you be the judge.

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Well at last a little bit of transperancy. What this tells us is the number of infections officially given is low because of lack of testing. Of course contact tracing is essential but this only happens when someone infected is picked up, and in Thalaind's case probably means they have presented to hospital, from which tracing can present. What this means is R0 comes in to play. People infecting people infecting people. 

This is basically saying we'll wait for infected people to present. Admittedly NPI's are imperative but should be used in conjungtion with test, test, test, confirm, isolate and trace. Thailand by admission is not doing the test, test, test hence the low daily infection numbers. 

It is fairly obvious that many deliberately want take the WHO guidelines out of context. They are desperate for information that can be used for global statistics and forecasting so want as many countries as possible to test as many as possible.

People should remember that testing 

Is not a treatment,

Does not stop the disease spreading,

Does not stop people dying.

 

At the end of the day the death toll is the most important aspect and any measures that contribute to reducing the numbers should be welcomed.

To put it simply, if an island had no infections and they stopped all arrivals, how many on the island would die as a result of infection?

[cornishcarlos]

8 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

so i find your claim that the 1st reported case in Phuket was only the 20th March far far harder to believe than the official.

 

Not my claim.. That's the 1st article that I could find with a reported case in Phuket.

If you have found another earlier report then just attach a link.

 

10 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

You really think that the medical official is going to straight up lie about that?

 

That just made me smile :)

[smutcakes]

Just now, cornishcarlos said:

 

Not my claim.. That's the 1st article that I could find with a reported case in Phuket.

If you have found another earlier report then just attach a link.

 

 

That just made me smile ????

I edited my post with the link to wikipedia which gives all the cases. Including Phuket 1st case on 28th January. Officials do lie, but why would they lie about something so easy to check (for most people) and a lie for zero benefit or end.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, sandyf said:

People should remember that testing 

Is not a treatment,

Does not stop the disease spreading,

Does not stop people dying.

I'm not sure anyone thought testing was a treatment. 

Testing along with contact tracing, isolation and treatment does stop the disease spreading

Yes it saves lives

[sandyf]

3 minutes ago, IamNoone88 said:

Testing is a proactive solution that identifies and stops the spread in the transmittal stages

That is wrong. Testing is only a positive indication that there has been a spread, does not stop it, measures have to be put in place to stop further spread, like isolation. lockdowns, travel restrictions etc.

[dinsdale]

1 minute ago, sandyf said:

It is fairly obvious that many deliberately want take the WHO guidelines out of context. They are desperate for information that can be used for global statistics and forecasting so want as many countries as possible to test as many as possible.

People should remember that testing 

Is not a treatment,

Does not stop the disease spreading,

Does not stop people dying.

 

At the end of the day the death toll is the most important aspect and any measures that contribute to reducing the numbers should be welcomed.

To put it simply, if an island had no infections and they stopped all arrivals, how many on the island would die as a result of infection?

Testing does stop the disease spreading. Person tests positive is quarantined can no longer spread the virus.

 

[Dmaxdan]

To all the naysayers who constantly claim that the official infection figures are only low because not enough testing is being carried out. How would you feel if the authorities started dragging random people off the street or out of their homes and forcing them to pay 5000 baht plus to be tested? Even if they feel perfectly, have been staying at home and self isolating and have had no contact with any known infected people?  Is that what you want??? 

[cornishcarlos]

5 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

I edited my post with the link to wikipedia which gives all the cases. Including Phuket 1st case on 28th January. Officials do lie, but why would they lie about something so easy to check (for most people) and a lie for zero benefit or end.

 

From your link..

 

"Another six cases were confirmed on 28 January, with five from the same family in Wuhan and another from Chongqing. Thailand began scanning all travellers from China.[36][37]"

 

I didn't see Phuket mentioned in your link for 28th January ?? 

[wensiensheng]

I’m finding the current government approach a little illogical.

 

against a background of very few additional cases each day:

 

1. no mass testing because it is not cost effective.

 

2. A severe lock down effecting huge swathes of the thai economy and is bringing the country to its knees.

 

if the virus here is effectively “under control” such that mass testing is not required, why is such a severe lock down required? Not venturing an opinion on whether either are, or are not required, simply pointing out that the two appear at first look, to be somewhat contradictory. The cost of the first would appear to be much lower than the second.

 

 

 

 

[smutcakes]

4 minutes ago, Dmaxdan said:

To all the naysayers who constantly claim that the official infection figures are only low because not enough testing is being carried out. How would you feel if the authorities started dragging random people off the street or out of their homes and forcing them to pay 5000 baht plus to be tested? Even if they feel perfectly, have been staying at home and self isolating and have had no contact with any known infected people?  Is that what you want??? 

To answer your questions, they would be crying about discrimination or something else, anything they can whinge/complain/criticize for.

 

Given most on TVF are presumably from Europe, UK, US and Australia, i would of thought they would have more to whinge about, about their home country handling of the situation..... rather than here.

[sandyf]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'm not sure anyone thought testing was a treatment. 

Testing along with contact tracing, isolation and treatment does stop the disease spreading

Yes it saves lives

There is no dispute it is one of many factors that go towards the reduction in the death toll but not particularly effective in some countries.

US has had over half million cases and 71 deaths/million and Thailand has 0.6 deaths /million.

The higher rate of testing may well have reduced the US death toll but there is a good chance that the inevitable post mortem on measures taken will conclude that other effective measures were ignored.

[keith101]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Mass screening is not cost effective as the rate of infection is not high enough. 

How do you know if your not testing more people to see who may be asymptomatic .

[smutcakes]

Just now, cornishcarlos said:

 

Well there you go...

Strange though that it was never reported in the news at the time ??

Still can't find an actual news article before 20th March... Maybe there is one out there somewhere !!

I think at the start they were playing everything much closer to their chests, probably in an effort to keep tourism going, but also out of privacy of those affected.

[BKKBike09]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

4. Mass screening is not cost effective as the rate of infection is not high enough. 

 

This is tortuous logic. Without mass testing it is not possible to say what the rate of infection in the general population may be. The government statement effectively says that limited testing (2,915 tests) in one location, Phuket, has indicated that the rate of infection is low, therefore mass screening is not warranted. But there is no information on when the tests were conducted, or who was tested, which is highly relevant.

 

For sake of argument, what if these tests were conducted as follows on random asymptomatic individuals in local communities:

 

1. Hospital A conducts 300 tests for 0 positives over a 3-week period in February.

 

2. Hospital B conducted 100 tests for 5 positives over a 1-week period in March.

 

On its own like this, it's incredibly hard - not to mention unwise - to jump to conclusions about what the data says. It could show that there are very few cases in the general population. Or it could show that, as would be expected with passage of time, there is more spread within the community. Or it could be that Hospital B found a small cluster in say one household, rather than 5 individuals all living in different places in the local area, which would have different implications for community transmission.

 

Point being, without widespread mass testing, it's impossible to determine how much spread there has been in the general population.