Mass-testing not that effective in battle against contagion

[JCauto]

Why is this article titled "Mass testing is not that effective"? The second paragraph explains why mass testing hasn't happened - they don't have the resources! Therefore, BECAUSE they can't do mass testing, they're instead using "contact tracing". Later on they attempt to compare the effectiveness of four hospitals who conducted "mass testing" and contact tracing. The comparison is a joke - four hospitals can't "mass test", and the results of the four vary so wildly that there would basically be a correlation of zero from the data set. And then the Health Department guy says this "proved" that contact tracing was more cost effective and efficient. Good lord.

 

Colour me unimpressed with the Health Department leadership and communications strategy. 

[Enoon]

1 hour ago, Aland said:

Amazing insight on these forums. Can ANYBODY tell me where they are stashing the bodies?

 

Less the 4 Islamic provinces there are 72 provinces in Thailand.

 

10000 deaths divided by 72 = 138 per province.

 

138 divided by 6 (weeks) = 23 deaths per province per week.

 

Each province has crematoriums in virtually every (even the smallest) sub-district/settlement.

 

There is a crematorium 2kms to the West of where I'm sitting, another 4kms to the East, another 4kms further on from that.

 

Ratio of individual settlements per head of population is very high in Thailand.

 

Every temple in the towns/cities has a crematorium.

 

A very high percentage of "end of life" situations take place at home in Thailand.

 

Even when they don't they are swiftly taken home, where the rituals take place.

 

Even adjusting for my "coarse" division of numbers, the deaths would be very spread out over both time and space.

 

There is NO requirement to "stash" bodies anywhere.

 

This is just one of the reasons why the government can get away with saying what it does.

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Enoon

[cornishcarlos]

9 minutes ago, smedly said:

in 15 years of membership on TVF I have put 2x people on ignore mostly because they offer absolutely nothing of value to any discussion - you are about to become No3

 

I put him on ignore this morning.... 

 

Then I missed him and removed it ???? It's no fun on here without a bit of slap n tickle....

[smutcakes]

21 minutes ago, smedly said:

and just to add

 

every country in the world and every heath expert in the world believes that mass testing is critical - but not Thailand because it costs too much

 

so there you have it - they are not willing to spend the money sacrificing the health of Thai citizens and of course hiding the real data

 

No test no report

Man countries in the World in fact most are not doing mass testing, UK included who have even said they are only testing those hospitalized.

Is Boris Johnson sacrificing the health of UK citizens? and hiding real data?

Whats every other countries excuse?

[dinsdale]

  1 hour ago, sandyf said:

It is fairly obvious that many deliberately want take the WHO guidelines out of context. They are desperate for information that can be used for global statistics and forecasting so want as many countries as possible to test as many as possible.

People should remember that testing 

Is not a treatment,

Does not stop the disease spreading,

Does not stop people dying.

 

At the end of the day the death toll is the most important aspect and any measures that contribute to reducing the numbers should be welcomed.

To put it simply, if an island had no infections and they stopped all arrivals, how many on the island would die as a result of infection?

Testing does stop the disease spreading. Person tests positive is quarantined can no longer spread the virus.

To add to my previous point you also say testing does not stop people dying? You need to explain this. I would love to know your logic.

•  

[Max69xl]

4 hours ago, Toany said:

Well at least we now have some idea of the number of tests carried out at some hospitals.  Much  better than keeping everything a secret

The total amount of tests late last week was only 80k which is a joke in a country with ~69 million people. Why do you think the number of cases is so low? 

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Where did I post it´s wrong to ask questions? There are others that goes too far everytime and always tries to undermine the news and information without any foundation.

You didn't post it and I have not suggested that you did but I did answer you question about it did I not?I did however ask you some questions and if you wished to answer them that would be great.I did I admit take the p!ss with the twisting and turning comment which is merely meant in jest so please don't take it otherwise.I am however genuinely interested in yours (and others) responses in a genuine effort to debate the issues which is why I pose the question I do and if your interested to know I pose these questions to myself as well but I also desire others point of view to try and come something resembling a rational conclusion.I realise that my manner may seem confusing,confrontational,competitive,confusing and even though I maybe loathe to admit "twisting and turning".I see people's "whinging and whining" as people trying to help by making suggestions on how they think things should be done to improve a situation as they see it and I feel they should be encouraged to express their views and engage in discussion to further our joint quest to quench our thirst from the cesspool sorry fountain of knowledge to which we all contribute.

Edited April 14, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[Assurancetourix]

26 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

I put him on ignore this morning.... 

 

Then I missed him and removed it ???? It's no fun on here without a bit of slap n tickle....

I never put anyone on my "ignored list";
it is good to regularly read nonsense, it relaxes the atmosphere and you never have to answer it.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

It is fairly obvious that many deliberately want take the WHO guidelines out of context. They are desperate for information that can be used for global statistics and forecasting so want as many countries as possible to test as many as possible.

People should remember that testing 

Is not a treatment,

Does not stop the disease spreading,

Does not stop people dying.

 

At the end of the day the death toll is the most important aspect and any measures that contribute to reducing the numbers should be welcomed.

To put it simply, if an island had no infections and they stopped all arrivals, how many on the island would die as a result of infection?

Well if a bat infected with the virus flew to the island and was consumed by the inhabitants then I suspect the island's population would suffer a similar fate as anywhere else.Infection could also be sent to the island by a drone and remotely released to spread the infection with similar results.Does that answer your question?

[Aland]

1 hour ago, RedPill said:

Ok, fair enough. 

 

But if you have paid close attention to the 'world news', you saw big white containers in NY to 'stash' them, military convoys in Italy transporting dead people ... or Ecuador, ppl driving around with dead bodies on their cars like a ski box ... and trying to dump them somewhere.

 

It's a prevention measure. 

 

I'm more happy to read your comment as of today, there are no stacks of dead bodies ... that's great news.

 

It could have gone the other way. But better not in Thailand, with it's limited health care system etc. 

 

So be happy it didn't got that far, instead of being too critical about prevention measures.

 

 

 

More like I’m being critical of all the geniuses here that constantly go on about how the Thai government is fudging the numbers. 

[Aland]

58 minutes ago, Incobart said:

Bangkok = 12 % of total population

Phuket = 0.75 % of total popilation

Chang Mai = 0.002 % of total population

average before 1535 deaths/day in Thailand, thats 

184/day for bkk

11/day for Phuket

0.03/day chang mai

 

if now is 80 % more you think it is amazing ? before 184 bodies per day in bkk did you saw them ? where they go ?

Is English your second language?

[RedPill]

3 minutes ago, Aland said:

More like I’m being critical of all the geniuses here that constantly go on about how the Thai government is fudging the numbers. 

Sure, but if you take under consideration how numbers are being juggled all the time ... and that this article is saying that tests are not the most important or effective thing (if I understood that correctly) ... and you compare this to other countries, who carry out 50, 60, 80k tests per day.

 

Then maybe they do have a valid point?

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

To all the naysayers who constantly claim that the official infection figures are only low because not enough testing is being carried out. How would you feel if the authorities started dragging random people off the street or out of their homes and forcing them to pay 5000 baht plus to be tested? Even if they feel perfectly, have been staying at home and self isolating and have had no contact with any known infected people?  Is that what you want??? 

Why not as they have taken away just about every other freedom we had a couple more like compulsory test of everyone might speed up the process of getting back to normal and if they used the 2 trillion baht they boast of having stashed away for an emergency like this then that would be even better and a darn sight more productive than what they are doing now I would think.

 

 

 

[dinsdale]

5 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Well if a bat infected with the virus flew to the island and was consumed by the inhabitants then I suspect the island's population would suffer a similar fate as anywhere else.Infection could also be sent to the island by a drone and remotely released to spread the infection with similar results.Does that answer your question?

There is now stuff coming out of China saying there was no bat and the likelyhood it came from the infectious diseases lab 10 km down the road. Interesting to see if anyone picks up on this. 

[smedly]

https://www.heart.org/en/news/2020/04/02/covid-19-science-why-testing-is-so-important

[johno49]

The headline should read "mass testing not that effective in the battle to keep the number of cases down"

[smedly]

45 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

I put him on ignore this morning.... 

 

Then I missed him and removed it ???? It's no fun on here without a bit of slap n tickle....

I haven't yet - the fact I am considering it is a milestone for me 

[Incobart]

7 minutes ago, Aland said:

Is English your second language?

no, I speak dutch, french thai and english, can understand german... and you ?

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

There is now stuff coming out of China saying there was no bat and the likelyhood it came from the infectious diseases lab 10 km down the road. Interesting to see if anyone picks up on this. 

Yes I've read those reports and have no reason to believe or disbelieve them but in my scenario it's not beyond the realm of possibility to intentionally infect a bat or pigeon which then flies to the island. 

[Aland]

5 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

There is now stuff coming out of China saying there was no bat and the likelyhood it came from the infectious diseases lab 10 km down the road. Interesting to see if anyone picks up on this. 

Kind of hard to pick up on these subtle hints with the loud mouths screaming out “conspiracy theory’s”.

[johnarth]

we should all move to China it is virus free even the top wigs are walking around with no masks

[dinsdale]

Just now, FarFlungFalang said:

Yes I've read those reports and have no reason to believe or disbelieve them but in my scenario it's not beyond the realm of possibility to intentionally infect a bat or pigeon which then flies to the island. 

Why use a bat when you can use people and planes.

[diks]

1 hour ago, Incobart said:

And hard to say now but older /sick /weak people that are unlucky are cleaned out by nature now.  We can not avoid that until there is a vaccine

or herd immunity.

[dinsdale]

Just now, Aland said:

Kind of hard to pick up on these subtle hints with the loud mouths screaming out “conspiracy theory’s”.

No subbtle hint here. China's starting to leak and the CCP are doing the utmost to plug it.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Why use a bat when you can use people and planes.

Because the scenario said it was shutdown before the contagion arrived with no planes or people allowed to enter and so the presumption was it would remain infection free and asked how many deaths there would be then and I was just providing some alternate scenarios that would allow the same amount of deaths as anywhere else.

[Aland]

4 minutes ago, Incobart said:

no, I speak dutch, french thai and english, can understand german... and you ?

English is my first language and I’m trying to figure out exactly what it is that you’re trying to tell me here: if now is 80 % more you think it is amazing ? before 184 bodies per day in bkk did you saw them ? where they go ? Are you claiming that 184 people are dying in BKK per day and that this is 80% more then say last year at this time?

[dinsdale]

Just now, FarFlungFalang said:

Because the scenario said it was shutdown before the contagion arrived with no planes or people allowed to enter and so the presumption was it would remain infection free and asked how many deaths there would be then and I was just providing some alternate scenarios that would allow the same amount of deaths as anywhere else.

Toooooooooooooooo serious.

[Aland]

9 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

No subbtle hint here. China's starting to leak and the CCP are doing the utmost to plug it.

It’s been noticed. 

 

[Incobart]

Just now, Aland said:

English is my first language and I’m trying to figure out exactly what it is that you’re trying to tell me here: if now is 80 % more you think it is amazing ? before 184 bodies per day in bkk did you saw them ? where they go ? Are you claiming that 184 people are dying in BKK per day and that this is 80% more then say last year at this time?

Then I would appreciate you asked like this, instead of making someone ridiculous that speak your language a lot better than you are speaking mine ... be happy others do the effort ..

 

I mean if you calculate normally average 184 people die per day in bkk. If now with the C-virus the death rate is 80 % higher (184+80% = 331)  it is not an amazingly higher body mountain. I replied this on the comment from someone that think that an 80 % higher death rate must lead to streets full of bodies.

and 184 bodies in BKK,  you don't see them also, they can handle, so I think 331 goes the same way as the rest, instead of to the Makro.

[Mavideol]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

In response to criticism that Thailand’s number of cases is low because the authorities have been testing far too few people, Taweesin said mass screening is very expensive and does not guarantee success. 

they claim so very little cases but yet they decided to lock down the country.... who's telling the truth