Why is Thailand not reopening?

[AussieBob18]

17 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Fail.   "In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause."

 

My point exactly - just like Swine Flu before it, early they over stated both the infection rates and mortality rates.  But that is understandable - they will not know the true numbers until at least a year later - same as it took that long to know that Swine Flu was the same as most flu viruses - and it is now classified as a normal seasonal flu.  Swine Flu killed about 500K people after it had run its course - the world should not be shut down for something that will kill about the same - maybe up to a million.  The early predictions were 200+ million. It was a coronavirus (like SARS/MERS) but was as contagious as the seasonal flu and it had already been spread around the world. Social isolation is not meant to stop that completely - it is to slow down the infection rate to 'flatten the curve' so medical services are not over whelmed.  Read this - all of it - I have - you and others need to as well.  https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

They do not know the numbers - they estimated - they will not know for at least a year (like previous pandemics).

[smutcakes]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Fail.   "In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause."

 

My point exactly - just like Swine Flu before it, early they over stated both the infection rates and mortality rates.  But that is understandable - they will not know the true numbers until at least a year later - same as it took that long to know that Swine Flu was the same as most flu viruses - and it is now classified as a normal seasonal flu.  Swine Flu killed about 500K people after it had run its course - the world should not be shut down for something that will kill about the same - maybe up to a million.  The early predictions were 200+ million. It was a coronavirus (like SARS/MERS) but was as contagious as the seasonal flu and it had already been spread around the world. Social isolation is not meant to stop that completely - it is to slow down the infection rate to 'flatten the curve' so medical services are not over whelmed.  Read this - all of it - I have - you and others need to as well.  https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

They do not know the numbers - they estimated - they will not know for at least a year (like previous pandemics).

Yeah sure its early days. But 10,000 + dead in New York, 20,000 Italy etc within 2 months with lockdowns. It sure seems pretty serious compared to flu.

[RotBenz8888]

This shutdown and travel restrictions can't go for much longer, or the whole world will go under. We need fast accurate tests, and use all those empty hotels to quaranten people who tests positive. Greater efforts must be made to protect the ones that are most vulnerable, like the aged and unhealthy.  The young and healthy have to start work as usual and make the world function again. What another options do we have, lock down the world for 2 years 'til we have a vaccin?

 

 

 

[AussieBob18]

15 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Yeah sure its early days. But 10,000 + dead in New York, 20,000 Italy etc within 2 months with lockdowns. It sure seems pretty serious compared to flu.

123K dead since December/January.  200 million is 16 million a month.  Ok lets go 100 million that is 8 million a month. OK lets go 10 million that is 800K a month. Lets go 1 million that is 80K per month.  Covid has been slowed by social isolation but surely you realise that social isolation has not reduced deaths from 16 million a month to 40K a month.  No one can be that silly - surely??

 

Shut the world down and cause economic and social ruin and create another depression for 1 million?? NO,  10 million OK.  100 million YES !!  Wake up - they got it wrong - for the right reasons - but they got it wrong.  

[metempsychotic]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:20 AM, donnacha said:

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" this year.

Just wondering what you think they are doing with the bodies from this massive outbreak, why the hospitals are not slammed, and why healthcare workers dont seem to be as overtaxed as they do in many countries?

 

It is all well and good to speak of a hidden outbreak, but that would involve hiding many other things as well.

 

Have people reported crematorium stacks blowing smoke 24 hours a day or large excavations?

 

Do you know anyone who has tested positive let alone been hospitalized?

 

I certainly dont. 

 

Not in thailand anyways.

 

 

[chessman]

51 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

The early predictions were 200+ million

where do you get this number from?

[chessman]

28 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

social isolation has not reduced deaths from 16 million a month to 40K a month

Your statistics are misleading. It started in November/December but very few official deaths. On March 1st the total offical death toll was 3050. So it has killed 130,000 in 6 weeks. At least social distancing has been able to reduce the speed of increase.

[XBroker]

Obviously the virus is fake. I want to know if you all are still ignoring the cell towers on the roof tops & everywhere else there... like you're in disneyland or something.

[sezze]

2 hours ago, XBroker said:

Obviously the virus is fake. I want to know if you all are still ignoring the cell towers on the roof tops & everywhere else there... like you're in disneyland or something.

Oh , 1 of those people ....

Why you just don't say the virus is a invasion from alien empire , there's more truth in that then in that the antenna theory . It is just a antenna , which does nothing , and certainly does not have anything to do with a virus . Learn a bit more science ... , and stay away from dodgy websites .

[AussieBob18]

9 hours ago, chessman said:

Your statistics are misleading. It started in November/December but very few official deaths. On March 1st the total offical death toll was 3050. So it has killed 130,000 in 6 weeks. At least social distancing has been able to reduce the speed of increase.

Total killed is the figure used when it is all over - there is always a bell curve.  

The numbers you quote are not valid - but they are an indicator - but the numbers are dropping - clearly.

 

However, lets use your worst case basis numbers.

130K in 6 weeks = 26,666K per week = 1.3 million.

 

Shut the world down for something that is killing less people than road accidents, or TB, or HIV, or lung cancer, or diabetes - etc etc etc.  The numbers do not add up - and they will not add up.

 

In answer to your earlier question - I dont have the link saved - but try Google.

In Feb the WHO stated that the virus could infect about 4 billion people becasue it was so infectious.

1% death rate =  40 million

2% death rate =  80 million

3% death rate =  120 million

4% death rate =  160 million

But if the virus was as lethal as SARS or MERS (10-30%)

5% = 200 million

10% = 400 million

Those were the numbers being pushed around in the media - worst case of course - and those numbers (worst case) looked real based on the basis of the  numbers in China, and then Iran, Korea, and then later is Italy and later in Spain. The numbers came down in March - but even then Trump was told 2.2 million would die in USA alone - and 40-50 million in total. 

 

Lets get back to work. Protect the old through isolation. Practice moderate social isolation. Quarantine yourself immediately if get the symptoms and wear a mask if you feel a little unwell (hard in the west). Keep the travel bans in place. Monitor closely all new cases.  See how that goes for 1-2 months. Extend easing up when things stabilise/decrease. Keep travel bans in place 6-12 months? Ban China for 5 years?  Demand all arrivals from 'designated' countries have medical tests/checks - include HIV and TB in that check.  Make the world safer - infected travellers spread the disease before they could control it like they did SARS anmd MERS. Too late now - it is Wine Flu now - helkp as much as possible - but let it runb its course - with changes in people's social and world travel habits.   

 

[ThailandRyan]

5 hours ago, XBroker said:

Obviously the virus is fake. I want to know if you all are still ignoring the cell towers on the roof tops & everywhere else there... like you're in disneyland or something.

Wow, been wearing tinfoil hats too long I see, yes everyday is like being in Disneyland, but then life is a free ride, just with bumps, twists and turns.  Thailand will re-open in time, when the time is right, and there are no other National Security Threats or whatever else they think may be coming.  As for now crime is increasing in the entire world as those that do not have, are taking what they can from those that have.  As the virus has not run it's course as of yet, still need to keep people safe from themselves, since many will not do that by themselves and can become a threat to others by there actions and failures to do the right thing.

[gamesgplayemail]

On 4/15/2020 at 1:35 PM, gamesgplayemail said:

For the first time I do not believe that officials are lying. They are still idiots, but this time not liars.

 

 

It seems to be the only truth...

 

 

[chessman]

9 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

lets use your worst case basis numbers.

130K in 6 weeks = 26,666K per week = 1.3 million

Worst case? Those are the actual numbers!!! and they will likely be significantly higher for the following 6 weeks, even though the rate of increase has begun to decrease. Who knows what they would be if governments hadn't taken steps to promote social distancing. They would likely be much much higher.

 

And the real number dying is likely to be at least 30-40% higher than the official death toll too

 

4 billion infections? 200 million dead? this is what you are claiming is being said. I am not seeing these numbers but these would be worst case numbers. Unfortunately the media tends to publish those in their headlines when models or scientists give a range. Those scientists usually say that the upper and lower numbers of their range are very unlikely but the media publish them anyway and often don't properly explain that. Perhaps we can agree that the media should be a bit more careful with their headlines.

 

 

 

I'm not against intelligent measures to start reopening things. Lots of European countries already planning things for the next few weeks.

 

 

[AussieBob18]

2 hours ago, chessman said:

Worst case? Those are the actual numbers!!! and they will likely be significantly higher for the following 6 weeks, even though the rate of increase has begun to decrease. Who knows what they would be if governments hadn't taken steps to promote social distancing. They would likely be much much higher.

And the real number dying is likely to be at least 30-40% higher than the official death toll too

4 billion infections? 200 million dead? this is what you are claiming is being said. I am not seeing these numbers but these would be worst case numbers. Unfortunately the media tends to publish those in their headlines when models or scientists give a range. Those scientists usually say that the upper and lower numbers of their range are very unlikely but the media publish them anyway and often don't properly explain that. Perhaps we can agree that the media should be a bit more careful with their headlines.

I'm not against intelligent measures to start reopening things. Lots of European countries already planning things for the next few weeks.

Worst case - means at the same rate for 52 weeks (or more).

200 million was what was being said as the worst case scenario.

Yes the media only highlighted the upper numbers - and the worst cases (Italy etc) - and that is what caused the panic/meltdown.

We agree there - gradual planned and monitored reopening - where warranted.

[ThailandRyan]

Just saw something that made me think about why reopening at this point in time might not be so good, I know it is an analogy but then;

 

"The curve is flattening we can start lifting restrictions now = The parachute has slowed our rate of decent; we can take it off now"

 

Lets re-think where we are at this time, and as much as anyone wants to return to some sort of normalcy, I think the analogy is appropriate.

[5633572526]

On 4/14/2020 at 11:44 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

Where does your insider knowledge come from?

What are the real numbers?

And if many more people are sick why are the hospitals not full of them? Or are they all dying at home and call it something different?

I have coffee weekly with a Vice President of a private hospital here in bkk.

he is adamant that the figures for cases and deaths are underreported.

p.s. We have our coffee at the hospital because it’s the only place where we can sit together and have coffee currently.

[Olmate]

8 minutes ago, 5633572526 said:

I have coffee weekly with a Vice President of a private hospital here in bkk.

he is adamant that the figures for cases and deaths are underreported.

p.s. We have our coffee at the hospital because it’s the only place where we can sit together and have coffee currently.

Sounds like a top hospital your pal runs?

[smutcakes]

19 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Worst case - means at the same rate for 52 weeks (or more).

200 million was what was being said as the worst case scenario.

Yes the media only highlighted the upper numbers - and the worst cases (Italy etc) - and that is what caused the panic/meltdown.

We agree there - gradual planned and monitored reopening - where warranted.

Surely without lockdown the rates of infection and subsquent death would be exponential.

 

I just saw an article on the bbc about Hokkiado who tried to reopen but have had to lockdown again.

Edited April 18, 2020 by smutcakes

[AussieBob18]

15 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Surely without lockdown the rates of infection and subsquent death would be exponential.

I just saw an article on the bbc about Hokkiado who tried to reopen but have had to lockdown again.

Yep - just read that - they did two things wrong me thinks.

They had not done enough testing - they had no idea many people were infected but with no symptoms.

They opened schools - children are harbingers of infections - spreads very very quickly and they take it home.

Most flus get spread by kids - and it doesnt affect them that much.

Opening schools would one of the last things I would do to re-open things.

Allowing kids to visit grandma would also be one of the last things.

Before opening airports - but not before most others.

 

What is needed is for the herd to get immunity as I have said many times.

It is the only thing - a vaccine is a pipe dream - or lock-down forever? 

Totally reopening will make it spread fast - gradually is sensibly.

Re-opening will cause it to spread (like any viral flu) - do it so it is managed.

 

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=347e51990df80f3e9947d8c912292bdf4d0993c8-1585316112-0-AZTuoAlXcADhMEWNatVJFkDj2XvXM5Lme97CPVmC-Wr1_-g9sVxxDBnFGifXH8NnsO83gxiyn4SWUW6BQtSMnR5YYJkfyF3bPah2XtutnU3O-ex4Vwv3RSGNfunGc9KdVvmAWfUNqZXyaC8MRckootFCVCbclKLf5KS2HTyqPD8xCvpE3PE4IQ4F106rCThKVwbrID7GBqJG6ylLOFjNNCMp-iLoQHR5tNS6-Q9usAGmrdzxWvs2b5BaVULCUVhZUKNbjhg0bYUkPtob-LahJ45quzVbKAgkUn0qbl_mofE6fIBWmU6iHOqD0L3Fo1zb6Vr8GwMgEaVcJd8NvrJV1AsXWG871s6-rrivRnsktklG

Edited April 18, 2020 by AussieBob18