Another fall in new COVID-19 cases in Thailand

[DrTuner]

26 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

People in China who test positive but are asymptomatic are not included in the infection numbers even though they can spread the virus. I wonder what the situation is here in that regard. The junta govt has not made clear what the reporting process is. Who is not being included?

Same as China.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

 

Quote

2. Probable case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by PCR from one (1) reference laboratory, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.

3. Confirmed case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.

4. Asymptomatic case is defined as a person who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture, but has shown no signs and symptoms.

 

Only the confirmed count (3) is published.

 

Should not come as a surprise to anyone:

https://www.thaienquirer.com/7301/thai-media-is-outsourcing-much-of-its-coronavirus-coverage-to-beijing-and-thats-just-the-start/

 

Same playbook. Motherland has reached out with a helping hand.

[DrTuner]

Anybody else noticing nOObs praising the "situation"? What do they pay around here, 50 satangs?

[scubascuba3]

Good story on Bangkok Post earlier suggesting this could be the lull before the storm. In the US it spread slowly to start with. The worrying thing is they have cases unconnected to previous cases. Let's say potentially "it's started"

[smutcakes]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Same as China.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

 

 

Only the confirmed count (3) is published.

 

Should not come as a surprise to anyone:

https://www.thaienquirer.com/7301/thai-media-is-outsourcing-much-of-its-coronavirus-coverage-to-beijing-and-thats-just-the-start/

 

Same playbook. Motherland has reached out with a helping hand.

Where does it say only the confirmed case is reported? Where does it say confirmed asymptomatic cases are not counted?

 

Not the guidelines you provided are from the mid February and the article end of January. The situation has developed massively from then.

Edited April 16, 2020 by smutcakes

[FarFlungFalang]

Breaking news the Thai-Malaysian border set to open this weekend.

 

 

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/thai-malaysian-border-set-to-open-this-weekend

[Traubert]

46 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

People in China who test positive but are asymptomatic are not included in the infection numbers even though they can spread the virus. I wonder what the situation is here in that regard. The junta govt has not made clear what the reporting process is. Who is not being included?

False.

[G950]

The numbers coming down is good news for every one because we will be able to buy beer again soon ????

[DrTuner]

19 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Good story on Bangkok Post earlier suggesting this could be the lull before the storm. In the US it spread slowly to start with. The worrying thing is they have cases unconnected to previous cases. Let's say potentially "it's started"

There's also the first indication in that article for those looking for "but why no social media why no full hospitals". Dr Boon states that Chula, Siriraj and Bamras are full. And nobody at TVF with their extensive social media network got any alert? 

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, Raymonddiaz said:

Hopefully this covid nightmare will be over soon!

It won't be over soon.

 

What do you think happens when the infections in Thailand get down to zero and stay there?

 

Open the airports and hope it doesn't come back?

 

[DrTuner]

26 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Where does it say only the confirmed case is reported?

In the daily posts in TVF. They seem to have dropped the "Confirmed" from the OP. Here's an earlier example:

 

 

The definition and reports both come from MoPH (Ministry of Public Health, lead by Anutin).

 

EDIT: Here's a better smoking gun, the MoPH report for 14th April: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no102-140463.pdf

 

Quote

Characteristic of Infection in Confirmed cases 2,613

 

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

24 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Not the guidelines you provided are from the mid February and the article end of January. The situation has developed massively from then.

They are the current ones from MoPH: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/guidelines.php

 

I do however agree that the situation of Chinese trolls and Xinhua infiltrating Thailand has changed. It's far worse now.

Edited April 16, 2020 by DrTuner

[Almer]

5 hours ago, Raymonddiaz said:

Hopefully this covid nightmare will be over soon!

Dreamer

[Almer]

24 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Breaking news the Thai-Malaysian border set to open this weekend.

 

 

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/thai-malaysian-border-set-to-open-this-weekend

Big mistake

[smutcakes]

14 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

In the daily posts in TVF. They seem to have dropped the "Confirmed" from the OP. Here's an earlier example:

 

 

The definition and reports both come from MoPH (Ministry of Public Health, lead by Anutin).

 

EDIT: Here's a better smoking gun, the MoPH report for 14th April: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no102-140463.pdf

 

 

 

You said in your post that Thailand does not count confirmed Asymptomatic cases as confirmed cases. Where does it say that?

 

You are making it up correct?

 

[DrTuner]

14 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

You said in your post that Thailand does not count confirmed Asymptomatic cases as confirmed cases. Where does it say that?

Both the reports and the definitions used in them are from MoPH. I see no discrepancy or lack of clarity in their definitions or usage of them.

 

If you are unhappy about MoPH not being clear enough, you should contact them.

Edited April 16, 2020 by DrTuner

[ThailandRyan]

5 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

I see that the pessimist council is in session again. 

And you expected less.......

[smutcakes]

5 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Both the reports and the definitions used in them are from MoPH. I see no discrepancy or lack of clarity in their definitions or usage of them.

 

If you are unhappy about MoPH not being clear enough, you should contact them.

You are straight up lying. Nowhere does it state anywhere that they do not count known asymptomatic cases as cases. 

 

You criticize the Govt for incompetence, lying on a daily basis and you are doing exactly the same yourself. 

 

It defines what Confirmed cases are and what asymptoatic cases are. NOWHERE does it say they are not counted as confirmed cases. You have straight up made that up.

[Rocking Robert]

With so many expats and retirees. With underlining health conditions and old age.  You would think the death rate would be higher 

[DrTuner]

Just now, smutcakes said:

It defines what Confirmed cases are and what asymptoatic cases are. NOWHERE does it say they are not counted as confirmed cases. You have straight up made that up.

Zeesh. 

 

Daily report: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no102-140463.pdf

 

The definition of "Confirmed case": https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

 

 

It does not get more clear than that. Since I doubt you actually read either paper, as a courtesy I did a screengrab from both.

[smutcakes]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Zeesh. 

 

Daily report: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no102-140463.pdf

 

The definition of "Confirmed case": https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

 

 

It does not get more clear than that. Since I doubt you actually read either paper, as a courtesy I did a screengrab from both.

Thank you for confirming my point. Being a confirmed asymptomatic case would meet the criteria of a confirmed case so you would be counted.

[saakura]

6 hours ago, toenail said:

I question if all COVID-19 cases are reported. I see plenty of village folks in the rural areas  not practicing “social distancing”.  Oh, I forgot, it is only “farangs “ that spread the virus.????

Or maybe you are just bitter?

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Thank you for confirming my point. Being a confirmed asymptomatic case would meet the criteria of a confirmed case so you would be counted.

You are trying to redefine "Confirmed case" from the very clear definition MoPH has given us. If that makes you feel better, sure. But in this case MoPH is very consistent in their language and reports. There is no "Confirmed asymptomatic case".

Edited April 16, 2020 by DrTuner

[digger70]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Another fall in new COVID-19 cases in Thailand

Yea Great . Give them the go ahead and open up the country again. Then one will see the <deleted> hit the Fan Faster and Bigger than when it started .

[sscc]

2 hours ago, ecoscape said:

Please Thailand, tell America how you have been so successful in controlling the disease despite the millions of Chinese tourists up until February. Seriously ,if you have cracked the problem, tell the World ,if not you will never be forgiven

 

 

As mentioned 7-8 weeks ago,  the natural environment  -- Heat, humidity and UV helps Thailand as well as this SouthEast Region.   None of the countries in this ASEAN region are among top 30 of the list.   

 

I also further mentioned that the exact scientific proof of  climate effect on Covid-19 virus infection rate will only come year(s)  later after the dust settle.    

 

 

 

[DrTuner]

BTW if somebody is wondering how many Asymptomatic cases MoPH has, probably can count them by one hand. They would not fit the PUI criteria unless in very specific categories and would not be tested at all. Stopped at the first hurdle.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_PUIdefinition.pdf

 

On the other hand, the contents of the "Probable case" category with just a single lab result would be of interest. 

 

[smutcakes]

26 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

You are trying to redefine "Confirmed case" from the very clear definition MoPH has given us. If that makes you feel better, sure. But in this case MoPH is very consistent in their language and reports. There is no "Confirmed asymptomatic case".

Because it falls under confirmed case. Two confirmed PCR tests!!! They are not mutually exclusive. You can be a confirmed case because you meet the criteria but also be labelled as an Asymptomatic case. There is no Confirmed Asmtomatic Case because its already a Confirmed Case!!! And included in there.

[howzat]

6 hours ago, toenail said:

I question if all COVID-19 cases are reported. I see plenty of village folks in the rural areas  not practicing “social distancing”.  Oh, I forgot, it is only “farangs “ that spread the virus.????

Same old gramophone record pal. Give it a break or think up something original.  yawn. ! 

[ukrules]

25 minutes ago, sscc said:

As mentioned 7-8 weeks ago,  the natural environment  -- Heat, humidity and UV helps Thailand as well as this SouthEast Region.   None of the countries in this ASEAN region are among top 30 of the list.   

 

I also further mentioned that the exact scientific proof of  climate effect on Covid-19 virus infection rate will only come year(s)  later after the dust settle.    

 

This is nice but if they open it all back up the country is just a few super spreader events like the boxing stadium away from complete nationwide chaos.

 

It is inevitable that it will spread everywhere unless they shut down the borders permanently - this is not practical so it won't be done.

 

The lockdowns are being used around the world to massively expand hospital capacity, this is why we have the lockdowns.

 

If you look at the UK you can see that they've been getting ready for what's coming, many people seem to think there's something 'they're not telling us' - and there is - that's that there is no way out of this.

 

It's coming and the only way to avoid it for a couple of years is to lock yourself away. That's not practical for most people which means the masses will be infected and they hope to avoid health system overload and collapse by spending huge amounts of money expanding the health system to deal with the problem. The preparations in the UK are in the form of 'Nightingale Hospitals' with 1000's of new treatment beds.

 

I wonder how Thailands emergency health system expansion has been progressing during the lockdown period?

 

Are they even doing it?

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by ukrules

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, smutcakes said:

Because it falls under confirmed case. Two confirmed PCR tests!!! They are not mutually exclusive. You can be a confirmed case because you meet the criteria but also be labelled as an Asymptomatic case. There is no Confirmed Asmtomatic Case because its already a Confirmed Case!!! And included in there.

I guess you could argue that. But why would they then make clearly defined categories? That "Asymptomatic case" definition is not used anywhere in the MoPH reports. 

 

I'd be more than happy if MoPH did publish those numbers. Especially the "Probable case" figures. They don't.

 

Even if the asymptomatic cases were included in both confirmed case and asymptomatic case blocks, which I do not think they are, there would not be much difference in the end results. Asymptomatic people would very rarely get to the point where they'd have two labs tests done, due to the restrictive PUI definition.

 

It is unknown how large a portion of the PUI pile is stuck in limbo in the "Probable case" category. That at least you won't deny?

 

[berrec]

6 hours ago, Guitar God said:

Thailand has been one of the best examples of how to contain the virus and the incredibly low number of deaths is the proof. 
 

Thailand acted quickly and closed down non-essential services, told people to stay home, closed borders, even provincial borders, made wearing masks mandatory, sanitized hands and took temps at all public entrances, wiped down handrails and door handles. 
 

The US has a case death rate per capita over ten times that of Thailand. So does the Netherlands, Spain and Italy. 
 

America’s reaction was to hoard toilet paper. 
 

Thailand is doing ten times better that a half dozen 1st world countries. Why be so cynical? 

Dude your living in dreamland,  the only number that counts is number of infected people detected/number of people tested x 100.

 

When Thailand reaches 10% of that testing ratio then we can all take stock that Thailand's low gazetted numbers have some validity.

 

Until then its Russian roulette on where the real infected numbers lay.