Thai economy suffering worst damage since 1950s, experts say

[Cranky]

13 hours ago, realfunster said:

 

I’m guessing you are retired ? As a working man I don’t mind the strong baht, it has allowed me to repatriate some savings at a beneficial exchange rate. 

I agree a little bit of weakening would probably be better for the overall economy.

 

Out of interest, I checked the charts, last time we were at 65 was August 2008, from there, a straight dive to 50. Some occasional flirting with 55 since then but generally speaking been below 50 ever since.

 

As for the OP, we had -4% GDP contraction in 2008 (GFC) and 2011 (Floods), and a -12% year in 1997 (Tom Yam Kung), so I don’t understand their reference to 1957. How many TCC members were alive and working in business in 1957 and did Thailand even have any reliable economic data back then ? If things are biblically bad, how come the TCC member confidence index is only as low as January 2018 and not off the scale low? Or are they just trying to apply pressure for further government support for business ????

 

 

 

83.4% of percentages are made up

[misterjames]

7 hours ago, Yinn said:

Which foreigner rule is only for white peoples?

 

The rule easier for white people than India, China etc. 

you very lucky,

Really it's easier for white people? have you ever been to MBK? how many illegal Indian workers do you see there? how come they aren't sent to IDC and deported?

 

Imagine how fast immigration would arrive if a white person worked at MBK.

 

I suspect it's because of the same reason you have a Burmese slave they work cheap so you and other Thai's choose to turn a blind eye to it because it suits you.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by misterjames

[thrilled]

I have no idea what the Thai economy was in the 1950’s. It was good in the 70’s. 20 baht to $1.  5 cents a baht. Good times

[connda]

And we are only one full month into the madness caused by the government throwing the economy under the bus.  The fun hasn't even began yet.  Wait until the majority of those who have been pushed out of their jobs and the ability to make money exhaust all of their resources, and the real hunger and desperation  sets it.  Especially when it's evident that the government is coddling their civil servant class as they kick the lower classes into the weeds. 
This is just beginning.

[Lacessit]

Economies worldwide are in freefall, Thailand's problems in that respect are no different. If anything, the government here is better positioned because it is providing the bare minimum of welfare support.

The real sufferers here are those who suddenly have no jobs, no income. How many government servants here have been laid off?

[Dazauz]

I do feel for the normal thai, not the government in the sense of how we have been treated over the last years. The fact that the person responsible for the dirty farang comment is still in office, is an indication of how the upper class consider us with contempt. The normal thai Joe blow is still lovely and just trying to make it though hard times.good luck now with the Chinese tourist lol

[Cranky]

I'll investing in a good security system, big new safe bolted to the floor and a couple of Dobermans

[EricTh]

For all those doom-sayers, Thailand economy will go back to normal once they allow the Chinese tourists to come back in.

 

Don't worry, it's just a temporary blip in the radar. Mai Ben Rai.

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by EricTh

[shrimpythailand]

Yes - why go back to 1957 fer christ's sake - 1997-2008-2011 and now is good enuff  - I just had to go back and get my user name and password  5 5 5 

Jeezuz H Christ - 10-20 million actually out of work here... yah my company is open - we do sell some essential hospital item - but mostly industrial seals and gaskets and o rings and stuff - lots of big customers like steel mills and others still open and we are still shipping - plus export orders for big mining trucks and excavators in a few countries as well - so is selling to 2000 factories qualify as essential biz? yah  i think so - they are still open and still sending quotes and orders in every day - ok a little slower at the moment  - but siam yamato steel and saharvaryi steel and many others - siam toyaota are still open 

anyway - am glad we ARE still open - it ain't over yet but have to flatten the damn curve down and get thailand biz back open - from big to small - I don;t have enuff in the bank to NOT be working - not rich - not poor  - but kicking ass and taking names every day 

[kingdong]

11 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Don’t look now, but the mighty Baht has just trounced western currencies.  Up nearly 2% in 10 days.  Economy in ruins—and the Baht rises.  Risk on—right, currency traders?  Buy “emerging markets”?  Complete BS.

ponzi scheme?

[bwpage3]

WMO stated 6.7% yesterday.

[Lacessit]

29 minutes ago, Dazauz said:

I do feel for the normal thai, not the government in the sense of how we have been treated over the last years. The fact that the person responsible for the dirty farang comment is still in office, is an indication of how the upper class consider us with contempt. The normal thai Joe blow is still lovely and just trying to make it though hard times.good luck now with the Chinese tourist lol

A better measure of the contempt  which this government has for everyone is the presence of a convicted drug dealer in its ministry.

[bwpage3]

6 hours ago, Thingamabob said:

Agreed. The baht won't be declining much, if at all. Thailand is in much better shape than it was in earlier crises. It doesn't have large loans in foreign currencies, and it's reserves, also in baht, are substantial.

You need to read the financials.

 

Thailand is hurting pretty bad and trying to borrow money where ever they can

 

WMO stated GDP projected down 6.7% already.

 

 

[elliss]

11 hours ago, sahibji said:

is the baht being supported by some forces?

 

      Retired buffaloes ???? ...

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by elliss

[Blumpie]

Yes good to invest in a security system.  Thai people aren't generally criminals, but desperate hungry people do things sometimes.  That is the problem.

So remove all the people in tourism because it's done.  If it lasts the whole year, you can take off what 13 percent GDP?  And demand for goods is in the toilet and orders are down world wide.  This is not a good combination, and thinking that Thailand is going to do fine is probably not going to happen.

This is a brutal hit for any people, and stories of them taking gold in to get cash is a red flag.  

Soon enough they are going to get hungry.  I wouldn't worry about cashing in on a low currency or getting back to how things "used to be".  

[rvaviator]

11 hours ago, Nordude said:

The 5000 Baht cash handout will definitely have an immediate impact on the exchange rate. They will have to print more money, and bringing more money into circulation makes the currency worth less. If you're not seeing any changes, it must be because your home currency is taking a hit as well.

5555 .... First they have to give it out ... ????

[mommysboy]

I'd say these figures, as bad as they are, are rather optimistic.

 

I think for poor people it's far worse- that 5000 baht scheme is a failure.

 

It's assumed that the stimulus will materialize!

 

It's assumed by many that reopening is akin to back to normal!

 

I don't think the Thai Baht will drop much in relation to the pound- it could actually strengthen further.

 

Thailand is in a truly awful position because it's so reliant on tourism, and imo even if the planes start flying then it will take ages to recover even 50% of visitor numbers.

 

 

[Blumpie]

11 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I'd say these figures, as bad as they are, are rather optimistic.

 

I think for poor people it's far worse- that 5000 baht scheme is a failure.

 

It's assumed that the stimulus will materialize!

 

It's assumed by many that reopening is akin to back to normal!

 

I don't think the Thai Baht will drop much in relation to the pound- it could actually strengthen further.

 

Thailand is in a truly awful position because it's so reliant on tourism, and imo even if the planes start flying then it will take ages to recover even 50% of visitor numbers.

 

 

Oh absolutely.

Let's say that this goes away tomorrow - we are in a major recession right now and if people have no money they aren't going anywhere.  

The question isn't is tourism destroyed this year, it's is there going to be any tourism next year?  It makes one kind of sick thinking about it.  There are many Thais who have this as their bread and butter and what could happen is nothing more than terrifying.  

[Blumpie]

One thing about chinese - when they need to save money they have no problem not going out and getting a coffee, staying at home, and certainly not going on vacation.  

They are a tap that gets turned on and off.  

Nobody on earth is thinking about booking a trip right now.  

[ChaiyaTH]

Where is that Yinn thing lady on this forum now with her Thailand has the greatest economy bla bla stories? 

[jastheace]

26 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Where is that Yinn thing lady on this forum now with her Thailand has the greatest economy bla bla stories? 

very quiet from 'that Yinn thing' since January 1st for some reason. Got some guessing, and realised the truth for others.

[Besserwisser]

20 hours ago, GalaxyMan said:

Actually, even though you're trying to be funny, you're actually correct. My wife (Thai) suggested that perhaps we should not wear our gold necklaces anymore because of just this (we don't). Very sad. ????

This advice is been given for many years already,If my memory serves me right its about a decade since my Thai wife warned me about this!?But obviously more important advice than ever now! Stay safe

[Besserwisser]

20 hours ago, sahibji said:

this is not typical to thailand. that is about what is happening world wide. tough times and all have to belt up.

Actually when i saw the word "belt"I had a sudden association to this:https://www.theguardian.com/cities/ng-interactive/2018/jul/30/what-china-belt-road-initiative-silk-road-explainer

[DaLa]

17 hours ago, Number 6 said:

It will have less than zero effect.

Does that mean it will have a negative effect. Or as Nordude suggested it will have a negative effect. Thus a negative  times a negative is a positive. Now I'm confused. I'll trust my  fortune teller on this.

[GalaxyMan]

On 4/17/2020 at 8:15 AM, lks7689 said:

The last time I replied to a post was years ago. Since I'm bored from the lockdown in my own country, let me say some <deleted> to go along with the daily doses going around here. So what have farangs, who have "invested" or wasted their time and money in Thailand prior gotta do with how Thailand dictate policies? Times has change and certainly I'm sure the countries these farangs came from has seen better days. If not, they would have zip up, admit they made the wrong judgement call and went back where they came from, why "suffer" in Thailand? For years I have invested in Thailand, then found the culture unsuitable and moved on. I could whine like many losers here do on a daily basis but I figured, what's the chances of me changing a Thai mindset so deeply rooted in greed and superficiality? People in thaivisa has been whining for decades, what has changed? You farangs know the deal in Thailand yet still you stay there, taking pot shots at Thai incompetence that you know very well will continue past the day you die. By staying you are admitting there's a part of Thailand that you still crave and can't let go. Isn't that hypocritical? 

You were doing great, right up to the final sentence/question. ????

 

Hypocrisy doesn't necessarily have anything to do with it. I very much doubt that there's a country on this planet where you could put all of the ThaiVisa people and not have the exact same amount of whining and complaining. Having legitimate complaints about a place isn't necessarily reflective of how you feel overall about the place. Thailand's a perfect example of that. No matter how long you've been here, it is what it is and we know that. It's still got its warts and boils, like anywhere and everywhere, it's just that some people have nothing better to do than to constantly point them out, probably in some perverted Freudian attempt to deflect from their own dissatisfaction with who they themselves are. Just sayin'. ????

[Mikeasq60]

I thought living with a virus has always been the norm in Asia because thats where the majority of virus's originate. How about Thai people wear a mask when outside, wash hands often, if your sick see a doctor and self isolate...LIKE ITS ALWAYS BEEN! No reason to shut down a whole freaking country over this er....Virus. Your destroying Thailand by keeping it shut and I see the PM is pleading for help from bilionaire Thai's! You realize the US is going to start opening up! Cant stay locked up forever and afraid.

[Mikeasq60]

23 minutes ago, GalaxyMan said:

You were doing great, right up to the final sentence/question. ????

 

Hypocrisy doesn't necessarily have anything to do with it. I very much doubt that there's a country on this planet where you could put all of the ThaiVisa people and not have the exact same amount of whining and complaining. Having legitimate complaints about a place isn't necessarily reflective of how you feel overall about the place. Thailand's a perfect example of that. No matter how long you've been here, it is what it is and we know that. It's still got its warts and boils, like anywhere and everywhere, it's just that some people have nothing better to do than to constantly point them out, probably in some perverted Freudian attempt to deflect from their own dissatisfaction with who they themselves are. Just sayin'. ????

Really, maybe their trying to make Thailand a better place and not be one of the sheeple. Are you one of those sheeple, just follow the leader!

[nong38]

It is good kudos to stop the sale of alcohol especially for those who don't drink and see the army of abstainers growing it is very bad for the Government revenues at a time of declining trade, some of the decisions made here by people in a position of power makes you wonder if they still think they are living as a child in a world where Mickey Mouse and Goofy run the show.

[paulikens]

On ‎4‎/‎16‎/‎2020 at 10:59 PM, Puchaiyank said:

This is going to be a rough ride downhill for the baht...be interesting to see if the hard-asses free up the visa requirements for tourist and retirees...

 

Maybe those "dirty-farang's" money is not so bad after all...

absolutely no chance. you're dreaming, if anything it will be even harder to get in the country

[Puchaiyank]

33 minutes ago, paulikens said:

absolutely no chance. you're dreaming, if anything it will be even harder to get in the country

Why do you suppose that is?