Number of COVID-19 cases in Thailand continue to decline

[offset]

41 minutes ago, mrfill said:

142589

 - figure for previous day was 100498

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

They do not show for every day I think that was up to day 17 they did show on a graph but I cannot find it online

[Jonathan Swift]

4 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

You are obviously in a fortunate position that doesn't require an income then... Easy to support further lock downs..

Millions around the world are not so lucky and are at the limit already.. 

We had to close our restaurant and lay off 6 staff, so that's 6 families without a wage earner !!! You tell them it's way too soon... 

Your anger is misdirected. "You tell them it's way too soon... " He just did. And rightly so.  There is nothing in Dmaxdan's comment to suggest he is not sensitive to your and others' plight. His voice is one of caution and  common sense. His income has nothing to do with the validity of what he said. But you had to use that as a personal attack. Shame on you. And you and your employees  have to understand the risks either way. yeah, it's hard. I know what it's like to struggle with little or no money. I almost lost my house and became homeless several times over 30 years because of illness and the economy. I lost my career in 2007 and never got it back. I had to move to Thailand because I didn't have the money to live in the US any more. I struggled for 7 years to build a new life here, and I still struggle. I'm a musician, and guess what? No work for me right now either. But I loaned 2000 baht to another local musician because he has a family to feed and I don't. How do you know that Dmaxdan also does not know how hard it is to be without money? Do you know HIS life story? There's no need for such a disrespectful comment from you. You are being very selfish and narrow in your attitude. Sure you may care about your own employees but there is a bigger picture to consider. You may be angry that you are deprived of your restaurant, understandable, but nobody deserves to be the target of that anger. Would you risk the lives of your staff and families and others for the sake of your livelihood? What would you do if you hired your 6 employees and one caught the disease from a customer? What if one of your employees gave it to your customers? What if an employee brought it back to their families including elderly parents? There are people carrying the disease who have no symptoms. It's a hard decision, but it has be be a balanced one. Nobody's having a good time of it. How much money is a life worth? Think about all of Thailand, not just yourselves, and don't be so quick to judge. You're not the only restaurant in trouble, I have some very good friends who own a restaurant, Thai people, and they are hanging in there and waiting. You're not Thai, are you? Thai people are not so negative and frankly rude as your comment was. You'll survive if you wait a little longer. But if you don't wait, you may not. Or someone could die because of your impatience or negligence. And you have a responsibility to be sure your employees are safe and not prematurely exposed to unnecessary risk, and you have a duty to Thailand to abide by National health policies. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Jonathan Swift
Correct

[Expat Tom]

Open the bars! Let the good times roll!

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, Eibot said:

10 000 people over the last 4 months could be possible. Even if it was, it would be unlikely the governments can hide this on Social Media, plus we would all experience a major flu like wave moving around.

 

There is no evidence to support any of this, thus making the scenario you describe unlikely. 

 

The Rnaught is lower in warmer countries.

On average, 50k people die in Thailand each month from all causes combined. So, an extra 2.5k dead each month during the last four months would represent only a 5% increase in deaths. If (conservatively) 60% of Thai people die at home, then only about 1k of those deaths would have happened in hospitals spread out over the whole country. Hardly an increase beyond the normal ebb and flow of hospital business here (or anywhere) and probably not social media-worthy.

[natway09]

Look forward to seeing some relaxation in the rules, BUT once the airports open are we going to go backwards again ,,,maybe worse ?

[mrfill]

10 minutes ago, offset said:

They do not show for every day I think that was up to day 17 they did show on a graph but I cannot find it online

There is a 'Total test' column for each country. The first figure is 'now' (defined as midnight GMT) 142589 and the second is from 'yesterday' (both available on the site) 100498.

 

The implication is that in the 24 hour period 42091 new test results were published. Not bad considering their testing capacity is less than 1000/day.

[cornishcarlos]

9 minutes ago, Jonathan Swift said:

Your anger is misdirected

 

I'm not angry... I didn't say our restaurant was the only one in Thailand, it was just an example.. 

What has me being Thai or not got to do with it ?? It's my wife's business and the staff are Thai.   

[cheapcanuck]

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

Singapore had the situation under control for a while until all those migrant workers who stay in very cramped dorms started to get it, then it spread like wildfire. 100's of people packed in like sardines 10 to a room sleeping on bunkbeds.

 

Do we have any cramped dorm like conditions in Thailand?

 

I'm sure the government are all over this issue now they've seen what can happen in Singapore.

 

Construction work camps is what I'm referring to here.

Hostels come to mind.

[Parsve]

3 hours ago, offset said:

Maybe the lockdown is the reason for so many few deaths also Thai hospitals have been trying to fight the virus in the sick people not like other countries that have only just started to do this

Tell the people in for instance France, Spain, Italy or New York, that lockdown works fine, they should now as they started with lockdown even before Thailand admit any death of Corona. And this that other countries just have started to fight the virus, what story book you get that from?

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, Eibot said:

10 000 people over the last 4 months could be possible. Even if it was, it would be unlikely the governments can hide this on Social Media, plus we would all experience a major flu like wave moving around.

 

There is no evidence to support any of this, thus making the scenario you describe unlikely. 

 

The Rnaught is lower in warmer countries

What evidence do we have that the numbers are correct apart from Administration controlled information outlets?

[GAZZPA]

4 hours ago, offset said:

I think I see over 140000 as of day 17 but my Thai not that good

yes its 142,000 according to worldometer. so not many considering the population but if there are really zero cases in a day then it has to be good. I hope it is the start of the recovery for the sake of all the Thai people who ate struggling. I still think that when the restrictions are lifted there will still be a mountain to climb on the economy because nobody will be travelling for holidays anytime soon. Good luck, stay safe.

 

[rayw]

4 hours ago, lee b said:

Of course I want things to be relaxed and things to start reopening, I just hope they don't rush into it to quickly. If they do there could be a high possibility of cases rising again and then we all go back to square one.

 

I dont want to go through this lockdown again when it seems the county has done so well so far. This is my worry, but again am I worrying to much or has all the bordem blitzed my brain?

I agree with not overtly rushing it but I disagree with bordem blitzing your brain.  On the contrary the extra free tiem can be spend exercising  your brain and finding many interesting studies an dhomebased pursuits.  Try learning Chess or I think better still study and learn to play Go ( I am personally studying and practicing to attain Shodan level at Go).  Maybe try watching more good films, TV series or documentaries at home or leaning to say play a musical instrument better or indeed even from scratch or seek out and find some new music to listen to that you had not heard before both classical and rockl/pop whatever is your fancy (I love both classical and rock).  Reading more, researching more facts on the internet, taking interest in other things going on in the World like Spacex achievements and their near future excciting plans by following them on twitter or yourtube.  Etc etc etc.  Heck I never get bored and neither should you as way too much to do and occupy our minds even more so than socialising IMHO.

 

Just use your enforced home time more valuably and usefully.  Heck as you get old one day socialising or touring may become physically difficult or impossible, so what are you going to do then without many diverse other interests??  Just get bored and die hmm ????

[Parsve]

1 hour ago, Eibot said:

10 000 people over the last 4 months could be possible. Even if it was, it would be unlikely the governments can hide this on Social Media, plus we would all experience a major flu like wave moving around.

 

There is no evidence to support any of this, thus making the scenario you describe unlikely. 

 

The Rnaught is lower in warmer countries.

It is very easy and it is been done all the time. For instance France, Italy, Spain, Norway, USA, just to mention some. Only report those who dies of Covid at hospitals. Not those who dies at home or at retirement home and similar places.

[digger70]

5 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

So now they should be relaxing the opening of non essential businesses and get people back to work... 

No more excuses.. If the numbers are genuine, then start to try and save a bit of the economy...

Now that's the big IF .  IF the numbers Are Genuine.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, Somewhere In Time said:

Brilliant news as we approach late-April!  Could a modest return to some normalcy in May be within reach?  If low numbers continue, it will be ambiguous not to see that eventuality.  Big decision(s) ahead!

 

SIT

I think the decisions already been made, rumblings of relaxing things at the start of May has been knocking around for a week or so.

The government cannot afford to pay the unemployed or those that are temporarily out of work, so to continue with closures would lead to anarchy...

Expect the news to come out next week sometime.

[SupermarineS6B]

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

Singapore had the situation under control for a while until all those migrant workers who stay in very cramped dorms started to get it, then it spread like wildfire. 100's of people packed in like sardines 10 to a room sleeping on bunkbeds.

 

Do we have any cramped dorm like conditions in Thailand?

 

I'm sure the government are all over this issue now they've seen what can happen in Singapore.

 

Construction work camps is what I'm referring to here.

Go and have yourself a walk down Klong Toey and see how poor Thais live....... Mind you only in daylight...... 

[GAZZPA]

52 minutes ago, Jonathan Swift said:

Your anger is misdirected. "You tell them it's way too soon... " He just did. And rightly so.  There is nothing in Dmaxdan's comment to suggest he is not sensitive to your and others' plight. His voice is one of caution and  common sense. His income has nothing to do with the validity of what he said. But you had to use that as a personal attack. Shame on you. And you and your employees  have to understand the risks either way. yeah, it's hard. I know what it's like to struggle with little or no money. I almost lost my house and became homeless several times over 30 years because of illness and the economy. I lost my career in 2007 and never got it back. I had to move to Thailand because I didn't have the money to live in the US any more. I struggled for 7 years to build a new life here, and I still struggle. I'm a musician, and guess what? No work for me right now either. But I loaned 2000 baht to another local musician because he has a family to feed and I don't. How do you know that Dmaxdan also does not know how hard it is to be without money? Do you know HIS life story? There's no need for such a disrespectful comment from you. You are being very selfish and narrow in your attitude. Sure you may care about your own employees but there is a bigger picture to consider. You may be angry that you are deprived of your restaurant, understandable, but nobody deserves to be the target of that anger. Would you risk the lives of your staff and families and others for the sake of your livelihood? What would you do if you hired your 6 employees and one caught the disease from a customer? What if one of your employees gave it to your customers? What if an employee brought it back to their families including elderly parents? There are people carrying the disease who have no symptoms. It's a hard decision, but it has be be a balanced one. Nobody's having a good time of it. How much money is a life worth? Think about all of Thailand, not just yourselves, and don't be so quick to judge. You're not the only restaurant in trouble, I have some very good friends who own a restaurant, Thai people, and they are hanging in there and waiting. You're not Thai, are you? Thai people are not so negative and frankly rude as your comment was. You'll survive if you wait a little longer. But if you don't wait, you may not. Or someone could die because of your impatience or negligence. And you have a responsibility to be sure your employees are safe and not prematurely exposed to unnecessary risk, and you have a duty to Thailand to abide by National health policies. 

Goodness, quite a lengthy response to basically say life is worth more then money. You are not wrong of course, however there is an argument that killing the economy in a developing country could do a lot more damage in terms of death. There is little or zero government support and I am sure you know that working class Thai people quite literally live day to day and don't have savings to fall back on. As this virus is actually killing very few people in Thailand and overall I believe the more accurate rate is 1% mortality rate, (the majority of which are people who have compromised immune systems) you have to ask is it worth it? Surely the sensible view would be put the government limited resources on taking care of the elderly and vulnerable and letting everyone else get back to work before starvation and crime grip the country? I am sure you must see the logic in this? It has been around the block a few times now. Anyway, good luck, stay safe.

 

 

[cornishcarlos]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Swift said:

You'll survive if you wait a little longer. But if you don't wait, you may not. Or someone could die because of your impatience or negligence

 

You read a lot into my comment that wasn't actually there but I'll just address one more point.. 

We closed before it was necessary, out of concern for our employees and customers. We have no intention of opening before the restrictions are relaxed. But I guarantee that our employees would come back tomorrow if that happened, as they need money....

As I said before it was just an example but mirrored all over Thailand..

You obviously needed a vent and I understand that but I wasn't rude in my comment just replying to someone's opposing view, as is the nature of a forum. 

[Eibot]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Among others, yes, those are effective measures and pieces of luck, there are more:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

 

But to effectively bring R0 down, you need a feedback loop to verify. If you are not testing, it's just potshots into the dark. 

I agree. However that image you posted is just pure speculation. It says it below in the picture as well. I don't believe you have to go to such drastic measures in Thailand to keep it down. But then again, I'm just a dumb farang anyways.

 

I agree on the testing - or reliable antibody test for that matter! 

[NoshowJones]

4 hours ago, Berkshire said:

Your last sentence is the big question mark.  I'm all for getting back to some normalcy.  But if the gov opens the borders now and lets all manner of visitors in, that could be a little dicey.  How would they even do that?  Still many hot spots around the world, including the USA, UK, etc....not to mention China.   

Anyone who has a re entry permit, should automatically get back in, they have paid for it after all, to deny them this is nothing more than pure theft, people get jailed for less.

They should get back in even if it means a two week confinement.

[Hubble]

"Thailand on Monday reported 27 new coronavirus cases, bringing the nation's total to 2,792 cases, a senior health official said.

 

Thailand has had a total of 47 fatalities, and 1,999 patients have recovered."

 

So is that 1,999 of the 2,792 that have recovered, or are 2,792 still "active"?

 

Just curious, this isn't very clear.

[NoshowJones]

4 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

We paid them for 2 weeks in March but not this month.. 

 

In U.K the government is paying 80% of peoples wages.. As we all know, the Thai government is not !!

But the UK can afford to give billions away on foreign aid every year.

[Eibot]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

On average, 50k people die in Thailand each month from all causes combined. So, an extra 2.5k dead each month during the last four months would represent only a 5% increase in deaths. If (conservatively) 60% of Thai people die at home, then only about 1k of those deaths would have happened in hospitals spread out over the whole country. Hardly an increase beyond the normal ebb and flow of hospital business here (or anywhere) and probably not social media-worthy.

True, but you're forgetting that only a small % die of all the severe cases. And those severe cases need hospital treatment. In your theory we would have had thousands of people needing oxygen. There is no evidence for this. Hospitals have never been overloaded.

 

However, undoubtedly a lot of more people died from it than reported. As it has been all over the world. It's a very unfortunate situation. However, the reason why we close everything is to prevent a collapse of the healthcare system. 

[Eibot]

53 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What evidence do we have that the numbers are correct apart from Administration controlled information outlets?

None. ????

 

No country has correct numbers. Unless you have tested 100% of your population

[offset]

5 minutes ago, Hubble said:

"Thailand on Monday reported 27 new coronavirus cases, bringing the nation's total to 2,792 cases, a senior health official said.

 

Thailand has had a total of 47 fatalities, and 1,999 patients have recovered."

 

So is that 1,999 of the 2,792 that have recovered, or are 2,792 still "active"?

 

Just curious, this isn't very clear.

No only 746 cases active

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, mrfill said:

There is a 'Total test' column for each country. The first figure is 'now' (defined as midnight GMT) 142589 and the second is from 'yesterday' (both available on the site) 100498.

 

The implication is that in the 24 hour period 42091 new test results were published. Not bad considering their testing capacity is less than 1000/day.

And there's no source for that figure disclosed. It sure isn't MoPH, they are not telling the numbers. 

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, Surasak said:

On a more selfish note, don't rush into thing as the exchange rate is not too bad at the present time????

Oh! Has it shooted up??

[Eibot]

37 minutes ago, Parsve said:

It is very easy and it is been done all the time. For instance France, Italy, Spain, Norway, USA, just to mention some. Only report those who dies of Covid at hospitals. Not those who dies at home or at retirement home and similar places.

Data from France and Belgium do include death at home and in home cares. They have estimated that if they include people at home/home cares, they numbers of deaths goes up by roughly 25%.

 

Meaning if 10000 people have died quietly at home, roughly 40 000 people would have died in a medical environment, or at least sought treatment and there cases were severe enough to die from them.  

 

The point is, people have died but I don't think that much. Of course, since it spreads linear here the big influx in the hospitals will never really show. So it could be that people are dying steadily over a more spread out time frame. 

 

Either way, it's not problematic. Unless you are of course in a risk group. But then you also have the risk of Dengue, TB, Malaria to be careful for.

[offset]

22 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

And there's no source for that figure disclosed. It sure isn't MoPH, they are not telling the numbers. 

It was quoted on the TV by the CCSA spokesman in there Midday Broadcast with all the other figures that you see now

[totally thaied up]

In the paper that must not be named, they are talking about 5 exit strategies. It was a good read.  It's on the front page of the website currently.

 

Sorry to say one of the strategies was this. Looks like Pattaya is frigged for a long time boys.

 

He admitted high-risk businesses, such as bars, karaokes, entertainment places and gambling dens, would have to be closed for a long time.