Why are Thailands numbers low? Its the mask!s

[jimn]

14 hours ago, rabang said:

Because they do so few tests. If someone thinks of other reason, I have a very cheap tropical island to sell at the coast of Greenland. Now, another question would be what are the true numbers like and are they significantly lower than elsewhere and if so, why is it. There are many explanations being given, some of them seem possible and others total bs.

I agree numbers are low because of few tests. It doesn't in my opinion matter. Hospital admissions and deaths are low and that is an undeniable fact.

[jimn]

2 hours ago, sumrit said:

Don't know where you live but here in Chonburi practically everybody wears a mask every time they go out the house

Because its been a requirement in ChonBuri for at least 2 weeks now

[mrfill]

Is it just coincidence that the countries that were affected by SARS all have low death rates?

 

Could the SARS infection have provided some kind of partial immunity? Maybe, maybe not. It certainly taught some of those countries how to deal with a coronavirus outbreak. Unaffected places like Europe and the US didn't bother to plan or prepare as it didn't affect them.

[George Aylesham]

15 hours ago, Mulambana said:

A masks reduces the probability of infection from a infected person to a non-infected person by almost 70%

Plus the wai avoiding physical contact and the habit of bodily cleanliness in general of Thai people

[Destiny1990]

Its humidity of air.

[jimn]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

MERS, another coronavirus, thrived in Saudi Arabia, where it is extremely hot.

 

The theory that heat kills the virus, is just a theory. Like the fanciful notion that masks keep case numbers low in Thailand, rather than a lack of extensive testing the sick and the dead.

 

Unfortunately both theories are wrong.

Yes but Covid 19 is not MERS. Look at

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Look at cases and deaths per 1M pop. Filter the results into either cases or deaths. You will find that the countries with the most cases and deaths per 1M population are cold countries, at the time of the outbreak.

Edited April 23, 2020 by jimn

[jimn]

47 minutes ago, rupert the bear said:

a no of factors i feel-lack of testing,how do u know how many have it if you dont test a varied and wide section of the pop?,masks used ,the weather is a big factor the UV shrivels the virus,less physical contact,IE the airkissing mania in the west.the way figs are collected in relation to deaths.traffic accidents is an example your only a traffic victim if dead on the scene .those dying later didnt die of the road accident according t the govt.applies here with pneumonia figs.one thing is for sure though if you hide away then come out later it will effect you again.no immunity.wave 2 will come as it will everywhere.here we have had buses and trains full of people being sent home,a late response by gov after being flooded with mainlanders ,large gatherings for free food,to buy alcohol in a small time frame.etc exposure there,we dont know enough medically about its spread as chinas got more info but wont give it.all in all hospitals arnt full of the sick so its a bit of a mystery.i just wont to get out of here a ship of fools is what it looks like to me and the PMs the capt

Sorry that post is so hard to read

[mrfaroukh]

Wearing mask is an important factor to reduce infections. That is how South Korea could control the spread of virus to some extend and they did very well. Another reason for reduced number of infected in the country like Thailand may be reduced number of test. The more test it reveal how many are really infected.

[tifino]

Keeping the Reported Numbers Low; means they are hoping to be on the earliest Shortlist of those that the CCP welcomes back

 

 - remembering that China has since blocked ALL foreigners until further notice

[daveAustin]

15 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

The countries in SE Asia and East Asia have much lower death rates than Europe and the USA, obesity and poor diet must be a factor.

Could be onto something there. Big eaters of sugar too.

[Logosone]

24 minutes ago, jimn said:

I agree numbers are low because of few tests. It doesn't in my opinion matter. Hospital admissions and deaths are low and that is an undeniable fact.

It doesn't really mean much that hospital admissions and hospital deaths are low in a country where people simply do not go to hospitals for things like the flu, due to the fact that it is prohibitively expensive for the vast majority of Thais.

 

This virus lends itself perfectly to being hidden. Most people have extremely mild symptoms, that resemble something else, the cold. An equal number again have the virus but have no symptoms at all. Those that die can die of pneumonia or organ failure and be recorded under something else other than Covid19. And again an extremely small number of people die of Covid 19, in Sweden about 0.01 percent of the population dies.

 

Even Germany said a while back that they don't test the dead for coronavirus, only the living, something that has now changed.

 

 

[daveAustin]

24 minutes ago, George Aylesham said:

Plus the wai avoiding physical contact and the habit of bodily cleanliness in general of Thai people

I agree although it's hit other Asian nations that are similarly non-touchy-feely. When a state is run by a military (one that has an obvious agenda), one surely has to question whatever they say? Potential reason for reporting low figures = opening up tourism faster.

Edited April 23, 2020 by daveAustin

[tomauasia]

16 hours ago, Mitkof Island said:

The reason is simple as with every country in the world. No enough tests. The numbers are more likely in the hundreds of thousands.

 

YEA they are masking the numbers by diagnosing a associated illness. There numbers are massive..My friend did the research 

[SunsetT]

14 hours ago, Don Chance said:

If there are 100's of thousand of cases of covid in Thailand the hospitals would be flooded. You can't hide that. You wouldn't want to.

20% require hospitalization, 5 % intensive care. 2-5% would be dead. You'd need lots of body bags.

 

The reason the cases are so low probably has to do with weather patterns, climatic.  The cases may skyrocket in the rainy season.

 

You'll also notice many Thais do not wear masks.

Yes I think it is more to do with the high temperatures than masks. I think and hope that you are wrong about the rainy season because the temperatures still remain high. Also Ive read that the virus is averse to high humidity which is a feature of the rainy season.

[natway09]

I do not believe that testing has a lot to do with it.

85% of people who catch the virus need to go to a hospital at some stage for treatment (unless they die of course), so where are they ?

As to deaths, no spike above normal yet & if was going to be would have surfaced by now.

Main concern is opening borders & International flight resumption

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, natway09 said:

I do not believe that testing has a lot to do with it.

85% of people who catch the virus need to go to a hospital at some stage for treatment (unless they die of course), so where are they ?

As to deaths, no spike above normal yet & if was going to be would have surfaced by now.

Main concern is opening borders & International flight resumption

No, 85% of people who get the virus do not need to go to hospital.

 

A study in the Lancet found the hospitalisation rate is 8.2%.

 

 "Once the researchers had adjusted for the fact that many milder cases will have gone undiagnosed, the hospitalisation rate is 8.2%, compared with an estimated 18.4% in the most at risk group, the over 80s"

 

In younger populations, those in their 30s the hospitalisation rate was 3.8%.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196573/covid-19-one-five-over-80s-need-hospitalisation/

[ben2talk]

1 hour ago, rupert the bear said:

a no of factors i feel-lack of testing,how do u know how many have it if you dont test a varied and wide section of the pop?,masks used ,the weather is a big factor the UV shrivels the virus,less physical contact,IE the airkissing mania in the west.the way figs are collected in relation to deaths.traffic accidents is an example your only a traffic victim if dead on the scene .those dying later didnt die of the road accident according t the govt.applies here with pneumonia figs.one thing is for sure though if you hide away then come out later it will effect you again.no immunity.wave 2 will come as it will everywhere.here we have had buses and trains full of people being sent home,a late response by gov after being flooded with mainlanders ,large gatherings for free food,to buy alcohol in a small time frame.etc exposure there,we dont know enough medically about its spread as chinas got more info but wont give it.all in all hospitals arnt full of the sick so its a bit of a mystery.i just wont to get out of here a ship of fools is what it looks like to me and the PMs the capt

Sorry, I think this is supposed to be an English language forum.

[ben2talk]

Maybe the government's decision to redirect billions of baht from the health budget to fund Covid-19 preventive measures has been incredibly effective... talk about stealing from Peter to pay Paul and keep my massive funds from being called into use... Our industrious leader obviously looks slightly worried - having had to slightly delay massive military spending and, should this pandemic have more far reaching damage, may have to limit his additions to his multi billion dollar watch collection for a while.

 

I'm confident Masks and distancing help, I also feel pretty safe outside due to the hot sun sterilising the environment - I never encounter any builders, and having also cut out many aircon environments/Malls then my main risk is limited to the 7-11 really.

 

My wife's office all swore to 'isolate' at home/car/office so that her risk is limited somewhat - she's sleeping in the back bedroom now and has exclusive use of the car.

Edited April 23, 2020 by ben2talk

[notmyself]

17 hours ago, Mitkof Island said:

The reason is simple as with every country in the world. No enough tests. The numbers are more likely in the hundreds of thousands.

 

lol. So if you don't test then fewer people actually die? Schrodinger would be super impressed with that weird logic.

[JCP108]

15 hours ago, Don Chance said:

If there are 100's of thousand of cases of covid in Thailand the hospitals would be flooded. You can't hide that. You wouldn't want to.

20% require hospitalization, 5 % intensive care. 2-5% would be dead. You'd need lots of body bags.

 

The reason the cases are so low probably has to do with weather patterns, climatic.  The cases may skyrocket in the rainy season.

 

You'll also notice many Thais do not wear masks.

You wouldn't have to hide extra cases. You could just not report it in your public data sheets. Each month, around 50k die in Thailand for all reasons. If there is a bump of 10% for the past three months in deaths, that would not overwhelm the hospitals. That would amount to 15k extra deaths since the start of all of this and the only people who would really notice would be the MOPH. Until they show us recent data of numbers of people dying here by month (even if they don't do more tests to find out why), we are flying in the dark. Please stop assuming we would all know if there was a 10% increase in deaths. We simply wouldn't. 

[scubascuba3]

41 minutes ago, natway09 said:

85% of people who catch the virus need to go to a hospital at some stage for treatment (unless they die of course)

Let's call that fake news, be careful some people may fall for it

[Trujillo]

"I'm confident Masks and distancing help, ..."

 

I would be happy to read a published, peer-reviewed study (or several) on whether or not a mask actually does what Asians think it does and whether "social distancing" has any effect either. 

 

I am not aware of any scientifically verified proof that these are more than, "Well, they seem like good ideas." 

 

------------

 

That must be a typo from natway09; it should be 80 percent don't require hospitalization. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Trujillo

[Older and Wiser]

17 hours ago, daveAustin said:

The wai and bs figures. Hardly anyone was wearing them when it was spreading enmasse.

Not true everywhere then. I was in Hua Hin/Cha Am most of January and almost all Thais were wearing masks, but very few Chinese or westerners.

[Thingamabob]

'Man crushed by steamroller, cause of death corona virus'. Hence the high numbers in the UK.

[Logosone]

30 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

"I'm confident Masks and distancing help, ..."

 

I would be happy to read a published, peer-reviewed study (or several) on whether or not a mask actually does what Asians think it does and whether "social distancing" has any effect either. 

 

I am not aware of any scientifically verified proof that these are more than, "Well, they seem like good ideas." 

 

------------

 

That must be a typo from natway09; it should be 80 percent don't require hospitalization. 

"The government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) met on Tuesday to review the evidence on wearing face masks. The Guardian understands that the group is split on the best policy to adopt because the evidence is so weak."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/21/scientists-join-calls-for-uk-public-to-wear-homemade-face-masks-outdoors

 

This is probably why people have this quasi-religious belief in masks. You believe where you do not know.

[KhaoYai]

15 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

The numbers are low in Thailand and across South East Asia because of the tropical climate.

How do you explain the sudden resurgence in Singapore then?

 

[rabang]

17 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

How do you explain the sudden resurgence in Singapore then?

 

Or Guayaquil, Ecuador.

[sirineou]

14 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

15 hours ago, lamyai3 said:

The numbers are low in Thailand and across South East Asia because of the tropical climate.

How do you explain the sudden resurgence in Singapore then?

Climate is only one component, there are way too many variables between countries and even within countries, to say "what about X then" is not helpful. It could be that there was a Super carrier, or  different population densities, or, or , or,....

I live in the US.

 In NY pandemonium, in Northern FL where I am , very little.

  My sister lives in Northern Italy , pandemonium, My brother lives in Greece, very little. (both similar climate,similar cultures )  . so one can't hang their hat on only one thing.

The fact remains that humid, hot climate is a mitigating factor, but there could be another factor or combination of factors.  that could negate it. 

[Max69xl]

15 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

At the beginning of all this there were reports of Doctors reporting alarming increases in the rates of viral pneumonia - I wonder how valid those reports were. They seem to have disappeared from the internet. 

 

In other countries the Covid-19 related deaths seems to have been over-reported i.e. 'someone died from Covid-19 have being eaten by an alligator', whereas in Thailand someone who dies from Pneumonia if not tested for Covid-19 has died from Pneumonia. 

 

The collection of data varies country to country. Thailand also reports road fatalities in a strange manner (those who die in hospital are not counted the official stats which are half that of the WHO estimate). 

 

I wonder of the data in Thailand is being manipulated or massaged to fit an agenda or if we are actually seeing the real data and Thailand, although a statistical outlier, has somehow managed to control this. 

 

 

You're correct. There were loads of reports about people dying from pneumonia in Feb-March, but it wasn't coronavirus-related according to the health department. Really? 

Then the numbers of people tested is ridiculously low compared to other countries, both in Asia and overseas. We're talking about a country with ~69 million people with a s**t load of Chinese tourists in the country around Chinese New Year early February. 

[KhaoYai]

12 minutes ago, sirineou said:

but there could be another factor or combination of factors.  that could negate it. 

Yes, false accounting.