15 new Covid-19 cases close to Thursday's lowest number in a month

[webfact]

15 new Covid-19 cases close to Thursday's lowest number in a month

By The Nation

 

 

Thailand continued to make gains in containing the Covid-19 outbreak with 15 new cases confirmed over a 24-hour period and no death, Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman of the government's Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, said on Friday (April 24).

 

He said Friday's number was close to Thursday's 13 -- the least number of new cases in a month since the peak of 188 on March 22.

 

The number of fatalities remained at 50, while 2,490 patients have recovered and returned to their homes and 314 are undergoing treatment in hospitals. Cumulative cases since the outbreak reached 2,854.

 

In the last two weeks, new cases have been generally on a downward trend.

 

On April 9 there were 54 new cases, 50 on April 10, 45 on April 11, 33 on April 12, 28 on April 13, 34 on April 14, 30 on April 15, 29 on April 16 ,28 on April 17, 33 on April 18, 32 April 19, 27 on April 22, 19 on April 21 and 15 on April 22 and 13 on Thursday.

 

Source: nationthailand.com/news/30386695

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-24

 

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[cornishcarlos]

I love it when a plan comes together...

 

Wasn't that the catch phrase from The A Team ?? 

[Guderian]

The Pattaya News says this (I'm not sure if we're allowed to link to the article so I won't, it's easy to find if you want to read it yourself):

 

"Of the new cases, the majority were very close contacts, such as live in family members, of previous confirmed cases."

 

And that brings me back to yesterday's moan, that there's no proactive testing of groups of underprivileged people living in cramped and crowded conditions, such as poor Thai people and immigrant workers. Buddha forbid, but refusing to find out what might be circulating in these populations is just inviting a second wave. Singapore admits that it made this mistake, it wouldn't take that much money or effort for the Thai government to try and avoid it. If a second wave does happen here, we're all going to be very sorry about it.

 

(Actually, maybe that should be a third wave rather than a second one, as it seems Thailand has already had two waves!)

 

[newatthis]

It's gonna get to 10 or less before Tuesday's cabinet meeting so that the guard at Kad Farang (I had to Google that place) is correct.

[Eibot]

Open it up carefully.

[offset]

I am still waiting to see the party goer from Chaiyaphum to be added to the death numbers and added to the provinces numbers to me it shows that not all numbers are correct

[topt]

24 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

I love it when a plan comes together...

 

Wasn't that the catch phrase from The A Team ?? 

yeah....Hannnibal Smith (the boss) played by George Peppard in the original TV series.

 

That was meant to be a comedy as well.........

Edited April 24, 2020 by topt

[ThailandRyan]

Who, What, Where, When, and Why are the questions the article should address, leaves a lot to speculation. 15 new cases, all from close contacts of other people.  Clusters in other words.

[smedly]

They either don't want to know the results or don't want to pay for mass testing - either way the result is the same - they have no idea of disease spread or mortality rates in Thailand because it cost too much money to know such things - be very careful folks that live here - just because they ease lockdowns and produce these figures doesn't mean diddly squat  

[Ranshoko]

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

The Pattaya News says this (I'm not sure if we're allowed to link to the article so I won't, it's easy to find if you want to read it yourself):

 

"Of the new cases, the majority were very close contacts, such as live in family members, of previous confirmed cases."

 

And that brings me back to yesterday's moan, that there's no proactive testing of groups of underprivileged people living in cramped and crowded conditions, such as poor Thai people and immigrant workers. Buddha forbid, but refusing to find out what might be circulating in these populations is just inviting a second wave. Singapore admits that it made this mistake, it wouldn't take that much money or effort for the Thai government to try and avoid it. If a second wave does happen here, we're all going to be very sorry about it.

 

(Actually, maybe that should be a third wave rather than a second one, as it seems Thailand has already had two waves!)

 

A realistic post

[garygooner]

Cambodia & Myanmar about 5000 tests & 200 cases. 

Vietnam about 200,000 tests & only about 200 cases. 

Sure, it's good to test many, but..... 

[cyril sneer]

Tomorrow- 11

Sun- 8

Mon- 6

Tues- 5

Wed- 3

Thu- 1

 

 

[DavisH]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Who, What, Where, When, and Why are the questions the article should address, leaves a lot to speculation. 15 new cases, all from close contacts of other people.  Clusters in other words.

There are no real 'clusters' with only 15 reported cases. They appear to be here and there. Well defined clusters will only be evident with very high numbers. I don't think anyone wants that. 

[DavisH]

37 minutes ago, smedly said:

They either don't want to know the results or don't want to pay for mass testing - either way the result is the same - they have no idea of disease spread or mortality rates in Thailand because it cost too much money to know such things - be very careful folks that live here - just because they ease lockdowns and produce these figures doesn't mean diddly squat  

Again, mass testing isn't necesary at this time - only 2-3% of tests are positive. My waste money on testing random people for the virus. When a reiable antibody test is developed, that would be more useful. Yesterdey NY reported around 10% of 3000 people randomly tested for the virus had antibodies, though it seems unclear how reliable this antibody test is. 

[carabaothai]

How can we have a real number without testing people (0.5 tests for 1000 people)? 

[CLW]

30 minutes ago, cyril sneer said:

Tomorrow- 11

Sun- 8

Mon- 6

Tues- 5

Wed- 3

Thu- 1

 

 

Are you working for the public relations department of the Thai government...????????????

[Ketyo]

There are 2 things Prayut doesn't understand from what the cabinet minutes reveal.

 

1. Most countries are trying to get the transmission rate (R) below 1.0. That means an infected person infects less than 1 other person and COVID will die out on its own. When R is less than 1, counties can open up slowly trying to keep the R below 1 all the time.  In Thailand R is way below 1 already. However Prayut doesn't get this. He wants R to be zero. Whenever he sees a single case he thinks there is too much transmission and social freedom and wants to keep controls and restrictions in place.

 

2. The lockdown means that people spread coronavirus between family members and people in the same household mainly. This is how it is supposed to be. It can't be avoided. That is the smallest unit of transmission. The text says that the new cases are from people in the same house and close contacts. This cannot be avoided even under reasonably tight lockdown. When Prayut sees any new cases at all he he thinks the cases are from community spread - people outside socialising too much and such. They are not. They are mainly unavoidable and from within households. Longer and more restrictions will not affect this.

 

The social distancing measures are working very well and more than enough for COVID to be contained and for the health service to cope. But Prayut sees lack of control and social disorder in every new case. It will be a long road out of this for the poor Thai people. And a very damaged economy if he carries on with these over the top curfews and alcohol bans. He needs to start to lift the restrictions now, and in a managed way.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Ketyo

[JCP108]

6 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

 

 

The social distancing measures are working very well and more than enough for COVID to be contained and for the health service to cope. 

We would need data on tests, infections, and deaths that we can trust to decide this. We don't have that yet.

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, carabaothai said:

How can we have a real number without testing people (0.5 tests for 1000 people)? 

We can't, simple as that. Without it we will potentially face recurring waves that will cost far more than the initial cost of testing

[alyx]

56 minutes ago, garygooner said:

Cambodia & Myanmar about 5000 tests & 200 cases. 

Vietnam about 200,000 tests & only about 200 cases. 

Sure, it's good to test many, but..... 

agreed but kind of contradicts itself that as Nam got the same numbers of cases as Cambodia and Myanmar although they tested 40 times the numbers from the latter countries :)( again , I agree that everyone should be tested and nobody confined unless positive ) 

[Phil McCaverty]

30 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

There are 2 things Prayut doesn't understand from what the cabinet minutes reveal.

 

1. Most countries are trying to get the transmission rate (R) below 1.0. That means an infected person infects less than 1 other person and COVID will die out on its own. When R is less than 1, counties can open up slowly trying to keep the R below 1 all the time.  In Thailand R is way below 1 already. However Prayut doesn't get this. He wants R to be zero. Whenever he sees a single case he thinks there is too much transmission and social freedom and wants to keep controls and restrictions in place.

 

2. The lockdown means that people spread coronavirus between family members and people in the same household mainly. This is how it is supposed to be. It can't be avoided. That is the smallest unit of transmission. The text says that the new cases are from people in the same house and close contacts. This cannot be avoided even under reasonably tight lockdown. When Prayut sees any new cases at all he he thinks the cases are from community spread - people outside socialising too much and such. They are not. They are mainly unavoidable and from within households. Longer and more restrictions will not affect this.

 

The social distancing measures are working very well and more than enough for COVID to be contained and for the health service to cope. But Prayut sees lack of control and social disorder in every new case. It will be a long road out of this for the poor Thai people. And a very damaged economy if he carries on with these over the top curfews and alcohol bans. He needs to start to lift the restrictions now, and in a managed way.

I'm sticking with Prayut on this one, zero new cases for 21 days sounds good to me. Less chance of a resurgence.

[HHTel]

3 hours ago, offset said:

I am still waiting to see the party goer from Chaiyaphum to be added to the death numbers and added to the provinces numbers to me it shows that not all numbers are correct

The only report of this comes from The Nation and it's related Thaiger.  It was copied by a Singapore newspaper but credited to The Nation.

 

I'd be more inclined to query the report rather than the figures.

[Canuck1966]

3 hours ago, Eibot said:

Open it up carefully.

I will do given half a chance!

[FarFlungFalang]

57 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

There are 2 things Prayut doesn't understand from what the cabinet minutes reveal.

I think Prayuth understands perfectly well that Thanathorn supporters cannot protest against his medical regime.

[lkv]

1 hour ago, Ketyo said:

He needs to start to lift the restrictions now, and in a managed way.

He needs to find a way to balance the fake / untested numbers vs reality, the reality being loads of people in Thailand are likely positive, many asymptomatic.

 

Singapore is only scratching the surface by testing the foreign workers.

Edited April 24, 2020 by lkv

[DrTuner]

How's the NIH reference lab chugging along? Up to until 4th of April they seem to have done about 2500 RT-PCR tests:

 

 

And no idea how many the other WHO reference lab at Army had done.

 

You need two positives from two reference labs to end up as a confirmed case in these TVF threads. All others with only one reference lab result, "Probable". Private test only and positive? Not counted.

Edited April 24, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

We would need data on tests, infections, and deaths that we can trust to decide this. We don't have that yet.

And probably will never have. The lockdowns will be opened because of political reasons, usurpers don't want to fund anything that would be out of their trough.

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, Guderian said:

The Pattaya News says this (I'm not sure if we're allowed to link to the article so I won't, it's easy to find if you want to read it yourself):

 

"Of the new cases, the majority were very close contacts, such as live in family members, of previous confirmed cases."

 

They'd have to be, otherwise you don't get to be a PUI and get tested, never mind confirmed.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_PUIdefinition.pdf

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by DrTuner

[Somewhere In Time]

Combined with today's report of only 314 patients remaining at hospitals throughout the country, these low daily SARS-CoV-2 numbers continue to impress.  Generous testing or not, very encouraging news.  

 

The decision(s) looming at next week's cabinet meeting are enormous; remarkable and divisive they will be.
 
SIT

[havair]

1 hour ago, Ketyo said:

There are 2 things Prayut doesn't understand from what the cabinet minutes reveal.

 

1. Most countries are trying to get the transmission rate (R) below 1.0. That means an infected person infects less than 1 other person and COVID will die out on its own. When R is less than 1, counties can open up slowly trying to keep the R below 1 all the time.  In Thailand R is way below 1 already. However Prayut doesn't get this. He wants R to be zero. Whenever he sees a single case he thinks there is too much transmission and social freedom and wants to keep controls and restrictions in place.

 

2. The lockdown means that people spread coronavirus between family members and people in the same household mainly. This is how it is supposed to be. It can't be avoided. That is the smallest unit of transmission. The text says that the new cases are from people in the same house and close contacts. This cannot be avoided even under reasonably tight lockdown. When Prayut sees any new cases at all he he thinks the cases are from community spread - people outside socialising too much and such. They are not. They are mainly unavoidable and from within households. Longer and more restrictions will not affect this.

 

The social distancing measures are working very well and more than enough for COVID to be contained and for the health service to cope. But Prayut sees lack of control and social disorder in every new case. It will be a long road out of this for the poor Thai people. And a very damaged economy if he carries on with these over the top curfews and alcohol bans. He needs to start to lift the restrictions now, and in a managed way.

Good post.