Thai baht to plummet ? Thailand worst hit

[nomad2019]

Just read this report today in the examiner.

See attatchment.

 

What would this mean for the baht, condo prises here in LOS 

[saakura]

Dont get wet dreams. Going by the past, nothing affects teflon Thailand. 

[TommyBlue]

I sure hope so - money too high

[sanemax]

Considering that Western economies are getting hit much harder than the Thai economy and that Western economies could well be decimated in the future , its highly likely that the Baht will rise  against Western currencies .

(Ha ha. yeah got a bit tongue tied , the Baht will probably rise against Western currencies is what I was trying to say ????

Edited April 26, 2020 by sanemax

[cornishcarlos]

13 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Considering that Western economies are getting hit much harder than the Thai economy

 

What makes you say that ? Genuinely would like to hear your reasoning behind that..

I don't spend much time looking into economics, so would appreciate hearing some info.

[mfd101]

We can all dream. Occasionally dreams come true.

[tonray]

The value of any currency only is relevant in relation to another currency. If the US dollar for example is suppressed by the FED lowering rates to zero and buying bonds in the open market to keep rates down, then the dollar will never gain much against the baht. Same for Euro, UK pound etc etc. For a sustained decline against major western currencies you need Thailand to be crashing while the others are soaring...if everyone is crashing, not much change is going to happen. It remains to be seen who comes out of it better but the US  policy of low rates has been there for almost 2 decades now and I'm not sure they could change it at this point. So I'm hoping for 33.5 baht to the dollar (at best) and probably more likely hover around 32/32.5 for a long long time

Edited April 26, 2020 by tonray

[ozfarang]

7 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

And Thailand ?? Unemployed figures ??

Link to article

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2020/04/16/uk-ex-who-director-warns-2-to-3-years-disruption-imf-predicts-sharp-drop-thai-economy/

 

"7 million Thai jobs already gone and this will claim up to 10 million says top business leader

It comes as Kalin Sarasin who is the Head of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and a member of Thailand’s Council of government and business leaders claims that 7 million jobs have already been lost due to this catastrophe.

He predicted that a further 3 million will also be lost as the kingdom, like other nations, struggles to control the disease within its borders and the worst effects of damage to the world economy."

Edited April 26, 2020 by ozfarang

[sanemax]

4 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

And Thailand ?? Unemployed figures ??

Thailands economy will take a hit as well , but the Thai Gov isnt burrowing  Billions to keep the population  fed and alive 

  Thailand seems to have the virus under control , whilst in the UK its spreading like wildfire and thus will last much longer and have more effect\

  Its generally accepted that there will be a second wave of the virus which will be worse than the first 

[cornishcarlos]

2 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Its generally accepted that there will be a second wave of the virus which will be worse than the first 

 

Your info was good up to this point !! 

[sucit]

I expect the baht to get stronger against the dollar as they print money at unprecedented levels. This is just starting over there and they are talking about 2k checks for all citizens. 

 

I think if and when they start these longer term policies like this, the markets are going to wake up and finally realize the dollar is dead. 

 

idk exactly what will happen but the definition of inflation is more money in circulation, so it does not seem very good for good ol usa. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by sucit

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, sucit said:

I expect the baht to get stronger against the dollar as they print money at unprecedented levels. This is just starting over there and they are talking about 2k checks for all citizens. 

 

I think if and when they start these longer term policies like this, the markets are going to wake up and finally realize the dollar is dead. 

 

idk exactly what will happen but the definition of inflation is more money in circulation, so it does not seem very good for good ol usa. 

 

I get paid in USD !! Maybe I should ask the boss if I can get Baht instead ??

[sanemax]

2 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Your info was good up to this point !! 

Its generally accepted that a second wave of the virus will come, once all the lock downs and restrictions have been lifted , its not a matter of *If*, its a matter of how bad it will be 

[Henryford]

Western countries borrowing $trillions. Thailand borrows 5 bob. I think the baht will strengthen.

[cornishcarlos]

Just now, sanemax said:

Its generally accepted that a second wave of the virus will come, once all the lock downs and restrictions have been lifted , its not a matter of *If*, its a matter of how bad it will be 

 

But you said it is generally accepted that it will be worse than this wave..

[Susco]

3 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

6 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Its generally accepted that there will be a second wave of the virus which will be worse than the first 

 

Your info was good up to this point !! 

 

Because you know this info is wrong, as you're a doctor, specialized in virus diseases. Right?

[cornishcarlos]

Just now, Susco said:

 

Because you know this info is wrong, as you're a doctor, specialized in virus diseases. Right?

 

I am not, but I haven't heard any specialist doctors say (not lately) that we are going to have a 2nd wave that is worse than this one either.

[Lacessit]

18 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

And Thailand ?? Unemployed figures ??

Pick a number. Any number. It will probably have a reasonable chance of being more accurate than the official figures.

[sucit]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

I get paid in USD !! Maybe I should ask the boss if I can get Baht instead ??

Haha. Right, I wish it were so simple. 

 

What I said may not be reality but it is definitely a possibility. 

 

If you get paid in usd there is nothing you can do, but if you hold usd it can go into gold or baht. I would say gold is safest right now, but who am i. Good luck! 

[sanemax]

2 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

But you said it is generally accepted that it will be worse than this wave..

Look at the second wave of Corvid that is hitting Singapore now, much worse than the first wave 

[sucit]

6 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Its generally accepted that a second wave of the virus will come, once all the lock downs and restrictions have been lifted , its not a matter of *If*, its a matter of how bad it will be 

I think the real question that is going to influence everything is what we do for the second wave. Do we lockdown again? 

 

 

[IvorBiggun2]

14 minutes ago, sanemax said:

Thailand seems to have the virus under control

Who in their right mind believes the Thai government?     

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, sanemax said:

Look at the second wave of Corvid that is hitting Singapore now, much worse than the first wave 

 

It's not the 2nd wave.. No restrictions have been eased, in fact they have become stricter.

The extra numbers are confined to worker dorms that are quarantined. Community cases are averaging about 10-30 per day over the past couple weeks..

 

Anyway, this is about the Baht !!

[madmen]

The baht will NEVER die. No matter what you throw at hit, condo! Market wont crash in fact prices will increase, Thai bussines logic will prevail 

[Susco]

5 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

I am not, but I haven't heard any specialist doctors say (not lately) that we are going to have a 2nd wave that is worse than this one either.

Maybe you then should try to read not only the news you want to read.

 

These are of 1 and 4 days ago, does that qualify as lately for you?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/22/first-thing-a-second-coronavirus-wave-could-be-worse-than-the-first

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/cdc-director-warns-second-wave-of-coronavirus-this-winter-could-be-worse/ar-BB1304st

[cornishcarlos]

4 minutes ago, Susco said:

Maybe you then should try to read not only the news you want to read.

 

These are of 1 and 4 days ago, does that qualify as lately for you?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/22/first-thing-a-second-coronavirus-wave-could-be-worse-than-the-first

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/cdc-director-warns-second-wave-of-coronavirus-this-winter-could-be-worse/ar-BB1304st

 

I've read both and both headlines contain the word "could"....

Because they don't know either.. They think it might be harder to deal with as it will possibly run concurrent with normal flu season, not that it will be worse.

So it is not generally accepted that the 2nd wave will be worse. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by cornishcarlos

[Susco]

3 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

I've read both and both headlines contain the word "could"....

Because they don't know either..

So it is not generally accepted that the 2nd wave will be worse. 

But the opposite is also not generally accepted.

 

And by the way, the most recent article says " most likely " much difference from " could"

Edited April 26, 2020 by Susco

[sanemax]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

I've read both and both headlines contain the word "could"....

Because they don't know either..

So it is not generally accepted that the 2nd wave will be worse. 

OK, its highly likely, almost definite that there will be a second wave and its feared that the second wave will be worse than the first , bearing in mind the the second wave of the Spanish flu was worse than the first

[sungod]

13 minutes ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

Who in their right mind believes the Thai government?     

Not fair, who in their right mind believes any government!!!!

[theoldgit]

40 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

And Thailand ?? Unemployed figures ??

 

But the Thai Government don't seem to be handing out shed loads of cash to the unemployed, affected businesses etc on the same scale as some Western Governments, all of which will have to repaid sooner ot later.