U.S. coronavirus outbreak soon to be deadlier than any flu since 1967 as deaths top 60,000

[stevenl]

55 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

No I am asking him to defend the claim he made that
 

“There is absolutely no evidence lockdowns or social distancing works.“

It is impossible to prove a negative like that. My gut tells.e lockdowns work, but I can't prove it.

[RJRS1301]

2 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Australia and nz are proof it has worked. They are starting to open up and have declared the virus beaten.

 

US And UK were reluctant and are still on the rise.

Oh no Australia is NOT declaring the virus "beaten", they are not even saying"under control", they are considering and are lifting some restrictions, and increasing testing. They are cautiously optimistic

 

[Bluespunk]

19 minutes ago, stevenl said:

It is impossible to prove a negative like that. My gut tells.e lockdowns work, but I can't prove it.

If a poster makes a claim like that, they should either prove it or retract it. 
 

The decline in covid-19 infections in countries such as Spain shows lockdowns and social distancing are able to slow down the spread of it. 
 

To claim there is absolutely no evidence showing lockdowns work, as sucit did, is nonsensical. 
 

Are there better ways, there may be and it would be great if there were, but that is no reason to claim there is absolutely no evidence lockdowns and social distancing work. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Bluespunk

[stevenl]

10 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

If a poster makes a claim like that, they should either prove it or retract it. 
 

The decline in covid-19 infections in countries such as Spain shows lockdowns and social distancing are able to slow down the spread of it. 
 

To claim there is absolutely no evidence showing lockdowns work, as sucit did, is nonsensical. 
 

Are there better ways, there may be and it would be great if there were, but that is no reason to claim there is no evidence lockdowns and social distancing don’t work. 

No. The claim ' there is no proof lockdowns work' is 1. Impossible to proof and 2. He has given credible links that support the position.

 

The only way to settle this is by proving lockdowns work, which I doubt has been done.

[FarFlungFalang]

11 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

If a poster makes a claim like that, they should either prove it or retract it. 
 

The decline in covid-19 infections in countries such as Spain shows lockdowns and social distancing are able to slow down the spread of it. 
 

To claim there is absolutely no evidence showing lockdowns work, as sucit did, is nonsensical. 
 

Are there better ways, there may be and it would be great if there were, but that is no reason to claim there is no evidence lockdowns and social distancing work. 

Have you heard about the curve?With or without lockdowns viral infections decline after a while because enough people get infected and develop immunity which causes the infection to die out and it happens with all viral infections so far even without all this dung about lockdowns.

[Bluespunk]

7 minutes ago, stevenl said:

No. The claim ' there is no proof lockdowns work' is 1. Impossible to proof and 2. He has given credible links that support the position.

 

The only way to settle this is by proving lockdowns work, which I doubt has been done.

This what sucit said

 

“There is absolutely no evidence lockdowns or social distancing works.“

 

That claim needs factual based evidence to support it or retracting

Edited May 1, 2020 by Bluespunk

[stevenl]

1 minute ago, Bluespunk said:

This what sucit said

 

“There is absolutely no evidence lockdowns or social distancing works.“

Yes, see my post.

 

I disagree with the position, but there is no evidence that I know of.

[Bluespunk]

6 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Have you heard about the curve?With or without lockdowns viral infections decline after a while because enough people get infected and develop immunity which causes the infection to die out and it happens with all viral infections so far even without all this dung about lockdowns.

Still does not mean that there is no evidence showing lockdowns and social distancing work. 

[Bluespunk]

2 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Yes, see my post.

 

I disagree with the position, but there is no evidence that I know of.

If he can’t back it up then he should admit that his claim is erroneous. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Bluespunk

[vermin on arrival]

34 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Australia and nz are proof it has worked. They are starting to open up and have declared the virus beaten.

 

US And UK were reluctant and are still on the rise.

Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea seem to have beaten it without lockdowns so there may be other factors at work, and lockdowns may not be a necessary component and other factors such as masks, testing, tracking, travel restrictions and quarantines etc. may be a better way to go. But certainly Aus and NZ did a great job. US and UK seemed to be reluctant to do anything useful.

[FarFlungFalang]

38 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

Still does not mean that there is no evidence showing lockdowns and social distancing work. 

Do you mean work as in slowing the spread or stopping the spread?Singapore almost slowed the spread but only for a short time.Some experts say it might be possible to slow the spread but in the end the difference will be minimal.There are said to be no known studies to prove one way or they other and that such studies would be fraught with to many variables especially when multiple regimes are undertaken at the same time.I understand that complete and utter lockdown and social isolation will stop the spread but that is all but impossible without global cooperation and at such short notice.

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Sujo said:

Australia and nz are proof it has worked. They are starting to open up and have declared the virus beaten.

 

US And UK were reluctant and are still on the rise.

Wuhan despite us not believing all the numbers is living proof that lockdowns worked to.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

From Johns Hopkins daily CV report for April 29 on the status of testing in the U.S.:
 

Quote

 

Despite the efforts thus far to increase US testing capacity, some states and health systems continue to report challenges meeting testing demand. Critical supplies—including personal protective equipment (PPE), nasal swabs, and chemical reagents—remain in short supply in some areas, which can limit testing throughput.

 

US Vice President Mike Pence addressed this issue on April 27, noting that test kit availability does not necessarily correlate with the number of tests that can be performed. The federal government has worked with private companies to increase production of these supplies, but it will remain to be seen whether laboratories will be able to maintain sufficient inventory to allow for the dramatic increases in testing.

 

 

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/COVID-19-Updates---April-29.html?soid=1107826135286&aid=QOc0B2jM-nE

 

In other words, the feds are continuing to muddle and fail...

 

[Bluespunk]

26 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Do you mean work as in slowing the spread or stopping the spread?Singapore almost slowed the spread but only for a short time.Some experts say it might be possible to slow the spread but in the end the difference will be minimal.There are said to be no known studies to prove one way or they other and that such studies would be fraught with to many variables especially when multiple regimes are undertaken at the same time.I understand that complete and utter lockdown and social isolation will stop the spread but that is all but impossible without global cooperation and at such short notice.

No, I mean that the claim there is “absolutely no evidence” that lockdowns and social distancing work, is complete nonsense. 

[heybruce]

10 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Have you heard about the curve?With or without lockdowns viral infections decline after a while because enough people get infected and develop immunity which causes the infection to die out and it happens with all viral infections so far even without all this dung about lockdowns.

The ideas about immunity and curves are unproven in the case of Covid 19.  Past experience with other viruses give confidence that some immunity is developed by those who contract the disease, but how much and for how long is unknown.  If Covid 19 is like the flu or cold, the immunity won't be for long.

[Tounge Thaied]

The numbers are fairly equal now across the flu-covid spectrum. So are we now going to expect that every year we are going to shut down the world because the numbers are the same as the flu? And why have we never shut down the world for the flu deaths? This covid shut down is all bs. Take a look at how Taiwan handled this. They are neighbors with China and did no lockdown at all only 400 deaths. 

[candide]

2 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

The numbers are fairly equal now across the flu-covid spectrum. So are we now going to expect that every year we are going to shut down the world because the numbers are the same as the flu? And why have we never shut down the world for the flu deaths? This covid shut down is all bs. Take a look at how Taiwan handled this. They are neighbors with China and did no lockdown at all only 400 deaths. 

You need to wait a few months before being able to make a relevant comparison.

[Misty]

3 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

The numbers are fairly equal now across the flu-covid spectrum. So are we now going to expect that every year we are going to shut down the world because the numbers are the same as the flu? And why have we never shut down the world for the flu deaths? This covid shut down is all bs. Take a look at how Taiwan handled this. They are neighbors with China and did no lockdown at all only 400 deaths. 

Deaths are hard to tally in general, and the process differs among diseases. The CDC estimates that flu kills 24,000 to 62,000 Americans every year, a number that seems superficially similar to the 58,000 COVID-19 deaths thus far. That comparison is misleading. COVID-19 deaths are counted based either on a positive diagnostic test for the coronavirus or on clinical judgment. Flu deaths are estimated through a model that looks at hospitalizations and death certificates, and accounts for the possibility that many deaths are due to flu but aren’t coded as such. If flu deaths were counted like COVID-19 deaths, the number would be substantially lower. This doesn’t mean we’re overestimating the flu. It does mean we are probably underestimating COVID-19. - Ed Yong, The Atlantic

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/

[Eric Loh]

5 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

Take a look at how Taiwan handled this. They are neighbors with China and did no lockdown at all only 400 deaths. 

A lot to do with early preparations. Taiwan had a very bad experience with SARS and they have prepared manuals and protocols to deal with any future pandemic and there were immensely helpful. They also formed a task force early on 20 Jan and had scientist in form of their VP Dr Chen, a well respected epidemiologist to head. Taiwan had a vigorous public health measures of tracing and isolation. The testing was also done early in January. Taiwan reaping the fast recovery due to early preparation and focus on managing the pandemic without the politics. 

[Phulublub]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

He has already provided the evidence that there is no evidence by providing no evidence if you now make a claim that it's "complete nonsense" should you not also provide evidence?An interesting admission from the WHO about the Swedish model.

I think it too early to call that Sweden got it right. I hope they have, BUT...

 

Compared to their nearest neighbours (Norway, Denmark) their numbers are much worse.  So far, containable and if they can achieve herd immunity while the medical facilities remain able to cope with a cushion we should all applaud both them and thier Government.

 

Swedes are, by and large, much more trusting of their Government, have a very good heatlth system and are rational, sensible people (I generalise).  I have a friend in Stockholm.  Both he and his wife believe they have had Covid - both were bedridden for a fortnight, and both still weak and recovering some three weeks later.  Neither went to doctor, hospital or were diagnosed but they did isolate themselves. He reports that informal social distancing, and other "good" practices are widely used. 

 

My take - Sweden ciuld be a great role model for less well equipped countries who have a higher proportion of the populations who are much more liable to take a self-centred "I'm OK Jack" view  (UK, US, perhaps) to look at and follow as they emerge from lockdown.

 

PH

[vermin on arrival]

7 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

The numbers are fairly equal now across the flu-covid spectrum. So are we now going to expect that every year we are going to shut down the world because the numbers are the same as the flu? And why have we never shut down the world for the flu deaths? This covid shut down is all bs. Take a look at how Taiwan handled this. They are neighbors with China and did no lockdown at all only 400 deaths. 

only 400 case....5 or 6 deaths

[overherebc]

On 4/30/2020 at 8:14 AM, Bkk Brian said:

Yes a very bad flu and no vaccine, so ongoing 

Does any new yearly flu have vaccine ?

[Sheryl]

10 hours ago, Tounge Thaied said:

The numbers are fairly equal now across the flu-covid spectrum. So are we now going to expect that every year we are going to shut down the world because the numbers are the same as the flu? And why have we never shut down the world for the flu deaths?

 

The world very much shut down for the Spanish Flu which is what this is most similiar to, epidemiologically.

 

It also made the mistake of re-opening too abruptly setting off a second wave which was worse than the first

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sheryl]

Once again, youtube clip from non0authoritiatiev source removed.

 

Please note that it is the source posting the clip to youtube, not who is shown talking on it, that needs to be authoritative.

 

This is because clips are easily edited and doctored.

[stevenl]

9 minutes ago, overherebc said:

Does any new yearly flu have vaccine ?

Yes.

[FarFlungFalang]

4 hours ago, Phulublub said:

I think it too early to call that Sweden got it right. I hope they have, BUT...

 

Compared to their nearest neighbours (Norway, Denmark) their numbers are much worse.  So far, containable and if they can achieve herd immunity while the medical facilities remain able to cope with a cushion we should all applaud both them and thier Government.

 

Swedes are, by and large, much more trusting of their Government, have a very good heatlth system and are rational, sensible people (I generalise).  I have a friend in Stockholm.  Both he and his wife believe they have had Covid - both were bedridden for a fortnight, and both still weak and recovering some three weeks later.  Neither went to doctor, hospital or were diagnosed but they did isolate themselves. He reports that informal social distancing, and other "good" practices are widely used. 

 

My take - Sweden ciuld be a great role model for less well equipped countries who have a higher proportion of the populations who are much more liable to take a self-centred "I'm OK Jack" view  (UK, US, perhaps) to look at and follow as they emerge from lockdown.

 

PH

I don't think it's to early to call Sweden's model preferable but it's to early to tell what their numbers will be compared to other countries.It will be interesting to see how they compare when it's finished.Many people in Australia are locked in hotel rooms without being able to open a window for 2 weeks and haven't committed any offence which I think is cruel and inhuman.

[overherebc]

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

Yes.

Flu vaccines are based on best guess models of which seasonal flu viruses are likely to spread in each particular year. Based on 3 or 4 recent viruses. If the 'new' seasonal virus has changed in a big way from last years seasonal virus then the vaccine won't have a big effect on it. The 'new' virus will be used in preparing a vaccine for next year, but, next year the virus may/will change again. So, can you actually call it a flu vaccine?

[GalaxyMan]

5 hours ago, Phulublub said:

I think it too early to call that Sweden got it right. I hope they have, BUT...

 

Compared to their nearest neighbours (Norway, Denmark) their numbers are much worse.  So far, containable and if they can achieve herd immunity while the medical facilities remain able to cope with a cushion we should all applaud both them and thier Government.

 

Swedes are, by and large, much more trusting of their Government, have a very good heatlth system and are rational, sensible people (I generalise).  I have a friend in Stockholm.  Both he and his wife believe they have had Covid - both were bedridden for a fortnight, and both still weak and recovering some three weeks later.  Neither went to doctor, hospital or were diagnosed but they did isolate themselves. He reports that informal social distancing, and other "good" practices are widely used. 

 

My take - Sweden ciuld be a great role model for less well equipped countries who have a higher proportion of the populations who are much more liable to take a self-centred "I'm OK Jack" view  (UK, US, perhaps) to look at and follow as they emerge from lockdown.

 

PH

The whole premise of herd immunity is just that, IMMUNITY after becoming infected, which so far has been shown to NOT be happening. People are still showing the virus in their systems 50-70 days later and there have been many cases of getting it again.

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, overherebc said:

Flu vaccines are based on best guess models of which seasonal flu viruses are likely to spread in each particular year. Based on 3 or 4 recent viruses. If the 'new' seasonal virus has changed in a big way from last years seasonal virus then the vaccine won't have a big effect on it. The 'new' virus will be used in preparing a vaccine for next year, but, next year the virus may/will change again. So, can you actually call it a flu vaccine?

"recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60%" I would call that a vaccine saving millions of lives a year, have you got a better name for it?

[overherebc]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

"recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60%" I would call that a vaccine saving millions of lives a year, have you got a better name for it?

Flu symptoms reduction injection.

A vaccine by definition provides immunity. Flu shots don't.

Edited May 2, 2020 by overherebc