UK should have gone into coronavirus lockdown sooner - government scientific adviser

[webfact]

UK should have gone into coronavirus lockdown sooner - government scientific adviser

 

Professor John Edmunds poses for a photograph outside the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) in London, Britain April 6, 2020. REUTERS/Simon Dawson/Files

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's failure to impose a nationwide lockdown to tackle the spread of the coronavirus sooner has cost many lives, one of the government's scientific advisers said on Sunday.

 

Britain is one of the worst-hit countries in the world, with a death toll of more than 50,000 from COVID-19, according to a Reuters tally this week based on official sources.

 

Critics from a broad spectrum including medical professionals, scientists and lawmakers, say the government has botched its response to the outbreak by being too slow in imposing crucial measures such as the lockdown and protecting the elderly in care homes.

 

Despite reservations from some of its own scientific advisers, the government is now easing nationwide lockdown measures which have closed much of the economy since March 23.

 

Asked during an interview on BBC TV what regrets he had about the handling of the outbreak, John Edmunds, a member of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said: "We should have gone into lockdown earlier."

 

"The data we were dealing with in the early part of March and our situational awareness was really quite poor so I think it would have been very hard to pull the trigger at that point but I wish we had ... I think that has cost a lot of lives."

 

Asked whether he agreed with Edmunds, health minister Matt Hancock told the BBC: "No. I think we took the right decisions at the right time and there is a broad range on SAGE of scientific opinion and we were guided by the science."

 

Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, also repeated a previous warning that he would prefer to see the number of new cases, estimated to be around 5,000 a day in the community in England, fall further before restrictions are eased.

 

"It is definitely not all over, there is an awful long way to go," he said.

 

(Reporting by Kylie MacLellan; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-08

 

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[Matzzon]

Yep, that might be true. However, that as a government adviser go out and try to look smart with all the facts in hand just makes this guy look stupid.

[stouricks]

Hey, it's only TODAY that face masks are now mandatory.

[tribalfusion001]

Judging by the protests in the UK, it would have been wiser to have no lockdowns. The cure is worse than disease.

[transam]

If you take a look at the photo below of folk not giving a stuff about the virus you will see people doing the right thing in the UK is near nonexistent.

To top it all they are demonstrating over ONE USA cop going over the top.......Flushing crazy...The UK's woodwork is being taken over by low-life....

 

 

 

[bkk6060]

This situation has exposed how incompetent the UK and US governments are.

How selfish their citizens are.

All the death.  Just a bunch of foolish clumsy bunglers a total shameful embarrassment to society and the world.

[tribalfusion001]

13 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

This situation has exposed how incompetent the UK and US governments are.

How selfish their citizens are.

All the death.  Just a bunch of foolish clumsy bunglers a total shameful embarrassment to society and the world.

The protests are morphing into anti-government protests, I even saw people with home made signs saying "this is the revolution". Mostly under 30 and spoiling for a fight, the trouble is there are others in the far right spoiling for a fight too.

[TopDeadSenter]

37 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

I even saw people with home made signs saying "this is the revolution".

Winston Churchill statue desecrated for second day as protesters daub 'racist' on monument

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1292632/Winston-churchill-statue-london-protests-black-lives-matter

 

The real reason for the protests is becoming apparent. Not long now until statues of real historic heros are all torn down completely and replaced with statues of progressive heros like Mark Duggan.

 

 The bright side to all these mass riots is that they can't suddenly claim to be scared to leave home and get back to work. IMO the lockdown was a total mistake, no benefit was gained by it, and we still have the economic consequences to deal with.

[stevenl]

2 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Yep, that might be true. However, that as a government adviser go out and try to look smart with all the facts in hand just makes this guy look stupid.

It makes the guy what he is: an intelligent guy who reflects on facts, decisions made, and realises the correct decisions weren't always made.

[vogie]

1 hour ago, tribalfusion001 said:

The protests are morphing into anti-government protests, I even saw people with home made signs saying "this is the revolution". Mostly under 30 and spoiling for a fight, the trouble is there are others in the far right spoiling for a fight too.

What evidence have you that the "far right" is spoiling for a fight too?

[dexterm]

Congratulations, New Zealand. Breaking news..must be one of the first countries in the world Covid 19 free.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12338111

 

Incompetent Boris only now halfheartedly thinking about doing what NZ govt did 2 months ago.

Edited June 8, 2020 by dexterm

[Phuketshrew]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing ...

[TopDeadSenter]

14 minutes ago, dexterm said:

Congratulations, New Zealand. Breaking news..must be one of the first countries in the world Covid 19 free.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12338111

 

Incompetent Boris only now halfheartedly thinking about doing what NZ govt did 2 months ago.

Yes congrats, so wonderful. So after this victory NZ bombed all their sea ports and airports did they? Because nobody will ever leave NZ again, and nobody will ever arrive at NZ again, no ships, no planes. Any contact with the rest of the world will be too dangerous, seeing as Covid is endemic worldwide. Otherwise NZ achieved absolutely nothing and will get corona infections again when transport services resume, which of course they will. 

 The UK was foolish to lock down, but as we all saw it was straight down political lines. Cummings admitted govt strategy was herd immunity, the left had a meltdown and demanded lockdown and get paid for sitting at home. The right said it's just a bad flu, protect your elderly and let's get on with life. 

[dexterm]

27 minutes ago, Phuketshrew said:

Hindsight is a wonderful thing ...

But intelligent foresight is even better.

 

UK and NZ both island nations. One govt heeded warnings of scientists; the other didn't.

Edited June 8, 2020 by dexterm

[twocatsmac]

3 hours ago, vogie said:

What evidence have you that the "far right" is spoiling for a fight too?

None because there is none, just like there’s no need for BLM protests in the the UK, they already enjoy more privileges than white people. 

Back to op, yes lockdown sooner and only for “at risk” and older people. 

Younger people are hardly affected but again hindsight as the figures weren’t available until too late. 

[Sheryl]

The problem is that until the problem is visible to people, there is no public support for lockdown. And the epidemic is  will continue to exponentially spike for at least 14 days post start of lockdown.

 

Certainly UK should have done it sooner, so should New York. That is totally obvious in hindsight.

 

But if it had been done in a timely manner, the huge detah tolls that followed would nto have happened, infections owuld have bene few, and the public would then question whether the lockdown had been necessary.

 

And the truth is that no one can answer that. A  public health success is something that does nto happen, and indistinguishable from simple good luck.

 

There are other countries that did nto start lockdown any sooner yet had far fewer cases.

 

So policy makers are faced with a choice between:

 

Initiate early measures for which there is little or no popular support and never be able to prove they were necessary

 

vs

 

Wait until when/if it is clearly necessary, in which case there will have been unnecessary lives lost.

[from the home of CC]

23 minutes ago, Phuketshrew said:

Hindsight is a wonderful thing ...

so is betting deaths over dollars..

[dexterm]

7 minutes ago, TopDeadSenter said:

Yes congrats, so wonderful. So after this victory NZ bombed all their sea ports and airports did they? Because nobody will ever leave NZ again, and nobody will ever arrive at NZ again, no ships, no planes. Any contact with the rest of the world will be too dangerous, seeing as Covid is endemic worldwide. Otherwise NZ achieved absolutely nothing and will get corona infections again when transport services resume, which of course they will. 

 The UK was foolish to lock down, but as we all saw it was straight down political lines. Cummings admitted govt strategy was herd immunity, the left had a meltdown and demanded lockdown and get paid for sitting at home. The right said it's just a bad flu, protect your elderly and let's get on with life. 

Lockdown doesn't mean trade ended. Just international tourism affected. I believe NZ will next month open a travel bubble with Australia which is not far behind NZ in covid elimination progress. And similarly as other competent governments open up.

 

When you have the situation under control, that is the time to work outwards all the while controlling, testing, tracking, quarantining any new outbreaks rigorously, containing the problem when it is reduced in size and medical staff can cope.

 

When politicians put the economy and perhaps their re-election chances before the lives of their citizens, they may find their selfish incompetence has been counter productive. Who wants to travel to any country riddled with infections?

[Kadilo]

5 hours ago, transam said:

If you take a look at the photo below of folk not giving a stuff about the virus you will see people doing the right thing in the UK is near nonexistent.

To top it all they are demonstrating over ONE USA cop going over the top.......Flushing crazy...The UK's woodwork is being taken over by low-life....

 

 

 

Thing is they ain’t the same people. 
 

The vast majority have been sticking to the guidelines whether they believe in them or not. They are the ones who are <deleted> off with the Cummings debacle and the subsequent responses. The people who are queuing outside supermarkets in the rain to observe the rules, staying away from family and loved ones. 
 

This crowd from yesterday are the types who sardined on the beach at the first opportunity, the selfish couldn’t give a <deleted> ones. 
 

Trouble is that resolve will now be broken. The two Dicks, Cressida and Boris made it clear last week what the rules were re protesting and said it was unlawful. So what did they do...............nothing. 
 

They have lost all credibility. Cummings first, now this.  So now even the “stay at home and observe the guidelines” majority will be laughing at any ease of restrictions announced this week. 
 

 

[from the home of CC]

other countries provided timely lessons for the west which they didn't bother to acknowledge due to fear of economic distress and you reap what you sow. But to say they didn't know it was coming is assuming people are ignorant, especially when knowledgeable folks in most countries warned those who could of made a difference -  but chose not to due to a misplaced arrogance..

[TopDeadSenter]

6 minutes ago, dexterm said:

Lockdown doesn't mean trade ended. Just international tourism affected. I believe NZ will next month open a travel bubble with Australia which is not far behind NZ in covid elimination progress. And similarly as other competent governments open up.

 

When you have the situation under control, that is the time to work outwards all the while controlling, testing, tracking, quarantining any new outbreaks rigorously, containing the problem when it is reduced in size and medical staff can cope.

 

When politicians put the economy and perhaps their re-election chances before the lives of their citizens, they may find their selfish incompetence has been counter productive. Who wants to travel to any country riddled with infections?

Interesting post, thanks. I have been thinking of your scenario - but it is unworkable. Planes are flown by a flight crew. These people need to rest and be fed and watered, invariably they would come in contact with humans in NZ. Shipping crews are much larger and stay at port longer guaranteeing much more local contact. You can see why this is totally unworkable. The only way NZ can remain corona free is 100% no contact with the outside world.

 Australia will never be corona free, they have boat people still making the crossing from Indonesia. Most of these people are coming from the Arab world where corona is rife. Therefore there will not be an OZ-NZ travel route opening, again unless NZ realized it will inevitably invite corona back onto its shores.

[transam]

5 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Thing is they ain’t the same people. 
 

The vast majority have been sticking to the guidelines whether they believe in them or not. They are the ones who are <deleted> off with the Cummings debacle and the subsequent responses. The people who are queuing outside supermarkets in the rain to observe the rules, staying away from family and loved ones. 
 

This crowd from yesterday are the types who sardined on the beach at the first opportunity, the selfish couldn’t give a <deleted> ones. 
 

Trouble is that resolve will now be broken. The two Dicks, Cressida and Boris made it clear last week what the rules were re protesting and said it was unlawful. So what did they do...............nothing. 
 

They have lost all credibility. Cummings first, now this.  So now even the “stay at home and observe the guidelines” majority will be laughing at any ease of restrictions announced this week. 
 

 

If Boris had done something, regarding the dodgy protests, folk would be screaming on here, there, everywhere, so he cannot win...

When I look at the videos, Downing Street, the police were wearing normal uniforms, not crowd bashing gear, so the scum exploited it...Sadly they didn't pepper spray the lot and send them home to mum...

[Kadilo]

1 minute ago, transam said:

If Boris had done something, regarding the dodgy protests, folk would be screaming on here, there, everywhere, so he cannot win...

When I look at the videos, Downing Street, the police were wearing normal uniforms, not crowd bashing gear, so the scum exploited it...Sadly they didn't pepper spray the lot and send them home to mum...

I agree they were on a hiding to nothing but they have to accept that the decision they made to watch and do nothing will have consequences re Covid. 
 

They either ignore any notion of easing of controls or become a laughing stock. They have shown it is unmanageable and any enforcement from now on will just be deemed as one rule for one and one for another.
Credibility is lost. 

[transam]

Just now, Kadilo said:

I agree they were on a hiding to nothing but they have to accept that the decision they made to watch and do nothing will have consequences re Covid. 
 

They either ignore any notion of easing of controls or become a laughing stock. They have shown it is unmanageable and any enforcement from now on will just be deemed as one rule for one and one for another.
Credibility is lost. 

So what do you reckon the limited number of police should have done with the thousands of protesters.......?

[dexterm]

18 minutes ago, TopDeadSenter said:

Interesting post, thanks. I have been thinking of your scenario - but it is unworkable. Planes are flown by a flight crew. These people need to rest and be fed and watered, invariably they would come in contact with humans in NZ. Shipping crews are much larger and stay at port longer guaranteeing much more local contact. You can see why this is totally unworkable. The only way NZ can remain corona free is 100% no contact with the outside world.

 Australia will never be corona free, they have boat people still making the crossing from Indonesia. Most of these people are coming from the Arab world where corona is rife. Therefore there will not be an OZ-NZ travel route opening, again unless NZ realized it will inevitably invite corona back onto its shores.

Compulsory testing and compulsory quarantining of everyone ... residents, aircrew, the lot. At government expense (in lieu of subsidy to suffering hotel industry). Ban travel to and from countries that refuse to do that.

Then over months/years gradually ratchet down as testing improves, and possible vaccine discovered.

Proof of the pudding - NZ - it worked.

 

No time for a wing and a prayer approach when one's citizens' lives are at stake.

 

Your Indonesian boat people reference is dog whistle racism.

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by dexterm

[Kadilo]

4 minutes ago, transam said:

So what do you reckon the limited number of police should have done with the thousands of protesters.......?

Are you saying they didnt know what the number of demonstrators were going to be? 
 

It was in all the MSM that there would be thousands of protestors, the numbers came as no surprise.  The limited number of Police was a decision they took because they had already decided to do nothing. 

[transam]

1 minute ago, dexterm said:

Compulsory testing and compulsory quarantining of everyone ... residents, aircrew, the lot. At government expense (in lieu of subsidy to suffering hotel industry). Ban travel to and from countries that refuse to do that.

Then over months/years gradually ratchet down as testing improves, and possible vaccine discovered.

Proof of the pudding - NZ - it worked.

 

No time for a wing and a prayer approach when one's citizens' lives are at stake.

 

But NZ stops everything coming into the country, cheese, dirty shoes, people with hair......????

[Baerboxer]

6 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Yep, that might be true. However, that as a government adviser go out and try to look smart with all the facts in hand just makes this guy look stupid.

 

I saw this guy give an interview in which he made the same comments. To be fair, he stressed these comments were retrospective, based on hindsight and on information available at that time.

 

 

[transam]

Just now, Kadilo said:

Are you saying they didnt know what the number of demonstrators were going to be? 
 

It was in all the MSM that there would be thousands of protestors, the numbers came as no surprise.  The limited number of Police was a decision they took because they had already decided to do nothing. 

Do they know who gets out of bed, do they need cops to do normal duties, do they know how many scrotes will attack police in a peaceful protest....Naaaaaaaaah.....

Finger pointing........If folk are that worried then get the army out to bolster stuff......

But wait, that would be wrong too................????

[PETERTHEEATER]

7 hours ago, stouricks said:

Hey, it's only TODAY that face masks are now mandatory.

Er,.....no. Mandatory on 15 June 20 on public transport.