Good time to buy or wait?

[DrJack54]

Prior to covid, I was already planning a purchase. First up I have always stated never buy real estate in Thailand.

This bit unusual. Been here 7 yr same Thai partner. Had been looking into ways to gift her ~4 mil when I'm gone. Problem with some (most) Thai the cash can tend to slip away. So I'm leaning towards putting property into her name. Most likely a detached property not something in gated community. She has seen first hand of my rentals in Oz that owning a property does not mean you need live it, can just rent it out.

So my question is buy now or hold off till later?

Please guys I don't need advice about you will lose the money etc. I have no issue with that and can afford it. 

[jakow]

The big banks are saying they're expecting to enter a recession, so personally I'm going to wait at least 6 months and see how things are looking.

[bkk6060]

Who knows when and where in a non transparent RE market.  Although you are looking for a house, I just read today that there are over 100,000 condo properties for sale in Bangkok.   Pattaya has over 20,000.

So, look around and make some very low offers. I would start at 50% below asking price and negotiate from there.  Maybe have the seller carry back paper for 7 years at a low or zero interest rate that way not all your cash is immediately tied up in the place.

Definitely a buyers market so things are in your favor.

Good luck.

Edited June 10, 2020 by bkk6060

[worgeordie]

Wait, but keep looking

regards worgeordie

[DrJack54]

32 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Maybe have the seller carry back paper for 7 years at a low or zero interest rate that way not all your cash is immediately tied up in the place.

Definitely a buyers market so things are in your favor

Thanks. Seems good advice.

Hope this doesn't sound like a brag. Far from my intention. I'm we'll set up and will pay cash. This next comment is more related to banks and financial generally.

I had April fixed term deposit in Oz mature April. 500k aud. It was @ 2.65%. The rollover offer was 1%.

Opportunity cost now is zip.

I think it's more if prices here will fall enough to justify buy later and more so exchange rates. In my case aud is bit of speculative currency. However Thai gov seem to be keen to have baht slide a bit.

[scubascuba3]

It's a good time to buy if you can find a good discount, if not then it's a bad time to buy with all the uncertainty. I don't think condos are dropping enough yet, i have seen some houses on facebook with reductions

[DrJack54]

9 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

It's a good time to buy if you can find a good discount, if not then it's a bad time to buy with all the uncertainty. I don't think condos are dropping enough yet, i have seen some houses on facebook with reductions

Dumb question I know.....what do I type in Facebook search ...."houses for sale Bangkok"?

On side comment, using the internet to look for property in Thailand, I have found it difficult. The exact address is rarely given, often the pictures are just rubbish. 

The real estate sites in Oz (along with most countries, I would think) are fantastic. Includes exact map re location, past sales and rental history etc etc.

 

[mr mr]

11 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

Please guys I don't need advice about you will lose the money etc. I have no issue with that and can afford it.

no advice just a simple offer.

 

just give me the money i'll kick you in the balls and you'll feel the same as you will when you get punked.

[Mama Noodle]

Its been my experience that finding a 'deal' on a property is a matter of finding someone desperate, which is rare, and thais whether it be land, homes, or condos will just ask for a high price and hold it for 10 years if they have to in order to get it. 

[baansgr]

Surprisingly the "gated communities" upmarket houses that rent for 60k a month upwards are/were in high demand....the lower end 17k-30k are two a penny and tend to struggle finding a tenant...just something to bear in mind. That is Pattaya region. If it's soley for rental, try finding a property with a long term sitting tenant.

[sirineou]

There is no time as the present. Sure perhaps you might save some money in a couple of years .

Who knows,

Live  your life now !! saving some money is nice, but so is two years of enjoyment and happiness with you lady.  

[scubascuba3]

3 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

Dumb question I know.....what do I type in Facebook search ...."houses for sale Bangkok"?

On side comment, using the internet to look for property in Thailand, I have found it difficult. The exact address is rarely given, often the pictures are just rubbish. 

The real estate sites in Oz (along with most countries, I would think) are fantastic. Includes exact map re location, past sales and rental history etc etc.

 

In facebook go into Marketplace then search then Property for sale category, then you can select filters. It seems to be easier using desktop rather than the app. Also add all the Pattaya property buy sell groups and they will appear in your feed everyday. Facebook is trial and error, just play about with it, you don't need to bother with the friend nonsense

[carlyai]

Great time to buy and a much overlooked part of Pattaya City is Suksabai Villa.

It doesn't look that much but it must go as is the only way the city can expand and just be a 20 min walk into walking street.

Don't buy lower than the Land department office as that area floods.

A lot of construction stopped in Suksabai Villa when the army took over, but the two approved condos will go when the time is right, then buying there will be too late.

If you drive down behind the Caddie Shack restaurant you will see the size and style of houses that will continue. 

[sexyman]

Try hipflat or renthub, those sites give you a fair idea of prices.

[1FinickyOne]

9 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

The real estate sites in Oz (along with most countries, I would think) are fantastic

I think the reason that some of the information is vague is that unlike most Western places, it is rare that an agent is given an exclusive. 

 

It has been a buyer's market for a long time and often that has merely meant that there were a lot of properties on the market, not so much a compromise or a meeting of a real market price. Until the owner wants to drop the price to a reasonable point, it likely will not sell, but I have seen when people do drop the price, it sells quickly... so, you are of course best to take the time and learn the market in the area you want to buy... 

 

Also, since this is pretty much a gift - get some feedback from the lady... not everyone wants to be a landlord.. it can be a real pain. If you are not planning on living there, there might be better investments, like gold or vacant land... land appreciates, buildings depreciate... 

 

I have a lot of experience w/these types of investment/gifts... mostly at first we bought farmland for the family to make a living... though we recently bought a nice home that had been reduced in price about 35%... when the owner needs to sell, it becomes a different game...

 

if you need any further info, you can PM. - - glad to help if I can. 

[1FinickyOne]

8 hours ago, sirineou said:

There is no time as the present.

sure, its a real gift... unless you have a migraine. 

[DrJack54]

3 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

 

if you need any further info, you can PM. - - glad to help if I can. 

Thank you for that offer and may take it up. Ta.

You made several good points. For sure I won't rush. We will remain central Bangkok for the foreseeable future. She is bkk born and with or without me would be living in bkk.

For anyone looking at buying (and this is stating the obvious) the future bts mrt lines are worth considering. I spent time looking for maps that are exact. Googled stuff such as "future mrt lines Bangkok.

Lucky to eventually find a blog "Greg to differ". There is excellent map that somehow attaches to your Google map. It remains so future searches already has the new lines on it. Anyway as you search for re estate, makes it very easy to see how far any property will be from current and future lines. 

I understand the point you make about multiple listings. Heck it makes it hard to see if your interested when just general area is and not address.

 

[natway09]

I thought this post may have bought out more soothsayers, only one so take care your nuts.

Yes, it is a great time to look seriously at something that really fits the bill, but you need to talk to your love about "for her to live" or to rent as they are normally two different beasts.

Do not be in too much of a rush & if see something that looks to good to be true it probably is.

I backed out of a near deal last year as a result of finding out of a "non effective" Juristic committee

Good Luck & remember Caveat Mentor

[NightSky]

I know of a nice discounted detached property in central bkk. The people want to sell up and move out. It’s 5 years old well kept property. If you want more details by pm let me know.

 

its a good deal considering the value. Being sold at reduced price for quick sale.

Edited June 11, 2020 by NightSky

[Darkside Gray]

It is never a good time to buy as your resale value will be terrible if you can sell!

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

makes it very easy to see how far any property will be from current and future lines. 

then the owners already know too and worse than actual values is people w/expectations... usually 2x reality... 

 

the homework here is going out and looking at lots of listings in the area you want to be and a good gauge is to ask how long the property has been on the market... there is no substitute for knowledge... you might even find an agent w/some common sense who understands what you are looking for and might know which seller is motivated... 

[Antonymous]

Dr Jack, I suggest you should not limit yourself just to houses and condos. Empty land appreciates at a much faster rate and will ultimately give you (your lady) more capital appreciation.

 

If you want to produce an income, then buy a house/condo/commercial property to rent, but bear in mind the headaches that managing your investment may bring.

 

If you want to maximise your ROI (for your lady), consider buying land and holding it for ten years or more. I've lived in LOS for 30 years and have constantly kept my eyes open for the best long term investments for my 'spare cash'. I tried various routes in the past including the SET and gold with limited success. Houses, as another poster pointed out, are really not good investments. They need maintenance, are difficult to sell the older they get and hardly appreciate in value at all, unless they sit of a valuable plot of land. That's the key. It became clear as day to me that land produced the most steady and safe return over the long term.

 

So I have been investing in good quality farmland (different plots) and have enjoyed compound capital growth averaging 15% a year. That's very hard to beat. You can of course rent out your land if you wish, or grow trees or crops to produce a small income, on top of the capital gain.

 

TV members will cry out that as a farang you can't own land in Thailand and that's true. But in your case (as mine) you have a Thai partner who you love and want to take care of and you can also afford to lose the money if your relationship happens to turn sour. Perfect. So put the land in her name with no encumbrances.

 

 

 

[Caine]

12 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

Its been my experience that finding a 'deal' on a property is a matter of finding someone desperate, which is rare, and thais whether it be land, homes, or condos will just ask for a high price and hold it for 10 years if they have to in order to get it. 

10yrs ? by which time most condos will be falling down. Or fallen into disrepaired  slums.

[sirineou]

2 hours ago, kenk24 said:

sure, its a real gift... unless you have a migraine. 

The problem is, you don't know what you are going to get ,until  you get it . and in defending against "migrains" you miss out on life. The Op decided he is going to do it, he has his reasons, I say "do it now" no time line the present which is the only thing that truly exists .

[newnative]

7 minutes ago, Caine said:

10yrs ? by which time most condos will be falling down. Or fallen into disrepaired  slums.

Rubbish.

[newnative]

1 hour ago, Darkside Gray said:

It is never a good time to buy as your resale value will be terrible if you can sell!

Rubbish.

[Lacessit]

On 6/10/2020 at 6:25 PM, DrJack54 said:

Thanks. Seems good advice.

Hope this doesn't sound like a brag. Far from my intention. I'm we'll set up and will pay cash. This next comment is more related to banks and financial generally.

I had April fixed term deposit in Oz mature April. 500k aud. It was @ 2.65%. The rollover offer was 1%.

Opportunity cost now is zip.

I think it's more if prices here will fall enough to justify buy later and more so exchange rates. In my case aud is bit of speculative currency. However Thai gov seem to be keen to have baht slide a bit.

Have you thought of investigating peer-to-peer lending? Ratesetter.com.au is currently offering anywhere between 2.5 and 6% on a one month rolling deposit. 6 - 7% on 3 - 5 year terms.

If it's for your Thai GF/wife, buy Thai condos. 300K to 500K baht, income from each unit 2-3K baht/ month. The old saying about not putting all your eggs in one basket.

[madmen]

6 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Have you thought of investigating peer-to-peer lending? Ratesetter.com.au is currently offering anywhere between 2.5 and 6% on a one month rolling deposit. 6 - 7% on 3 - 5 year terms.

If it's for your Thai GF/wife, buy Thai condos. 300K to 500K baht, income from each unit 2-3K baht/ month. The old saying about not putting all your eggs in one basket.

"Disclaimer: Investments made through a P2P lending platform are not protected and are subject to risks including credit risk (defaults) and liquidity risk. These investments are not subject to review by theAustralian Financial Complaints Authority."

 

good luck with that.

[Artben]

Your basic idea has merit but trying to time the market is usually a fools game.  Somewhere in your area there is someone who, for various reasons, has to sell quickly.  Start spreading the word that you are looking to acquire property and be ready to move when you find the right deal.  You may find it tomorrow or next week, next month or next year but it will NEVER happen if you don't start.  Above all, don't take financial advice from anyone who is not financially successful.  

[Mulambana]

If you're buying in your GF's name, there are many excellent deal I assume. I read few articles that lots of developers are giving great discount on condo sales. Seems like a two bedroom condo is in your budget. I think this is a good time to buy becuase once the economy picks up (assume 18-months) and there is a rush of Chinese buyers, prices will start to climb. 

Edited June 11, 2020 by Mulambana