AOT expects flights, passengers to return to 2019 levels only in 2022

[bkk75]

33 minutes ago, Gary Maneval said:

This is all very sad and ridiculous.  People die every day.  Over 6,000 so far on Thai roadways.  No provisions for that.  Thousands die of other reasons.  No provisions for that.  But hey, lets go stupid when it comes to a Virus.  It is not just Thailand.  The world has gone completely beserk over this.  I don't want to die, but I would like to live "a little".  The Virus is to be taken serious, of course, but so is the carnage on the highways, the motor bikes, etc.  Does anyone have a clue??????

Gary you are very welcome to move wherever you wish.  Why not Switzerland...there's no lockdown there.  The United States is also a good option.  Live little and die situation there right now since this virus is seen as nothing more than a hoax according to POTUS.

Edited June 19, 2020 by bkk75

[ThailandRyan]

38 minutes ago, Gary Maneval said:

This is all very sad and ridiculous.  People die every day.  Over 6,000 so far on Thai roadways.  No provisions for that.  Thousands die of other reasons.  No provisions for that.  But hey, lets go stupid when it comes to a Virus.  It is not just Thailand.  The world has gone completely beserk over this.  I don't want to die, but I would like to live "a little".  The Virus is to be taken serious, of course, but so is the carnage on the highways, the motor bikes, etc.  Does anyone have a clue??????

Just what does the plight of the highways have to do with AOT and there forecast?  No one will be driving or riding to Thailand, nor will there be an increase on the roads from those travelers.  Domestic travel has always been an issue.  Thai drivers do not even follow their own laws and rules and the RTP does not enforce the laws with uniformity.  Lets get back on the OP topic.

 

AOT and its projections seem to have covered the issues they see such as the second wave possibility and such and is why I think they are spot on with there estimate.

Edited June 19, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Scott Tracy]

AOT, publicly traded, yes. Government owns 70% of the shares. Not a state owned company?

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Huckenfell said:

OMG!  i recently had to spend 4 days in a "so called  4* hotel" at Swampy. It was bloody awful, no restaurants, just the swill available at their   No star restaurant.

 

Tell us why you just HAD to Stay there?

[tomauasia]

Only Thailand are country destroyers. If Thaksin here airport already operating. Bad racist government..l think we need to stop funding this country 

[geriatrickid]

17 hours ago, Swimfan said:

Why is it only Thailand has a crystal ball. It not fair 

The position is consistent with  the industry consensus around the world.

 

17 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

It's not good news for visitors to Thailand including this poster.

No one will come with quarantine in place.

No one.

A vaccine is anything but a certainty.

So what's plan B? Close your borders?

No problem. All tourist areas will become wastelands. Hotels/bars/restaurants will close. Owners will hand back keys and get out of Thailand, never to return, as soon as possible.

Do yourselves a favour in the meantime business owners, stop feeding their citizens. Your being played for mugs.

This really isn't about Thailand. Many countries are aware of what occurred and do not wish to see the pandemic surge to life again. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and many other countries  were infected because of their own travelers. There is a reason why many borders are still closed.

 

33 minutes ago, Gary Maneval said:

This is all very sad and ridiculous.  People die every day.  Over 6,000 so far on Thai roadways.  No provisions for that.  Thousands die of other reasons.  No provisions for that.  But hey, lets go stupid when it comes to a Virus.  It is not just Thailand.  The world has gone completely beserk over this.  I don't want to die, but I would like to live "a little".  The Virus is to be taken serious, of course, but so is the carnage on the highways, the motor bikes, etc.  Does anyone have a clue??????

Go stupid with a virus? What do you know about the virus? How many times does it have to be explained that the  deaths are the easy part of the pandemic. It's the cost of the infections and the chronic conditions  that are incurred.  Covid 19 hospitalization can stretch out  to 30+ days with 20-30% in an ICU. The infections are like any other infectious disease in a hospital and force the  curtailment of procedures.  You cannot function as a hospital if you are burdened with  large numbers of highly infectious patients.

Are you aware that Covid19 infection can  leave permanent lung damage and is an inflammation of the circulatory  system? Are you aware  of how long it takes patients to recover, even when they are not hospitalized? This is a very expensive infection.

[eeworldwide]

Imagine flying to Thailand from the UK on a plane where your ticket is at least twice the price because of social distancing rules.

 

Then you have to quarantine when you land, and then your fun activities are restricted because of social distancing rules.

 

Then you have to keep registering to get in and out of shops and malls.

And there are no nightclubs (if you're in that demographic)

And then when it's all over you arrive back home in the UK and have to quarantine again.

 

Not gonna happen.

An a vaccine?!

 

No chance. They've been trying for years to get a vaccine for other corona viruses, why should this one be any different?

[tomauasia]

3 hours ago, realfunster said:

it’s already happening, my Thai colleague showed me a list of Bangkok hotels up for sale (including some ‘big’ names) sure it is the same (or worse) in Phuket, Samui etc.

 

going to be a big reset for the tourist industry, with a lot of pain along the way.

 

Time for the government to make serious efforts in developing a broader and more open economy to support their citizens livelihoods. Already seen loosening of foreign ownership restrictions for aviation, would not be surprised to see that widen into other sectors to stimulate further investment.  The Thai billionaire oligarchs should take a step back and allow a more open market.

as for International tourism, I hope it comes back in a more sustainable and improved form, but I expect they will simply go back to mass market as that is the path of least resistance.

 

Have you not got the message. This fake gov doesn't want white tourists and will delay until China has given them there next orders. Who cares about poor Thais. China are the worst country should be blocked at all costs.. This is a hiso <deleted> gov that has destroyed the Thai economy. And they will destroy the country. All airport should be open right now. Even 2 COVID tests before departure. Early and late. There is no reason for any forced quarantine. Speak to each tourists on arrival. Jail and fines. Tourists will understand.

They just don't want anybody. Boycott Thailand 

Edited June 19, 2020 by tomauasia

[tomauasia]

10 minutes ago, eeworldwide said:

Imagine flying to Thailand from the UK on a plane where your ticket is at least twice the price because of social distancing rules.

 

Then you have to quarantine when you land, and then your fun activities are restricted because of social distancing rules.

 

Then you have to keep registering to get in and out of shops and malls.

And there are no nightclubs (if you're in that demographic)

And then when it's all over you arrive back home in the UK and have to quarantine again.

 

Not gonna happen.

An a vaccine?!

 

No chance. They've been trying for years to get a vaccine for other corona viruses, why should this one be any different?

They are embeciles 

[Huckenfell]

14 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Tell us why you just HAD to Stay there?

Because my next flight was not out for 4 days and this was the only accommodation  apart from 5 star that i could get.  Is my answer satisfactory ? Incidentially , my stay was extended by 1 more night as Qatar Air cancelled the first flight.

 

[scorecard]

23 minutes ago, Huckenfell said:

OMG!  i recently had to spend 4 days in a "so called  4* hotel" at Swampy. It was bloody awful, no restaurants, just the swill available at their   No star restaurant.

 

How many Baht per day for full accommodation?

 

you mention 4 days, were you in quarantine or???

 

 

[Huckenfell]

15 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

The position is consistent with  the industry consensus around the world.

 

This really isn't about Thailand. Many countries are aware of what occurred and do not wish to see the pandemic surge to life again. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and many other countries  were infected because of their own travelers. There is a reason why many borders are still closed.

 

Go stupid with a virus? What do you know about the virus? How many times does it have to be explained that the  deaths are the easy part of the pandemic. It's the cost of the infections and the chronic conditions  that are incurred.  Covid 19 hospitalization can stretch out  to 30+ days with 20-30% in an ICU. The infections are like any other infectious disease in a hospital and force the  curtailment of procedures.  You cannot function as a hospital if you are burdened with  large numbers of highly infectious patients.

Are you aware that Covid19 infection can  leave permanent lung damage and is an inflammation of the circulatory  system? Are you aware  of how long it takes patients to recover, even when they are not hospitalized? This is a very expensive infection.

GAKid  Can i remind you that the last 2 infected travellers into NZ were allowed in from the UK

[Huckenfell]

1 minute ago, scorecard said:

How many Baht per day for full accommodation?

 

you mention 4 days, were you in quarantine or???

 

 

No , this was in May and when i reached Brisbane from a very round-about long distant flight i was put into isolation at the Brisbane Marriot at the expense of the Aussie govt.   The hotel in BKK was Bht700 per night , food extra.

 

[scorecard]

2 hours ago, realfunster said:

it’s already happening, my Thai colleague showed me a list of Bangkok hotels up for sale (including some ‘big’ names) sure it is the same (or worse) in Phuket, Samui etc.

 

going to be a big reset for the tourist industry, with a lot of pain along the way.

 

Time for the government to make serious efforts in developing a broader and more open economy to support their citizens livelihoods. Already seen loosening of foreign ownership restrictions for aviation, would not be surprised to see that widen into other sectors to stimulate further investment.  The Thai billionaire oligarchs should take a step back and allow a more open market.

as for International tourism, I hope it comes back in a more sustainable and improved form, but I expect they will simply go back to mass market as that is the path of least resistance.

 

From above:  "... going to be a big reset for the tourist industry, with a lot of pain along the way."

 

So I wonder how much work tourist associations etc., have put into suggesting an acceptable alternative to the current 14 days quarantine arrangements. And/or have they done any up to date research to check if the global/Thai medical experts still say 14 days or has it maybe reduced to 7 days. 5 days etc??? Or are the global medical experts now suggesting other methods of testing, etc etc?

[scorecard]

1 minute ago, Huckenfell said:

No , this was in May and when i reached Brisbane from a very round-about long distant flight i was put into isolation at the Brisbane Marriot at the expense of the Aussie govt.   The hotel in BKK was Bht700 per night , food extra.

 

Do you mean quarantine hotel in Bkk, would you please share the name/location of the hotel, thanks. 

 

[tomauasia]

20 hours ago, ThaiPauly said:

This is NOT good news for Thailand

Its great news for the army gov. They want only Chinese and there bubble is bin worthy. We should all accomadate them and boycott the country 

[tomauasia]

28 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

The position is consistent with  the industry consensus around the world.

 

This really isn't about Thailand. Many countries are aware of what occurred and do not wish to see the pandemic surge to life again. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and many other countries  were infected because of their own travelers. There is a reason why many borders are still closed.

 

Go stupid with a virus? What do you know about the virus? How many times does it have to be explained that the  deaths are the easy part of the pandemic. It's the cost of the infections and the chronic conditions  that are incurred.  Covid 19 hospitalization can stretch out  to 30+ days with 20-30% in an ICU. The infections are like any other infectious disease in a hospital and force the  curtailment of procedures.  You cannot function as a hospital if you are burdened with  large numbers of highly infectious patients.

Are you aware that Covid19 infection can  leave permanent lung damage and is an inflammation of the circulatory  system? Are you aware  of how long it takes patients to recover, even when they are not hospitalized? This is a very expensive infection.

Bla bla bla rubbish talk. Has no effect on intelligent tested tourists. You give a aspro a headache 

[Mywayboy]

20 hours ago, ThaiPauly said:

This is NOT good news for Thailand

As optimistic as usual I'm sure AOT can fudge the figures lol

[overherebc]

Too many ifs in the equation at the moment for anyone to say what's going to happen in the next few months never mind in two years time.

Edited June 19, 2020 by overherebc

[Elkski]

I remember when the first estimates TAT was saying was there would be a reduction to 30 million Travelers this year.  

 

I've  been thinking a lot on how would this 72 hour health certificate work?   so I need to take my test at 5 days because it takes 2 days to get results in America right now, so at 72 hours before my flight my doctor sends me a medical certificate. But I would not want to have non-refundable airfare or any hotels or tours anywhere in Thailand that are not 100% refundable so I hope all the hotels and tourist reservations such as dive trips,  etc,  and airlines are allowing for free cancellations at 48 hours prior.  No way would I do a solo 14 day isolation  in a hotel room then 14 days upon return.    and what your home country  wants a 72 health  certificate.  There's going to be testing and doctors available in Thailand and what if you test positive and can't return home?  Basically without a vaccine, which also is unlikely to remain effective as this virus will mutate,   the world is screwed.  I think sponsor money is going to dry up as more men realize this situation

[P100]

The tourism sector will never return to the known normal. After Chinese Corona there will be a new normal. More distance, more precautions, smaller crowds, etc.

 

And some idiots in Thai government will go on doing their racist and xenophobic thing and tourists will take more notice of that.

 

I believe Chinese Corona was a game changer. After it will start a hard competition among tourist drstinations. Thailnd can no longer take for granted the farang money in abundance. Where there is a need, therw will be a solution too: China will start heavily investing in industry/production, tourismand farming Chinatowns will be more and more. Chinese will come and permanently live there, the government, hungry for Chinese money, will let them occupy entire regions for lifetime or 99 years, "develop" them. China taking over Thailand gradually, not different to Laos. Thai identity will get a significant blow, what many wars with neighbouring countries didn't do (because Thai were the stronger) now China will do, intrude and change Thai culture and society.

 

When? During the thext 10 years or maybe just 5...

Where? Everywhere, Isan for farming, other regions for industry, other regions for tourism.

 

 

Edited June 19, 2020 by P100

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, Huckenfell said:

Only one problem. The second wave hitting China. I wonder if  TOT have heard of this yet.

 

No, because it hasn't.

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1192076.shtml

[skorp13]

I really love the beginning of the paragraph where it states such estimates are based on assumptions 555

[NoshowJones]

19 hours ago, SoilSpoil said:

No problem, as the high speed rail network with China was supposed to be ready by the end of this year. They will come, in tens of millions, by train.

I wonder if the trains will have toilets in them. 

Edited June 19, 2020 by possum1931

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Huckenfell said:

Because my next flight was not out for 4 days and this was the only accommodation  apart from 5 star that i could get.  Is my answer satisfactory ? Incidentially , my stay was extended by 1 more night as Qatar Air cancelled the first flight.

 

Got it, thought maybe you just liked staying near the airport for other reasons.

[Mr Meeseeks]

31 minutes ago, P100 said:

The tourism sector will never return to the known normal. After Chinese Corona there will be a new normal. More distance, more precautions, smaller crowds, etc.

 

And some idiots in Thai government will go on doing their racist and xenophobic thing and tourists will take more notice of that.

 

I believe Chinese Corona was a game changer. After it will start a hard competition among tourist drstinations. Thailnd can no longer take for granted the farang money in abundance. Where there is a need, therw will be a solution too: China will start heavily investing in industry/production, tourismand farming Chinatowns will be more and more. Chinese will come and permanently live there, the government, hungry for Chinese money, will let them occupy entire regions for lifetime or 99 years, "develop" them. China taking over Thailand gradually, not different to Laos. Thai identity will get a significant blow, what many wars with neighbouring countries didn't do (because Thai were the stronger) now China will do, intrude and change Thai culture and society.

 

When? During the thext 10 years or maybe just 5...

Where? Everywhere, Isan for farming, other regions for industry, other regions for tourism.

 

 

No, this is not Cambodia, sorry.

[NoshowJones]

1 hour ago, Peterw42 said:

The difference being, you cant catch a road accident or most of the other ways people die, they are not contagious. Other forms of death dont grow exponentially, 2 dead today, 4 dead tomorrow, 8 the next day etc.

Most years the road death toll is similar to the year before etc, its not doubling every 2-3 days as covid does, if no action is taken..

No, but the government can do plenty to cut down on the road carnage, but they won't. but they go daft over a Chinese flu and bankrupt the whole country and put millions out of work.

[PETERTHEEATER]

19 hours ago, SoilSpoil said:

No problem, as the high speed rail network with China was supposed to be ready by the end of this year. They will come, in tens of millions, by train.

In view of the changes forced by COVID19 consideration is being given to cancelling the high speed train system and, instead, building two conveyor belts which will feed in a steady supply of tourists and return them at the same rate after their holiday. The submarines may be used for VIPs.

[djuiiy]

20 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

It's not good news for visitors to Thailand including this poster.

No one will come with quarantine in place.

No one.

i'm out of work and have no financial responsibilities. Whats the difference with sitting in the quarantine conditions of my bedroom for months and the condtions of a thai quarantine compound?
Given that I'd have the pick of all the best things on offer in Pattaya after my 2 weeks in Q, then yes I'd do the time so i could then commit the .....

[ThailandRyan]

Thailand to turn away from mass tourism, target the wealthy

Headline in the paper that we can not name.  Looks like they are going Hi-Brow now.  It would fit into place with the keeping things under control after all.  Would not want Lo-Brow mixing with the upper crust...Once the country’s borders are reopened and so-called travel bubbles are agreed upon, marketing efforts will be geared toward wealthier individuals who want holidays with minimal risks.

Edited June 19, 2020 by ThailandRyan