Evidence now suggests herd immunity likely impossible without a vaccine

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

How successful flu vaccines are, has no influence on how successful a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine might be. Different virus types and different vaccine development parameters.

 

As to nobody having made a successful coronavirus vaccine previously, that's a bit of a red herring. There has never been a high enough level of medical necessity or financial resources going into the development of a coronavirus vaccine before. The common cold coronaviruses are not lethal enough, SARS died out (and the funding dried up) before a vaccine could be finalised and MERS remains limited in both geographical spread and number of fatalities (less than 200 per year on average) so again, not a massive, massive priority in global terms. Despite that, a MERS vaccine which has come through all its previous development steps with flying colours, is currently undergoing testing in Saudi Arabia and may eventually prove successful.

Perhaps they will invent a working and safe vaccine within a year or two, but given the 8 billion and rapidly increasing population, WHO is going to be given it? No doubt the rich west will be the first, but even then, will the poor get a look in? A vaccine being available will, IMO, only lead to a political uproar as it can't possibly be given to everyone in a short period and all the fearful people will be demanding their dose.

[partington]

On 7/20/2020 at 2:54 AM, cmarshall said:

You are assuming that without the immunosuppressive proteins attached to sabotage the result, there is some other Sars-Cov2 protein that, when delivered in a vaccine, will stimulate a lasting immune response. But how do we know that?  We only know they haven't found one yet.

 

The SARS pandemic began on Nov. 16, 2002 with the last new cases reported in May, 2004, a total of 17 months compared to the probably 8 months so far of Sars-Cov2 and that was 16 years ago.  The SARS virus has not been eradicated and could still break out again.  If work on a MERS virus has continued after its suppression, work may also have continued against SARS which killed many more people, but we don't hear of any success.  The history of vaccine efforts against coronaviruses is not dispositive, but neither is it encouraging.

 

The first successful vaccine against any coronavirus will establish proof of concept.  Until then there is no scientific basis to expect a successful vaccine against Sars-Cov2.  Certainly not enough to base current public policy on it.  If every disease were susceptible to a vaccine, we wouldn't have to worrry about HIV, malaria, and dengue among other diseases without vaccines that have large affected populations with the concomitant economic incentives.

 

The Oxford Group Vaccine triggers robust immune responses against the Covid-19 causing virus, persisting for at least 56 days, with the antibodies produced in human subjects demonstrated to prevent infection of cells by SARS CoV-2 in tissue culture experiments.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext

 

The idea that a vaccine against Sars CoV-2 will not be able to produce a strong immune response can now be consigned to the garbage bin, and this is may also be the most apt destination for Dr Haseltine's blogs.

 

Note: it is of course true that without actual clinical trials it is not known  yet whether this vaccine will actually work to either prevent infection or reduce severity of the disease. However the contention that a vaccine against Sars CoV-2 cannot induce a strong immune response is dead.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by partington

[J Town]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps they will invent a working and safe vaccine within a year or two, but given the 8 billion and rapidly increasing population, WHO is going to be given it? No doubt the rich west will be the first, <snip>

We can't make that assumption any more. The US set itself apart from the rest of the world by cornering the global market of remdesivir in an astonishingly selfish move. No other country will be able to buy remdesivir, which can help recovery from Covid-19, for next three months at least. That won't go unnoticed nor forgotten.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug

[GroveHillWanderer]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps they will invent a working and safe vaccine within a year or two, but given the 8 billion and rapidly increasing population, WHO is going to be given it? No doubt the rich west will be the first, but even then, will the poor get a look in? A vaccine being available will, IMO, only lead to a political uproar as it can't possibly be given to everyone in a short period and all the fearful people will be demanding their dose.

Several of the vaccine developers/manufacturers, including the Oxford/Astra Zeneca and Johnson & Johnson groups have officially and publicly committed to distributing their vaccine on a non-profit basis (if and when approved). Unfortunately others, such as Moderna and Merck have said they will not distribute their vaccines at cost, however.

 

Below is an extract of the Serum Institute of India's plans for the 1 billion vaccine doses it intends to produce this year.

 

Quote

At the beginning of June, AzstraZeneca and Serum Institute of India (SII) had reached a licensing agreement to supply 1 billion doses of the Oxford University vaccine candidate against Covid-19 to middle and low-income countries, including India.

 

Here's a link to essentially the same announcement (lost the original source for the quote above).

Quote

CoVid-19 vaccine Serum Institute of India

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by GroveHillWanderer

[cmarshall]

On 7/16/2020 at 12:38 AM, cmarshall said:

In the past some viruses have probably evolved toward non-lethality, such as a chicken pox and measles.  It is likely to be an evolutionary benefit to the virus to become non-lethal, but only under certain conditions. 

The New York Times has an interesting article today about a theory that smallpox may have evolved over time to be more lethal, based on the discovery of some Viking-era smallpox virus DNA.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/science/smallpox-vikings-genetics.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Science

[checkered flag]

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

The New York Times has an interesting article today about a theory that smallpox may have evolved over time to be more lethal, based on the discovery of some Viking-era smallpox virus DNA.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/science/smallpox-vikings-genetics.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Science

I thought you were a well accomplished virologist and read numerous scientific journals, Reading the NYT as a source, especially on a daily basis must make you all knowing and diverse in thought. An article might be true but the validity of this paper is very low. 

[Heppinger]

On 7/18/2020 at 9:44 PM, rabas said:

Most common colds are not caused by coronavirus. 

Never said they were, though the facts are that coronavirus in humans can include some cases of the common cold. The point is if you weren't pooing your pants over SARS in 2003, then it's a little silly getting all hysterical over coronavirus. 

[connda]

On 7/16/2020 at 3:32 AM, Jingthing said:

The idea of natural herd immunity presumes that getting infected and recovering means you are  now immune to a good degree and for a long period of time.

Thank God this killer virus didn't come along 100 years ago. 
Humanity would have been wiped out by a virus that circumvents all know human immunological defenses.  Corona would have been an extinction event.  But Bill Gates will save us all!  Thank God in Heaven for Bill, Big Pharma, and vaccines!!!
We're saved!!!

[Heppinger]

8 minutes ago, connda said:

Thank God this killer virus didn't come along 100 years ago. 
Humanity would have been wiped out by a virus that circumvents all know human immunological defenses.  Corona would have been an extinction event.  But Bill Gates will save us all!  Thank God in Heaven for Bill, Big Pharma, and vaccines!!!
We're saved!!!

YAY, i too thank the baphomet goat god, and cant wait to receive more mercury filled vaccines from Bill and his transgender wife.

[Jingthing]

24 minutes ago, connda said:

Thank God this killer virus didn't come along 100 years ago. 
Humanity would have been wiped out by a virus that circumvents all know human immunological defenses.  Corona would have been an extinction event.  But Bill Gates will save us all!  Thank God in Heaven for Bill, Big Pharma, and vaccines!!!
We're saved!!!

Well the USA flu of 1918 to 1920 was more of a killer than the novel coronavirus and humanity survived. Nobody is saying this virus is any kind of extinction event. Vaccine or not.

Edited July 27, 2020 by Jingthing

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Heppinger said:

On 7/18/2020 at 6:44 PM, rabas said:

Most common colds are not caused by coronavirus. 

Never said they were, though the facts are that coronavirus in humans can include some cases of the common cold. The point is if you weren't pooing your pants over SARS in 2003, then it's a little silly getting all hysterical over coronavirus. 

30% of common colds are coronaviruses but not the same type as SARS and SARS2 because they don't attack ACE2 receptors. ACE2 is your ticket to understanding what man may face. ACE2 is located throughout the body in many critical organs, which SARS2 attacks resulting in countless horror stories from survivors. No thank you. Also, the wider it spreads the greater chance it could further adapt.

 

As for poo, I have a picture of me and my wife standing alone in Singapore's Changi Airport without a soul as far as the eye could see during SARS. They understood the potential of a SARS type virus.

 

So better turd than herd.

[checkered flag]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

Well the USA flu of 1918 to 1920 was more of a killer than the novel coronavirus and humanity survived. Nobody is saying this virus is any kind of extinction event. Vaccine or not.

You can't play both sides, sorry. A few days ago you were saying the sky was falling. Have you had a revelation. If no vaccine then it's herd immunity. If a vaccine then vaccine immunity plus herd immunity.

[Heppinger]

12 minutes ago, rabas said:

30% of common colds are coronaviruses but not the same type as SARS and SARS2 because they don't attack ACE2 receptors. ACE2 is your ticket to understanding what man may face. ACE2 is located throughout the body in many critical organs, which SARS2 attacks resulting in countless horror stories from survivors. No thank you. Also, the wider it spreads the greater chance it could further adapt.

 

As for poo, I have a picture of me and my wife standing alone in Singapore's Changi Airport without a soul as far as the eye could see during SARS. They understood the potential of a SARS type virus.

 

So better turd than herd.

Interesting, as i'm familiar with turds from herds.

 

I would like your opinion on the following:  When the media says- 100 people were tested for coronavirus today and 10 returned a positive result.  

 

Is it known from the results of the tests how many people out of the 10 had covid-19 and how many just had a common cold?

[ukrules]

54 minutes ago, Heppinger said:

Is it known from the results of the tests how many people out of the 10 had covid-19 and how many just had a common cold?

That would depend on whether the test is specific to COVID, as we approach August 2020 - it will be a very specific test that does not check for anything that exists outside of the SARS-COV-2 virus.

 

However the tests don't show if you have the virus right now, you could have recovered a week or more back and still have viral debris clearing from your system, that will still show up on a test and from what I've read the debris can stick around for up to weeks after you've recovered.

 

If you've recovered and are immune and subsequently breathe it in again then you will become infected for a short while, perhaps a day or two while your immune system systematically destroys the virus one piece at a time until nothing but remnants remain - those will test as positive as well.

 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Heppinger said:

I would like your opinion on the following:  When the media says- 100 people were tested for coronavirus today and 10 returned a positive result.  

 

Is it known from the results of the tests how many people out of the 10 had covid-19 and how many just had a common cold?

ukrules answer is an good example how nature doen't always produce clear black-and-white results the way we would like.

 

Specific to the the corona virus question. PCR live virus COVID-19 tests are designed to detect only SARS-2 and not the other coronaviruses.  Even before SARS2, hospital respiratory pathogen panel tests can distinguish which of the 4 common cold coronaviruses you have if you have one. Of course, all tests have various accuracy and interpretation issues. You can also have more than one virus at a time.

[Heppinger]

56 minutes ago, rabas said:

Specific to the the corona virus question. PCR live virus COVID-19 tests are designed to detect only SARS-2 and not the other coronaviruses.  Even before SARS2, hospital respiratory pathogen panel tests can distinguish which of the 4 common cold coronaviruses you have if you have one. Of course, all tests have various accuracy and interpretation issues. You can also have more than one virus at a time.

I'm not an expert on any form of mad cow disease but both these test methods you mention sound like they would require complex laboratory equipment and trained technicians.  Would this be a fair statement?

[Scott]

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