Thai central bank says could be several years before tourist numbers normalise

[natway09]

Be fair, it is just not practical or safe to open up the country to tourists at present.

To those of you who think they should I say that regardless of the present hardships  you have little regard for human life, just the 

Donald syndrome,,,,,, $$$$$$ at all costs

[Dene16]

2 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

How does a Thai get the rebate?   I saw mention of a web site to register but the wife says she cannot find it. 

Google 40% thai rebate and it will say that the list of hotels that offer this can be found at the coconuts website click on the link to go there and you will find another link to go to the place you are looking for

[wensiensheng]

Good. Thailand has been prostituting itself, metaphorically and physically, for too long. Once people adjust to producing things instead of servicing foreigners, the better off this country will be.

[kiwikeith]

2 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Sorry Charlie. It is going to be a lot longer than that with the rules this country has in place to get in here. Ain't nobody gonna do that, and besides, the CV19 has taken a devastational toll on peoples pocket books and they just cannot afford to get up and travel now or in the near 1-2-3 year future.. 

You may be right, however there are many that travel, not rich but that have enough to do a trip every now and again, the most effected by your comments will be the young, they are hardest hit by unemployment.

Then the old have had the majority of the world wide c19 deaths. 

It is hard to grasp but many countries are letting c19 run riot and don't seem to be worried.

The death toll is going down and from what I observe most cases returning to NZ, only need quarantine to recover.

This makes me think that the big boys know more than they are letting on, after all who is going to let every airliner in world the become a beer can.

I will go out on a limb and take a guess that within 6 months planes will be up and flying and this will be a past pandemic like bird flue.

 

Tourism will take a big hit like you say, but local tourism is thriving in NZ with ski resorts having 2.5 times as many visitors as b4 borders were locked, and they are fleecing like crazy.

I think the chinese will poor back into LOS before others, that's, what they want.

The china sea an example of what is going on , China has run out of industrial space, Thailand is the next best option and the government is dancing to the piper, how else can you explain how god is hated by the people but still thrives on selfies.

There may be a change in the wind, but this probably will be a reshuffle.

People will travel again soon, but with spy apps attached to their phones, economic enslavement is now worse than the 1%.

 

No doubt a different world is upon us, we have survived the madness of a financed pupett (Hitler) and others b4, we can do it again, manipulation of the world will break when KFC and the arms companies have no customers as they are all covid sick.

I think this will start to end sooner than most predict as otherwise the whole world will become armageddon.

Cheers

Kiwi Keith

[smudger1951]

Considering the current lockdown situation airlines need to know when potential passengers can enter the Kingdom before restarting flight schedules and this all takes time. Package holiday companies cannot plan either. I can see the coming high season so many of us hope for just slipping away now.

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

So on this calculation (80% down on foreign reciepts of 11.4% GDP), the Thai economy GDP is down 9% on just tourism alone. You throw in pricey exports and non buying Thais, and that GDP is nowhere near what they are predicting. More like 20-25% decline on GDP at the minimum 

I really see the Thai Economy contracting by as much as 30 % or more during 2020.

All the pointers are seeming to point towards this for me.

[sambum]

"it would take several years for foreign tourist numbers to return to the 40 million a year level"

 

I think he's being a tad optimistic - how about "never"?

 

I think too much damage has been done, and not just by the virus - that's actually the least of the problems.

 

Going back to "pre virus days" there was a constant stream of reports of tourists/foreigners being harassed, double pricing, bar/restaurant overcharges, beatings by gangs of Thais/taxi drivers/bouncers etc etc etc.

 

Does he think that people will flock back to a country where the Health Minister blames Covid-19 on "dirty unwashed foreigners", and still has his job!!!

 

I know many people that used to come to Thailand year after year for their annual holidays because it was a "fun" place to be, and the weather wonderful (at the right time of year). But not any more, and once someone changes their holiday destination due to disappointment, you are NEVER going to get them back. Plus they are obviously going to pass on their comments to friends and neighbours, so I think Thailand will have to get used to the "new normal"!

 

 

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, smudger1951 said:

Once again, the natural instinct is to introduce specific pricing incentives for thais. 

I can understand that the Thai taxpayer is paying for this 40% rebate in an indirect way for Thai's only, but the Thai's too quickly forget how much farangs contribute to their economy, so I would think hotels should be enticing us farangs who live here to also support them through some kind of discounts, however I personally haven't seen any yet, has anyone else ?

Edited July 20, 2020 by 4MyEgo

[phkauf]

Considering the recent poll that 95% of Thais don't want foreign tourists, I would think he should be happy with that forecast. (Sarcasm Alert!)

It's really astonishing that the government "produced" that poll, yet the country is so heavily dependent upon foreigners. Must stoke that xenophobia to prevent the masses from blaming the current government's mismanagement. 

 

[LukKrueng]

4 hours ago, 2 is 1 said:

Really! First you need to let tourist in! But sorry never normalise!

First off all, Thailand not letting tourists in is NOT the only, nor the main reason tourism will not get back to normal soon.

 

Many or even most countries still impose 14 days quarantine on people entering the country, so most tourist will have to consider that before going anywhere. 

 

Economy is down all over the world so many people that would have travelled anywhere can't afford it right now anyway. 

 

and beside all of that - Surely you don't want loads of people from highly infected countries to roam the streets of Thailand freely at the moment, do you? 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's central bank chief said on Monday it would take several years for foreign tourist numbers to return to the 40 million a year level, with the coronavirus pandemic hitting a lucrative industry that provides a lot of jobs.

The reality is starting to sink in.

[Isaan sailor]

Yeah, Baht's down a bit--still too high to save the economy.  They can thank Wuhan-19 for most of this.  And 40 million tourists, the vast majority from China--is a good thing?

[iamariva1957]

3 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

How does a Thai get the rebate?   I saw mention of a web site to register but the wife says she cannot find it. 

And if it manage to find if as friends tried... it does NOT mean you will get it. It is another in a long list of lotteries. For that way the powers to be don't have to pay out to everyone who registers. It is a joke anyway as NOT every establishment is in the program and those that seem to be have already raised their prices to try an recoup something... anything... for the up coming long weekend. And don't get me started on that!

[4MyEgo]

3 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

How does a Thai get the rebate?   I saw mention of a web site to register but the wife says she cannot find it. 

I just asked the Mrs and she said she cannot translate it, but I copied and pasted this "Rao Tiew Duay Gan"

It might make sense to your wife, I also think you might go through a Krungsri bank app , but not sure ?

[expat_4_life]

3 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

I just asked the Mrs and she said she cannot translate it, but I copied and pasted this "Rao Tiew Duay Gan"

It might make sense to your wife, I also think you might go through a Krungsri bank app , but not sure ?

Translated it means "We travel together" - the slogan for their travel discounts.

Edited July 20, 2020 by expat_4_life

[Forza2002]

Continued tourism growth was never sustainable and the bell curve had to kick in sooner or later. I doubt Thailand will ever see 40M tourists again, plenty of other neighboring countries will start getting bigger slices of the tourism pie. As recent as 10 years ago there were only 16M tourists.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand#:~:text=In 2017 the number of,in tourism revenues in 2017.  

 

 

 

[brucec64]

2 hours ago, barryofthailand said:

First of all the 40 million was a inflated number I'll tell you why.  Say a tourist flies from the UK to Bangkok he is counted as one tourist. Then he checks into a hotel in Pattaya he is counted as one tourist. Then he flies to Vietnam for a week then flies to Phuket he is counted as another tourist. Then he flies to Singapore for a week and then flies to Bangkok HR again is counted as one more tourists do this one person I'd counted as 3 or 4 tourists do thats how Tat gets the fourth million 

Not sure what your point is. That's how every country counts tourists. The more important number is the increase year over year.

[cmrichsw]

Stop chasing away digital nomads, let them pay a small tax & offer them a special visa.

 

[Zikomat]

Squeeze the remaining 200000 tourists out of the country by 26 of September. Then start normalization from point zero. Thai logic.

[umlungu2012]

1 hour ago, kiwikeith said:

You may be right, however there are many that travel, not rich but that have enough to do a trip every now and again, the most effected by your comments will be the young, they are hardest hit by unemployment.

Then the old have had the majority of the world wide c19 deaths. 

It is hard to grasp but many countries are letting c19 run riot and don't seem to be worried.

The death toll is going down and from what I observe most cases returning to NZ, only need quarantine to recover.

This makes me think that the big boys know more than they are letting on, after all who is going to let every airliner in world the become a beer can.

I will go out on a limb and take a guess that within 6 months planes will be up and flying and this will be a past pandemic like bird flue.

 

Tourism will take a big hit like you say, but local tourism is thriving in NZ with ski resorts having 2.5 times as many visitors as b4 borders were locked, and they are fleecing like crazy.

I think the chinese will poor back into LOS before others, that's, what they want.

The china sea an example of what is going on , China has run out of industrial space, Thailand is the next best option and the government is dancing to the piper, how else can you explain how god is hated by the people but still thrives on selfies.

There may be a change in the wind, but this probably will be a reshuffle.

People will travel again soon, but with spy apps attached to their phones, economic enslavement is now worse than the 1%.

 

No doubt a different world is upon us, we have survived the madness of a financed pupett (Hitler) and others b4, we can do it again, manipulation of the world will break when KFC and the arms companies have no customers as they are all covid sick.

I think this will start to end sooner than most predict as otherwise the whole world will become armageddon.

Cheers

Kiwi Keith

What are you on, mate? I want some too. 

[Jack Cook]

Good to see the Thai economy gliding along like a house brick. As far as turism is concerned, Vietnam and Cambodia must be laughing loudly. Thailand is going to suffer what it inevitable deserved regarding farang tourists for the future. Why would anybody want to visit when the options are now so much better?

[expat_4_life]

33 minutes ago, cmrichsw said:

Stop chasing away digital nomads, let them pay a small tax & offer them a special visa.

 

They basically offer this in the form of the Thailand Elite visa program.

It's 500k up front for 5 years, that's around 3k USD @ year.

Is that a small enough tax for you? You can't scrape together 3k @ year

and yet you are going to be contributing to the Thai economy in some noticeable way?

I do have sympathy for people that are independent and not anchored to their home

country and wish to reside here, but look at what they're asking, is it too much?

[Miami007]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

The so-called state quarantine is not stupid. 

 

It has prevented a resurgence of the virus inside Thailand, with dozens of quarantined Thais being tested positive and treated accordingly. 

 

If Thai people accept the quarantine, for their own good and the good of their country, foreigners would be wise to do the same. 

 

Just a handful of visitors have escaped quarantine, notably the Egyptian soldiers and the Sudanese girl, and this has already caused a disaster. 

 

No need for more... 

What disaster? One additional case in Thailand....

Or are you speaking of mass hysteria?

[Peterphuket]

Soon or late he will change his mind.

With time a solution will be found.

[FNQ]

5 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Who needs farang tourists, apparently 3.6 million Thai's have booked hotels since the government provided a 40% rebate for Thai's to holiday domestically and because the "hotels" are doing so good, some hotels have upped their prices by as much as 85% for the long weekend, no doubt they will be empty and crying poor after the long weekend.

Yep,as all figures (stats) quoted for anything are believable.lol

Edited July 20, 2020 by FNQ
Addition

[Raphus]

This is a very good and realistic projection at this current moment. But it will be 2022 or 23 when tourism returns to normal.

As I mentioned in another post about the economy. The tertiary industries supplying the tourism trade have also lost money and wages. Those straw makers, coffee wholesalers, food producers, beer makers, tour operators and a full sundry of other support industries. So the overall loss is around 30% GDP.

Opening the country is the only way forward. Covid is here to stay worldwide and proper micro isolation management is what most western countries are doing and what needs to be done with Thailand.

[Dialemco]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

I can understand that the Thai taxpayer is paying for this 40% rebate in an indirect way for Thai's only, but the Thai's too quickly forget how much farangs contribute to their economy, so I would think hotels should be enticing us farangs who live here to also support them through some kind of discounts, however I personally haven't seen any yet, has anyone else ?

Just saw video of Koh Samui filmed yesterday it is completely dead so not attracting Thai domestic tourism which not surprising owing exorbitant fares demanded by Bangkok Airways even today who still reported loss last year in their accounts which also stated 25% fare income came from Europe probably much more when direct bookings taken into consideration.

[Maha Sarakham]

I think it's pretty obvious tourism isn't going to recover anytime soon with the total panic that ensued from a single case in Rayong.  This is the path Thailand has chosen, for better or for worse.

 

I'm more interested in how the loss of investor confidence (economy & government both) might affect the baht.  My wife keeps reading in her Thai FB groups about a 'Tom Yum Goong 2.0' scenario, where the THB drops to a 1 to 50 ratio again.  I don't think it will get THAT bad, but I've been saving some money to move over to THB in the event it does get closer to 40 again.

[laosnative]

2 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I can understand that the Thai taxpayer is paying for this 40% rebate in an indirect way for Thai's only, but the Thai's too quickly forget how much farangs contribute to their economy, so I would think hotels should be enticing us farangs who live here to also support them through some kind of discounts, however I personally haven't seen any yet, has anyone else ?

Time and time again , if a Thai business is struggling they do not discount....They increase the prices to try to recoup the shortfall.

Here in Laos I have just booked a decent guesthouse, massively discounted, and far cheaper that a house rental.....

They seem to understand that a small profit is better than nothing. 

I despair at Thai logic sometimes......

 

[chocboss]

I noticed when I lived in Surin 4 years ago the tourists were dwindling then when I moved to Hua Hin year by year the tourist were still not coming in the numbers they say, for now with the bhat so strong I think Thailand has missed the boat, 5 years + to recover if they can