Thai central bank says could be several years before tourist numbers normalise

[Boomer6969]

6 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

So on this calculation (80% down on foreign reciepts of 11.4% GDP), the Thai economy GDP is down 9% on just tourism alone. You throw in pricey exports and non buying Thais, and that GDP is nowhere near what they are predicting. More like 20-25% decline on GDP at the minimum 

Sure they got a job for you at the World Bank or IMF.

[Maha Sarakham]

16 minutes ago, chocboss said:

I noticed when I lived in Surin 4 years ago the tourists were dwindling then when I moved to Hua Hin year by year the tourist were still not coming in the numbers they say, for now with the bhat so strong I think Thailand has missed the boat, 5 years + to recover if they can 

Chinese arrivals to popular package destinations such as: Phuket, Pattaya and Bangkok were WAY up.  Packed coaches clogging the roadways everywhere, as everyone here can attest to.

 

Farang arrivals appeared to be falling off of a cliff over the past 5 years.  Thai Baht getting more expensive, prices going up across the board, a feeling of 'been there done that', a change in the attitude of the Thai people?  Among many other reasons I guess... could write a book on this.

 

Point is... I think Thai tourism will survive with a new model geared towards the Chinese (Villa Rentals instead of Hotels, Buffets instead of Bars, etc.), but I think we witnessed the peak and finale of the Farang business era already.

[Chongalulu]

5 hours ago, Oldie said:

Thailand simply needs to get more independent of tourism. Tourists can change their destination with a click of a mouse. Thailand cannot do the same with the infrastructure for tourism. There will be more and more competition from other countries. An expensive Baht alone could move tourists away. 

Tourism is relatively low skilled to suit the skill set of Thais. Competition in other alternative areas is just as if not more fierce but with Thailand’s poor educational rankings they cannot compete with better educated nationals from other countries. 

[Miami007]

3 hours ago, LukKrueng said:

First off all, Thailand not letting tourists in is NOT the only, nor the main reason tourism will not get back to normal soon.

 

Many or even most countries still impose 14 days quarantine on people entering the country, so most tourist will have to consider that before going anywhere. 

 

Economy is down all over the world so many people that would have travelled anywhere can't afford it right now anyway. 

 

and beside all of that - Surely you don't want loads of people from highly infected countries to roam the streets of Thailand freely at the moment, do you? 

You are aware that even in the USA 99.5% of the population is healthy?

So why not allow healthy people in? But that would require testing and preparation.. so much easier to ban everyone from a country.

This worked well in the 14th century when quarantine for ships from China was implemented in Italian ports.. 

[ray666]

Thailand has become expensive now for fa lang. So I think it will take a long time before new tourist go there. There are many cheaper places to go near by. Also I don`t think they want fa lang in Thailand.They want them to get a dodge Visa from there dodge friends. More brown envelopes.

Its a strange place , but all about money.

[thurien]

"The Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects only 8 million foreign visitors this year, down 80% from a record 39.8 million last year"

 

if this number would be set as the new NORMAL you would hear delightful applauds from the environment, the mountains, the sea, the corals and the Thai people in general who are fed up with all these dirty, noisy tourists. Structures which will suffer are mostly mafia- like organisations with the loss of easy money. And Thai individuals should be flexible enough = not wait for the not-coming improvement of the situation but look for proper jobs instead

[AndrewMciver]

8 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Sorry Charlie. It is going to be a lot longer than that with the rules this country has in place to get in here. Ain't nobody gonna do that, and besides, the CV19 has taken a devastational toll on peoples pocket books and they just cannot afford to get up and travel now or in the near 1-2-3 year future.. 

 

The Chinese economy grew the last quarter by over 3%.

 

Which is worrying.

[umlungu2012]

2 hours ago, chocboss said:

I noticed when I lived in Surin 4 years ago the tourists were dwindling then when I moved to Hua Hin year by year the tourist were still not coming in the numbers they say, for now with the bhat so strong I think Thailand has missed the boat, 5 years + to recover if they can 

The tourists were shrinking, getting smaller? Was it something in the Surin water or food? Low door frames? 

 

 

dwindling = gradually diminishing in size, amount, or strength.

[Caldera]

Before speculating how many tourists might come, actually letting tourists back in would be a prerequisite for any recovery.

 

[shdmn]

8 minutes ago, Caldera said:

Before speculating how many tourists might come, actually letting tourists back in would be a prerequisite for any recovery.

 

They can't lose face though.  One of the reasons this country may never get their sheit together.  Thailand could be an economic powerhouse if they didn't have such stupid thought processes when it comes to business.

Edited July 20, 2020 by shdmn

[Youlike]

Perfect moment for a total rebuild of the touristic spots.....put the wires underground, make new sidewalks with busstops, and so on.

[Niteowl45]

8 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Good. Thailand has been prostituting itself, metaphorically and physically, for too long. Once people adjust to producing things instead of servicing foreigners, the better off this country will be.

Maybe you should get out of Pattaya once in a while dude...... or consider where all the pollution in Bangkok comes from. Thailand has lots of factories, making products for all kinds of international companies. Anything you buy here in Canada was made in China, Thailand or other parts of South East Asia....  Many Japanese companies have production facilities in Thailand, so do Adidas and other foreign corporations.... The list goes on.

 

Prostitution is certainly great for farm girls and their families but it's not the end-all of thai economy

[Redline]

12 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

So on this calculation (80% down on foreign reciepts of 11.4% GDP), the Thai economy GDP is down 9% on just tourism alone. You throw in pricey exports and non buying Thais, and that GDP is nowhere near what they are predicting. More like 20-25% decline on GDP at the minimum 

And the cabinet jumping ship

[Laughing Gravy]

I have to say the first realist I have heard. Well done that man. I wonder how long it will be before he is removed or a statement saying it is wrong and everything will be fine in a few months.

[Dexxter]

13 hours ago, Saint Nick said:

First, you have to announce some measures to open up the country!

Then you have to actually open up the country!

Since all you ...fine people... assume, you don't have to do that anytime soon, your losses will be far greater than that and your economy will take way longer to recover!

You reap what you sow!

Even if Thailand opens their borders, Australians will not be coming for a while. People in Melbourne are not even allowed outside their immediate suburbs let alone travel for tourism, interstate or overseas. Maybe next year. Maybe not. Who knows.

[spidermike007]

First of all, the 40 million was always a fictitious figure. It included ALL travel, and not just tourism. Second it was not necessarily a good thing. The crowds were out of control and it lowered the quality of the experience for everyone. It was mostly low quality tourists, who were not spending much.

 

The goal is to increase the quality of the average tourist. But, that would require sacrifice. Like lowering luxury taxes, paying attention to the environment, traffic safety, law and order, and other very inconvenient things. 

 

I doubt it will return to 40 mil within the next ten years. Too many alternatives, too much confusion, and not enough being offered. However, when the youth finally oust the toxic army, that could change. 

[Stargeezr]

Thailand should get rid of its ridiculous visa requirements. forget the 90 day

requirements to have to run to some border for tourists who stay longer than 

3 or 6 months. I think that Mexico will be having a busy Winter season this year.

Just show up with your passport and stay as long as you like.  Wake up Asia

time to join the 21 century.  I hope that this high season is low tourism and

lots of groaning from the hotel and restaurant industry, surely some of them

are owned by the very rich Thai families who must have at least a bit of power

against this present government.

Geezer

[Mr Meeseeks]

5 hours ago, Dexxter said:

Even if Thailand opens their borders, Australians will not be coming for a while. People in Melbourne are not even allowed outside their immediate suburbs let alone travel for tourism, interstate or overseas. Maybe next year. Maybe not. Who knows.

Surely that is good news for everyone except Australians?

[Mr Meeseeks]

1 hour ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

Thailand should get rid of its ridiculous visa requirements. forget the 90 day

requirements to have to run to some border for tourists who stay longer than 

3 or 6 months. I think that Mexico will be having a busy Winter season this year.

Just show up with your passport and stay as long as you like.  Wake up Asia

time to join the 21 century.  I hope that this high season is low tourism and

lots of groaning from the hotel and restaurant industry, surely some of them

are owned by the very rich Thai families who must have at least a bit of power

against this present government.

Geezer

The visa requirements are fine as they are, and I would argue they are not strict enough, especially given the types of Westerners Thailand seems to attract. Background checks and criminal record checks should be mandatory for all long term visas prior to issue.

 

It wasn't long ago you could stay here perennially on tourist visas or entry stamps. That and the cracking down on overstay is about the only things that have changed.

[jayceenik]

I posted the wrong format earlier ????

 

This guy leaving or arriving ? 

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by jayceenik

[Paul Henry]

Now would be a good time for TAT and immigration to start working on getting the statistics right. Instead of putting everyone who comes into the country under the term tourists set up various categories to identify exactly why people come here. eg. Business, renew visa, medical, tourist. resident returning etc. This would give the government some meaningful numbers to work with. This is like road fatalities only count ones who die on the road, makes the numbers look better same as with tourist. Of the 40 mil. probably only 20 mil are real tourists. Only people who believe these  numbers are the Government.

[ExpatOne]

21 hours ago, Saint Nick said:

First, you have to announce some measures to open up the country!

Then you have to actually open up the country!

Since all you ...fine people... assume, you don't have to do that anytime soon, your losses will be far greater than that and your economy will take way longer to recover!

You reap what you sow!

Shame on them for protecting the health of Thai people! - That’s what you mean, right?

[Aussie Col]

17 hours ago, thurien said:

"The Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects only 8 million foreign visitors this year, down 80% from a record 39.8 million last year"

 

if this number would be set as the new NORMAL you would hear delightful applauds from the environment, the mountains, the sea, the corals and the Thai people in general who are fed up with all these dirty, noisy tourists. Structures which will suffer are mostly mafia- like organisations with the loss of easy money. And Thai individuals should be flexible enough = not wait for the not-coming improvement of the situation but look for proper jobs instead

They will be lucky to get a 1/4 of that unless they BS the figures

[ChiangMaiCal]

On 7/20/2020 at 4:59 PM, Brunolem said:

The so-called state quarantine is not stupid. 

 

It has prevented a resurgence of the virus inside Thailand, with dozens of quarantined Thais being tested positive and treated accordingly. 

 

If Thai people accept the quarantine, for their own good and the good of their country, foreigners would be wise to do the same. 

 

Just a handful of visitors have escaped quarantine, notably the Egyptian soldiers and the Sudanese girl, and this has already caused a disaster. 

 

No need for more... 

 

[tonray]

On 7/20/2020 at 1:19 PM, 4MyEgo said:

Who needs farang tourists, apparently 3.6 million Thai's have booked hotels since the government provided a 40% rebate for Thai's to holiday domestically and because the "hotels" are doing so good, some hotels have upped their prices by as much as 85% for the long weekend, no doubt they will be empty and crying poor after the long weekend.

Yeah...booked into Hua Hin this weekend...no break or discoount whatsoever. 

[ChiangMaiCal]

Actually if you look closely you will notice that infections are detected mostly among people already in quarantine. I see three reasons for this: (1) those people may have arrived from a Covid hotspot, and have very likely traveled in confinement of public transport. (2) They are virtually the only ones being tested. (3) Being placed in quarantine facilities that limit fresh air and impose breathing recirculated air conditioning just increases the exposure that was experienced in item (1). If travellers were allowed to self-isolate in their homes under police monitoring like in Australia, or if the choice of hotels included some smaller places with windows that open and are cheaper or at a beachfront resort, then I feel numbers of returnees would rise. 

[Mr Meeseeks]

On 7/20/2020 at 6:00 PM, cmrichsw said:

Stop chasing away digital nomads, let them pay a small tax & offer them a special visa.

 

You missed the pertinent point that they don't want more foreigners here in the first place.

[Mr Meeseeks]

On 7/20/2020 at 6:33 PM, Jack Cook said:

Good to see the Thai economy gliding along like a house brick. As far as turism is concerned, Vietnam and Cambodia must be laughing loudly. Thailand is going to suffer what it inevitable deserved regarding farang tourists for the future. Why would anybody want to visit when the options are now so much better?

Why do I keep reading comparisons with Cambodia?

 

Cambodia will never be able to compete with Thailand on any meaningful level as it is too mired in corruption and now completely owned by the Chinese. 

 

And I say this with great love for the country and people and as a frequent visitor since 1998 when it first opened up to tourists.

 

Also, most people have to, and will, travel through Thailand to get to Cambodia in the first place. 

 

It will get the spillover of sexpats and waisters that have failed in Thailand, much like it has gotten since the mid to late-2000's. Other tourists will pop over to see Angkor and that's it, as there's eff all else to do there now that Sihanoukville has been completely destroyed.

[ChakaKhan]

Let LOS open up an island and just use it for tourist..call it Covid island

 

Sign the waiver and you are on your own....welcome to the Purge......enter at your own risk

 

Kind of like being a cute gal going to Ko Tao solo...

[4MyEgo]

18 minutes ago, tonray said:

Yeah...booked into Hua Hin this weekend...no break or discoount whatsoever. 

 ????