Gold at all-time high

[Snow Leopard]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Monster fall as we speak, down from 1980 to 1935.

Just saw that. 

[Snow Leopard]

Took out everyone's stop losses from last night. 

[Logosone]

This has to just be a correction. Over to London and US to bring it over 2000, though they'll probably also have some major corrections along the way.

[Brunolem]

Fresh from the press:

 

And yes, anyone asking how to best hedge against the monetary insanity that is coming, the answer is very simple: keep buying gold, whose surge to $3,000 - which is also Bank of America's price target -  is just a matter of time

 

[Snow Leopard]

Gold was roughly $1500 per Oz before all the stimulus packages. The Fed Res had a balance sheet of roughly $4 Trillion.  Now that the Fed's balance sheet is going to easily hit $8 Trillion, infinity and beyond so its conceivable that gold can hit $3000 per Oz easily.  

 

The gold price was $19 an Oz in 1765. It was just above $20 per Oz in 1913. What happened in 1913. The Federal Reserve act. Since then they have devalued and debased the US$ by 99%. 

 

Gold, Silver and possibly soon Bitcoin are the only True Money. Anything else is just paper currency and a fraudulent confidence trick. To be Real Money the definition states it has to be a store of value. Losing 99% is not a store of value. 

 

People do not understand that any government currency printing has to get its value from the currency already in existence and this folks is our savings and what we have worked hard for getting devalued and the difference goes to the banks and companies that have first dibs on bringing it into existence. This pushes asset prices way to high so that normal people cant afford them. Commonly known as wealth transfer. 

[SePl]

Not true, it's still not so high.

 

[Dazinoz]

4 minutes ago, SePl said:

Not true, it's still not so high.

 

Thai gold prices are the highest they have ever been in Thailand.

[Henryford]

4 hours ago, cooked said:

I paid ฿16 000 when I first started buying and now it is nearly double that. I buy every year after rice harvest. 

As soon as somebody starts talking about how stupid people are for buying gold, I have to chuckle. 

If you bought in 2011 you are just about breaking even, with no annual returns.

[Brunolem]

6 minutes ago, Henryford said:

If you bought in 2011 you are just about breaking even, with no annual returns.

With cherrypicking you can "prove" almost anything you want.

 

Instead of 2011, why not chose 2001, for example?

 

You can also look at many stock market indexes, such as the Nikkei or the CAC, and see that they have gone nowhere for decades.

 

Only the US stock market has been performing well, thanks to massive doses of steroids/money printing, at the cost of destroying the currency, slowly but surely.

 

[Logosone]

London wimping out and not pushing gold back up. 

 

Big moves to come in New York? 

 

[Logosone]

Gold USD in free fall. At 1908.

 

New York should be very interesting. 

[Dazinoz]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Gold USD in free fall. At 1908.

 

New York should be very interesting. 

This will make the "anti-golders" happy.

[jimgilly]

8 hours ago, Dante99 said:

It never ceases to amaze how many incorrect assumptions posters make on this forum.  It is no wonder so many get into pickles given their jump to the wrong conclusion mentality.  Good luck Jim, hope you have better luck judging investments than you do people.

 

 

Likewise.

[Logosone]

What's happening with gold right now is that the USD got stronger and some of the big holders got nervous and sold their big positions.

 

I wonder if this will be repeated in the US, like it was in Tokyo and London or if the US will push it higher.

 

There must be even bigger positions held in the US.

[farangkinok]

8 hours ago, Dazinoz said:

I use a Thai app that shows the buy and sell prices of bar and jewellery through out Thailand. I check the prices daily and have never seen a spread as low as 50 baht in the last 5 years, it has always been 100 but recently when people were selling when the virus hit it went to 300 but back to 100 now.

 

Can you show  where there is a 50 baht spread? Not saying it isn't or hasn't been I am just curious as to where.

The spread varies with gold price volatility. Because of increased volatility (overnight price of gold shot up to $1980, then plunged to $1907/troy ounce), spread is currently up to 60 ฿ (see image). For current market, go to Hua Seng Heng web page https://www.huasengheng.com/

[Dazinoz]

14 minutes ago, farangkinok said:

The spread varies with gold price volatility. Because of increased volatility (overnight price of gold shot up to $1980, then plunged to $1907/troy ounce), spread is currently up to 60 ฿ (see image). For current market, go to Hua Seng Heng web page https://www.huasengheng.com/

 

 

Obviously a different gold shop chain. I use the app below and the shop is always the same as the app. As I said never seen it lower than 100. Been at 100 for the 5 years I been using it except when people flocked to gold shops at start virus and spread went to 300, then down to 200 and now back to 100.

 

Interesting.

[cooked]

5 hours ago, Henryford said:

If you bought in 2011 you are just about breaking even, with no annual returns.

I don't think that the cost of living in Thailand had doubled since then, do you?

 

[Logosone]

Useless New York not making any impulse waves. Neither up nor down.

 

Useless.

[Brunolem]

15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Useless New York not making any impulse waves. Neither up nor down.

 

Useless.

A pause might be welcome.

 

Not every asset is Tesla...after all...

 

[Logosone]

It's the mountain peak effect isn't it? The closer you get to the summit the slower you walk. 

 

They managed to take it up to 1952, but it was not a spectacular impulse wave. Just little by little. Step by step.

 

What will Tokyo bring tomorrow? I bet they will cut it down.

[alyx]

I have got a 152 gram Cartier Pasha in 18 carat gold. Should I hold to it ? 

[englishoak]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

Useless New York not making any impulse waves. Neither up nor down.

 

Useless.

Thats good. A strong base has formed at 1796 with a moderate one at 1840 and a weak one at 1920. Gold needs to consolidate for a period above 1920 to form a better and stronger baseline.

 

At somepoint the cracks in markets and fragility of the financial and economic systems will reemerge then things will start to crash again, gold along with everything else. Im not sure of the timing but ive a feeling it could well be pre US election time, possibly Mid to late Sept. If not then not long after as its all unsustainable without continued further liquidity injections, its only a matter of time.

 

As a response the fed along with other central banks are going to reopen the QE floodgates and add liquidity like never before. Then gold silver etc will be off to the races. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by englishoak

[Logosone]

6 hours ago, englishoak said:

Thats good. A strong base has formed at 1796 with a moderate one at 1840 and a weak one at 1920. Gold needs to consolidate for a period above 1920 to form a better and stronger baseline.

 

At somepoint the cracks in markets and fragility of the financial and economic systems will reemerge then things will start to crash again, gold along with everything else. Im not sure of the timing but ive a feeling it could well be pre US election time, possibly Mid to late Sept. If not then not long after as its all unsustainable without continued further liquidity injections, its only a matter of time.

 

As a response the fed along with other central banks are going to reopen the QE floodgates and add liquidity like never before. Then gold silver etc will be off to the races. 

 

 

 

 

 

That's a good point, there could be a bit of consolidation in the 1905-1965 range before 2000 is on the radar.

 

Whilst the US did the slow and steady climb yesterday Tokyo just shot an impulse up but not huge and we'll have to see if they don't correct downwards as well.

 

On the 15m chart an abc correction seems to be forming which would indicate a down move again. But looked like that many times and it just went up. On 4 hour chart the a wave would have just started and a b-wave up should come. Normally longer timeframe trumps short.

[Brunolem]

6 hours ago, englishoak said:

 

As a response the fed along with other central banks are going to reopen the QE floodgates and add liquidity like never before. Then gold silver etc will be off to the races. 

 

On this one I support the Democrats...the bigger the relief package (under negotiation), the worse it is for the dollar, and the better for gold.

 

One can guess that both sides will reach an agreement somewhere between 1.5 and 2 trillions, sending the 2020 deficit over 4 trillions, the fed's balance sheet closer to 10 trillions, and gold...

[Logosone]

For months Gold USD was like a comfort cruise on a triple carriage motorway. You just had to go long and you win.

 

Now trading Gold has become like driving against traffic in Bangkok rush hour. You don't know what's coming around the corner.

 

Looks like it will go long then big red candles going down.

 

You want to go long, because it's still a bullish trend, the economies are still suffering, Covid19 wave 2 on the way etc etc.

 

But then you know so many have huge Gold positions and are trigger happy nervous now as 1980 has been reached and nobody knows if it will go past 2000. And corrections have started. So to them it would make sense to cash in now and secure a great price, in the absence of knowledge if a post 2000 Gold price is on the cards any time soon.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2020 by Logosone

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

But then you know so many have huge Gold positions and are trigger happy nervous now as 1980 has been reached and nobody knows if it will go past 2000. And corrections have started. So to them it would make sense to cash in now and secure a great price, in the absence of knowledge if a post 2000 Gold price is on the cards any time soon.

 

 

They could cash in, but then to buy what?

 

Highly overpriced stocks and bonds?

 

[Logosone]

18 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

They could cash in, but then to buy what?

 

Highly overpriced stocks and bonds?

 

Some people are cashing in, look what Gold USD is doing, fakeout to 1960 now dropped to 1949.

 

If the big players do cash in it would have to be to preserve capital. Out of fear a correction downwards is coming.

 

You're right though, that would not make a lot of sense, I doubt they would do that. They'll try to go for the big pay day.

 

But so many people cashing in and going short right now. The beautiful uptrend, for now, is on holiday. But for how long is the question.

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

But so many people cashing in and going short right now. The beautiful uptrend, for now, is on holiday. But for how long is the question.

Funny how people are going short on gold after a very short run, but not on stocks like Tesla and others, whose nosebleed valuation should attract a lot of attention from shortsellers...

 

Compared to Tesla, Moderna and others, gold is super cheap.

 

This is from David Stockman:

 

Tesla is now valued at nearly $300 billion, or 12 times its profitless sales, 310 times it’s meager cash flow of $1 billion, and more than the $225 billion value of Ford, GM, Fiat-Chrysler, BMW, Volkswagen, Nissan, and Peugeot, combined.

Amazon, is now valued at $1.5 trillion, or 153 times net income and 83 times free cash flow.

Moderna weighed in at $29.6 billion of market cap on a mere $52 million of sales (mostly government grants) and a $500 million trailing-12-month loss – and, yes, with more than a dozen major competitors in the phony race for a COVID-19 vaccine.

[Brunolem]

This is very bullish for gold, but not for Thailand I am afraid... 

 

(Air Power is an Australian defence analyst) 

 

AirPower last week contacted major defence to strategists around the world to undertake a “risk assessment” of military conflict between China and the US. They rate conflict in the next 12 months as “likely”; over the next two years as “highly likely” and over the next three years as “almost certain”.

[Logosone]

43 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

This is very bullish for gold, but not for Thailand I am afraid... 

 

(Air Power is an Australian defence analyst) 

 

AirPower last week contacted major defence to strategists around the world to undertake a “risk assessment” of military conflict between China and the US. They rate conflict in the next 12 months as “likely”; over the next two years as “highly likely” and over the next three years as “almost certain”.

Thank you!

 

Yes it looks like bullish is still the way to go. After all it is a massive uptrend still for Gold USD looking at the longer timeframes. The thing is part of the reason why Gold went sky-high is the USD weakness. And many have been predicting a recovery of the USD for a while. It is probably unlikely the dollar will keep falling in a straight line. When the dollar corrects upward a bit that will bring Gold down.

 

But it's really choppy now, a nightmare to trade. I guess so many jumped on the gold bandwagon that a lot of jittery fellows are selling out of fear 2000 won't be reached. That and the fear that USD might get a bit stronger again.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2020 by Logosone