I've seen the grim reality of Thailand without tourists – and it isn't pretty

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space

Whoop whoop ! You cut 20% of ALL gdp from any country and they are in trouble.

 

Plus, that near 20% support maybe another 10%+ of other GDP businesses.

 

No tourism has knock on effects other than paying just the people involved in tourism - those people buy cars, houses, send money back to villages, eat out buy furniture,etc 

 

Watch this space comment should be 'watch this space as Thais go bankrupt, homeless and penniless'

[rumak]

13 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

of course the welfare in Thailand is very far from the ones in the west

but at some point there is a welfare existing, the 30 bahts health scheme

the pension paid monthly to old people and the disabled, free state schools

and even a financial help for the ones losing their jobs.

   "pension"  starts at 60 years old,  and is 600 baht month.    

[Eindhoven]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Total Tourism is approx 18% of GDP including domestic Tourism, International incoming Tourism accounts for between 7-9% of GDP at the moment Thai's that used to go overseas for the vacation's are more than likely to spend their vacation time in Thailand

which will reduce the impact of international tourism down to 5-7% of GDP

 

I read that two thirds of the income from Tourism comes from foreign tourists.

Do you have any figures that back up your assertion?

 

[Chelseafan]

22 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

Even at 51% it's more than manageable

how many years before to be at 100% or more ?

They have the time to find alternatives solutions.

 

They borrow money only because they want

they could print money or use a part of the tons of foreign reserves

but doing this the Baht should be weakened, and a weaker baht is good

for exportations and tourism, but not when you are busy buying expensives

military toys in China or if you are a wealthy Thai putting your assets in safety

places in europe or USA.

 

Don't forget Thai politic is not intended to make Thai people feel better

the country is runned like a private corporation in charge of the interests

of the 0,1% of the richest Thai people 

 

I agree 51% is managable...for now, but they have just lost around 20% of their GDP from Tourism on top of which their export market is significantly down by 11% YoY, even worse for May, June and July at around 19%. Also remember, until a month ago their borrowing was 35%. That's a big increase with reduced means of repayment.

 

Thailands foreign reserves are around $250m which in the grand scheme of things is peanuts. Nice to have on paper but won't go far if they ever use it. It's also the highest its ever been since 1960 which suggests that this is very much at the top end.

 

As for the 0.1%. Agreed.

 

[kingofthemountain]

1 minute ago, rumak said:

   "pension"  starts at 60 years old,  and is 600 baht month.    

I know

and i agree it's not enough

but it's something

the ''pension'' idea is relatively new in Thailand (1990)

https://www3.gpf.or.th/eng2012/about_thaipension.asp

[rumak]

4 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

as Thais go bankrupt, homeless and penniless'

Thais used to know how to get by on little.   And they used to be quite resilient and resourceful

 

Americans used to be free spirited, kind,  and hard working

 

The world used to be a much simpler place.  And much less populated.

 

Phuket used to be an island paradise. 

 

to be continued..............

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

I know

and i agree it's not enough

but it's something

the ''pension'' idea is relatively new in Thailand (1990)

https://www3.gpf.or.th/eng2012/about_thaipension.asp

It is why you see poor old granny and grandpa out in the fields toiling away, or selling things in the Talad, to make ends meet when they  have no one to care for them.

[Eindhoven]

 

 

58 minutes ago, Chivas said:

As I said here a couple days ago if Thailand is suffering so much why are its Foreign Currency Reserves at record levels and now the 8th highest in the World having increased another $30 Billion since February to sit at over $250 Billion in total......

 

US$250,000,000,000 can be wiped out in a New York minute. 

[david555]

Today i saw that the Kasikorn exchange booth at Tesco Lotus south, that was not open long time anymore ,...was now torally removed and letting a big open spot besides the group of ATM's ....probably now even the banks giving up on revived tourism 

[BritManToo]

13 minutes ago, rumak said:

 

More like ......

 

[spiekerjozef]

3 hours ago, Surelynot said:

The UK, for instance, has taken a similar hit, but it is not going to be on an ongoing basis

Cases in Europe are on the rise. France has already more cases a day now then in April still nobody closes their borders. They are all in full lockdown again in September.

[RichardColeman]

14 minutes ago, rumak said:

Thais used to know how to get by on little.   And they used to be quite resilient and resourceful

Yes, but the modern generations do not want to be sat in a house of sticks and corrugated tin with no net access

[vinny41]

23 minutes ago, Eindhoven said:

 

I read that two thirds of the income from Tourism comes from foreign tourists.

Do you have any figures that back up your assertion?

 

These are the countries most reliant on your tourism dollars

No 21 Thailand 9.82 % of GDP

https://qz.com/1724042/the-countries-most-reliant-on-tourism-for-gdp/

According to the Tourism Authority of Thailand, the number of Thais travelling overseas were 8.79 million last year, up 7.23 per cent and they spent a combined worth Bt276 billion.

https://www.nationthailand.com/Tourism/30349409#:~:text=According to the Tourism Authority,with global median of %242.443.

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Total nonsense. The $100 billion (yes, about 3.3 trillion baht!) Thailand takes in from tourism annually reverberates out in countless ways. Even the rural folks benefit. Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income is from expats. Countless business employing many. To say it is insignificant, is a blatant misunderstanding of Thai economics. Thousands of hotels, restaurants, countless airlines and many tour companies, also benefit. 

 

This hapless administration needs to develop some courage and initiative. They can't hide from the world forever. Extreme timidity from supposedly tough men is an amusing thing to witness. However, the pain they are inflicting on millions is not. 

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.

Would point out all the Ho's in Pattaya are sending their earnings straight back to their families and kids in rural locations.

 

Would also ask how many rural Thai's are living off your money, because most of the posters here seem to be paying for a vast extended rural Thai family.

 

I'm 100% funding 3 that aren't blood related to me.

And partially funding another on the side.

Edited August 28, 2020 by BritManToo

[Chassa]

24 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income is from expats.

Expats NOT tourists!

[Pilotman]

28 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Total nonsense. The $100 billion (yes, about 3.3 trillion baht!) Thailand takes in from tourism annually reverberates out in countless ways. Even the rural folks benefit. Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income is from expats. Countless business employing many. To say it is insignificant, is a blatant misunderstanding of Thai economics. Thousands of hotels, restaurants, countless airlines and many tour companies, also benefit. 

 

This hapless administration needs to develop some courage and initiative. They can't hide from the world forever. Extreme timidity from supposedly tough men is an amusing thing to witness. However, the pain they are inflicting on millions is not. 

We will see. 

[Pilotman]

2 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

 

I somewhat disagree on this. Tourist money filters through the economy in ways we don't even think about. That restaurant that's just closed down has now put people out of work, it's reduced the income of a wholesaler and in turn reduced the income of food processors/farms so more jobs lost at a local level.

What Thailand should be doing is taking this opportunity to wean themselves off the Tourism drug.

 

and that I think is what they are doing.  What people seem to be dismissing is that the Generals run this place and they are, by nature training and experience, able to accept risks that professional politicians will not take, just to achieve a strategic aim.  As I say, we will see, but all is not what it seems. 

[Pilotman]

2 hours ago, Eindhoven said:

 

What are you thinking? Did you read what you wrote?

 

18% of GDP and not vital?? 4,000,000 people out of work and not vital??

7 people thanked you because they live in a bubble where they are not affected.

 

Just because you don't see the suffering doesn't mean that no one is suffering. Some people will take advantage of the situation, buying up assets cheap, but that doesn't mean that millions are not suffering because of the collapse of the tourism industry.

as I have said earlier, Generals run this place and their acceptance of risk and  of incidental casualties of taking those risks, is far different to that of professional politicians, if it achieves their long term strategic aims and objectives.  It is not all it seems. . 

[rattlesnake]

4 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

My thoughts exactly. Most Thais I know see less foreigners as a good thing.

[Destiny1990]

At least its clear how life is going to be for the locals if the focus will remain on isolation instead of welcoming foreigners for both long and short staying.

[BritManToo]

17 minutes ago, Chassa said:

Expats NOT tourists!

When the female boss of TAT came to Chiang Mai she considered all expats as tourists.

Nobody could tell her any different, she didn't care ....... foreigners = tourists.

 

[Scot123]

4 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Very bizarre post and very misinformed.  First there is quite a lot of foreigners living in these rural communities that you talk of (I was one for 10 years). There were 3 foreigners in the area all pumping in money into the local economies (I was pumping a million baht a year). There are plenty of Thai families surviving from money given by foreigners. Do you realise how many Thais who live abroad and send money home and now find themselves unable to visit family on holiday. Then to think that nearly 20% of GDP is nothing, Wow! 

[Scot123]

It really saddens me that so many on here are so bitter and filled with hatred to other expats or their own countrymen. Nasty and bitter.

[GeorgeCross]

 

6 minutes ago, gillap said:

Light at the end of the tunnel... an effective vaccine???

Really...! You want to get chipped! Because this is what it's all about! Corona virus...does that tell anyone anything... it's a VIRUS unless we are not told the truth! They've been trying for years to find a vaccine for Aids with no success! So good luck finding a vaccine for covid 19 and it's many strain. Maybe an antidote might be found...ask Gates he knows. And what Russia has come up with is probably that...an antidote...! Gates wants to chip everybody...it means billions for him and it's part of the conspiracy to control the sheeples! Stay away from vaccines and 5G networks is my advice to everyone who doesn't want to become a cyborg!

 

jah, ok bud. maybe lay off the funny baccy for a bit eh?

 

[Pilotman]

1 minute ago, Scot123 said:

Very bizarre post and very misinformed.  First there is quite a lot of foreigners living in these rural communities that you talk of (I was one for 10 years). There were 3 foreigners in the area all pumping in money into the local economies (I was pumping a million baht a year). There are plenty of Thai families surviving from money given by foreigners. Do you realise how many Thais who live abroad and send money home and now find themselves unable to visit family on holiday. Then to think that nearly 20% of GDP is nothing, Wow! 

we will see.  Macro economics is far more complex than you  seem to be inferring here. A few expats in rural communities does not an economy make. Many more 'dependent economies' have been re alighted in the past, this just may be one more example. 

[Oliver Holzerfilled]

3 hours ago, DaLa said:

Yes , I agree the numbers are overall smaller. And yes we did buy steel from other countries that then cost the UK through lack of export revenue. However the impact on certain areas were devastating, just as the lack of tourists is hitting the likes of Pattaya here.  I'm in no way suggesting this is easy for anyone in the tourist business here and I would welcome a quick return to relative normality. I spend a few days each month down in Cha Am and have noticed the girly bar area is almost dead, but the beach at the weekend, the market and overall business has resumed to a degree.

My point was that loosing your business or having a major economic driver change in your industry is not unique.

 

Losing it overnight is unique.

[Chassa]

8 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

When the female boss of TAT came to Chiang Mai she considered all expats as tourists.

Nobody could tell her any different, she didn't care ....... foreigners = tourists.

 

A believer in TAT...........WOW!

[Pilotman]

4 minutes ago, Scot123 said:

It really saddens me that so many on here are so bitter and filled with hatred to other expats or their own countrymen. Nasty and bitter.

It saddens, but doesn't surprise me, that with a bag full of their usual western arrogance, many expats seem to think that the Thai economy revolves around them,  It isn't true, nowhere close,  and they may find that out to their cost in coming months and years. "Wake up and smell the coffee" seems an appropriate phrase here. 

[bkk6060]

1 hour ago, kingofthemountain said:

I know

and i agree it's not enough

but it's something

the ''pension'' idea is relatively new in Thailand (1990)

https://www3.gpf.or.th/eng2012/about_thaipension.asp

I will look forward to a thread on: how to live in Thailand on 20 bucks a month.