Thailand Has Excellent COVID-19 Screening System

[davemos]

15 hours ago, DrTuner said:

It's nowhere near efficient simply because the PCR test is not that accurate. That's why you are doing the 14 day quarantine. But hey keep on blowing hot air.

 

[richard_smith237]

10 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Correct. 

Can not trust the foreign doctor. When they return we test, two time, quarantine 14 days. Successful way. Responsible.

 

An addition point here is that a lot of the Private Covid-19 PCR tests are ‘self tests’ which are then posted off to a lab. 

 

For example: I took a Covid-19 PCR test myself. I self administer the swab, taking sample from the back of my throat (gag inducing) and high up my nasal cavity. I drove my test to the lab and awaited 2 days for the results. 

 

The flaw here is that I could have made so many mistakes with self administering of the test, or had someone else take the test on my behalf. 

 

Testing on arrival is the only surefire way of knowing. 

[richard_smith237]

2 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Probably more than 58 deaths and 3500 or so cases...but even if you doubled or trebbled the numbers it would still be among the lowest in the world. There isn't much testing, but if virus numbers were anywhere near those of the countries you mention, hospitals and morgues would be overrun and there's no way the government could hide this in our social media era. The fact we don't see this supports the contention that the presence of the virus is very low to non-existant in Thailand.

 

Do the maths - a huge increase in numbers would not overwhelm the hospitals.

 

An additional 20,000 or even 50,000 deaths would hardly be noticeable when spread across 1002 public and 316 private hospitals - its an increase of 3 deaths per month per hospital. 

 

 

 

[Yinn]

1 minute ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

An addition point here is that a lot of the Private Covid-19 PCR tests are ‘self tests’ which are then posted off to a lab. 

 

For example: I took a Covid-19 PCR test myself. I self administer the swab, taking sample from the back of my throat (gag inducing) and high up my nasal cavity. I drove my test to the lab and awaited 2 days for the results. 

 

The flaw here is that I could have made so many mistakes with self administering of the test, or had someone else take the test on my behalf. 

 

Testing on arrival is the only surefire way of knowing. 

many countrys have many flaw, conspiracy loon, anti maskers, anti vaxxers, protesters, riots, statues, right wing QAnon, left wing snowflake etc etc. 

= million will be dead

 

thailand trust them?? No way. 

 

Life again is relax in Ranong. We have ZERO case. Diligent= success.

[Bluetongue]

6 hours ago, SteveK said:

So you believe that Thailand has had 58 deaths vs 30k France, 178k USA, 41k UK etc?

 

You must be braindead.  They simply are not testing.

Taiwan has very few deaths, they have not tested much, much less than Thailand actually. Are they also not to be believed?

[richard_smith237]

10 minutes ago, Yinn said:

17 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

An addition point here is that a lot of the Private Covid-19 PCR tests are ‘self tests’ which are then posted off to a lab. 

 

For example: I took a Covid-19 PCR test myself. I self administer the swab, taking sample from the back of my throat (gag inducing) and high up my nasal cavity. I drove my test to the lab and awaited 2 days for the results. 

 

The flaw here is that I could have made so many mistakes with self administering of the test, or had someone else take the test on my behalf. 

 

Testing on arrival is the only surefire way of knowing. 

many countrys have many flaw, conspiracy loon, anti maskers, anti vaxxers, protesters, riots, statues, right wing QAnon, left wing snowflake etc etc. 

= million will be dead

 

thailand trust them?? No way. 

 

Life again is relax in Ranong. We have ZERO case. Diligent= success.

 

Unfortunately, there is a great deal of mistrust. 

 

Governments are behaving as if those in every other country are poisonous. 

 

People arriving in the UK from the countryside in France are expected to quarantine themselves, where as those arriving in the countryside in the UK from London are not expected to quarantine. Of course a line has to be drawn somewhere. 

 

 

One additional point: IF there is no testing in Ranong, you have no idea if you have zero cases or not. 

 

At least the absence or very low testing in Thailand is minimising the hysteria and life within Thailand continues without massive paranoia. 

 

That said: IF there are no cases in Thailand, why the requirement for continued mask wearing and social isolation? I’m perfectly happy to wear a mask if that is what’s required. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by richard_smith237

[The Barmbeker]

9 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The WHO, foreign governments, and the international news media does...but I guess you have access to resources and sources that they don't so know the true numbers. Care to share them with us? 

You are aware that all these agencies are working with the numbers, given to them by the Thais,,,,right!?

 

[richard_smith237]

5 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

6 hours ago, SteveK said:

So you believe that Thailand has had 58 deaths vs 30k France, 178k USA, 41k UK etc?

 

You must be braindead.  They simply are not testing.

Taiwan has very few deaths, they have not tested much, much less than Thailand actually. Are they also not to be believed?

 

Until a large swathe of the population is tested the true numbers are unknown. 

 

True information involves testing for existing cases (PCR test) and also carrying out antibody testing to find out how much of the population has previously been exposed. 

 

With very little testing, very little is known. Thus, Taiwan could have plenty of unknown, asymptomatic cases. 

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by richard_smith237

[rvaviator]

How does overall death per month compare this year from previous years?  Is that statistic available for Thailand now ? 

[sungod]

7 hours ago, SteveK said:

So you believe that Thailand has had 58 deaths vs 30k France, 178k USA, 41k UK etc?

 

You must be braindead.  They simply are not testing.

Who cares if they are good at suppressing the virus or the numbers,fact is whatever they are doing its better than all those 'developed' 'braindead' countries working themselves into a tizzy.  Life has returned to normal, apart from tourism of course.

[vermin on arrival]

59 minutes ago, Yinn said:

many countrys have many flaw, conspiracy loon, anti maskers, anti vaxxers, protesters, riots, statues, right wing QAnon, left wing snowflake etc etc. 

= million will be dead

 

thailand trust them?? No way. 

 

Life again is relax in Ranong. We have ZERO case. Diligent= success.

Actually there was most likely nothing to worry about Yinn since purely asymptomatic cases are most likely immune and non-infectious. The panic caused by that egyptian was most likely completely unwarranted and Thai diligence most likely had nothing to do with the result of 0 cases.

[sungod]

4 hours ago, cmarshall said:

For some of the expats here their most deeply held conviction is of the utter inferiority of everything Thai, especially compared to the West.  In fact, the public health system in Thailand is quite good.  Do you think the S. Koreans, Taiwanese, Vietnamese, New Zealanders, Greeks and others are all lying?

Many Expats just couldn't accept that Thailand is good at something, baffling why many by choice live in a place that fails so miserably at everything..........

[vermin on arrival]

1 hour ago, Bluetongue said:

Taiwan has very few deaths, they have not tested much, much less than Thailand actually. Are they also not to be believed?

I have followed Taiwan rigorously and my conclusion is that there numbers are just as fraudulent. Death figures are probably more accurate. The decision by the Taiwan CECC to cancel the antibody test being undertaken in Changhua County by NTU in which there were only 19 confirmed cases, but the antibody tests were pulling up loads who had been infected proved it to me. One of the reason given was that it might cause a panic if it was revealed that Taiwan still had cases and may lead to outbreaks if people ended who were positive might end up going to hospital and infecting others in Taiwanese society. Financial constraints are also a factor. Most likely there were thousands of people with mild or asymptomatic case that were overlooked. Taiwan's internal policy is to only test people with severe symptoms. In addition there are many cases of returnees from Taiwan testing positive. Here are a couple of links and there are actually more of these "mystery cases". Here are the links from Taiwan news.

 

Positive cases found in mass local COVID-19 antibody test: experts

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3983632

 

NTU, Changhua balk at posting antibody test results of 10,000 Taiwanese

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3993611

 

Taiwan healthcare system would collapse under general coronavirus screening: Minister

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3992897

 

 

Taiwan returnees test positive for coronavirus in Laos, Vietnam, and Shanghai

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3990475

 

NTU professor says Belgian case most likely infected in Taipei in June

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3980229

 

Japanese man tests positive for coronavirus after leaving Taiwan

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3980974

 

Taiwan looking into claim that Malaysia imported a coronavirus case from the island

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3987566

 

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[vermin on arrival]

14 minutes ago, sungod said:

Many Expats just couldn't accept that Thailand is good at something, baffling why many by choice live in a place that fails so miserably at everything..........

I think they are doing a good job now, but from Jan to the time of the emergency decree not so much.

[richard_smith237]

7 minutes ago, sungod said:

Many Expats just couldn't accept that Thailand is good at something, baffling why many by choice live in a place that fails so miserably at everything..........

 

Thats a rather dumbed down over simplification and fails to recognise the spectrum of opinions while attempting to pigeon-hole expats into two simplified categories; either ‘believe the figures and love Thailand' or 'question the figures and hate Thailand’ 

 

The questioning of the official Covid-19 figures has little to do with ‘not accepting Thailand is good at something’ and more to do with applying some critical thought to the numbers when recognising that Thailand is a statistical outlier. 

 

Given the published figures I too am cynical of Thailands Covid-19 numbers. 

 

This has very little to do with the ‘rest of Thailand’ or whether or not Thailand is an enjoyable place to live.

 

 

 

[hotchilli]

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Mr Anutin said the screening system included COVID-19 tests before travelers board their planes and after they land. Besides, arrivals must be quarantined for 14 days, during which time they will be repeatedly tested for the disease.

If flyers have to have "fit to fly certificates" and are tested before boarding, why are so many found to be infected when they enter Thailand?

[vermin on arrival]

3 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

If flyers have to have "fit to fly certificates" and are tested before boarding, why are so many found to be infected when they enter Thailand?

The thai returnees are not required to be tested prior to their return if my recollection is correct and only must have fit to fly, but I think someone else should verify this. i might be way off.

Edited August 29, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[richard_smith237]

Just now, hotchilli said:

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Mr Anutin said the screening system included COVID-19 tests before travelers board their planes and after they land. Besides, arrivals must be quarantined for 14 days, during which time they will be repeatedly tested for the disease.

If flyers have to have "fit to fly certificates" and are tested before boarding, why are so many found to be infected when they enter Thailand?

 

A number of reasons: 

- Repatriating Thai’s do not need a pre-flight Covid-19 PCR test

- Covid-19 may not show up initially even with a PCR test (it can take unto 5 days to show in a test)

- Covid-19 ‘could’ be contracted in the 72hrs between the time the test is take and the time someone boards a flight

- Covid-19 ‘could’ be contracted on the flight itself (from one of the Thai’s who have not been tested)

 

This all highlights that nothing is water tight, but quarantine is catching cases which would have otherwise entered the community. 

 

That said: Had those cases entered the community would there be a massive outbreak.

The key objective in controlling the spread of Covid-19 through a community is to limit the spread rate - R Value at less than R1.

 

The aim of Thailand on the other hand seems to be eradication of the virus from its shores. It would appear that Thailand has been successful at this, however, this comes at great economic cost. 

 

Many are wondering if the economic cost and the potential for 25% unemployment is not too great compared to the compromise of allowing tourism (with test - track & trace) and keeping the spread rate below R1.

 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

5 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

8 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

If flyers have to have "fit to fly certificates" and are tested before boarding, why are so many found to be infected when they enter Thailand?

The thai returnees are not required to be tested prior to their return if my recollection is correct and only must have fit to fly, but I think someone else should verify this. i might be way off.

 

I was astounded that Thai’s did not require a Pre-Flight Covid-19 PCR test (negative) when I travelled back on a repatriation flight a month ago.

 

The question was asked on ThaiVisa.com at that time - a number of other posters confirmed that their Thai friends or Wives did not require pre-flight Covid-19 PCR test. 

 

If you believe Yinn, its because Thailand doesn’t trust foreign doctors !!! 

 

In reality - if going into quarantine a test on arrival is sufficient from Thailands perspective. 

From a personal perspective, not having a pre-flight Covid-19 test places those in the ‘high risk groups’ are place at elevated risk on the repatriation flights. 

 

One rule for one, one for another when the concerns are so high seems at odds with the extreme requirements and is thus somewhat hypocritical. 

[dabhand]

1 hour ago, rvaviator said:

How does overall death per month compare this year from previous years?  Is that statistic available for Thailand now ? 

The NYT had an article giving such stats. Included was Thailand for the period Mar/Apr with an indication that the death rate was considered normal. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

Other studies may arrive at different outcomes, but the NYT article appears to be well researched. 

[cmarshall]

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

There are 1318 hospitals in Thailand. 

 

Thailands death rate is 7.068 per 1000 of population. Approx 500,000 people die each year anyway. 

IF there were 20,000 or even 50,000 additional deaths, would it be noticed when decided amongst all the hospitals ???

 

Of course, not everyone dies - for arguments sake, say 50% of people die in a hospital. Thats 250,000 across 1600 hospitals: 

 

Would an extra 3 deaths per month be noticeable ????

 

 

Looking at the numbers vs the argument that if there were more covid-19 it would be noticeable, I don’t think it would. The vast majority of cases are asymptomatic anyway and thus not noticeable if there is little testing and spread amongst the hospitals an additional handful of deaths per month is also not really notable. 

 

Of course there are flaws in the above logic with regards to population clusters etc, however the point is made to highlight the relatively small numbers and the fact that it would be easy not to notice higher numbers.

 

If Covid were widespread in Thailand, even more noticeable than the excess deaths would be the excess hospitalizations, because the Covid sick vastly outnumber the dying.  But we never heard reports of hospitals filled to capacity as we have heard in Arizona, New York, and Northern Italy.   In fact, the problem that the Thai hospitals have faced in the pandemic is just the opposite: underutilization.  That explains why some posters here, including myself, have started getting marketing calls from Bangkok hospitals flogging flu shots for the first time since we have been in Thailand.  Reports of people who have visited hospitals in the past five months are that they are indeed empty, since the public has been avoiding them as possible sources of infection.

 

So, the only way to "support" the narrative of a vast hidden Covid epidemic in the absence of any actual evidence to support it, is to reason from a supposed conspiracy.  Conspiracy theories are not falsifiable and are therefore junk.  

[DavisH]

14 hours ago, SteveK said:

Yinn wake up. If you think that Thailand has used its superior intellect, organisational abilities, openness and sheer brainpower to "control" this virus then you need to go back to school. They either aren't testing, aren't reporting, or are *severely* suppressing the numbers. Probably all of the above. I don't believe any of the Thai numbers.

 

Dishonesty is a way of life here. 

 

Frankly it's amazing that western countries believe the stupid figures put out by Thailand about coronavirus.

What is your evidence of the existence of active coronavirus cases in Thailand? That's right. You have nothing. You are just another moaning farang. Please leave Thailand and do NOT return.

[cmarshall]

26 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

The aim of Thailand on the other hand seems to be eradication of the virus from its shores. It would appear that Thailand has been successful at this, however, this comes at great economic cost. 

This is only true if you believe that in the absence of a government objective to eradicate the virus, the economy would be humming along normally.  But that's ridiculous.  There are no restrictions on domestic flights in the US and yet airline capacity is down to 25% to 30% of normal.  People don't want to take the risk.  

 

The only way to reduce the damage to the economy in a country like the US which has completely lost control is to institute a total, nationwide Wuhan-style lockdown for ten weeks or more until the new infection rate drops to a level low enough for the government to implement the best practices for epidemic control: test either widely or focused on clusters of infection, isolate the positives, by force if necessary, and trace all their contacts.  Once that level of control is achieved the economy can resume to something approaching normalcy with periodic local interruptions to regain control after an outbreak.  China locked down Wuhan for eleven weeks and now Wuhan is Covid-free.  Failure to adopt such a program will certainly prolong the epidemic, perhaps indefinitely.

 

So, that's what Biden is going to have to do in January if he is elected.  There will be outrage and shootings probably, but three months later when the economy can begin to recover the wisdom of that approach will be apparent.

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, davemos said:

 

I think the unelected "PM" and his "government" will keep the 14 day quarantine as long as they can get away with it, again it is mostly down to money, about double the price for hotels and meals, plus the extras for testing etc. How many pockets are being filled in that lot for the connected?

[richard_smith237]

5 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

I think the unelected "PM" and his "government" will keep the 14 day quarantine as long as they can get away with it, again it is mostly down to money, about double the price for hotels and meals, plus the extras for testing etc. How many pockets are being filled in that lot for the connected?

 

To be honest - I don’t think the ASQ hotels were a rip off. 

 

I paid 45,000 baht for 15 days

- Private transport from Airport (1000 baht)

- includes 2 Covid-19 tests (6000 baht each)

- 3 meals per day (±600 baht per day outsourced to a local bakery)

 

 

thus 33,000 baht for the hotel 

 

Thats 2200 Baht per night for a hotel which last year cost 2000 baht per night (booking.com room only).

2200 per night includes 3 meals (±600 baht per day outsourced to a local bakery), thus 1600 baht per night. 

 

1540 per night doesn’t seem quite so crazy.

 

-------

 

That said money is obviously funnelled in a direction whereby it would not otherwise be funnelled - hotels would otherwise be empty and the hospitals are making some money on the 12,000 baht of Covid-19 test.

 

But, I don’t see the quarantine requirement as having been instigated as a money spinner / money making opportunity. I think it can be taken at face value - its just a requirement for people to be quarantined. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Phoenix Rising]

15 hours ago, SteveK said:

This guy epitomises for me many of the things that are currently wrong with this country.

What?? When Gen Prayuth couped the elected government back in 2015 he promised to reform the country and, by Buddha, he's delivered. Gone are the days of rampant corruption, cronyism and nepotism and what we see today is a merit based society. A great example is the health minister - clearly he's over-qualified for the job! 

Today, the police are a moral force only interested in the good of the country and the military, with it's thousands of generals, admirals and air marshals, are solely focused on protecting the borders. Case in point are the much needed submarines that will be tied up alongside the aircraftless aircraft carrier in Sattahip. That carrier has been there since 1996 and in all that time Thailand has never been invaded. Do you need more proof that it's working??

Edited August 29, 2020 by Phoenix Rising

[NoshowJones]

1 minute ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

To be honest - I don’t think the ASQ hotels were a rip off. 

 

I paid 45,000 baht for 15 days

- Private transport from Airport (1000 baht)

- includes 2 Covid-19 tests (6000 baht each)

- 3 meals per day (±600 baht per day outsourced to a local bakery)

 

 

thus 33,000 baht for the hotel 

 

Thats 2200 Baht per night for a hotel which last year cost 2000 baht per night (booking.com room only).

2200 per night includes 3 meals (±600 baht per day outsourced to a local bakery), thus 1600 baht per night. 

 

1540 per night doesn’t seem quite so crazy.

 

-------

 

That said money is obviously funnelled in a direction whereby it would not otherwise be funnelled - hotels would otherwise be empty and the hospitals are making some money on the 12,000 baht of Covid-19 test.

 

But, I don’t see the quarantine requirement as having been instigated as a money spinner / money making opportunity. I think it can be taken at face value - its just a requirement for people to be quarantined. 

 

 

 

 

 

So no one is making any extra money out of this. I don't believe that for a second. Who decides which hotels get the business? There's one brown envelope for a start.

What connection do the hotels have to the authorities?

[MRToMRT]

19 hours ago, YetAnother said:

one of the things i really like about this fool, similar to the PM and watch deputy PM, whenever they open their mouths publicly there wont be one iota of valuable content resulting

Much as I dislike the man, one needs to consider that he probably said a lot lot more but the article only gives us one paragraph to comment on. 

[vermin on arrival]

52 minutes ago, dabhand said:

The NYT had an article giving such stats. Included was Thailand for the period Mar/Apr with an indication that the death rate was considered normal. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

Other studies may arrive at different outcomes, but the NYT article appears to be well researched. 

Well BBC gives Thai excess deaths for March as 2,400. Doesn't include those from Feb or Jan. Starting in April the stats go down the normal after the emergency decree and lockdown. So per usual with most everything Covid related there are sources supporting both sides.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 hours ago, The Barmbeker said:

You are aware that all these agencies are working with the numbers, given to them by the Thais,,,,right!?

 

Of course...who else would be supplying them with Covid data from Thailand...it's the same for their data from all countries.