Hard truths about travelling to Thailand, right now

[Skeptic7]

13 hours ago, Kadilo said:

and common sense...

[Andy from Kent]

11 hours ago, alfalfa19 said:

i hear there are other places with the things people travel to thailand for. 

 

 

What are you talking about?

[CapeTown]

12 hours ago, thaitero said:

The hard truth is that mass tourism is over. People should look ahead not dreaming "old times",,

That cannot be true because this is a problem at home as much as abroad. 

[androokery]

7 hours ago, Guderian said:

A good start to the article with a fair description of how things are in Thailand. Telling us that only 50 Elite visa holders have been able to return so far in total is useful and interesting, why can't be get more solid information like that? Kudos to the author.

 

But then it all (predictably) goes downhill as soon as the author starts the ritual wailing and gnashing of teeth about the grim situation in the tourism industry. There are three points to make in reply here, just in case the author or anyone else has missed them.

 

Firstly, the author essentially concludes by asking, or rather lamenting, why Thailand isn't doing something that no other country in the world has managed to do, i.e. reopen to tourism safely without quarantine. Why do you need to ask such a vacuous question? Thailand is far from being the only country that has a significant tourist industry but remains closed to most visitors for the safety of its general population. Don't you think that advanced economies like Japan and New Zealand would have figured out how to do this if it was so easy?

 

Secondly, look at what is happening in parts of Europe and the US where tourism was allowed this summer. Almost entire countries, like Wales, are now effectively in lockdown, though it's termed 'local' in the UK, with all the negative consequences for the non-tourism part of the economy. Something like 85%-90% of Thailand's economy dies not depend on foreign tourists, and the largest part of it is ticking over quite nicely at the moment. Why on earth would you risk having to shut down large swathes of that just so the 10%-15% that does depend on foreign tourists can make a few dollars again? Imperil high-tech factories for the sake of some manky, mass-market hotels, bars and tourist attractions in Pattaya and Phuket, that doesn't make much financial sense.

 

And thirdly, forget fancy models like the Imperial College one, we now have actual data as to what happens when countries reopen to tourism, even with certain limited controls applied at national level, and it isn't a pretty sight. Remember that this disaster is still ongoing and likely to get worse before it starts getting better.

 

 

And also remember that Thailand has an ageing population, not quite as bad as Japan's but heading in that direction, so if the virus does get a serious foothold here, it's consequences in terms of deaths are likely to be far worse than they have been in countries with a younger demographic.

 

 

You’ve made a fundamental mistake in your argument. 20% of GDP does not equate to 20% of the population. It would if everyone had the same income and had an equal share in everything. You probably know that’s not the case in Thailand. I would argue that tourism is exactly the type of business that impacts a lot of people, where a lot of people can reap a tiny bit of advantage each. 

[CapeTown]

12 hours ago, thaitero said:

The hard truth is that mass tourism is over. People should look ahead not dreaming "old times",,

That cannot be true because this is a problem at home as much as abroad. 

[sawadee1947]

12 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

I read the other day 38 have died this year because of dengue fever with 60.000 effected.  Many thousands die on the roads each year and little is done to curb that.  The flu takes many many people each year.  People die from diabetes, cancer, lung disease, suicide.  So,  to those in power and to us normal people death is an everyday thing, it happens everyday for whatever reason yet the Wuhan China virus is being treated differently.  Why?  Is it a power game?  Prayuths much loved emergency decrees seem to be coming every month on a regular basis now.  Honestly I am finding it hard to understand how they can destroy the economy and effect many millions when only 59 have died.

And I thought Troll comments should be removed 

[from the home of CC]

14 hours ago, webfact said:

It’s time to replace fear with professional management of this inconvenient virus

what nationality was this person who wrote this? please tell me, I'm in need of a good laugh.. 

[Blumpie]

9 hours ago, Donga said:

 

UK been allowing everyone back from Spain and other non-safe countries without any testing at the airports. Their contact tracing is poor. Don't believe they temp check anywhere. Wouldn't follow their lead at all.

Germany and Singapore by comparison are allowing people from safe countries, with testing, but without quarantine. This is they way for Thailand to go. Most of the region is now safe.

In Japan, South Korea, Australia, NZ, Malaysia and Singapore, the chances of someone having Covid-19 is now less than one in 20,000 compared to around one in 1,000 average in Europe and higher in the US.

Taiwan, Vietnam one in a mill and China one in 8 mill.

Thailand can open up it's tourism to safe countries (less than 1/20,000, risk prior to testing) with tiny odds of any outbreak, which the Thais know how to manage, as they did before.

Too many people are suffering, bring them in safely.

 

I think you may not understand that countries are not necessarily allowing their citizens to leave to sit on a beach and have a drink.  Did you know that nobody can leave Australia?  NZ is very difficult.  

 

Do you know what you are typing about here?  

 

The fact is you could throw the doors open and nothing would happen.  

[CapeTown]

The possibilities for this government are limited. It's probably not a good idea to  count on the cavalry to come and vaccinate the world. The current covit gold-standard approach is not enough for those with big interests in hotels or insurance, let alone (which is unthinkable) the Thai people themselves.

 

Realistically, they need to adapt to a new world. There is enough experience and understanding to do a good job of this now.

 

First, they must stop trying to serve minority interests (big hotels and Thai insurance groups) and think big picture about the needs of the Thai people.

 

The trouble starts at the borders, true. So select tourists from safe countries. Countries in trouble will move next year from red to green list.

 

Covid will get in sooner or later, so best to avert the public and prepare the medical infrastructure.

 

Alternatively, wait a little while longer and be overthrown. Start real mass support schemes. Re-engineer the economy to switch millions out of tourism into a new sector capable of replacing 25% GDP. 

 

Need to grasp the bull by the horns as sitting on hands is a mighty costly and risky waste of an economy.

Edited October 6, 2020 by CapeTown

[CapeTown]

21 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

what nationality was this person who wrote this? please tell me, I'm in need of a good laugh.. 

It is an appropriate conclusion the author of the piece has drawn from an excellent summary of the current situation.

Edited October 6, 2020 by CapeTown

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, motdaeng said:

i do not agree, for sure it will take time ... btw. how did thailand recovering from the 2004 tsunami? 

???????????????? The tsunami affected the Andaman coast and Phi Phi etc. It didn't affect any other part of Thailand which just carried on as normal.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 minutes ago, CapeTown said:

Start real mass support schemes. Re-engineer the economy to switch millions out of tourism into a new sector capable of replacing 25% GDP. 

Perhaps you know of such an alternative that hasn't already been used. I certainly don't.

 

[Flying Saucage]

5 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

???????????????? The tsunami affected the Andaman coast and Phi Phi etc. It didn't affect any other part of Thailand which just carried on as normal.

...and had a real government at that time, which led the country out of this crisis, and not a bunch of inept clowns in funny uniforms as it is the case today.

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[thaibeachlovers]

32 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

I think you may not understand that countries are not necessarily allowing their citizens to leave to sit on a beach and have a drink.  Did you know that nobody can leave Australia?  NZ is very difficult.  

 

Do you know what you are typing about here?  

 

The fact is you could throw the doors open and nothing would happen.  

Anyone wishing to leave NZ for a holiday could certainly do so if they could afford a flight, but on return they likely will have to pay themselves for 14 days isolation in an approved facility.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

...and had a real government at that time, which led the country out of this crisis, and not a bunch of inept clowns in funny uniforms as is the case today.

???????????????

On Phi Phi they even had to enlist farang volunteers to clean up the debris, so just what did the government do, exactly?

Edited October 6, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[rumak]

5 hours ago, Heng said:

People will just have to adapt.   Some people will simply continue to whine and moan.

Just the other day I was in a nice restaurant and , sure enough,  here was this farang complaining

about something.  Then he yells out " Waiter !   Whine for the lady ! "

[joecoolfrog]

15 hours ago, ukrules said:

I have a feeling nothing will change until the population are vaccinated.

 

I think you are probably correct.

The irony is that the vaccine itself will cause problems, it's never going to be anywhere near 100% effective yet many people will regard it as job done.

Prepare to see widespread disregard for the health protocols , from locals and visitors alike.

[Flying Saucage]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

??????????????? Certain people apparently used the opportunity to dispossess the legitimate owners of beachfront resorts north of Phuket, but I don't recall any "crisis" in other parts of Thailand.

On Phi Phi they even had to enlist farang volunteers to clean up the debris, so just what did the government do, exactly?

I agree with you, and especially I agree that the situation with the Tsunami cannot be compared at all with the situation today.

 

A small coast line was effected only, but today it's the complete country. The Tsunami was a local desaster, but not a crisis for the whole country. And other than in 2004, the government today shows not even the tiniest trace of professionalism or care for the country and its people.

[RocketDog]

15 hours ago, champers said:

Very good summary of where tourism is; or more accurately isn't; now. The future will be bleak unless and until there is a radical shift in strategy.

Bleak for many, including the tourism industry, but OK for a minority (?) of others. 

The lack of tourists doesn't bother me even a little. Except for wearing a mask life has changed little for me. Just less people at the beaches, malls, etc. A few venues have been closed such as theaters and small restaurants that I liked. 

 

I won't mention immigration because it can be easy or hard depending on day, hour, month, moon, sunspots, weather, etc. Same as usual in other words. 

 

I do sympathize with those whose lives have been disrupted trying to re-enter. 

[Truth Will Set You Free]

15 hours ago, webfact said:

Even the newly launched Special Tourist Visa is very special indeed. Applicants require plenty of cash and have to have the intention coming for at least 90 days, with the option of staying for up to 270 in total. But when you add the compulsory health insurance, only provided by Thai companies, doing all your bookings through the government’s private travel company Thailand Long Stay, flying on specially chartered flights, etc etc, the costs start to stack up. And you haven’t even bought a beer or had a massage at this stage!

I saw this coming before it was approved. Straight up racketeering process to keep tourist out.

 

For those of you that are Thai and can read, how are you explains it to the uneducated? They need work and money to support their families. What lies have you told them to give them hope knowing that your government has another agenda!

 

Here an oversight, the baht is still low! ???????????????? If the government was trying to get tourist back into the country, why would they not raise the baht so the tourist would afford to buy these Special Visa and insurance since it only provided by Thai companies? ????????????????

 

Well don’t get too over exited. The country your government wants so bad to get here, “China”, well they have money issues too if you have not been keeping up on them and there issues with the China Sea.  Plus if they come in, they don’t have the time to spend 90 days or more, not to mention 14 days in a room. Once they are out, what do you think they are going to do when 90% of the places are closed for business. 
 

Anyway, the only people that’s going to benefit from the racketeering are the government control companies. 

 

 

[teacherofwoe]

A couple I know just came back from a two week holiday. They visited resorts and beaches in Chonburi, Rayong, and Chanthaburi and had the beaches and resorts to themselves. With the discounts on offer, now is a great time to holiday in Thailand.

[RocketDog]

35 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps you know of such an alternative that hasn't already been used. I certainly don't.

 

E-waste and waste plastic/rubber disposal could work, and is already done here.

 

They just burn it beside the road. 

 

I suppose that could be scaled up into an international business. 

...................... 

On second thought, never mind. 

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, Truth Will Set You Free said:

Here an oversight, the baht is still low! ???????????????? If the government was trying to get tourist back into the country, why would they not raise the baht so the tourist would afford to buy these Special Visa and insurance since it only provided by Thai companies?

Think you have it backwards.  The THB is flying high and the other currencies are getting less in the exchange rates.  Makes no sense that the THB is high, except for the fact that the Thai Government does not print currency, and instead borrows billions from China to prop up the Thai economy and in doing so keeps the Baht flying high.

[Bogbrush]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Think you have it backwards.  The THB is flying high and the other currencies are getting less in the exchange rates.  

40 to £ and 31 to $;  pretty normal to me...

[unblocktheplanet]

Tourism is a dead horse, at least on a mass scale, and will be for a very long time to come. We should learn from the mistakes of other countries. Slow, very limited openings with full quarantine in time.

 

We need to adapt. The organic rice & produce & herbs sectors are a sure sell. They won't make as many wannabe fatcats as rich as did tourism but there will be ample jobs.

 

It's time to get creative & stay safe. Do the road accident tolls, dengue, chikungunya need to be addressed, too. Absolutely!

 

This is the perfect opportunity to fix all the stuff of inequality, selfishness, poor workmanship which have plagued us forever.

 

Let's get to it!

[LeoCesar]

P CoC has to go and so does all corrupt officials!

[Ganesh108]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

???????????????

On Phi Phi they even had to enlist farang volunteers to clean up the debris, so just what did the government do, exactly?

If I remember correctly some Farang helping clean up Khao Lak were arrested for working without WP.

Edited October 6, 2020 by Ganesh108

[jerolamo]

Good article, but you miss one specific point to add:

Thailand government doesn't test there own population enough to be able to talk about their own contamination level state.

They can not pretend seriously to be able to speak about something they do not measure.

Much more because some workers went out of Thailand, and at the border, was positive (and they were considerate as negative in Thailand just before to cross the border). So it is a proof that something is wrong there.

In Laos, they show very little cases and  death linked with COVID... but can we said that they do manage COVID the best all over the world ? Are you sure ? We can talk about all countries that have very low level of technology in land and show very little cases and death linked with COVID (and same, doesn't test so much...), can we said that they manage COVID so good ? Or can we said that, they don't test so much and then, sure, they don't have to much cases because of that ? Be logic one minute please...

We can also compare the COVID with other pandemic in world history and look at this story closer... but... do you really want to do that ? After, maybe people no more afraid COVID ? Do they have to ?

Can we speak seriously about all of this story with details and precision ? (or is it forbiden, and why ?)

[Chiphigh]

The entire virus overreaction is the biggest scam on earth. 

 

We have the data, we know the risk groups. 

 

Get over it and live. 

 

 

[roquefort]

17 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

The Thai government have backed themselves into a corner with all the fear mongering, they have nowhere to turn having spent the past 7 months vilifying foreigners as plague carriers. Slowly but surely everyone is beginning to realise that the dream of a vaccine coming along to save the day is nothing but a distant pipe dream.

Now they have to try to unwind every policy statement they have made since the pandemic began and try to open Thailand up on a science not fear lead basis which will be very very hard to do

Not just the Thai government, almost every government in the West (with the honourable exception of Sweden) have backed themselves into the same corner with fear mongering and lockdowns based on voodoo science.