Thai economy expected to contract in 2020, but will recover next year

[snoop1130]

Thai economy expected to contract in 2020, but will recover next year

 

 

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, has published its assessment of the Thai economy, saying that the pandemic has interrupted Thailand’s socioeconomic progress.

 

In its recent 163-page report, the OECD said Thailand has made impressive economic and social progress over the past decades, thanks to a strong policy framework, business friendly climate and attention to people’s well-being but, as in some other countries, the COVID-19 pandemic might send Thailand’s economy into a severe recession soon.

 

The economy will bounce back

 

Experts project that economic growth will contract sharply this year, but will bounce back in 2021, because Thai government has managed the outbreak well. The lockdown measures, however, have suppressed domestic demand and weak employment prospects weigh on the confidence of businesses and households. So, the recovery will be slow and will leave scars on long-term productivity.

 

Though macroeconomic policies have been supportive, the future course of the outbreak is still highly uncertain. The OECD suggests the Government should look in to investments that will strengthen the healthcare system and prepare for a second wave of COVID-19, should it happen, including increasing protection and testing capacities.

 

Vulnerable workers

 

The report focuses on informal workers, particularly women in Thailand, who are described as “vulnerable workers” with a lack of access to sufficient social protection or training opportunities. The report suggests that the Thai Government develop measures to up-skill and re-skill this group of workers, and make the post-outbreak economy more inclusive and productive.

 

The report concluded that the skill requirements of the labor market have not been assessed in a regular and systematic way. The government should develop tools to regularly assess the skills needed at the national, regional and sectoral level, to enable development of human resources with the appropriate skills.

 

Access to education

 

The OECD praises Thailand for expanding access to education. Participation in general education is high, especially at the primary level. Additionally, the number of out-of-school children has fallen since the turn of the century, but many children from the poorest families still do not attend school, and the exclusion rates are highest in rural areas.

 

International trade

 

The service sector has become important and essential to international trade. Statistically, the service sector in Thailand is more strictly regulated than in other Asian countries, so much so that it hinders expansion. The report suggests that Thailand should try to remove barriers, particularly regarding the international mobility of skilled workers, by expanding the coverage of the Smart Visa.

 

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is essential to expand the export of services. Restrictions on inward FDI have been eased in manufacturing, but not enough in the service sector.

 

Source: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-economy-expected-to-contract-in-2020-but-will-recover-next-year/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2020-10-07

 

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[ThailandRyan]

Read the article, and now I am waiting for the punch line.  As Homer Simpson would say after he read this just like I did;

"Experts project that economic growth will contract sharply this year, but will bounce back in 2021, because Thai government has managed the outbreak well. The lockdown measures, however, have suppressed domestic demand and weak employment prospects weigh on the confidence of businesses and households. So, the recovery will be slow and will leave scars on long-term productivity"

 

 

[YetAnother]

8 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, has published its assessment of the Thai economy, saying that the pandemic has interrupted Thailand’s socioeconomic progress.

really ! shocker , ya think ?

[AlfHuy]

As predicted by TAT

195 Trillion visitors in 2021, each spending 256 Million baht.

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, AlfHuy said:

As predicted by TAT

195 Trillion visitors in 2021, each spending 256 Million baht.

Cheers and hope the bars are full...lol

[elliss]

13 minutes ago, AlfHuy said:

As predicted by TAT

195 Trillion visitors in 2021, each spending 256 Million baht.

 Wow , you couldn't  make that one up , sure.

   Lady Bar , and cleaner , cashier . 

    Happy so much ,  sure..

 

[Flying Saucage]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

the OECD said Thailand has made impressive economic and social progress over the past decades, thanks to a strong policy framework, business friendly climate and attention to people’s well-being... 

This is just a confirmation about what Thais always say: "Farang don't understand Thailand " Thank you so much OECD for confirming this BS!

 

Don't say see that quite a lot of this perceived progress is perceived as it only due to a strong propaganda machinery? Don't say see that the generals ruling since 2014 are now destroying much of that what was build up in the decades before? Don't they see that this "strong policy framework" changes with every coup, with every new government? Don't they know that Thailand is the land of U-turns?

 

"Attention of people's well-being"!  LMAO, are they sure they talk about Thailand at all?
 

 

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

...because Thai government has managed the outbreak well.

Managed well by avoiding testing as much as possible, by faking the numbers, and by publishing these fake numbers to the world. This statement is only proof that the Thai officials still lie better then the officials in North Korea, who also claim to have zero local cases. This sentence is only proof that these "experts" at the OECD have no idea about Thailand and it's political system, it's ever lying government and it's tradition of creating biased narratives.

 

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

The OECD suggests the Government should look in to investments that will strengthen the healthcare system and prepare for a second wave of COVID-19

So, the government has managed the outbreak well, but still need to look into investments that will strengthen the healthcare system and prepare for a second wave. Is that not quite contradictory?

Most other countries have heavily invested in their healthcare system months ago already to be prepared for a second wave, whereas Thailand invests billions in toys for boys, submarines and huge building unnecessary projects, while the people struggle to survive the crisis economically.

 

 

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

The report focuses on informal workers, particularly women in Thailand ... [and] suggests that the Thai Government develop measures to up-skill and re-skill this group of workers, ...

Exactly this is what the Thai government never has done and never will do. They don't care about the people, especially about vulnarable people. They invest in their own skills only, on how to better and faster fill up their own pockets.

 

 

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

 The OECD praises Thailand for expanding access to education

Why? Thailand has been very good in brainwashing of its children all the time. How about teaching on the "correct" usage of social media? They started with recruits now already, soon they will "teach" this in schools. Wissanu is approaching the Eduction Ministry already today. Not much to praise here. Ask the students, OECD!

 

 

[ChaiyaTH]

Like how is the THB even being able to still be this strong in the first place... Recovery next year in their dreams.

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development or OECD, are the guys who buy all the girls in the bar lady drinks in Pattaya Soi 6 after the girls outside the bar say to them; have a seat "Hunsum man"

[JensenZ]

1 hour ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Like how is the THB even being able to still be this strong in the first place... Recovery next year in their dreams.

They live in a bubble. If people the world over cannot travel, if the world's economy is in recession (or depression), it doesn't matter how well they believe they have handled the pandemic, there's nothing they can do to kickstart tourism. Australia, for example, is already saying no international travel until 2022 or even 2023. The cost of international travel will skyrocket as airlines everywhere go broke, making a full tourism recovery a very long and slow process.

 

The title of this article is absurd: "The Thai economy in 2020 is EXPECTED to contract". I'd say everyone already knew it's a sure thing, and never in doubt. Expect a follow-up report in January stating the economy in 2020 actually did contract and these dingbats taking credit for their amazing predictive skills.

 

Let me make a prediction of my own - next year could easily be worse than 2020 as economies around the world start to collapse.

[JensenZ]

3 hours ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Like how is the THB even being able to still be this strong in the first place... Recovery next year in their dreams.

My first theory is the Thai government has a very tight fiscal policy - choosing not to bail out its citizens as they are doing in many Western Nations - printing money like it's water... billions and trillions of dollars. Instead the PM begs the nation's wealthy to help him out. While in other nations the unemployed are queuing up for government cash handouts, the hard done by in Thailand grovel on the streets for free food, reducing them to not much more than hungry soi dogs.

 

End result, the Thai baht will not be diluted by money printing (aka quantitative easing), and hold its value and increase in value as the money printing destroys other currencies. The only way to lower its value if the high value affects exporting profits too much is for a government devaluation.

 

Anyway, that's my theory. I would be happy to hear others.

[Grumpy John]

The economy in this farming village where I live is holding up reasonably well due to a good rice harvest.  No serf will go hungry tonight!

[ThailandRyan]

5 hours ago, JensenZ said:

End result, the Thai baht will not be diluted by money printing (aka quantitative easing), and hold its value and increase in value as the money printing destroys other currencies.

This is exactly as planned so that the rich do not loose money, if the baht were to tank then, well the rich would be seen as getting closer to the ground with the serfs.

[yellowboat]

Interesting how domestic trade was omitted.  A xenophobic government that is hated by young people in Thailand.  The kids seem to be the only ones who speak plainly about Thailand's issues. 

 

 

[alant]

Reads rather PC analysis, nt what I am seeing which borders on confusion, indecision  and reduced prospects for the general population.

[hotchilli]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thai economy expected to contract in 2020, but will recover next year

Keep polishing that crystal ball.

[pattayadgw]

BOUNCE BACK IN 21... bounce back may butt!!

[Isaan sailor]

Of course, not any mention of the overpriced Baht, and how it handicaps any chance for a full recovery.

[Grumpy John]

Excuse me for thinking factors outside LOS may have some small measure on the level of exports.  The reality is things will get worse before they get better.  I am pretty sure an upside down bell curve would be most likely to show the downward and later upward trend.  Only a miracle woulds see a big improvement in year 2021. 

[connda]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thai economy expected to contract in 2020, but will recover next year

Somebody is not paying attention.  

[Redline]

Thailand was faltering before the pandemic, and the quality of education continues to worsen.

 

It will get better, but it will not recover to where it was, and will continue its decline as it had before.  Without deep-seated changes, Thailand's success story will be in the history books.

[Isaan sailor]

Can Thailand’s exporters get government help to combat the high Baht?  I doubt it.  Can they convert to manufacturing products for domestic use?  Maybe, but could be costly to convert.  Feel sorry for the factory workers.