COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever

[cmarshall]

3 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

Say for instance Biden wins and Trump stands aside so on 21 January Biden is there and the virus remains rampant in the middle of winter. What kind of lockdown would they have to endure? If Melbourne has had 3 to 4 months of very draconian restrictions to control a few hundred cases what would USA have to be. I dont know I'm asking. Surely it would have to be longer. Would the people accept that? Some might but I get the feeling with the current events it might be a bigger disaster than that just endured? Even in Europe now one gets the feeling that the hastily cobbled together patchwork lockdowns aren't going to stop it.

 

I think they are just trying to slow it down a bit while they go for herd immunity. I dont want to argue about that, just what I think.

 

A strict lockdown for ten to twelve weeks should reduce the daily new case rate to a level low enough for effective contact tracing and isolation of positives.  That's assuming however, that the country has the capacity to do testing and effective contact tracing.  The US does not.  

 

China is essentially Covid-free.  People are back to work and the economy is growing again.  If the US fails to impose a strict and effective lockdown while they are ramping up testing and contact tracing, then Covid will just continue to ricochet around the country.  If immunity from infection is short-lived as with other coronaviruses, the epidemic could burst out again in full-force next year like new.  

 

Herd immunity is a concept that applies to vaccination programs and has never been produced just by infection.  

[FarFlungFalang]

20 hours ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Yeah you can tell in the news tonight people have really had enough. They got a whole lot of test results late in the day. No cases. I'll bet that it will be open in a couple of days. 

Still say one over cautious premier doesn't mean lockdowns don't work. He stuffed up the quarantine too.

The other states got it right. I would be seriously p*ssed off tonight if I had a shop or other closed business.

Hope your cows are doing good. 

Yes lockdown do drive down infections but when they are lifted then the infections come back.Places that keep the infections very low will have to keep their restrictions,namely closed borders and quarantines,in place until the virus is eradicated from the entire planet.I've often asked if the same restrictions will be enforced for the flu?

The cows are doing well the bung leg has healed up.

 

[FarFlungFalang]

21 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Herd immunity is a concept that applies to vaccination programs and has never been produced just by infection. 

Vaccines have only been around for a short while and herd immunity has been the only option for as long as humans have been around even longer as long as there have been herds of animals infected by viruses.

[FarFlungFalang]

25 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

  If immunity from infection is short-lived as with other coronaviruses, the epidemic could burst out again in full-force next year like new.  

There have been studies that show immunity from coronaviruses lasting 17 years.

 

https://gulfnews.com/uae/how-long-does-immunity-to-sars-coronavirus-last-up-to-17-years-says-study-1.1597735244103

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

 

A strict lockdown for ten to twelve weeks should reduce the daily new case rate to a level low enough for effective contact tracing and isolation of positives.  That's assuming however, that the country has the capacity to do testing and effective contact tracing.  The US does not.  

 

China is essentially Covid-free.  People are back to work and the economy is growing again.  If the US fails to impose a strict and effective lockdown while they are ramping up testing and contact tracing, then Covid will just continue to ricochet around the country.  If immunity from infection is short-lived as with other coronaviruses, the epidemic could burst out again in full-force next year like new.  

 

Herd immunity is a concept that applies to vaccination programs and has never been produced just by infection.  

Joking, right? NZ locked down for about 4 weeks and it's stuffed the economy to a certain extent- the debt caused by supporting the enforced jobless is horrendous. I can't even begin to imagine how disastrous 12 weeks would be. I'm pretty sure most would have rebelled by about 6 weeks.

[cmarshall]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Joking, right? NZ locked down for about 4 weeks and it's stuffed the economy to a certain extent- the debt caused by supporting the enforced jobless is horrendous. I can't even begin to imagine how disastrous 12 weeks would be. I'm pretty sure most would have rebelled by about 6 weeks.

Which is worse: 12 weeks of total, expensive shutdown or the current, out-of-control pandemic without end?

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, cmarshall said:

Which is worse: 12 weeks of total, expensive shutdown or the current, out-of-control pandemic without end?

Nothing, IMO is without end. Corona epidemic will probably end one way or another just like the previous ones that weakened and didn't even have a vaccine. Even the Spanish flu ended and there was no vaccine for that either.

That's not to say that it will be eliminated- it will, IMO, be like the flu.

 

Poverty caused by lockdowns might cause more disaster than the virus.

 

[cmarshall]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Nothing, IMO is without end. Corona epidemic will probably end one way or another just like the previous ones that weakened and didn't even have a vaccine. Even the Spanish flu ended and there was no vaccine for that either.

That's not to say that it will be eliminated- it will, IMO, be like the flu.

 

Poverty caused by lockdowns might cause more disaster than the virus.

 

So, fine.  The Spanish Flu last from Feb. 1918 to April 1920.  So, which is worse 12 weeks of expensive, total shutdown or another 14 months of the current, out-of-control pandemic, which also has a high economic cost?

 

China is Covid-free, including Wuhan.  The Wuhan lockdown lasted from Feb. 2 until April 8.  In 8 to 12 weeks life in the US could be normal or the death rate and economic costs could continue as they are right now.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, cmarshall said:

So, fine.  The Spanish Flu last from Feb. 1918 to April 1920.  So, which is worse 12 weeks of expensive, total shutdown or another 14 months of the current, out-of-control pandemic, which also has a high economic cost?

 

China is Covid-free, including Wuhan.  The Wuhan lockdown lasted from Feb. 2 until April 8.  In 8 to 12 weeks life in the US could be normal or the death rate and economic costs could continue as they are right now.

 

 

You assume populations would accept 12 weeks- I think they would rebel. I hope we don't have to find out if I'm correct.

Are you unaware of the demonstrations against lockdowns? Google has the information.

[cmarshall]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You assume populations would accept 12 weeks- I think they would rebel. I hope we don't have to find out if I'm correct.

Are you unaware of the demonstrations against lockdowns? Google has the information.

Most would.  Mask-wearing is overwhelmingly supported.  For the rest, that is what the National Guard is for.

[FarFlungFalang]

30 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

So, fine.  The Spanish Flu last from Feb. 1918 to April 1920.  So, which is worse 12 weeks of expensive, total shutdown or another 14 months of the current, out-of-control pandemic, which also has a high economic cost?

 

China is Covid-free, including Wuhan.  The Wuhan lockdown lasted from Feb. 2 until April 8.  In 8 to 12 weeks life in the US could be normal or the death rate and economic costs could continue as they are right now.

 

 

China is still locked down for international travel and is not covid free they still have cases everyday.The Spanish flu didn't have such rapid travel as we do now so that's not a very good comparison.Good luck in trying to get the whole world to shut down for 12 weeks without anybody leaving their homes,imagine how many people die around the world from natural causes in 12 weeks what do you do with the thousands of dead bodies during a twelve week lockdown?It's just not feasible to do a total lockdown for something no deadlier than the flu.

Edited October 26, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[cmarshall]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

China is still locked down for international travel and is not covid free they still have cases everyday.The Spanish flu didn't have such rapid travel as we do now so that's not a very good comparison.Good luck in trying to get the whole world to shut down for 12 weeks without anybody leaving their homes,imagine how many people die around the world from natural causes in 12 weeks what do you do with the thousands of dead bodies during a twelve week lockdown?It's just not feasible to do a total lockdown for something no deadlier than the flu.

 

I was considering the US, not the whole world, but if one-by-one the governments lockdown for up to 12 weeks, then the epidemic can be licked even without a vaccine.  The truculently anti-science governments like the UK and Brazil will be left to themselves.

[Bluetongue]

Been watching Singapore for a while. Most of the regular population, very compliant, very low average infection rate. 300k dorm workers of whom more than 1/6 were confirmed to have the infection. However this mass testing was carried out between May and August, ie well after it started. They are not sure how many might have been asympotomatic and not tested, or had recovered by the time of the tests, but it would be some but not in the 5 to 10 times range as elsewhere. Serological tests are required to determine this. But herd immunity could not be obtained according to Professor Cook unless about half of them had it. He said that more than a month ago, and was ruling it out at that time. Since then confirmed rates have dropped right down again but I haven't seen the serological test results. I'm not an expert, however this is interesting as a large scale testing has occurred of a particular mostly young and healthy and separate population, only 28 deaths out of 57k cases in Singapore, 95% of which were dorm workers. 

[balo]

I doubt a big nation like China is COVID-19 free. They will do their best to to hide any outbreaks to avoid more negative media attention.  

[paulikens]

On 10/16/2020 at 11:43 AM, vandeventer said:

With all these vaccines coming out and the great meds. that Trump took, this covid-19 should be history in 6 months or sooner. It's the covid-20 that worries me. I hope the new tourist won't be bringing it with them.

well they havent got long  for covid 20 to come in there's only 2 months left of 2020

[sezze]

*Deleted post edited out*

 

It is not about the deaths , the deaths are clearly visible and hard numbers . It is about taking care of everybody in need . When hospitals are overrun , normal treatments cannot take place , even your broken leg from falling down a stair , sorry , hospital is full .  You need cancer treatment , sorry hospital is full , you baby got high fever , sorry no bed or doctor available .

The deaths are the ones we try to prevent , but yes basically we all die . We try to save the people ( at least , thats what normal people do ) , when they are in need of medical attention , and when they cannot have their normal visit , more deaths are counted which could be saved easy when having normal care .

[Jeffr2]

6 hours ago, sezze said:

It is not about the deaths , the deaths are clearly visible and hard numbers . It is about taking care of everybody in need . When hospitals are overrun , normal treatments cannot take place , even your broken leg from falling down a stair , sorry , hospital is full .  You need cancer treatment , sorry hospital is full , you baby got high fever , sorry no bed or doctor available .

The deaths are the ones we try to prevent , but yes basically we all die . We try to save the people ( at least , thats what normal people do ) , when they are in need of medical attention , and when they cannot have their normal visit , more deaths are counted which could be saved easy when having normal care .

Don't waste your time with that guy.  A covid denier and extremely selfish.

 

PatrickC: please don't quote my posts any more.  Put me on block, please.

[Scott]

Troll post removed.   Minimizing the effect of deaths is not going to be tolerated. 

 

[placnx]

On 10/26/2020 at 11:33 AM, cormanr7 said:

There seems to be a misconception that with some potential Covid vaccines on the horizon, all problems will be solved and we will be back 'at normal' in no time. Say that a vaccine has an efficacy of 66% (note that the FDA in the US only requires 50% vs a placebo group for potential approval). That would not seem too bad (even so, of those 300 passengers waving there immune passports while waiting for their flight, a 100 would be susceptible to covid infection and some might actually have it without displaying symptoms). BUT, there is a second major factor, that is the antivaxxers clique. Suppose only 50% wants to be vaccinated (a figure commonly quoted for the US as an example) then the actual proportion of the total population protected from COVID infection is only 33%. Maybe a little more as some of the other 66% may already have had it or have natural defenses.

This is separate from other complications such as most vaccines having to be administered twice with a three-to-four week interval and the possibility that a vaccine might only be  effective for a number of months (and it is clear now that some people do get re-infected whereas originally this was attributed to tests detecting 'dead' virus of parts thereof that continued to be shedded over long periods).

All this has nothing to do with scare mongering but merely suggests that there is no easy way out and Covid-19 will not magically disappear. Nevertheless, life has to go on and I do not envy those that have to make critical decisions.

On the issue of travel I posted in the middle of page 1 of this link:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1182111-after-folks-get-the-vaccine-what-will-happen-re-inter-travel-quarantine/

My post concerns the design and use of a WHO QR card along with various testing technologies.

 

We need to have an new WHO card plus rapid antigen testing at check-in to screen. Assuming that passengers will be required to be vaccinated to travel internationally, we may still have to screen for Covid. The standards as to which passengers would need to be screened would be up to the destination country. Some vaccines might be questionable or the vaccinations possibly no longer protective, etc, etc.

 

Herd immunity outside of a vaccination program is bogus. The Great Barrington Declaration herd immunity proposal is associated with a right-wing think tank with White House connections. It has been strongly refuted in The Lancet.

[sezze]

3 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

You do realise that lockdowns and fear of covid created by this hysteria that people spread on Twitter and forums like this is leading to people NOT checking for cancers, right?

 

So many people are going to die of undiagnosed cancers because of this hysteria. But hey, let's forget about them. Let's just run around screaming about the virus.

Might be yes , but what is better ?

France got a lockdown , Belgium got soft lockdown ( probably going full lockdown tomorrow , hospitals are now on their last set of extra procedures to try to take care people ) , Germany , Netherlands , .... all very big numbers right now . Denying it won't help at all . If you are in Thailand , you certainly are in a better place , no need to worry , can read the news and say , ohhh it is all fake . It is a luxury position , viewing the fight from the outside , instead of being in the arena yourself .

There is no need for hysteria , there is need for realism , not Twitter or Facebook . The situation is bad but telling people the truth is the best thing you can do . If you need to get something checked , do so , doctors will tell you if it is possible at this time or not .

I want to go Thailand , but this isn't the time , even if the borders are open . Denying the virus , or conspiracy theory from 1 kind or another wont help anybody , and could only make things worse .

[sezze]

Again , the lockdowns are there so the system still can work . When too many people get sick , the hospitals can't function anymore ( also for cancer and all other treatments ! ) , but it isnt only the hospitals , it is in many workplaces the case , too many people get sick at the same time , the system collapses . Lockdowns , make it possible to lower the infection rate , so hospitals can go treating all people , covid and non covid patients .

I heard today that hospitals in Belgium ( 1 or more , idk ) 58% of ICU beds is now taken by covid patients . If you let it run more , that number gets higher and higher , on daily basis , what you gonna do after that ? 20% of hospital staff is already sick now , and they are asking if possible they should come to work , in a covid area , since they are infected anyway .

It isnt so difficult to understand , when system collapses due to workload , nobody can have the care they need anymore , no broken legs , no cancers , no flu , no covid , nobody .

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

I am selfish for wanting to protect cancer patients who are being denied care because of covid obsession?

 

Ok then, if you say so.

 

We are ruining so many lives with this covid obsession. So many unemployed. So much domestic violence. So many undiagnosed cancers. So many vulnerable people being locked at home.

 

But hey, let's forget about them, because you want to save your grannie, and her life is more important than anyone else. 

 

Pro lockdown folks only care about themselves and are the ones who are really selfish.

 

Go and speak to people who have been made unemployed by lockdowns, to women who have been beaten by abusive husbands, by people with mental health problems who are suffering, or to people who have had out of control cancers spread while in lockdown. Go and speak to them and tell them your grannie is more important than them.

Excellent post, IMO.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, sezze said:

and they are asking if possible they should come to work , in a covid area , since they are infected anyway .

Sooooo, they can't be too sick if they can come and work in a hospital. That's really hard work and no one that is impaired physically or mentally would be safe ( for the patients ) IMO working in a ward. Giving the wrong medication because one was mentally impaired could cause more problems for a patient than the disease, and who would be liable in court- the nurse or the management for allowing them to work impaired?

[Fat is a type of crazy]

7 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

I am selfish for wanting to protect cancer patients who are being denied care because of covid obsession?

 

Ok then, if you say so.

 

We are ruining so many lives with this covid obsession. So many unemployed. So much domestic violence. So many undiagnosed cancers. So many vulnerable people being locked at home.

 

But hey, let's forget about them, because you want to save your grannie, and her life is more important than anyone else. 

 

Pro lockdown folks only care about themselves and are the ones who are really selfish.

 

Go and speak to people who have been made unemployed by lockdowns, to women who have been beaten by abusive husbands, by people with mental health problems who are suffering, or to people who have had out of control cancers spread while in lockdown. Go and speak to them and tell them your grannie is more important than them.

Not sure about other places, but in Melbourne there were many messages about getting checks for any signs of other illnesses. The lockdown did not stop you getting health checks and there was wide access to telehealth services.

There was also an awareness of possible domestic violence related issues and new services were put in place to deal with it.

I just think you are underestimating the amount of deaths, and the pressure on the hospitals, if your approach was taken. I think generalisations about pro lock down people too don't help.

That is not to say that there will not be long term negative affects of the lockdown for youth, the unemployed, maybe other health issues as you say. 

It is nice now in Melbourne to be free to live my life to some degree and the whole of Australia and New Zealand have few cases. The future looks bright as compared to other places such as the United States and parts of Europe.

It could be strongly argued that the Melbourne lockdown when a bit too long. 

 

It may be that if people just took social distancing and masks seriously a full lockdown may have not been required. But, people being people, many don't follow the rules and this leads to harsh lockdowns.

Neither path is perfect but on balance I think sometimes lockdowns are an appropriate tool.

 

[Jeffr2]

13 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

You do realise that lockdowns and fear of covid created by this hysteria that people spread on Twitter and forums like this is leading to people NOT checking for cancers, right?

 

So many people are going to die of undiagnosed cancers because of this hysteria. But hey, let's forget about them. Let's just run around screaming about the virus.

You do realize that people are dying, by the thousands, every day?  And getting sick by the 10's of thousands, every day?  Seems you've entirely missed this.  It's not hysteria.  Sad some just run around screaming it's not really that bad.  Guaranteed more are dying from CV19 than are from undiagnosed cancers.

 

You're still a covid denier, sadly.

[Jeffr2]

7 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

I am selfish for wanting to protect cancer patients who are being denied care because of covid obsession?

 

Ok then, if you say so.

 

We are ruining so many lives with this covid obsession. So many unemployed. So much domestic violence. So many undiagnosed cancers. So many vulnerable people being locked at home.

 

But hey, let's forget about them, because you want to save your grannie, and her life is more important than anyone else. 

 

Pro lockdown folks only care about themselves and are the ones who are really selfish.

 

Go and speak to people who have been made unemployed by lockdowns, to women who have been beaten by abusive husbands, by people with mental health problems who are suffering, or to people who have had out of control cancers spread while in lockdown. Go and speak to them and tell them your grannie is more important than them.

Covid obsession?  Impossible to ignore this pandemic that's killing thousands every day.  Though some try, like you.

 

Blame the politicians.  If countries here in Asia can tackle this virus, then so can countries in the West.  Sadly, that's not happening because of covid deniers like you.  And yes, that's called being selfish.

 

You harp on about lockdowns.  They are only one part of the program to deal with this virus.  And a necessary one.  Sadly, the other parts aren't being enforced.  Thus, the virus is raging.  Wear a mask, social distance, wash your hands often, and 80% of the deaths and infections will go away.  That's been proven.  Then?  No lockdowns.  Except when there's a flare up.

 

Bizarre.

[Tounge Thaied]

I would add to the discussion... but I'm not allowed. No this is not a joke.

[polpott]

7 hours ago, PatrickC said:

The reality is, lockdowns kill people. Over coming years, just as many will die of undiagnosed cancers as would have died of covid.

 

Being locked indoors and not exposed to pathogens will also lower our future ability to fight other illnesses. No doubt future flu seasons will wipe many more out as a result.

All a complete urban myth, perpetrated by the Covid denyers.  Either post some solid stats or stop scaremongering, which I believe, currently, is against forum rules.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, polpott said:

All a complete urban myth, perpetrated by the Covid denyers.  Either post some solid stats or stop scaremongering, which I believe, currently, is against forum rules.

Report posts like that.  I'm sure the mods appreciate the help cracking down on stuff like this.

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-up-to-50-000-cancers-going-undiagnosed-due-to-covid-report-finds-12117467

 

Report me for telling the truth about undiagnosed cancers? A truth which has been widely reported? Want to silence me for pointing out that lockdowns kill? Ok then.

Easy answer.  Lockdown, mask up, social distance, abide by the recommendations of health experts, and we'll tackle this.  Covid is turning the world upside down and we won't be back to normal for years.

 

But don't claim hysteria due to covid.  That's denying the severity of the issue.

 

45 million KNOWN cases.  Almost 1.2 million KNOWN deaths.  And as know, these numbers are low.  And the virus isn't done with us yet.  Impossible to deny this.