Brexit brinkmanship: Johnson says prepare for no-deal, cancels trade talks

[dimitriv]

51 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Ha ha, your idea that the UK is the weakest party doesn't quite ring true now.

 

 

<a lot of populist talk deleted>

 

Please look at the FACTS...

 

Look of the % of UK exports going to the EU ->  43%

Look at the % of EU exports going to the UK -> 6.2%

 

A complete blockade of trade will be a complete shutdown of the UK economy. 6.2% you can survive, 43% not.

 

The UK has no cards. They must be even happy that the EU is willing to waste their time talking to them.

 

The latest rumors I heard about a no-deal Brexit are also bad for the UK. The EU is looking at financial services now performed in London. They want to refuse companies in the financial services from the UK (banks) to do business in the EU, a condition for doing business in the EU will be that they must have their headquarters in the EU. This is probably the end of London as a financial hub.

 

What will be left of the UK?  

 

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by dimitriv

[Hi from France]

22 minutes ago, dimitriv said:

 

Please look at the FACTS...

 

Look of the % of UK exports going to the EU ->  43%

Look at the % of EU exports going to the UK -> 6.2%

 

A complete blockade

.. no, there will be no blockade, only a "pressure" when the UK loose access to UE market and many businesses like haulage cannot operate properly.

 

Brexit is a loose-loose, and even the best deal now will be very limited. But in the likely case there is a no deal in the coming weeks the UK will loose 7-8 times what the UE looses, so we won't have to wait long before the UK is welcomed back to the negociating table.

 

The UE will not take the responsibility to quit negociations, it will patiently wait and tell "when you're ready we are"

 

Quote

financial services now performed in London.

most financial services will stay in London, though the pressure on "passporting" will  increase and we will see current transfers to Dublin, Amsterdam, Berlin and Paris intensify, not to mention Singapore, Shangai and New-York

 

But in the short term at least, the City will remain the top financial center of the world

Edited October 18, 2020 by Hi from France

[stretch5163]

On 10/17/2020 at 4:09 AM, allane said:

Why should the EU negotiate with an ex-member, that voted to leave ? They should let Britain stand outside in the cold for twenty or twenty-five years. Then maybe let them back in, if they ask nicely.

A lot of people in Britain would glady do that and say F off to the EU.

 

And you can stick your invite to let us back in where the sun dont shine. 

 

Britain managed well without the EU and it will do so again. More countries in the EU are suffering and with the amount Britain invests the big boys cant afford to let them go.

[Hi from France]

doublon, sorry
 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Hi from France

[stretch5163]

On 10/17/2020 at 4:16 AM, dimitriv said:

 

Exactly. Close the tunnel, cancel all flights, nothing in, and nothing out. Let them trade with the US and Australia, because it seems that's the only thing that will make them happy.

 

I am so tired of the UK.

 

 

My God someone with common sense and i applaud you. We never had this many problems when we werent in the EU before and this would be the best solution.

 

Only thing i would change is f*** closing the tunnel blow it up cut all ties.

 

Why are you tired of the UK its not as if your from the UK and its not as if you have to give a toss about what the UK does.

 

Does it affect you in any way or are you just retarded in saying your tired of the UK. Who really gives a toss if your tired of the UK.....lol clown.

 

Out of curiosity where you from then ? Probably Russia or the Eastern Block ? Humour me with an answer lol.

[dimitriv]

9 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

But in the short term at least, the City will remain the top financial center of the world

 

Do you think so?  If a company in the financial services industry must choose between the UK as a home market, or the EU at their home market the choice will be simple and fast.

 

 

[Hi from France]

10 minutes ago, stretch5163 said:

A lot of people in Britain would glady do that and say F off to the EU.

I think we know that ????

 

The question now is to settle on a new mutually beneficial system, though limited. Now, insults do not help negociations

 

Though Boris Johnson calling us ‘little turds’ was duly noted.

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Hi from France

[Loiner]

25 minutes ago, dimitriv said:

 

Please look at the FACTS...

 

Look of the % of UK exports going to the EU ->  43%

Look at the % of EU exports going to the UK -> 6.2%

 

A complete blockade of trade will be a complete shutdown of the UK economy. 6.2% you can survive, 43% not.

 

The UK has no cards. They must be even happy that the EU is willing to waste their time talking to them.

 

The latest rumors I heard about a no-deal Brexit are also bad for the UK. The EU is looking at financial services now performed in London. They want to refuse companies in the financial services from the UK (banks) to do business in the EU, a condition for doing business in the EU will be that they must have their headquarters in the EU. This is probably the end of London as a financial hub.

 

What will be left of the UK?  

Your ‘facts’ mean nothing. Your forecasts are based on sour grapes and mean even less. Even your French mate agrees there will be no blockade. (Except maybe by your fish thieves.)

When you have cooled down over the UK audacity to stick it up Macron and Barnier have another go. 

[dimitriv]

6 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Your forecasts

 

These are not forecasts. These are FACTS, from last years. 

[Hi from France]

14 minutes ago, Loiner said:

 your fish thieves

the "fish thieves" thing does not help: the 200 miles zone that the UK claims today was created long after the UK joined the EU (joined 1973, -- 200 miles zone : 1982). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone

 

there is no "reclaim our fish" it's a "claim" not a "reclaim". So it's a bit more complicated than "fish thieves", not just considering these people had their families fishing here for centuries.

 

 

... not that it is not legitimate to claim the fish today, but what was lost on cod for the UK was clearly won many times over in other fields.

 

 

 

If you look at the deal  on the table it is very attractive for the UK already :

Quote

Barnier told ministers it was important to put the issue of access to British waters in perspective. The UK was asking to in effect stay part of the EU’s energy single market, the economic value of which was “five times” that of fish, he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/13/brexit-michel-barnier-mocks-boris-johnson-third-deadline-on-talks

Edited October 18, 2020 by Hi from France

[dimitriv]

20 minutes ago, stretch5163 said:

Does it affect you in any way or are you just retarded in saying your tired of the UK.

 

No, I am tired of the UK and their populism. 

 

In my home country they try not to broadcast television interviews with Trump, because most people will zapp away and continue looking at another channel. This costs money, it's a waste of money for television channels. Less viewers, less income from advertisements. 

 

Same happens now with Johnson. Most people put him on par with Trump. Simply disgusting.

 

I would really prefer to block the UK completely. Nothing in, nothing out. Cancel all flights, forbid any financial transactions. Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by dimitriv

[RayC]

27 minutes ago, dimitriv said:

 

Do you think so?  If a company in the financial services industry must choose between the UK as a home market, or the EU at their home market the choice will be simple and fast.

 

 

Regarding financial services, in the short term the EU needs the UK e.g. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/2de23b12-5f77-44db-8e29-c3999491b2e7

 

Imo in the medium and longer term, EU member states will further develop their own (financial) services infrastructure, and will provide stronger competition to London.

[Tofer]

5 hours ago, Matzzon said:

Exactly! It´s hilarious that the buffon they have as a prime minister can´t explain to his people that they can´t decide to leave and then demand to have all the exclusive rights at the same time as a trade deal on their demands.

Utter nonsense!

Come on then, put some substance behind your spurious claims. What exactly is it that the UK are "demanding as exclusive rights" and what exactly is it the UK are demanding in terms of a special trade deal??

[melvinmelvin]

39 minutes ago, dimitriv said:

 

No, I am tired of the UK and their populism. 

 

In my home country they try not to broadcast television interviews with Trump, because most people will zapp away and continue looking at another channel. This costs money, it's a waste of money for television channels. Less viewers, less income from advertisements. 

 

Same happens now with Johnson. Most people put him on par with Trump. Simply disgusting.

 

Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.

39 minutes ago, dimitriv said:

 

No, I am tired of the UK and their populism. 

 

In my home country they try not to broadcast television interviews with Trump, because most people will zapp away and continue looking at another channel. This costs money, it's a waste of money for television channels. Less viewers, less income from advertisements. 

 

Same happens now with Johnson. Most people put him on par with Trump. Simply disgusting.

 

I would really prefer to block the UK completely. Nothing in, nothing out. Cancel all flights, forbid any financial transactions. Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.

 

 

 

Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.

 

 

 

 

YOU SAY: Let them live on their island and trade with other countries.

 

Sure. But isn't that just the agreed political aim in UK? To continue on foggy islands

while trading with any country that fancy, exchanging some satang for a ware a or two . .

 

 

[7by7]

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

<snip>

The EU's treaty made in bad faith carries nothing worthy of respect. 

Johnson has proven he signed the WA in bad faith, for sure.

 

In what way have the EU done so?

[Matzzon]

35 minutes ago, Tofer said:

Utter nonsense!

Come on then, put some substance behind your spurious claims. What exactly is it that the UK are "demanding as exclusive rights" and what exactly is it the UK are demanding in terms of a special trade deal??

If you are leaving the EU, just do that. If you wish a trade deal with the EU, then you will have to meet their demands. You wanted out, and now you have that result. Deal with it, and stop the whining. Go without a deal if you not want to meet the demands. Who do you think suffer most? UK or EU?

[RayC]

47 minutes ago, Tofer said:

What exactly is it that the UK are "demanding as exclusive rights" and what exactly is it the UK are demanding in terms of a special trade deal??

Access to the single market without agreeing to conditions regarding state aid and a mechanism to resolve disputes.

[Tofer]

6 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

If you are leaving the EU, just do that. If you wish a trade deal with the EU, then you will have to meet their demands. You wanted out, and now you have that result. Deal with it, and stop the whining. Go without a deal if you not want to meet the demands. Who do you think suffer most? UK or EU?

Just as I thought, no substance, just a load of woffle.

 

There's no "if" about it, we've left.

 

The EU demands are ludicrous, intentionally I might add.

[scammed]

On 10/17/2020 at 7:43 AM, BritManToo said:

We've had similar problems with the Dutch and Portuguese .......

Let's face it, they were never really our friends and the UK should never have entered into any deals with them. 

i read somewhere uk $ portugal has the longest alliance in the world

[Tofer]

1 minute ago, RayC said:

Access to the single market without agreeing to conditions regarding state aid and a mechanism to resolve disputes.

You mean the state aid conditions that the EU saw fit to conveniently ignore with Airbus!

 

The EU are not looking for agreement on conditions, they are insisting on control of the mechanisms and EUCJ jurisdiction. Not quite the same thing as you assert....

[Lormak]

The British public voted overwhelming to leave the corrupt and evil EU. Out means out! We want a clean no-deal Brexit!

Companies have had years to prepare for Brexit. Any difficulties are self-inflicted. Most companies speaking in favour of the EU are thinking only of their own financial interests and not those of the Great British Public!!!

[JonnyF]

17 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

If you are leaving the EU, just do that. If you wish a trade deal with the EU, then you will have to meet their demands. You wanted out, and now you have that result. Deal with it, and stop the whining. Go without a deal if you not want to meet the demands. Who do you think suffer most? UK or EU?

Yes, we wont meet the demands so it's no deal hopefully. I said last year we should go no deal without the WA and I've been proved correct again. Signing the WA was a mistake, it was a trick by the EU to extract money on the promise of an FTA that they weren't really interested in signing. 

 

The EU are shysters. Liars. Conmen. I am delighted to be leaving their corrupt protectionist racket. Quite frankly, feckem.

[elliss]

On 10/17/2020 at 9:58 AM, Pedrogaz said:

Hang in Boris. Screw trade deals. Just make sure our fisheries are safe from marauding French, Spanish and Portuguese trawlers.

 

     Just make sure , the lower caste in the UK , on benefits / zero hours .

     Can still purchases  affordable  imported food , from the EU,,  Aldi and Lidl .

  

Edited October 18, 2020 by elliss

[nauseus]

38 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

If you are leaving the EU, just do that. If you wish a trade deal with the EU, then you will have to meet their demands. You wanted out, and now you have that result. Deal with it, and stop the whining. Go without a deal if you not want to meet the demands. Who do you think suffer most? UK or EU?

Cadburys Smash OD?

[Matzzon]

25 minutes ago, Tofer said:

Just as I thought, no substance, just a load of woffle.

 

There's no "if" about it, we've left.

 

The EU demands are ludicrous, intentionally I might add.

What do you mean with no substance? As you make your bed.......and so on. Yes, you have left.

So, did you think that the EU needs you, and you would be treated like kings and be welcomed without demands? Hilarious! Just live with your decision and stop complain!

 

That´s your bed at the moment. Not so soft, and not so comfortable, right?

[Matzzon]

16 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Yes, we wont meet the demands so it's no deal hopefully. I said last year we should go no deal without the WA and I've been proved correct again. Signing the WA was a mistake, it was a trick by the EU to extract money on the promise of an FTA that they weren't really interested in signing. 

 

The EU are shysters. Liars. Conmen. I am delighted to be leaving their corrupt protectionist racket. Quite frankly, feckem.

Great! And the UK is always fair...... 

[Matzzon]

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Cadburys Smash OD?

No! Just your FAT reality.

[Hi from France]

1 hour ago, Lormak said:

the corrupt and evil EU.

This is not star wars ???? and fortunately when the EU signs a deal it's "my word is my bond"

 

beside fishing and fair competition, the main hurdle now for the deal is how to include in the deal a very likely outcome: the brits will again sign ... and then simply renege on the parts of the deal they do not like.

 

I think even for experienced UE negociators, it's a headache.

 

I suppose there is a solution in game theory? 

One one side, sooner or later, a deal is inevitable, but what kind of deal can you make with a lying party?

 

 

 

and as for "falling back on WTO rules" as a simple solution to this conundrum, there are no garanties that the UK will respect them either anyway.

 

.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Hi from France

[Hi from France]

note that even before the spectacular BJ signing the WA and them betraying the signature of the UK, there had been another very big issue with trusting the UK in trade talks.

 

Brussels demands UK pay €2.7 billion in lost customs duties
Customs fraud case is a massive embarrassment to the UK as it seeks to cast itself as reliable partner in EU trade talks.

Quote

The European Commission today formally demanded that the U.K. pay €2.7 billion into the EU budget after investigators found that British authorities allowed a massive Chinese fraud network to evade paying the appropriate level of customs duties.

 

(..)

 

Once the goods entered the U.K., they were then trafficked to members of criminal networks across Europe. The fraudsters then set up “phoenix” companies to take delivery of the goods, according to a joint OLAF-French investigation. These businesses would then disappear, only to be reborn elsewhere.

 

This strategy enabled the companies to avoid paying VAT because the EU allows importers to pay VAT in the country where they intend to sell it, and not at their port of entry.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-demands-uk-pay-e2-7-billion-in-lost-customs-duties/

 

 

so 1/there can be no no-deal, wether it's the "bare bones" WTO deal or something better but 2/the signature of the UK is very unreliable.

 

 

How does the UE deal with that? I wonder.

.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Hi from France

[Loiner]

3 hours ago, 7by7 said:

Johnson has proven he signed the WA in bad faith, for sure.

 

In what way have the EU done so?

EU threat to impose tariffs between mainland and Northern Island, or even blockade foodstuffs?